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Forex Analysis by LiteForex

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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Wed Jul 19, 2017 2:06 pm

AUD/USD: the pair has reached its limit

Current trend

In the second half of July the rate of the Australian currency against USD rapidly grew. Within several days the pair gained over 350 points having broken through a number of key resistance levels. The pair has been moving upwards almost without downward corrections which shows considerable growth in the volumes of long positions. The main catalyst of this movement was yet another negative data from the USA, FOMC comments on possible postponing of monetary policy tightening, beneficial fundamental background from Australia, and stability of RBA monetary policy.

Last week weak labor market, inflation, and retail sales releases were published in the USA. Australia responded with strong data on consumer confidence index and consumer expectations. Positive prospects and current indicators included into the RBA minutes give AUD additional support.

Support and resistance

Today the pair tested a new local maximum and a key resistance level of 0.7945 and consolidated below this point. Later on the pair is likely to move from rapid growth stage to the consolidation stage. Historical data shows that the pair is widely trading in the side range. In this situation side channel may be limited by key support and resistance levels at 0.7800 and 0.7945 respectively. In the medium term the pair may reach the level of 0.8000, but this will be followed by deep downward correction. Investors have already started to move away from long positions, and in the future it will happen more often and will become the main factor of pressure on the pair. Technical indicators continue to give a sell signal, and MACD shows the preservation of long positions.

Support levels: 0.7860, 0.7800, 0.7750, 0.7720, 0.7680, 0.7650, 0.7610, 0.7580, 0.7400, 0.7250.
Resistance levels: 0.7945, 0.7980, 0.8000, 0.8070, 0.8150.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened from key resistance levels at 0.7945, 0.8000 with target at 0.7580 and short stop-loss at 0.8060.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:02 am

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

Along with CAD, Australian dollar has been showing the best results against USD this week. The pair AUD/USD has grown by almost 200 points from the beginning of the week and yesterday reached the level of May 2015.
US dollar that has been weakening for the second week in a row due to bad macroeconomic indicators (especially inflation and labor market) is also under pressure from the statement of FOMC Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues. Moreover, on Tuesday USD received one more major negative impulse after the Republicans and Trump administration failed to pass the health care bill that threw the President's ability to implement the reforms into question.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia published the minutes of a meeting on the fiscal policy in which the members of the regulator confirmed economic growth in the second quarter and the improvement of the situation of the labor market.
Yesterday's release from the US real estate market was positive, and USD showed minor growth remaining under pressure of the political situation. As a result, this week the pair broke through the important support level of 0.7800, 0.7900 and 0.7950, as well as 2-year maximum on the level 0.7830. Tonight's employment indicators and unemployment data from Australia were worse than outlooks which caused the pair to start correction.

Today the market is waiting for releases from the USA: industrial PMI from FRB Philadelphia that may drop by 3.6 points and initial and repeated jobless claims with expected minor decrease. All indicators are due at 14:30 (GMT+2).
The main scenario for today is the continuation of the pair's growth.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7710, 0.7750, 0.7830, 0.7900.  
Resistance levels: 0.7950, 0.8010, 0.8090, 0.8160.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 0.8010, 0,8090 and stop-loss at 0.7870.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7900 with targets at 0.7830, 0.7750 and stop-loss at 0.8020.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Fri Jul 21, 2017 12:30 pm

LiteForex. Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the Brent oil reached psychologically strong level of 50.00 USD per barrel. During the next hours the price went down again, but as the OPEC has difficulties due to the increasing oil production in Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, this was quite a positive signal.

Technically in the situation of uncertainty, which can last until the OPEC Meeting in St. Petersburg on July, 24, the investors consider that the level of 50.00 USD per barrel was the target level, and the rollback is due to the closing of the profitable positions. During last two weeks the oil is strongly supported by the decrease of the USA recourses, which reflects the summer growth of the demand in the USA, which is the 20% of the world oil demand.

The positive factor is the growth of the oil import into China, which General Customs Directorate reported in June. In the first half of the year Chinese oil import surpassed the USA one for the first time, making the China the leading world oil importer.

Today the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count will be published in the USA at 19:00 (GMT+2). While the oil rig number has been growing for the last 14 months, the increase has slowed in last weeks.

