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September/12/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

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September/12/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Sep 12, 2011 11:21 am

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD

Weekly GBP/USD

Last week British pound survived rather strong decline versus the greenback – the pair GBP/USD opened below the Turning line (2) and fell to the rising Ichimoku Cloud (3) losing about 270 pips. Today sterling has opened already inside Kumo.

At the same time, the situation doesn’t look totally bearish: the short-term Tenkan-sen is directed horizontally, the longer-term Kijun-sen (1) is also going sideways. The Lagging Chinkou Span (4) has breached the price chart, though the signal is weak as at the moment of the intersection the price was found below Kumo. The lines of the Cloud are horizontal slightly deviating up.

As a result, it’s possible to assume that the prices won’t drop to the lower border of the Cloud, but found support in the area of the previous minimum at $1.5780 hit on July 12.

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Daily GBP/USD

On the daily chart the picture seems to be more bearish – the trend has turned negative.

Both Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen (1) raced down keeping the “dead cross” in place. The Ichimoku Cloud (3) has turned downwards and keeps widening as the short-term Senkou Span A went sharply down, while the longer-term Senkou Span B is moving sideways.

The lines of the indicator will now provide only resistance for the pair. Pound may get support only from July low at $1.5780.

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Re: September/12/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Sep 12, 2011 11:26 am

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY

Once again we have to note that the situation on the weekly USD/JPY chart remains almost the same. The prices keep consolidating between 76 and 78 yen. High demand for yen keeps contrasting with the risk of the Bank of Japan’s interventions.

The greenback still lacks support, while resistance is provided by the declining Tenkan-sen and the horizontal Kijun-sen (1) as well as by the descending Ichimoku Cloud (3). The Turning line (2) and the Standard line (1) form the strong “dead cross” (5).

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Daily USD/JPY

Last Tuesday US dollar has managed to overcome the Turning line (2) that provided US currency with resistance till the end of the week. Today, however, the pair USD/JPY has broken through the Turning line (2).

The Standard line went sharply down (1). Senkou Span B (3) remains horizontal, while the other border of Kumo – Senkou Span A – has reversed down widening the range of the bearish Ichimoku Cloud (4).

Before another correction the prices will likely dip to the record minimums.

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Re: September/12/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Sep 12, 2011 11:28 am

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF

Weekly USD/CHF

On the weekly chart the pair USD/CHF has made a very powerful breakthrough rising above resistance of the Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) and gaining more than 950 pips. The matter is that franc has weakened after Switzerland’s central bank has pegged the national currency to euro.

Tenkan-sen (1) reversed up aiming to cross Kijun-sen (2) and form the “golden cross”. The bearish Ichimoku Cloud is narrowing as Senkou Span “A” began growing (4). Resistance for the pair is currently provided only by Kumo.

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Daily USD/CHF

On the daily chart the trend has finally switched upwards.

The prices rebounded from Kijun-sen (1), broke though Tenkan-sen (2) and easily went up through the Ichimoku Cloud. The bullish Cloud itself is rising. The Turning line (2) and the Standard line (1) are pointed up.

The outlook for the pair seems to be optimistic. The pair USD/CHF can make some pulls back down, but all in all the pair is likely to keep advancing. The lines of the Indicator will now act as support.

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Re: September/12/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Sep 12, 2011 11:32 am

Market’s pricing in potential Greek default

The single has slumped versus the greenback and Japanese yen on the talk that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is preparing for Greek default.

The pair EUR/JPY hit the lowest level since 2001 at 103.88 yen. The pair EUR/USD dropped to the minimum since February 16 at $1.3498.

According to 3 coalition officials, German government is discussing how to support the nation’s banks in case Greece doesn’t fulfill the requirements of the aid package and won’t get the next tranche of bailout payment. Merkel is also meeting European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso today to discuss the possible solutions of the euro zone’s debt crisis.

Greek deficit targets are 17.1 billion euro for 2011 and 14.9 billion euro for 2012. Yesterday the country’s authorities decided to reduce one month’s wages for all elected officials and impose an annual charge on all property for 2 years.

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Commerzbank: EUR/JPY will fall to 100 yen

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency has broken below the uptrend line from 2010 to 2011 at 107.41, 2011 low at 106.20 and 2010 minimum at 105.44 and hit 10-year low at 103.88.

The specialists think that EUR/JPY’s decline may continue until the pair drops to the levels in the 100.00 area. In their view, resistance for euro is situated at the previous minimums in the 105.44/106.20 zone.

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Re: September/12/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Sep 12, 2011 2:56 pm

Bearish forecasts for EUR/USD

Royal Bank of Canada: euro has breached the “bearish triangle” getting under $1.4364 and dropped below the uptrend line from June 2010 at $1.3989. According to the specialists, EUR/USD is now poised down to the minimal level since January 17 at $1.3246.

Commerzbank: the single currency closed last week below major support levels of the 2010-2011 uptrend. The strategists expect the pair to fall to $1.3428/10 (February minimum and 50% retracement of the advance in 2010-2011). In the longer term EUR/USD will slide to $1.2000. In the near term euro will be capped by resistance at $1.3723/1.3840 (intraday Fibonacci retracements and the July minimum).

Scotia Capital: EUR/USD may hit levels between $1.30 and $1.35 any time. However, the analysts advise investors avoid trading the pair turning to USD/JPY and selling US dollars versus Japanese yen.

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