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Forex Analysis by LiteForex

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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:01 am

liteForex XAG/USD: silver prices returned to growth

Current trend

Silver prices updated local minimums since the beginning of August during trading last Friday, October 6, reacting to the release of a mixed report on the US labor market. Despite considerable reduction of the level of unemployment, the report was generally positive, confirming previous outlooks for the growth of the Fed's interest rates. However, the instrument failed to consolidate on new minimums, and by the moment of closing of the daily session the pair moved to the green zone with a considerable “bullish” advantage.
This dynamics was partially explained by the news about North Korea preparing a launch of a new ballistic missile able to reach the western coast of the USA. Moreover, the instrument was supported by technical factors of correction before the weekend.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the D1 chart demonstrate horizontal reversal. The price range is narrowing. MACD indicator is growing preserving a strong buy signal (MACD histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, quickly approaching maximum values.
Resistance levels: 17.00, 17.20, 17.35, 17.53.
Support levels: 16.87, 16.72, 16.63, 16.50, 16.40.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the outbreak of the level of 17.00 with targets at 17.25, 17.35 and stop-loss at 16.80. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
Breaking down the level of 16.87 may be a signal for corrective sales with targets at 16.63 or 16.50 and stop-loss at 17.05. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:09 am

liteForex USD/JPY: the pair is trading within the narrow range

Current trend

US dollar slightly grew against the Japanese yen as a result of trading on Monday, October 9, although “bearish” tendencies dominated through the day. This uncertain dynamics of trading was explained by holidays both in the USA and Japan.
During the morning session on October 10 the pair is trading in the flat and investors wait for new market drivers. Yen receives moderate support from the statement of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda, as well as the release of the balance of external trades. In August the indicator dropped from 566.6 bln to 318.7 bln yen which was better than expected by analysts (264.9 bln yen).

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range remains fixed. MACD indicator is reducing preserving a moderate sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic demonstrates similar dynamics quickly dropping to its minimal values.
Resistance levels: 112.81, 113.24, 113.55, 114.00.
Support levels: 112.19, 111.64, 111.27, 111.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after breaking through the level of 113.24 with targets at 114.00, 114.30 and stop-loss 112.70. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
Breaking down levels 112.19, 112.00 may be a signal for the return to sales with target at 111.00 and stop-loss at 112.50, 112.60. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:01 am

liteForex USD/JPY: yen in under pressure or poor PMI data

Current trend

The pair began the week with the upward gap (to the area of 114.00) due to the strong victory of Liberal Democratic Japan party, leading by Shinzō Abe, in the parliamentary elections, which means that the ultra soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will be developing for a long time. In addition, the market is alerted that Abe plans to increase the national consuming tax from 8% to 10% to increase the social spending. The decision can harm the retail sales, as the growth of tax inevitably affects the consumer spending negatively. When the tax was increased in 2014 in the previous time, the economy entered a recession, so the investors fear the same effect will happen this time.

During Monday the price was corrected of 113.30, but now is growing again. Yen is under pressure of poor PMI data. Instead of expected growth in October the indicator decreased from 52.9 to 52.5 points. The pair can grow, if the US Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Service PMI, which will be published today, are strong.

Support and resistance

Technically the price is testing the level of 113.67 (Murray [7/8]) and after the consolidation above it can grow to the levels of 114.06 (Murray [8/8]) and 114.45 (Murray [+1/8]). The indicators reflect the growth development, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Stochastic is reversing upwards near the oversold area. However if US PMI data disappoint the investors, the correction to the level of 112.50 (key Murray [4/8], lower border of Bollinger Bands) can develop.

Resistance levels: 113.67, 114.06, 114.45, 114.85.
Support levels: 113.28, 112.90, 112.50.

Trading tips

It’s better to open long positions above the level of 113.67 with the targets at 114.06, 114.45 and stop loss at 113.35.

The consolidation of the price below the level of 113.28 or reversal around 114.06 will make short positions with the targets at 112.90 and 112.50 relevant. Stop losses are near the levels of 113.60 and 114.40 correspondingly.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Thu Oct 26, 2017 11:37 am

liteForex GBP/USD: the pair is being corrected

Current trend

Yesterday's data on the British GDP pushed the pair to 2-week maximums at 1.3275.

The growth of the indicators from 0.3% to 0.4% in Q3 2017 gave investors new hope for the first increase of the interest rate by the Bank of England since 2007. The growth of inflation (currently the rate is 3.0%) has long been a concern for the British central bank. Mark Carney said about the possibility of reduction of monetary stimulae already in June. However, the solution has been postponed since then, predominantly due to low salary growth rate in the country which could have influenced the volume of GDP. Now there are no obvious reasons to postpone the increase of the rate. However, the structure of British economic growth is uncertain. In Q3 it was reached mainly due to the sectors of services, trade and IT. Industrial sector showed less growth, and construction one decreased by 0.7%.

