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Forex Analysis by LiteForex

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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:41 pm

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: prices are decreasing

Current trend

This week, oil prices continued to fall. The market is under correction due to a revitalization of US shale oil producers.
According to Baker Hughes, last week number of rigs in the USA grew again by 6 units to 765, and in Canada, the number reached 234 units. Shale oil is expanding its presence in the world markets, objectively reducing OPEC+ Agreement effectiveness. According to Bloomberg, in December the supplies from the USA to UAE reached the level of 700 000 barrel. United Emirates produce millions of barrels of “black gold” itself, but shale oil is cheaper and cheaper in processing.
Yesterday’s API Crude Oil Stocks change release unexpectedly reflected the decrease of raw oil by 1.050 million barrel and gas resources by 0.227 million barrel, however, it supported the price slightly. The investors are focused on the EIA Crude Oil Stocks change publication; the growth by 3.189 million barrel is expected.

Support and resistance

The price has consolidated within the range of 66.40–67.18 (Murray [1/8] and [2/8]). The breakdown of its lower border will let the price fall to the levels of 65.62 (Murray [0/8]) and 64.84 (Murray [–1/8]), the breakout of the upper border will let it grow to the levels of 67.96 (Murray [3/8]) and 69.53 (Murray [4/8]). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Stochastic is reversing downwards, MACD histogram is decreasing in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 67.18, 67.96, 68.75.
Support levels: 66.40, 65.62, 64.84.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 66.40 with the targets at 65.62, 64.84 and stop loss 66.70.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 67.18 with the targets at 67.96, 68.75 and stop loss 66.90.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 102
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:07 pm

LiteForex: NZD/USD: the downward tendency remains

Current trend

NZD consolidated in a downward trend against USD after a long-term growth in the second half of 2017.
The pair is rapidly declining amid growing investment appeal to the oversold USD. It is worth noting that NZD also loses support from investors the more after each new level of support is taken over. Yesterday, the pair reached a new local minimum for the last month, the mark of 0.7180, after which it moved to the stage of an upward correction.
Today, one should not expect high volatility in the pair due to the lack of important macroeconomic data.

Support and resistance

After a significant fall in the pair in February, one can safely say about a break in the uptrend and the emergence of a downward trend. At the moment, one can determine the borders of the descending channel and open short positions on the peaks of upward corrections. In the medium term, the pair is expected to decline to key support levels of 0.7130, 0.7110.
Technical indicators changed direction on H4 chart: MACD indicates the continuation of the pair's decline, the volume of short positions remains high, and Bollinger Bands are directed downwards.
Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7180, 0.7130, 0.7110, 0.7070, 0.7000, 0.6930, 0.6800.
Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7275, 0.7290, 0.7310, 0.7335, 0.7370, 0.7400.

Trading tips

In this situation, short positions may be opened from the current level; pending orders can be opened from levels of 60.7250, 0.7275 with targets at 0.7130, 0.7110 and the stop-loss at 0.7275.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 102
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:59 pm

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: the upward correction can begin

Current trend

In the beginning of the week Brent price grew to the level of 64.00 but now returned to the area of 62.50 (Murray [0/8]). The market is under pressure of US shale oil producers, which can decrease in the nearest future due to the fall of oil prices to the levels, less profitable for production expanding (the area of 60.00–64.00). The possible decrease of shale oil sector activity is confirmed by recent Baker Hughes report. In the USA the oil rig number significantly increased (by 26 to 791) but in Canada, it is going down (by 13 to 221). US number can possibly decrease this week, which will cause the correction of the instrument.

Support and resistance

The technical picture reflects the possibility of growth. The price is near the strong support level of 62.50 on the border of Murray ([0/8]) range. If the price is set below it, the instrument can decrease to the levels of 60.93 (Murray [–1/8], Fibonacci correction 38.2%) and 59.37 (Murray [–2/8]). However, as Stochastic has reversed in the oversold area, the correction to the levels of 64.06 (Murray [1/8]) and 65.62 (Murray [2/8]) is possible.
Resistance levels: 64.06, 65.62, 67.12.
Support levels: 62.50, 60.93, 59.37.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 63.28 with the targets at 64.06, 65.62 and stop loss at around 62.20.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 62.00 with the targets at 60.93, 59.37 and stop loss at around 62.50.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 102
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:51 pm

LiteForex: EUR/USD: waiting for statistics

Current trend

This week the pair was growing and increased by 0.98%, reached the level of 1.2390.
Today the investors are waiting for a block of US statistics to be published, the key one is January CPI release, which is expected to be mixed and can cause great volatility in the market. The MoM index is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.3%, but the YoY one is supposed to decrease below the target level, from 2.1% to 1.9%, moreover, the core index can decrease from 1.8% to 1.7%. Earlier a number of FOMC members expressed concern about the insufficient inflation growth, which can lead to a slowing of interest rate growth. The recent correction of US stock market also affects the regulator negatively. However, the new head of Fed is optimistic: on Thursday, he stated that the regulator would monitor the situation but would keep the slight tightening of the monetary policy trend, as the slight normalization of the interest rate policy and a balance was developing.
Today the USD can be under pressure due to Q4 EU GDP release (the growth from 2.6% to 2.7% is expected) and US January Retail Sales data (can decrease from 0.4% to 0.2%).

