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Swiss Franc - This Way or That

Please share any observations which can lead to a surer or bigger market movement. Sometimes there are signs for a possible major move but we may miss to notice those. This sub-forum is for such signs. Please contribute to bring up the best.
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Swiss Franc - This Way or That

Postby Himanshu » Wed Sep 07, 2011 5:02 am

The move which CHF pairs had yesterday were made people chew their teeth. 650 pips in 30 minutes for USD/CHF, 1000 pips for EUR/CHF and all. Well, since then its complete silence.

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A breakout will come sooner or later but the question is which way. Yesterday's move might have made some people earn good money and might mave made others lose some good amount of money, but either way it was unexpected and not planned. But what now? Don't we have an opportunity to make some money in a planned way when we can be pretty sure that a break out will take place sooner or later? The questions are two. When and which side? How long this sideways movement will continue and which side the breakout will be?

When: it can be today or it may a a couple of days or more.
Which side. My take for USD/CHF if for a break out on downside 60% and upside 40%. I am not taking a very big break out but a decent one.

SNB has tried to peg CHF to Ruro that they will not tolerate an exchange rate below 120.00. They have alo gone to the length of saying that they are ready to buy unlimited amount of foreign currencies to keep Swiss Franc in check. And we have seen the result of that yesterday. But now it is Swiss government against the 4 Trillions USD a day foreign exchange market. And it is the Swiss government against the long standing Safe haven status of Swiss Franc. How well they will be able to manage that? That is the thrid question.

My take of 60% chances of a downward breakout is because a test of the above may take place. Secondly, such a heavy movement deserves a little correction. But then, don't we have an opportunity of earning on the either side of the expected breakout? I think we do. My strategy will be to have a limit buy order over the trading range for upside breakout and a limit short order for the downside.

I am pretty sure that we have an opportunity to make some bucks in this situation which came like a crisis.

Please share your thoughts...

Happy trading!!
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Re: Swiss Franc - This Way or That

Postby eklein » Wed Sep 07, 2011 5:21 am

Hi Himanshu, would it be better to wait for the break and at some point go long so your are in the same direction as intervention Elvan!
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Re: Swiss Franc - This Way or That

Postby eklein » Thu Sep 08, 2011 5:23 am

Hi Himanshu, decided to take your advice and go either side of usd/chf with FATR strategy . Hope it comes off!
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