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September/19/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

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September/19/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:11 am

European policymakers offered no plan

The single currency opened with a bearish gap versus the greenback as the debt situation in the euro area remains very tough. The markets are extremely disappointed as the European finance ministers didn’t offer any solution of the debt crisis during the Ecofin summit in Poland.

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner who attended the meeting proposed to increase the size of The European Financial Stability facility (EFSF) with the ECB funds, but German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann rejected this suggestion.

Today Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos meets the EU and the IMF officials to decide whether the nation can meet the conditions of the rescue loans is eligible for the next tranche of the bailout payment in October and for a second rescue package.

It’s also necessary to note that Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats were only second in Berlin state election – the sign that Merkel’s intention to save euro at any cost providing financial help for the troubled periphery nations is becoming more and more unpopular.

The pair EUR/USD lost 1% sliding from Friday’s close at $1.3795 to the levels below $1.3700.

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Re: September/19/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:14 am

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD

Weekly GBP/USD

Last week the bears have won once again: pound declined approaching the middle of the Ichimoku Cloud.

The lines Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) have quitted neutral state deviating down. That means that the prices are likely to aim to the lower border of Kumo.

The bullish Cloud (3) itself is narrowing – the bulls keep losing powers.

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Daily GBP/USD

On the daily chart the picture seems to be more bearish. All attempts of the bulls to push sterling higher were in vain. The Turning line (1), the Standard line (2) and Kumo are providing solid resistance for the pair GBP/USD.

All lines of the Indicator are directed down (1, 2, 3 and 4). The descending Ichimoku Cloud is widening as Senkou Span A (3) is moving only downwards.

As a result, technical analysis points out that the pound may keep depreciating.

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Re: September/19/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:16 am

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY

The situation on the weekly USD/JPY chart remains almost the same. The prices keep consolidating between 76 and 78 yen. High demand for yen keeps contrasting with the risk of the Bank of Japan’s interventions.

The greenback still lacks support, while resistance is provided by the declining Tenkan-sen (1) and the horizontal Kijun-sen (2) as well as by the descending Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4). The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) keep the strong “dead cross” in place (5).

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Daily USD/JPY

Last week the prices have once again dropped below the Standard line (1) and the Turning line (2) which now act as support for the greenback.

Kijun-sen (1) and Tenkan-sen (2) formed the “golden cross” (5), though the signal was rather weak as the intersection took place below the Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4).

At the same time, all lines of the Indicator turned horizontal (1, 2, 3 and 4) pointing at the continuing consolidation. US dollar may be able to rebound a bit, though it won’t manage to rise above Tenkan-sen (2).

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Re: September/19/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:17 am

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF

Weekly USD/CHF

On the weekly chart USD/CHF will keep consolidating in the 0.8700/0.8900 area after the powerful advance made after Switzerland’s central bank had pegged the national currency to euro the weak earlier.

Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) have leveled up in the horizontal state providing support for the greenback. Resistance is generated only by Kumo (3, 4).

The Ichimoku Cloud is narrowing – Senkou Span A (3) is directed sideways, while Senkou Span B is moving down (3) to meet it.

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Daily USD/CHF

The pair keeps moving within the uptrend.

Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen (1) have gone sharply up supporting the prices.

The bullish Ichimoku Cloud is rapidly widening as Senkou Span A (4) has jerked up, while Senkou Span B remains in the horizontal mode (3).

The rate’s consolidation seen last week may take some more time, but the general technical picture is positive.

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Re: September/19/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:41 pm

Jyske Bank: sell GBP/USD

British pound declined from last week’s maximum at $1.5870/85 to the 8-month minimums in the $1.5685 area.

Currency strategists at Jyske Bank are bearish on GBP/USD. The specialists advise investors to sell sterling taking profit at $1.5415 and placing stops at $1.6012.

According to the bank, pound is vulnerable due to the speculation that British budget deficit increased to 12 billion pounds in August after July’s almost 2-billion surplus. In such case, the UK will likely lose its credit rating.

The data on Public Sector Net Borrowing are published on Friday at 12:30 pm (GMT+4).

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Re: September/19/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:43 pm

UBS, Nomura: dollar’s gaining ahead of the Fed

US dollar strengthened versus euro, pound and commodity currencies ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2-day meeting that begins tomorrow.

Analysts at Wells Fargo, Barclays Capital and Goldman Sachs think that the FOMC may decide to replace some of the short-term Treasury securities in the Fed’s $1.65 trillion portfolio with the long-term debt in order to lower the nation’s rates. Such options in referred to among traders as «Operation Twist».

The dollar-positive factor is that the market doesn’t expect more quantitative easing. Other drivers of the greenback are renewed demand for safe havens and the elevated stock market volatility.

Analysts at UBS are positive on US currency in the medium term. Analysts at Nomura claim that the US monetary authorities are fulfilling their pledges and supporting the markets. In their view, the greenback will be more attractive than the single currency due to the continuing euro zone’s debt crisis.

However, though QE is unlikely, there’s some risk that the Fed expand its balance sheet on the negative economic data.

According to the data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net short positions in euro has risen to 54,459 contracts during the week that ended on September 13.

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Re: September/19/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:45 pm

UBS: technical comments on USD/CHF

Technical analysts at UBS note that the greenback has risen from last week’s minimum at 0.8645 hit on September 15 to the levels above 0.8854. In their view, the pair USD/CHF can now climb to September 12 maximum at 0.8928 and then to April 20 maximum at 0.9012. The specialists claim that support in the near term is found at 0.8645.

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