Support and resistance

Currently the price has been corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands to the level of 1.3200 and may further move to the waiting mode until the data on the US GDP in Q3 2017 is released tomorrow. However, if the price consolidated below 1.3180 (Fibo correction 23.6%) it may continue to decrease to 1.3110 (lower line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3030 (gathering of Fibo corrections). A key level for the “bulls” is tomorrow's maximums area at 1.3270 (Fibo correction 23.6%). In case it is broken out growth may resume to 1.3350 (Fibo correction 50.0%) and 1.3415 (Fibo correction 61.8%).

Support levels: 1.3180, 1.3110, 1.3030.
Resistance levels: 1.3120, 1.3340, 1.3415.

Trading tips

In the current situation long positions may be opened above the level of 1.3270 with targets at 1.3340, 1.3415 and stop-loss at 1.3230.

The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3180 may lead to reduction to the area of 1.3110 and 1.3030. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.3220.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:39 pm

liteForex EUR/USD: the market is waiting for tomorrow’s PMI and Fed’s meeting

Current trend

Today the pair was slowly being corrected from the level of 1.1657 (Murray [3/8]), euro is under pressure of poor inflation data. In October the preliminary Consumer Price Index decreased from 1.5% to 1.4%, and Core Index decreased from 1.3% to 1.1%. However, the correction is not strong due to the positive EU GDP data. In the third quarter the index grew from 2.3% to 2.5% YoY.

The market positively reacted to Donald Trump’s decision to make Jerome Powell the new head of Fed, according to Reuters and CNN. Unlike Janet Yellen, who was Professor of Economics, Powell was an investment banker, which makes the investors to hope that he will soften Dodd–Frank Consumer Protection Act, passed in 2010 and restricted the bank trading in the stock market significantly.

Support and resistance

Since Monday the price is trading within the range of 1.1657 (Murray [3/8]) and 1.1596 (Murray [2/8]). It can stay within the range until October USA manufacturing PMI publication and Fed’s meeting results (the interest rate is not expected to be risen. After the breakout of the level of 1.1657 the price can return within the main channel of 1.1790–1.1657. The key level for the “bears” is 1.1596 (Murray [2/8]), after the breakdown the correction can develop to the main support level at Murray 1.1475 ([0/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.1657, 1.1718, 1.1780.
Support levels: 1.1596, 1.1535, 1.1475.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1657 with the targets at 1.1718, 1.1779 and stop loss at 1.1625.
The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1596 can lead to the fall to the levels of 1.1535 and 1.1475. Stop loss is near the level of 1.1630.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:40 am

liteForex AUD/USD: Australian dollar returned to reduction

Current trend

Today AUD is reducing against US dollar moving away from local maximums updated yesterday. The instrument is under pressure from not so optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Australian and expected strong labor market releases from the USA at 14:30 (GMT+2).

AiG PMI dropped from 52.1 to 51.4 points in September which was worse that expected by the analysts. The volumes of retail sales in September remained on zero level after reduction by 0.5% MoM in August. Experts hopes the indicator would grow by 0.4%.
US dollar receives support from the data on jobless claims published yesterday. They were interesting for the investors in view of the upcoming report on the labor market. The number of initial claims during the week that ended on October 27, dropped from 234K to 229K against the expected growth to 235K.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate reduction. The price range is narrowing. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic also preserves a stable upward direction but is approaching the level of 80.
Resistance levels: 0.7697, 0.7717, 0.7731, 0.7769.
Support levels: 0.7664, 0.7623, 0.7586.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7700 with targets at 0.7750, 0.7769 or 0.7800 and stop-loss at 0.7664. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
Breaking down the level of 0.7664 may give the “bears” a way to 0.7600 or 0.7580 with stop-loss at 0.7700. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:50 am

liteForex Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil quotes have been growing for the third trading session in a row. Within a day Brent oil gained 3.12% and rose to 64.05 (a 28-month maximum).
Oil prices are supported by several factors. First of all, it is the restoration of supply and demand balance in the oil market in view of fulfillment of production reduction obligations by OPEC states. This was announced by the former OPEC Secretary General Rene Ortiz. Oil market is also supported by the new stage of tension in the Middle East. A conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen is developing, and on Saturday Yemen launched a missile at Riyadh.
Today market players are waiting for initial API data on weekly changes in US oil stocks (23:30 GMT+2). If the API report shows serious reduction of oil stocks, the rate of Brent may receive additional support and update its maximums. Official data by the US Department of Energy on oil stocks and the level of production will be released tomorrow (17:30 GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Technical indicators show the preservation of the upward trend. The volumes of MACD histogram are actively growing in the positive zone forming a buy signal. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards.
Support levels: 63.59, 62.40, 61.75.
Resistance levels: 64.30, 65.00, 66.00.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above the level of 64.30 with target at 65.00-66.00 and stop-loss at 63.80.
Sell positions should be opened below the level of 63.59 with target at 62.40 and stop-loss at 63.90.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:33 pm

liteForex GBP/USD: Patrick Harker pushed the pair downwards

Current trend

In the beginning of the week the GBP/USD pair entered the channel 1.3183 (Murray [4/8])–1.3122 (Murray [3/8]).

