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Forex Analysis by LiteForex

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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Wed May 31, 2017 8:09 am

USD/CHF: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the dynamics of the pair USD/CHF was determined by negative values of oth currencies. After Swiss index of leading economic indicators for May appeared to be wore than expected, the pair moved up from the narrow two-weeks flat. But weak data on the consumer confidence index from the USA returned the price of the pair back to the range indicating that it was falsely broken through.
ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is due today in Switzerland at 10:00 (GMT+2).

PMI Chicago will be published at 15:45 (GMT+2). The data on incompleted sales transactions in the US real estate market is due at 16:00 (GMT+2). FOMC Beige Book Economic Review is due at 20:00 (GMT+2).  
 
Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.9700, 0.9640, 0.9550.
Resistance levels: 0.9780, 0.9850, 0.9930, 1.0000.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 0.9700, 0.9640 and stop-loss at 0.9780.
Alternatively, buy positions may be opened from 0.9780 with targets at 0.9850, 0.9930 and stop-loss at 0.9740.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:51 pm

NZD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The New Zealand dollar is lowering during the trading session today.
The NZD is weakening due to the poor PRC data publications. According to Caixin, the China Manufacturing PMI lowered below the level of 50 for the first time from June, 2016. In May the index lowered by 0.7 to 49.6 points. The index evaluates the state of the manufacturing industry.

A reading above 50 is perceived as positive for the Chinese economy. A reading below 50 is perceived as negative. The New Zealand economy is responsive to the PRC economical news, as China is its major trading partner.
Today the list of US economical news will be published. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is worth traders’ attention, as it will give an insight of the economy growth rate, and the ISM Prices Paid.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart the pair is moving within the upward channel. It is expected to trade near its lower border. MACD is above the zero line, but its volumes are decreasing, Stochastic is pointed downwards. The indicators give a sell signal.

Support levels: 0.7060, 0.7020, 0.6970.
Resistance levels: 0.7090, 0.7130, 0.7185.

Trading scenario

Buy the pair after the price is set above the level of 0.7090 with the target at 0.7130 and 0.7185, stop loss is at 0.7070.
Short positions seem more relevant, open ones below the level of 0.7060 with the target at 0.7020 and 0.6970 and stop loss at 0.7080.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:16 am

NZD/USD: general analysis

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Thursday was volatile for the pair EUR/USD which was caused by yesterday’s releases and the news due today, in particular changes in nonfarm payrolls.
Yesterday after slight growth during the morning trading the pair got cheaper in view of release on an ADP report on the level of employment in the private sector. The indicator that precedes the NFP report showed growth and exceeded expectations strengthening USD and giving sufficient proof that the report on nonfarm payrolls will be positive. Strong NP data in turn will indirectly support the increase of FOMC rates in June.

The growth of initial jobless claims had a negative impact on the US currency and slowed down the fall of the pair. It dropped to1.1200 but failed to break through a strong support level.
Today the market is expected to be highly volatile.

Support and resistance

On the H1 chart the pair is demonstrating lateral movement within a narrow price range formed by the borders of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is around the zero mark, and its volumes are minimal.

Support levels: 1.1200, 1.1170, 1.1120.
Resistance levels: 1.1240, 1.1265.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.1190 with targets at 1.1120 and stop-loss at 1.1220.
Long positions may be opened from 1.1240 with targets at 1.1290 and top-loss at 1.1210.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:24 am

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

The Canadian dollar fell last week against the US dollar, despite the fact that the data on Canadian GDP came out much better than expected. Nevertheless, the significant fall in oil prices, which reached a three-week low last week, and the strengthening of the US dollar up until Friday weakened the Canadian currency; and the pair USD/CAD was growing.

However, the trend line zone (blue) close to the resistance area of 1.3550 once again showed its strength, and the pair was corrected downwards. The correction of the pair also had a fundamental reason – the Friday data of the US labor market, which turned out to be worse than the forecast.