The investors are waiting for the OPEC meeting on July, 24, and probably won’t take any action before it, so the consolidation of the price is expected.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 48.50, 47.30, 46.70, 45.80.
Resistance levels: 50.00, 50.90, 51.50.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current price with the target at 48.50 and stop loss at 50.10.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 50.00 with the target at 50.90, stop loss is at 49.40.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:07 pm

LiteForex. AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Last week the AUD/USD pair was growing due to the positive Australian macroeconomical data publications and the USD weakness, caused by the political instability in the USA. On Friday the trade instrument lost around 80 points, but this fall was due to the closing of the profitable positions below the key resistance level of 0.8000. Today AUD has a high potential to grow and can break the key level of 0.8000 in the nearest future, as the positive changes in the employment market and the growth of the economical active population in Australia promise the growth of the consumer activity and the accelerating of the economical growth in the country.
Today the investors should pay attention on the PMI index in the USA. The publications are not expected to affect the pair, and the further upward trend will be developing today. The nearest key issues of the week are the RBA trimmed mean CPI and the Consumer Price Index publication in Australia.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair is growing alongside the upper Bollinger Band, reaching the key resistance level of 0.8000. The indicator is pointed upwards, as the price range is significantly widen, which can confirm the development of the upward trend. MACD histogram reached the maximum in the positive zone, keeping a buy signal. Stochastic is ready to leave the overbought area, which will be the signal to open short positions.

Support levels: 0.7910, 0.7870, 0.7810, 0.7760, 0.7725.
Resistance levels: 0.7965, 0.8000, 0.8065, 0.8090.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current price with the target at 0.8055 and stop loss at 0.7910. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7905 with the target at 0.7840 and stop loss at 0.7935. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Tue Jul 25, 2017 1:53 pm

LiteForex. USD/CHF: general analysis

Current trend

Since last week the pair has been trading around last May minimum due to the poor macroeconomical statistics and the decreasing possibility of the tightening of the USA Fed’s monetary policy. The price has broken the strong support level of 0.9510 and is still trading below this level. The US is falling and is under pressure of the macroeconomical data and political situation. The president of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan commented that the franc was “highly overpriced” and the central bank would support negative interest rates.

On Monday the US Markit Manufacturing (53.2) and Services (54.2) PMI was published, which have grown against the previous period, and the pair was slightly corrected. It grew to the level of 0.9476 (+0.14%). However, generally, the market is waiting for the FRS Meeting on Wednesday, when the interest rate decision will be taken, and for the USA GDP report on Friday.

Support and resistance

The pair is trading around lower border of Bollinger Bands, which are widened and are pointing downwards, which reflects a “bearish” trend. However, CCI is in the oversold area, the signal line is pointed upwards; the breakout of the level of –100 will give a buy signal. RSI has left the oversold area and is at the level of 32.4, also pointed upwards, giving a buy signal.

Support levels: 0.94425, 0.93750, 0.92926.
Resistance levels: 0.94897, 0.95391, 0.96007, 0.96998, 0.98586, 1.00071.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened if the price is set above the level of 0.94897 with the targets at 0.95159 and 0.96007.
Short positions will become relevant after the breakdown of the level of 0.94425 with the targets at 0.93750 and 0.92969.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Wed Jul 26, 2017 1:39 pm

LiteForex. NZD/USD: the pair is in the horizontal channel

Current trend

Since the beginning of the week the pair has been in the narrow trading range 0.7443-0.7415 that currently coincides with Bollinger Bands. The calmness in the market is caused by waiting for today's Fed's meeting. The majority of experts do not believe in changes in the interest rate. Taking into account the fall of inflation in June (from 1.9% to 1.7%), the members of the Fed may abstain from making important decisions and will wait for autumn meetings. The rate is likely to remain at the level of 1.25%. The market will be interested in the follow-up statement that may give hints at further development of the monetary policy, for example, indicate the time for the beginning of balance reduction. NZD also lacks serious movement drivers. Important data on employment and dairy products index will be released only next week.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price is in the narrow side range of 0.7443-0.7415 that meets Bollinger Bands that narrowed down (as usual before considerable movements of the price). The consolidation of the price above the upper border of the range and the continuation of growth is possible to 0.7500 and 0.7550. In case the lower border is broken own, the fall may continue to 0.7360 and 0.7300 (Fibo correction 23.6%). Generally the market is uncertain (Bollinger Bands have narrowed and are located horizontally, as well as Stochastic) waiting for the results of the meeting of the US regulator.

Support levels: 0.7415, 0.7360, 0.7300.
Resistance levels: 0.7440, 0.7500, 0.7550.

Trading tips

If the price consolidates above 0.7443 long positions may be opened with targets at  0.7500, 0.756 and stop-loss at 0.7410. Consolidating below the level of 0.7415 will allow opening short positions with targets at 0.7360, 0.7300 and stop-loss at 0.7450.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Thu Jul 27, 2017 1:19 pm

LiteForex. USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the Fed announced its decision on the interest rate. As expected, the value of 1.25% remained unchanged, but the cautious tone of the follow-up statement disappointed the investors that started to aggressively sell USD. As a result, the pair USD/JPY lost 100 points. At the same time, the US regulator still considers it possible that interest rates may be increased until the end of the year. Moreover, the Fed stated it intended to start reducing the volume of aggregated assets in September.

The key event of today will be the release of data on jobless claims by the US Department of Labor. The expected growth of initial jobless claims from 233K to 241K will lead to further fall of the pair.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart the instrument is trading around the lower border of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is turning sideways, while the price range has widened indicating the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone with its volumes reducing, and the signal line is directed downwards which is a signal for opening sell positions. Stochastic does not give clear signal for entering the market.

Support levels: 110.70, 110.35, 109.90, 109.40.
Resistance levels: 111.70, 112.15, 112.55, 112.95, 113.50.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 110.50, 110.35 and stop-loss at 111.40. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 111.75 with targets at 112.35 and stop-loss at 111.50. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:14 pm

LiteForex. Brent: technical analysis

Current trend

Brent, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is growing along the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA14, EMA65, EMA130 and just below the SMA200, which is horizontal. The RSI is approaching its strong resistance region. The Composite is growing having failed its longer MA.

Brent, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI is trying to leave the overbought zone. The Composite is breaking down its longer MA. Both indicators have formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

Key levels

Support levels: 49.95 (March lows), 48.75 (local lows), 47.70 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 52.60 (June 2016 highs), 54.20 (February lows), 54.55 (May highs).

Trading tips

The price is approaching its medium-term descending trendline and the SMA200. There is a chance of a downward rebound.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 49.95, 48.75, 47.70 and stop-loss at 52.15. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 52.60 with targets at 54.20, 54.55 and stop-loss at 51.85. Validity – 3-5 days.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Tue Aug 01, 2017 12:35 pm

LiteForex. NZD/USD: the pair is moving to correction

Current trend

NZD remained in the upward trend against USD due to rapid fall of the latter. US dollar has been decreasing for several months in view of negative fundamental data and unstable monetary policy of the Fed. NZD, on the contrary, experiences excessive demand after the release of strong statistics and due to the stability of New Zealand monetary policy. By now, the price has entered the consolidation stage after considerable growth and is trading within the 0.7530-0.7455 range. This week special attention should be paid to labor market data and main indexes from the USA and the level of unemployment in New Zealand.

Support and resistance

In the medium term the volume of demand is expected to drop due to locking in long positions in the pair NZD/USD. Long downward correction is very likely to form from the current level with target at 0.7420 (lower border of the channel) or below to the key support levels at 0.7335, 0.7275. Technical indicators continue to give a signal for further growth: the volume of long positions in MACD indicator remains on the high level, and Bollinger Bands are still pointing upwards.
Support levels: 0.7455, 0.7420, 0.7335, 0.7275, 0.7250, 0.7200.
Resistance levels: 0.7530, 0.7550, 0.7575, 0.7600, 0.7650.

Trading tips

In the short term sell positions may be opened from the current maximum (in a view of corrective downward movement) with target at 0.7420, 0.7335. Stop-loss may be placed at 0.7590.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:49 pm

LiteForex. GBP/USD: the upward trend is still strong

Current trend

The British currency continues to go up against US dollar in view of the falling USD rate. Within two trading weeks the pair has been moving within the upward tendency without long corrections which indicates considerable decrease of demand for USD. US fundamental data cannot support the rate of the American currency. This and last week negative statistics was released on a number of macroeconomic indicators, namely construction sector, demand for durable goods, and labor market. The pound, in turn, is supported by strong demand and positive releases by key indexes.

Despite negative data on UK PMI, GBP continues to grow. In the end of the current week special attention should be paid to labor market data and the main US indexes, as well as the decision of the Bank of England on the volumes of economic stimulation program and interest rate. Moreover, the follow-up speech by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney scheduled for Thursday, may provide additional support for the pound.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair has a reserve of upward movement to the upper border of the upward channel at the level of 1.3450 followed by a long downward tendency. Currently there are no grounds for USD support from the fundamental background and the actions of the US regulator. Technical indicators confirm this tendency: MACD shows the preservation of the high volume of long positions, and Bollinger Bands point upwards.

Support levels: 1.3200, 1.3125, 1.2930, 1.2805, 1.2700, 1.2590.
Resistance levels: 1.3310, 1.3380, 1.3450, 1.3480, 1.3670, 1.3750.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened from the current level with target at 1.3450 and stop-loss at 1.3100.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

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