Forex Forum @ ForexAbode

[Himanshu]

Followup on the above USD/JPY post.

Some downward correction is taking place but till now it is just a correction. Let's have a look on the daily chart where the 5-hour EMA is still above 22-hour EMA and 22-hour EMA is still above 55-hour EMA and the price is finding some resistance at 55-hour EMA. The real threat to the above alert will only start coming in with if a decisive break below 55-hours EMA takes place and it would start getting confrmed when 5-hour EMA crosses below 22-hour EMA. Please note that the earlier alert was based on DAILY chart and this post is going to the smaller time frame i.e. hourly chart.

USD/JPY Hourly Chart:

[Himanshu]

Since middle of March USD/CHF has been moving in a very predictable way. One upward correction takes it near 22-day EMA and a fall takes place, then next upward correction takes it near 55-day EMA and another fall takes place. And inbetween it gets resistance at 5-day EMA level. Please check the daily chart. The current pricehas moved up to 5-day EMA and for past 8 trading days the 5-day EMA has been working as resistance level. Either a fall from here should take place and that is what i expect. If this resistance is broken then 22-day EMA should cause a fall.

USD/CHF Daily Chart[/b][/color]

Well, USD/CHF found resistance at 5-day EMA and moved down. Fall without parachute.

Daily Charts:

[Himanshu]

USD/JPY Alert:

Since July 11th the pair has been finding resistance near the 5-day EMA. The resistance has been broken for two consecutive days. This indecates that we can expect some more upwards correction

USDJPY Daily chart:

USD/JPY had a downward fall after this post but seems to be recovering again. Please check the current daily and hourly charts:

Hourly Charts:



Daily Chary:

[Himanshu]

AUD/USD had dropped but found support exactly at the short-term support trend line on daily chart. If a decisive breaks takes over 1.076 then I would expect some more upwards gains towards 1.0800 first and possibly more. But a break of the trend line support may take AUD/USD towards 1.0633 and hence stop-loss needs to be placed accordingly. Please check daily and hourly chart below.

For market sentiments: "The U.S. economy is “balanced on the edge,” said Harvard University professor Martin Feldstein, who joined four members of a nine-person panel that dates recessions in seeing rising odds of another downturn. Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings warned of possible U.S. credit-rating downgrades yesterday"

The above also goes against USD and hence in favor of gains for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD Daily Chart:



AUD/USD Hourly Chart:

[Himanshu]

AUD/USD found strong resistance below 1.0800. Though I take the current downward move just as a correction but the emerging double top pattern on the hourly chart indicate that we should have some more downward move to the range of 1.0650/1.0640. Before that some sideways movement may take placeThe current price is 1.0704. Please check the hourly and daily charts:

Hourly Chary (AUD/USD):



Daily Chart (AUD/USD):

[Himanshu]

AUD/USD found strong resistance below 1.0800. Though I take the current downward move just as a correction but the emerging double top pattern on the hourly chart indicate that we should have some more downward move to the range of 1.0650/1.0640. Before that some sideways movement may take placeThe current price is 1.0704. Please check the hourly and daily charts:

Hourly Chary (AUD/USD):

The pair moved as it was mentioned in the alert and some more weakness expected but as I will be away for some time, closed the position with 42 pips gain.

Position:

[Himanshu]

What happened yesterday- Keep a watch:

"Japan escalated its campaign to convince investors that the nation’s post-earthquake challenges mean they shouldn’t pile into the yen as a haven from the turmoil over U.S. and European debt.

On his third day in the job, Takehiko Nakao, vice finance minister for international affairs, oversaw currency sales that sent the yen down the most against the dollar since September; it recouped some of the loss today. With Nakao’s boss Yoshihiko Noda this week referring to mid-1990s style intervention as a useful reference, investors may need to brace for further action, according to Gareth Berry, a strategist at UBS AG in Singapore."

Source: Bloomberg

[Himanshu]

Historic decision: S&P (Standard & Poor) downgraded the credit rating of the USA from AAA to AA+ for the first time.

One week with such news as against many positive economic releases from the U.S. including the NonFarm Payroll (quite positive (117K) as compared to the previous releas (46K)e as well as forecasts (91K)) is a nice but complicated cocktail for the next week opening.

[Himanshu]

GBP/USD broke out of the range after a volatile sideways since July 22nd. Won't it be going down towards the next Fibonacci retracement level i.e. near 1.6125 in the coming days? I am condident that it should.

GBP/USD Daily Chart:

[Himanshu]

GBP/USD broke out of the range after a volatile sideways since July 22nd. Won't it be going down towards the next Fibonacci retracement level i.e. near 1.6125 in the coming days? I am condident that it should.

GBP/USD Daily Chart:

GBP/USD moved as mentioned. The screenshot of my trade position with 123 pips profit: