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Forex Analysis by LiteForex

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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby LiteForexNews » Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:22 am

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, the European currency strengthened slightly against the US Dollar, which was under pressure from US statistics on ISM Manufacturing PMI. In November, the indicator declined from 50.1 to 48.6 points, while analysts forecasted a growth to 50.4 points.
November Data on Consumer Price Index is due today in the EU. The indicator is expected to come in at 0.2%. Even if the forecast is confirmed, a possible growth in the EUR will be limited as ECB is expected to continue easing its monetary policy at the upcoming meeting.
Later on, Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen gives her speech. Market participants might get more confirming evidence that the Regulator will raise its interest rates before the year is out. The futures market is pricing in up to a 75.2% probability of a hike at the December meeting.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, MACD indicator recommends long positions. Stochastic is giving a sell signal – the indicator has left the overbought zone; the %K line has crossed the %D line from top-to-bottom.
A likelier scenario seems to be continuation of downward movement within a descending channel.
The nearest support levels are 1.0555, 1.0500.
The nearest resistance levels are 1.0688, 1.0762, 1.0820.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened if the price breaks out the level of 1.0640 with the target at 1.0685 and stop-loss at 1.0630.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0590 with targets at 1.0555, 1.0500 and stop-loss at 1.0600.

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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby LiteForexNews » Wed Dec 02, 2015 2:08 pm

XAU/USD: price of gold declines

Current trend

Since the opening of the trading day, the prices of gold and other precious metals are declining amid the strengthening in the US Dollar.
The correlation between the price of gold and the EUR/USD pair is nearly 92%. The EUR is under strong pressure ahead of ECB interest rate decision, therefore, a decline in the price of gold is likely to continue.
Demand for the USD, on the contrary, continues growing due to expectations of a hike in US interest rates. At present, gold does not seem to be a profitable investment as borrowing costs of buying and storing it tend to increase.

Support and resistance

Though on the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, they are giving sell signals on the 4-hour and weekly charts.
Short positions are preferable. A growth to 1138.00 (38.2% Fibonacci correction and EMA144) seems possible if the price consolidates above the levels of 1085.00 and 1095.00.
Support levels: 1065.00, 1060.00, 1057.00.
Resistance levels: 1075.00, 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00, 1118.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1060.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1076.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00 and stop-loss at 1073.00.

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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby LiteForexNews » Thu Dec 03, 2015 12:12 pm

USD/CHF: safe-haven currency

Current trend

Since the beginning of the week, the USD/CHF pair was declining.
The pair was falling despite the publication of poor data in Switzerland that came out significantly worse than forecasts and strong statistics on the US labour market. The Swiss GDP in the third quarter failed to show any growth, Real Retail Sales shrank by 0.8%, while the SVME Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.7 points.
The main pressure on the pair resulted from increased cautiousness on the market prior to the publication of key statistics in the US that pushed investors to switch their funds into the safe-haven Franc.
Today attention needs to be paid to the ECB Press conference and its Interest Rate Decision, Fed’s Yellen testifies, FOMC Member Mester speech, and Markit and ISM PMI’s in the US.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is moving along an ascending channel with the lower border near the level of 1.0185 and upper border above the level of 1.0340.
A downward correction can continue to the levels of 1.0180, 1.0130. At the same time, a growth in the pair can go up to the level of 1.0600 (ЕМА144 on the monthly chart).
On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions, while on the 4-hour chart they are turning to purchases.
Support levels: 1.0230, 1.0185, 1.0130, 1.0000, 0.9880, 0.9800.
Resistance levels: 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400.

Trading tips

Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.0180 with targets at 1.0100, 1.0080, 1.0000 and stop-loss at 1.0220.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.0240 with targets at 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400, 1.0600 and stop-loss at 1.0190.

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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby LiteForexNews » Thu Dec 03, 2015 2:03 pm

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The AUD/USD pair is strengthening, though, according to macroeconomic statistics, Australia’s trade balance deficit grew to 3.305 billion.
The Australian Dollar is under pressure due to a fall in iron ore prices and uncertainty about China’s economic outlook.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI statistics. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline from 59.1 to 58.0 points that might affect the US Dollar.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the upper and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the MA50, MA100 and MA144, all directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, while ADX indicates downward movement.
Today, the price is expected to trade within the range of 0.7330-0.7287.
Support levels: 0.7287, 0.7261 (MA50).
Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7342 (local high), 0.7360, 0.7400.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the consolidation above the level of 0.7330 with the target at 0.7360 and stop-loss at 0.7315.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7287 with the target at 0.7250 and stop-loss at 0.7300.

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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby LiteForexNews » Fri Dec 04, 2015 2:07 pm

Brent: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the price of Brent crude oil significantly corrected due to a Dollar decline and prior to the OPEC meeting, which is due today.
According to the majority of experts, OPEC is not going to reduce quotes despite some speculation that Saudi Arabia can reduce its output. Contrary to that, there is a possibility that quotes will be increased due to Indonesia joining the cartel and Iran’s plans to increase output after sanctions are lifted. Therefore, total output could increase to 31 million barrels instead of today’s 30 million barrels a day. In this case, the price of oil might decline below year lows near the level of 42.46.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 42.46 (yesterday low).
The nearest resistance level is at 44.66 (yesterday high).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 42.46 and stop-loss at 44.66.
If OPEC decides to reduce quotes at the meeting today, open long positons with the target at 46.44 and stop-loss at 44.00.

