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Forex Alerts and Observations

Please share any observations which can lead to a surer or bigger market movement. Sometimes there are big signs for a major market movement but we may miss to notice those. This sub-forum is for such signs. For example a trader may be looking at an hourly Forex chart and completely misses that there is a typical chart formation forming on daily chart, which can lead to a major price movement or there is some big fundamental news. Please contribute to bring up the best.
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EUR/USD movement

Postby Himanshu » Fri Apr 20, 2012 8:51 am

EUR/USD is giving the indications for a possible upward moves:

1) Daily MACD line has crossed over the signal line.
2) The pair is trying to break over 55-day EMA resistance.
3) incidently the current price level is just below Tenkan line of daily Ichimoku cloud

Any decisive break over 55-day EMA should see further upward gains.

EUR/USD daily chart:

eur-usd-april20.jpg
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GBP/USD- Break over major resistance

Postby Himanshu » Wed Apr 25, 2012 10:52 pm

GBP/USD finally broke over the major resistance of 1.6167 first time after end of October 2011 i.e. close to 5 months. Such a break indicates that we should be seeing some more upward gains. For sometime yesterday a strong resistance came from this resistance and a close to 100 pips drop took place and some uncertainities were created but then finally GBP/USD did what many were waiting and that is to break over this level.

Please check the daily chart of GBP/USD

gbp-usd-break-april-26.jpg
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Re: GBP/USD- Break over major resistance

Postby Himanshu » Fri Apr 27, 2012 9:57 am

Himanshu wrote:GBP/USD finally broke over the major resistance of 1.6167 first time after end of October 2011 i.e. close to 5 months. Such a break indicates that we should be seeing some more upward gains. For sometime yesterday a strong resistance came from this resistance and a close to 100 pips drop took place and some uncertainities were created but then finally GBP/USD did what many were waiting and that is to break over this level.

Please check the daily chart of GBP/USD

The attachment gbp-usd-break-april-26.jpg is no longer available


The pair went into somde sideways mode but the previous resistance of 1.6167 had become a support and then as expected the upward movement took place. After some downside pull back I would expected this move to continue towards 1.6260 first:

gbp-usd-april-27-result.jpg
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Re: Forex Alerts and Observations

Postby Joseph20 » Tue May 01, 2012 2:43 pm

Wow thx for the alerts, It really helps but would be glad if they are more frequentm Just my 2 cents ;)
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GBP/USD - Consolidation?

Postby Himanshu » Fri May 04, 2012 12:52 pm

Joseph20 wrote:Wow thx for the alerts, It really helps but would be glad if they are more frequentm Just my 2 cents ;)


Shouldn't we expect 1.6120 soon?

1) On daily chart the resistance is coming near 5-day EMA.

2) On 4-hourly chart the resistance is at 55 preiod EMA.

3) Resistance is also at the lower edge of daily Ichimoku cloud.

(Charts below)

Fibonacci 38.20 retracement would be near 1.6120 and that is perfect because near this level the psychological support of 1.6000 ranges should start working:

gbp-usd-may4th.jpg
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gbp-usd-may4th-ichimoku.jpg
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AUD/USD - can we expect support

Postby Himanshu » Fri May 04, 2012 1:10 pm

The fall continued after the interest rate decision. The price is approaching the upper trand line of the previous falling down channel withing which AUD/USD was moving. Shouldn't we expect the upper trend line resistance of that channel to work as support now? I would expect a support near 1.0200.

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Re: AUD/USD - can we expect support

Postby Himanshu » Fri May 04, 2012 2:09 pm

Himanshu wrote:The fall continued after the interest rate decision. The price is approaching the upper trand line of the previous falling down channel withing which AUD/USD was moving. Shouldn't we expect the upper trend line resistance of that channel to work as support now? I would expect a support near 1.0200.

The attachment aud-usd-may4th-channel-support.jpg is no longer available


The support seems to be have broken though its is a bit early to say... but in this case 1.0150 may be a new target:

aud-usd-may4th-channel-support-2.jpg
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USD/CHF Breaks Over Critical Resistance

Postby Himanshu » Mon May 14, 2012 9:55 am

At last USD/CHF broke over the critical resistance of 0.9334 first time since march 15th. I would expect 0.9400 to be the next target now:

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AUD/USD back into the channel

Postby Himanshu » Mon May 14, 2012 1:01 pm

Well, The break of the channel was short-lived but then being back into the falling channel is a bit old news but the fact remains that the upper trend line resistance has been working again. 0.9890 should be the next traget !!! At least I believe so. You may also check the weekly analysis posted on yesterday:

aud-usd-back-into-the-channel.jpg
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USD/CAD Out of the box?

Postby Himanshu » Mon May 14, 2012 11:24 pm

Is USD/CAD coming outta box? At least for short term:

usd-cad-may-15th.jpg
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1) Red dotted resistance line: This has been the resistance since February 1st. It was broken first time recently even though not yet decisively.

2) Blue trend line: This resistance line seemed to have become support line. At least the last bottom indicates that.

3) Yellow resistance trend line: Expect that next resistance should come here.

Please ignore the green line. That is the current take profit target of my position.
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