At the beginning of this week important indicators are going to be released: productivity level in the non-agricultural sector of the USA (14:30 GMT+2), it is expected to grow by 0.4%; the index of business activity and the index of activity in the US services sector (15:45 GMT+2); the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (PMI) of the US at 16:00 (GMT+2) (the forecast promises a decrease in the index by 0.5 points). Tomorrow, at 16:00 (GMT+2), the index of business activity in Canada will be published.

We can hardly expect a rapid return of investor confidence after their disappointment with the US dollar on Friday, therefore, for the next two days we expect the consolidation of the pair.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3315, 1.3260.
Resistance levels: 1.3535, 1.3600, 1.3700, 1.3790.

Trading scenario

Short positions should be opened at the market price with the targets of 1.3400, 1.3315 and stop-loss at 1.3540.
An alternative scenario would be to buy at 1.3535 with targets of 1.3600, 1.3700 and stop-loss at 1.3470.
Implementation time: 1-2 days.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:16 pm

NZD/USD: weak US stats push the pair up

Current trend
The pair is growing for the fourth week and by now has reached a maximum value in the region of 0.7170. The US currency was seriously weakened by recent negative statistics: the number of new jobs fell to 138 thousand. On Monday, unconvincing data showed the US business activity index in the non-industrial sector, which in March was worse than forecasted and amounted to 56.9 points. The deterioration of US statistics may slow the rate hike. On the other hand, the general support for New Zealand currency is provided by the milk prices: according to the Global Dairy Trade auction, a stable growth of over 3% has been observed for 6 weeks. In addition, the corporate news strengthen “kiwi”: one of the largest dairy producers in Australia Murray Goulburn was forced to close part of the production and cut 360 jobs, which plays into the hands of the New Zealand company Fonterra, which holds about 30% of world exports of dairy products and providing significant income to the budget of New Zealand.

Support and resistance
In technical terms, the price is testing the 0.7170 level (Fibonacci correction of 23.6%) and, in case of break through it can continue to rise to the levels of 0.7250, 0.7320, 0.7375 (annual highs). On the other hand, Stochastic's entry into the overbought zone indicates a possible downward correction to the mid-range of the Bollinger bands and Fibo’s 38.2% – to the 0.7000 level.

Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6875, 0.6800.
Resistance levels: 0.7170, 0.7250, 0.7320, 0.7375.

Trading tips
In this situation, long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7170 with targets of 0.7250 and 0.7320 and stop-loss order at 0.7140. With the rebound of the price from the level of 0.7170, short positions with the target of 0.7000 and stop-loss order 0.7170 will become relevant.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:58 am

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Due to the empty macroecnomic calendar market participants continued to act based on the negative labor market statistics and to sell the US currency. As a result the pair EUR/USD rose to the resistance level of 1.1284. After multiple tests of this level trading moved to the side channel. The traders are waiting for the ECB fiscal policy meeting and the results of parliamentary election in the UK and do not open major positions. If ECB increases its economic forecatrs, the rate of EUR/USD will continue to increase. If the rhetorics of the European regulator appears to be mild, one may expect the rate of EUR/USD to decrease.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators confirm the lateral tendency: Bollinger Bands are directed sidewards; MACD histogram is in the positive zone and moving alon the zero line.
Support levels: 1.1232, 1.1180, 1.1135.
Resistance levels: 1.1284, 1.1324, 1.1381.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 1.1232 with targets at 1.1180, 1.1135 at stop-loss at 1.1265.
Buy positions may be opened above 1.1284 with targets at 1.1324, 1.1381 and stop-loss at 1.1254.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:08 am

YM: general review

Current trend

Dow Jones continues to trade near historical maximums: 21223.2 or 8/8 Murrey. Breaking through and consolidation above this level will open it the way to 21250.4. In the near future a vote on the Financial Choice Act project may take place. The purpose of the project is to reduce the level of regulation of the US baning system and reserve requirements for commercial banks. If the project is passed, the market may experience excessive liquidity which in the end may positively influence the stock market.