On Tuesday the price was affected by controversial factors. Pound was under the pressure of poor UK BRC Retail Sales data. In October the index decreased by 1.0% due to clothing sales. British retailers fear that the high inflation level (3.0%) can affect the soon Christmas sales.

British currency was supported by the Trade low data publications. The low will be implemented after the end of Brexit, and according to it the Government plans to make a number of contracts with the key trading EU, US and Australian partners, and help the companies which have contracts with foreign governments.
Today the price went down after the Philadelphia Fed’ head Patrick Harker commentaries, who noted that Fed didn’t see any reasons not to increase the interest rate on December meeting, and to increase the rate gradually next year, if the inflation allowed it.

Support and resistance

The pair is testing the lower border of the range 1.3122 (Murray [3/8]) and the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The consolidation of the price below will let the price fall to the levels of 1.3061 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.3000 (Murray [1/8]). Otherwise the price can return to the center resistance level of 1.3183 (Murray [4/8]), but it can significantly grow to the levels of 1.3245 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.3305 (Murray [6/8]) only after the breakout of this level. According to reversed downwards Stochastic, the fall is possible.

Resistance levels: 1.3183, 1.3244, 1.3305.
Support levels: 1.3122, 1.3061, 1.3000.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.3122 with the targets at 1.3061 and 1.3000 and stop loss at 1.3140.
The rebound of the price from the level of 1.3122 will make short term long positions actual with the target at 1.3183 and further increase of the long positions volumes to the levels of 1.3244 and 1.3305. Stop loss is 1.3090.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:23 am

liteForex USD/CAD: the pair’s dynamics is flat

Current trend

Yesterday USD was falling against Canadian currency, being under pressure after positive Canadian Building dynamics statistics publication. Housing Starts index grew by 222.8K in October against the corresponding month of 2016, while analysts expected the growth only to 210.0K. Building Permits grew by 3.8% MoM in September after the fall by 5.1% MoM in August, while experts suggested the fall by 0.2% MoM.
Today the pair is insignificantly growing, waiting for the new rivers to appear on the market. There is no key US and Canadian macroeconomic release expected today, so the volatility will stay low. September New Housing Price Index is due at 15:30 (GMT+2) in Canada. Initial Jobless Claims publication is due at the same time in the USA.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into flat. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the mixed dynamics appearance with low activity level. It’s better to use channel trading strategy.
MACD still keeps steady downward trend and sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s possible to keep current short positions, but not to open new ones.
Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards, reflecting that the pair is oversold in the short or very short term. It’s better to wait for the confirmation of this “bullish” signal.
Resistance levels: 1.2751, 1.2800, 1.2858, 1.2915.
Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2639, 1.2597, 1.2537.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the reversal at the level of 1.2700 and breakout of the level of 1.2751 with the targets at 1.2858 or 1.2900. Stop loss is 1.2700. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

The steady breakdown 1.2700 can be the signal to open short positions with the target at 1.2600. Stop loss is 1.2751. Implementation period: 2 days.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:19 am

liteForex USD/JPY: Murrey analysis

Current trend

On the D1 chart the price was corrected from the level of 114.06 ([+1/8]) and by now has dropped to the middle line of Bollinger Bands (113.45) where it is fixed but yet unstable. The consolidation of the price below this level will open the way for further reduction to 112.50 ([8/8], lower line of Bollinger Bands), 111.70 (September and October minimums) and 110.93 ([7/8]). Otherwise the price may return to 114.06 ([+1/8]) and 114.64 ([7/8] in H4). Technical indicators show downward movement: Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone. Generally, the continuation of the fall seems more likely due to the values of indicators and the distance between the chart and timeline.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 113.45 (medium line of Bollinger Bands), 112.50 ([8/8]), 111.70 (autumn minimums), 110.93 ([7/8]).
Resistance levels: 114.06 ([+1/8]), 114.64 ([7/8] in H4), 115.62 ([+2/8]).

Trading tips

In the current situation sell positions seem more relevant but they should be opened only if the price consolidates below 113.45 with targets at 112.50, 111.70 and stop-loss at 113.70.
Long positions should be opened above 114.06 with targets at 114.64, 115.62 and stop-loss at 113.70.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

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