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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby LiteForexNews » Fri Dec 04, 2015 3:31 pm

AUD/USD: Australia Dollar managed to strengthen

Current trend

On Thursday, the AUD/USD pair hit its new highs of the week. However, it should be noted that the pair strengthened in the second half of the day, while during the Asian session, the Australian currency was under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics for October.
Australia's exports fell by 3% after a 3% growth in September. Imports were down to 0% from previous 2%. As a result, trade balance deficit surged from 2403 to 3305 billion.
Later on, the pair managed to strengthen amid the Fed Chair Janet Yellen speech. She confirmed the possibility of an interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting, but the Regulator will have to consider the real economic indicators.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is growing moderately, while the price range is narrowing down at the bottom. MACD is keeping its upward dynamics, though growth of the histogram is slowing down. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and trying to turn down.
According to the indicators, a downward correction might form in the short term.
Support levels: 0.7330, 0.7275, 0.7234, 0.7200, 0.7183, 0.7158 (23 November low).
Resistance levels: 0.7363 (3 December high), 0.7381 (12 December high), 0.7400 (mid-August level).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened if the price rebounds from the level of 0.7300 (with appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 0.7400 and stop-loss at 0.7260. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions look more preferable and can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7300 with targets at 0.7200, 0.7180 and stop-loss at 0.7350. Validity – 2-3 days.

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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby orni308 » Sat Dec 05, 2015 4:54 pm

EURUSD has been trading high, and it seems that the positive job numbers will certainly push prices up.
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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby LiteForexNews » Mon Dec 07, 2015 10:28 am

EUR/USD: NFPR had little effect

Current trend

Despite strong Friday’s data on the Nonfarm Payrolls in the US, the Dollar could not recover losses of Thursday.
Nonetheless, November NFPR suggest a steady recovery of the US labour market. The figure came out stronger than was predicted by economists at 211 thousands new jobs, while October figure was revised up from 271 to 298 thousands new jobs. In addition, Average Hourly Earnings in November increased by 0.2%.
Considering strong recent data from the US, the probability of an interest rate hike in December significantly increases that could lead to the USD strengthening.

Support and resistance

For the downward trend to resume the price should consolidate below the support levels at 1.0820 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, May and July lows), 1.0760 (ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart).
At the same time, a consolidation above the level of 1.0890 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) could allow an upward correction towards the level of 1.1050 (ЕМА144, upper border of a descending channel on the daily chart) to continue.
On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic suggest a growth continuation, while on the 4-hour chart the indicators are turning to sales.
Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0760, 1.0700, 1.0600, 1.0560, 1.0500.
Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1050, 1.1180, 1.1285.

Trading tips

Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1.0845 with targets at 1.0820, 1.0760, 1.0710 and stop-loss at 1.0890.
Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.0910 with targets at 1.0940, 1.1050, 1.1090 and stop-loss at 1.0880.

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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby LiteForexNews » Tue Dec 08, 2015 8:45 am

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the Pound fell against the US Dollar.
The USD was supported after the publication of Friday’s data on the US labour market. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5% in line with expectations, while the Nonfarm Payrolls amounted to 211 thousands that was better than forecasted 200 thousands though less than the previous figure of 298 thousands. At the same time, yesterday’s data on the Consumer Credit Change showed a decrease to 15.98 billion Dollars, which was worse than its forecasts.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Industrial Production and BRC Retail Sales Monitor in the UK, and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings in the US.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 1.5000 (30 November lows).
The nearest resistance level is at 1.5080 (moving average with 50 period).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.5000 and stop-loss at 1.5080.

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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Postby LiteForexNews » Tue Dec 08, 2015 12:18 pm

XAU/USD: pair in correction

Current trend

The price of gold remains under pressure after the publication of Friday’s data on the US labour market for November. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5.0%, while the Nonfarm Payrolls came out better than forecasts. The data indicates a stable condition of the labour market and gradual recovery of the US economy that removes last barriers for the Fed to hike interest rates this month. Fed Funds futures represent almost 80% probability of the rate hike in December.
Thus in the medium term amid gradual tightening of monetary policy in the US gold will continue falling.

Support and resistance

After reaching the key support level at 1070.00 (EMA144 on the monthly chart), the pair remains in correction that could continue to the levels of 1085.00 (EMA144), 1092.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), a breakout of which would send the pair to 1100.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart) and 1118.00 (23.6% Fibonacci correction).
On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions. On the 4-hour chart, Stochastic is also turning to purchases.
Support levels: 1070.00, 1060.00, 1053.00, 1050.00, 1045.00.
Resistance levels: 1085.00, 1092.00, 1105.00, 1110.00, 1118.00.

Trading tips

Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1085.00, 1092.00 with targets at 1070.00, 1060.00, 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1095.00, and from the level of 1060.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1095.00 with targets at 1105.00, 1110.00, 1118.00 and stop-loss at 1090.00.

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