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September/27/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

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September/27/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:39 pm

Commerzbank: bullish outlook for USD/CHF

Last week the greenback’s advance versus Swiss franc was limited by the levels in the 0.9185 area, just below the 55-week MA.

Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that USD/CHF is now going through consolidation getting ready to head up for further growth towards 0.9340/0.9400 (March 2011 maximums and double Fibonacci retracement). In their view, the outlook for American currency remains positive as long as it’s trading above 0.8927.

The specialists note that support for the pair is currently found at 0.8927 (September maximum) and 0.8646 (last week’s minimum).

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UBS: bearish forecast for EUR/USD

Currency strategists at UBS believe that the single currency will likely resume declining versus the greenback as investors tend to favor US dollar as a safe haven.

According to the bank, EUR/USD is poised down to $1.20 during the next 3 months. The specialists believe that the pair is going to repeat its 2008 trend when it dropped from $1.60 to $1.23.

Euro was seen going down during the past weeks on the concerns about the world’s economic slowdown and the euro area debt crisis.

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Re: September/27/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Tue Sep 27, 2011 1:15 pm

Gaitame.com: technical comments on EUR/USD

Technical analysts at Gaitame.com Research Institute note that EUR/USD has entered the weekly Ichimoku Cloud and will likely ease to its bottom at $1.3183.

The specialists say that if the single currency goes below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its advance from $1.1875 on June 7, 2010, to $1.4940 on May 4, 2011, it will drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.3047.

In their view, euro’s decline may lead the currency to this year’s minimum in the $1.2873 zone.

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Mizuho: comments on USD/JPY

Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that the greenback is consolidating within an irregular triangle versus Japanese yen.

In their view, the outlook for USD/JPY remains negative as long as it’s trading below 78.00.

The specialists think that the pair may decline to the psychological level of 75.00 and then to 74.30 and 72.00.

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Re: September/27/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Tue Sep 27, 2011 1:18 pm

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD

Weekly GBP/USD

Last week British pound, as it was expected, dipped to the lower border of the Ichimoku Cloud (3) where the bulls managed to find support and return sterling higher, closer to the centre of Kumo.

The prices advance since the beginning of this week manages to contain the decline of Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) and bring them into the horizontal state. The Turning line together with the Standard line and the upper border of the Ichimoku Cloud is currently acting as resistance for GBP/USD.

At the same time, it’s necessary to note that the weekly Cloud has switched to the negative mode: though it’s still quite narrow and the bears haven’t gained much power yet, this may be a signal that the growth seen now is nothing but a correction.

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Daily GBP/USD

As it may be seen on the daily chart, that pound was gaining versus the greenback during the past 3 days as it strengthened and from the 1-year minimum hit last Thursday.

The bulls are currently confronting the Turning line (1) which acts as resistance. If the prices manage to overcome this level, they will face another obstacle – the Standard line (2).

All lines of the Indicator leveled up in the horizontal state (1, 2, 3 and 4). The descending Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) shows that the bears still dominate the market.

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Re: September/27/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Tue Sep 27, 2011 1:21 pm

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY

Once again we have to say that the situation on the weekly USD/JPY chart remains unchanged. The prices keep consolidating between 76 and 78 yen. High demand for yen keeps contrasting with the risk of the Bank of Japan’s interventions.

All lines of the Indicator are directed horizontally (1, 2, 3 and 4) signaling the sideways trend.

At the same time, the risks for the pair seem to be to the downside: Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) still hold the strong «bearish cross» in place (5) providing resistance for the prices, while the Ichimoku Cloud remains rising (3, 4).

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Daily USD/JPY

On the daily USD/JPY chart the Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) have formed the “dead cross” (5) – strong bearish signal as the lines have intersected below Kumo.

Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen still act as resistance – they didn’t let the bulls breathe freely and hold the pair close to the record minimums.

All lines of the Indicator became horizontal (1, 2, 3 and 4) that means that the US currency will likely keep consolidating.

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Re: September/27/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Tue Sep 27, 2011 1:22 pm

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF

Weekly USD/CHF

The greenback is gradually strengthening versus its Swiss counterpart.

The lines Kijun-sen (1) and Tenkan-sen (2) are getting ready to form the “golden cross”.

The sole obstacle on the upwards is the descending Ichimoku Cloud.

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Daily USD/CHF

On the daily chart the greenback’s rate is consolidating within the uptrend.

The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) act as support.

The rising Ichimoku Cloud has become wide enough to show that the bulls managed to regain predominance.

The general technical outlook remains positive.

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