Support and resistance

The price is around 1.2330 (Murray [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands). The further growth of the price, confirmed by Stochastic, which is pointed upwards, can develop to the levels of 1.2450 (Murray [6/8]) and 1.2500. The breakdown of 1.2330 will let the price return to last week lows at the area of 1.2200 (Murray [4/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.2300, 1.2450, 1.2500.
Support levels: 1.2330, 1.2270, 1.2200.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2300 with the targets at 1.2450, 1.2500 and stop loss at 1.2260.
Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.2330 with the targets at 1.2270, 1.2200 and stop loss at around 1.2360.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 102
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Fri Feb 16, 2018 1:14 pm

LiteForex: XAG/USD: Murrey analysis

On D1 chart, the price tests the bottom of the Murray channel at the level of 16.79 ([3/8]), strengthened by the descending middle line of Bollinger Bands. Its breakout and the continuation of the increase to the levels of 17.18 ([4/8]) and 17.57 ([5/8], upper Bollinger Bands) are possible, but a rollback to 16.40 ([2/8]), 16.00 ([1/8]) and 15.62 ([0/8]) marks is possible as well.
It should be noted that the indicators do not give a clear signal. Stochastic is close to the overbought zone, which is fraught with a reverse, and MACD histogram can go to the positive zone and form a buy signal in the near future.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 16.40 ([2/8]), 16.00 ([1/8]), 15.62 ([0/8]).
Resistance levels: 16.79 ([3/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), 17.18 ([4/8]), 17.57 ([5/8], the upper line of Bollinger Bands).

Trading tips

In this situation, buy positions should be opened only when the instrument is consolidated above the 16.79 mark from the level of 16.95 with targets of 17.18 and 17.57 and the stop-loss at 16.80. Short positions may be opened from the level of 16.65 with targets at 16.40, 16.00 and stop-loss at 16.78.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 102
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:18 pm

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Last week Brent prices grew to of the level 65.00, supported by the statement of Saudi Arabia Minister Khalid Al-Falih, who noted that OPEC and oil exporting countries should decrease the oil production further even after the market was balanced or the deficit appeared. The investors are also inspired by the news that OPEC and Russia are planning to continue the partnership after the end of OPEC+ Agreement.
The experts say that now in Saudi Arabia the acceptable level of the price is 70 USD per barrel instead of 60 due to the implementation of the large modernization program Vision 2030, which supposes diversification and decrease of the Saudi Arabian dependence from the oil sector. In particular, the state oil company Saudi Aramco will be gone IPO. However, the financial “airbag” for the reformation period is not formed yet.
Shale oil producers, as usual, has brought the main negative to the “black gold” market. Unexpectedly, US oil rig number has grown again (by 7 units to 798). The production is increasing, too, during the last week it went up to 10.271 million barrel per day, the next growth can cause another correction of the prices.

Support and resistance

The price is around 64.80 (Murray [3/8] H4, Fibonacci correction 23.6%) and can grow to the levels of 65.62 (Murray [2/8]) and 66.40 (Murray [5/8] H4, the middle line of Bollinger Bands). However, the consolidation of the price below the level of 64.00 (Murray [1/8]) can lead to the development of the downward correction to the levels of 62.50 (Murray [0/8]) and 60.93 (Murray [–1/8], Fibonacci correction 38.2%).
Resistance levels: 65.62, 66.40, 67.18.
Support levels: 64.00, 62.50, 60.93.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 65.10 with the targets at 65.62, 66.40 and stop loss around 64.80.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 64.00 with the target at 62.50 and stop loss around 64.40.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 102
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Tue Feb 20, 2018 1:49 pm

LiteForex: NZD/USD: Murray analysis

On the daily chart, the price is corrected downwards from the area of 0.7446 ([+2/8]) and can return into the borders of the main trading Murray range. In case of breakdown of the level of 0.7324 ([8/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) the price can decrease to the level of 0.7200 ([6/8], the lower border of Bollinger Bands), which is confirmed by Stochastic leaving the overbought area. In addition, MACD histogram has the sighs of divergence with the price chart. If the price is set above the level of 0.7446, the growth to the level of 0.7558 ([6/8] W1, the area of the last July highs).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.7446 ([+2/8]), 0.7568 ([6/8] W1).
Support levels: 0.7324 ([8/8]), 0.7200 ([6/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7342 with the target at 0.7200 and stop loss at around 0.7380.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 0.7446 with the target at 0.7568 and stop loss at around 0.7390.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 102
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:50 pm

LiteForex: GBP/USD: the growth of unemployment affect the pound negatively

Current trend

This week the pair was trading within the sideways channel of 1.4038–1.3916.
Today the instrument weakened to the lower border of the channel due to December growth of the UK unemployment level from 4.3% to 4.4%. Earlier the marked was hoping for soon stimulus decrease by the regulator. In January, UK CPI stayed on the same level 3.0% YoY, despite the expectations. This inspired the investors that Bank of England will have to increase the interest rate in the nearest future. However, the current state of the employment market can make the officials refrain from this step. Average Earnings including Bonus stayed on the same level of 2.5%, and Average Earnings excluding Bonus grew from 2.3% to 2.5%. In the evening BOE's Governor Carney speech can bring the volatility to the pair.
In the long term, the pound is under pressure of further UK and EU relationship. The parties are trying to bargain for concessions. On Friday, EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier in the conference in Munich stated that the current UK position excluded any preferences in the trading between UK and EU.

Support and resistance

The price is trading around the lower border of the trading range 1.3916 (Murray [4/8], the lower border of Bollinger Bands), which is key for “bears”. The breakdown will let the instrument reach the levels of 1.3793 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.3672 (Murray [0/8]). The breakout of the key level of 1.4038 can cause the growth to the levels of 1.4100 (Murray [7/8]) and 1.4160 (Murray [8/8]). Technical indicators reflect the possibility of decrease; Stochastic and Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards.
Resistance levels: 1.4038, 1.4100, 1.4160.
Support levels: 1.3916, 1.3793, 1.3672.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3916 with the targets at 1.3793, 1.3672 and stop loss 1.3960.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.4038 with the targets at 1.4100, 1.4160 and stop loss 1.3990.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 102
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

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