The second event that may impact stock markets all over the world is the UK parliamentary election. According to the initial data, the majority of places in the Parliament is to be taken by the Conservative Party under the leadership of Theresa May. However due to terrorist attacks the gap between them and other parties (namely the Labor Party) is narrowing.
Initial and secondary jobless claims are also to be publised in the USA. A slight drop by approximately 8 thousand is expected.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is reaching the level of 80 points or the overbought zone and signals about possible correction. Short positions may be opened only in case the lower support level of 7/8 Murrey or 21094.1 is broken through.
Support levels: 21094.1.
Resistance levels: 21223.2.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 21094.1 with targets at 20937.8 and stop-loss at 21223.2.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:17 am

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

The pound fell by over 200 points against US dollar in view of release of exit polls data. According to them, the possibility that the Concervative Party may lose its absolute majority in the Parliament remained. Prime Minister Theresa May called for an early election hoping to get far bigger advantage, and the results of the election were truly shocking. Thus, according to recent BBC data, the conservatives are expected to get 318 places out of 650, and the Labor Party is to receive 267 places. The Brexit process becomes even more uncertain now which will add risks for the pound in the short and medium term.

The main item of the agenda today is the results of the UK election. After the release of the official data the market is expected to become volatile.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.2700.
Resistance levels: 1.2750, 1.2780, 1.2800, 1.2850.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.2670 with target at 1.2600 and stop-loss at 1.2700.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2780 with target at 1.2850 and stop-loss at 1.2750.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:47 am

WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

WTI quotes after a long fall moved to the upward correction phase from the level of 45.36. Oil prices gained certain support from the statement of the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia that his country has considerably decrease oil supply to the market. Today market players will pay attention to initial data from API on weekly changes of oil reserves in the USA (22:30, GMT+2). If the data shows the increase of the reserves, WTI quotes will get under pressure. Otherwise oil prices will be supported in the short term.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators point at the preservation of the buyers activity. Bollinger Bands are pointing upwards. MACD histogram is in negative zone, but its volume is decreasing, signalling about the increasing influence of the buyers. Breaking through the level of 46.85 will be a signal for growth continuation and will open the way to the level of 47.80 for the buyers. If the sellers take the initiative and drop the rate below the lower line of Bollinger Bands (46.11), the fall will continue to 45.38.
Support levels: 46.11, 45.38, 44.53.
Resistance levels: 46.85, 47.80, 49.00.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above 46.85 with targets at 47.80 and stop-loss at 46.60.
Sell positions may be opened below 46.11 with targets at 45.38 and stop-loss at 46.40.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby MikhailLF » Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:22 am

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

The rate of GBP/USD continues to gradually strengthen and has already reached the level of 1.2800, but failed to consolidate above it.

After the release of mixed statistics pon the UK labor market the rate moved downward. Jobless Claims were better than expected and decreased to 7.3K in May from 22K a month earlier. Average salary was worse than expected: the growth of the indicator slowed down to 2.1% in April against 2.3% a month earlier. Investors reacted to this news with the sales of the British currency.

After the release of statistics from the UK the main macroeconomic event of the day will be the decision of FOMC on the interest rate followed by comments on the fiscal policy. Market participants expect FOMC to increase the interest rate at its meeting by 0.25 percentage points t 1.25%. Thus, the fact of the rate's increase has already been included into the current USD rate.

If the rate is increased, US dollar will receive support in the short term which will lead to the reduction of GBP/USD rate. If FOMC decides not to increase the rate, or if follow-up comments of its head show cautious or pessimistic attitude to the prospects of the US economy (level of unemployment, inflation), investors will start to sell USD which would lead to the growth of GBP/USD rate.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. Bollinger Bands are directed sidewards indicating lateral movement. MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone reacting to the recent growth of the rate but does not provide a clear signal. Stochastic is directed downwards indicating the increasing influence of sellers.
Support levels: 1.2714, 1.2674, 1.2636.
Resistance levels: 1.2768, 1.2802, 1.2850.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 1.2714 with targets at 1.2674-1.2636 at stop-loss at 1.2740.
Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.2768 with targets at 1.2802, 1.2850 and stop-loss at 1.2745.
MikhailLF
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 29, 2017 9:29 am

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