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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD
On the weekly GBP/USD chart we see the sideways trend: the majority of the Indicator lines are directed horizontally (1, 2, 3), only Senkou Span B has gone a bit up narrowing the bullish Ichimoku Cloud.
Last week the prices closed below the Standard line (1), while this week sterling began below the Turning line (2). Both lines are currently acting as resistance for pound.
Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen (1) still keep the “dead cross” in place, though the signal isn’t strong as it was formed above Kumo, but keeps the pair from getting higher.
Last week the prices went down ruining the short-term uptrend. Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) have formed the “dead cross”.
The short-term Turning line and Senkou Span A (3) are going down (3) and the Ichimoku Cloud is narrowing due to its descending upper border.
It’s also necessary to note that the lagging Chinkou Span has breached the price chart – the bearish signal (5). In addition, the prices have tested the levels below the Ichimoku Cloud – it happened where Kumo has switched and was thin. As a result, sterling may have lost an important support.
The longer term Standard line (2) and Senkou Span B (4) remain horizontal that means that this week the decline could be partially compensated. At the same time, it’s necessary to remember about the resistance. It’s possible that the bears pull the rate down to $1.6100/$1.6050.
Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY
On the weekly USD/JPY the situation didn’t change much. The prices remain in the area of the record minimums, in the narrow range between 76 and 77 yen. High demand for yen is still competing with the risk of further Bank of Japan’s interventions.
The greenback still lacks support, while resistance is provided by the declining Tenkan-sen (1) and the horizontal Kijun-sen (2) as well as by the descending Ichimoku Cloud (3). The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (1) still keep the strong “dead cross” in place.
The fact that all lines of the Indicator are moving sideways (1, 2, 3 and 4) means that US currency’s consolidation in the current narrow range may drag on.
During the whole week the bears kept the prices mainly below the Turning line (1).
Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) keep the “dead cross” in place. The bearish Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) still keeps US currency under pressure.
Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF
After the 3 consecutive weeks of growth the pair USD/CHF dropped last week testing the levels below the turning line (1).
The lines of the Indicator go smoothly down (1, 2, 3 and 4) that means that the downtrend keeps on and the August advance of US currency may be nothing more than correction.
Tenkan-sen (1) acts as support, while Kijun-sen (2) represents a rather strong resistance. The prices will likely stay between Tenkan and Kijun
Last week the pair USD/CHF has approached the Ichimoku Cloud, but didn’t manage to overcome Senkou Span A (3). After that the prices broke above the Turning line (2) and now support is provided only by the Standard line (1).
Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen 91) hold the “golden cross” in place (3), though its power isn’t very high as it was formed below Kumo. The Cloud that has turned bullish (4) is still extremely thin. The lagging Chinkou Span (5) didn’t manage to stay above the price chart and once again fell below it.
It’s necessary to note that Tenkan and Kijun are moving horizontally that allows us to expect consolidation of the rate between the Standard line and the Ichimoku Cloud.
Commerzbank: sell EUR/USD
The single currency fell from last week’s maximum versus the greenback at $1.4550 set on Monday to the levels below $1.4200 today. The pair EUR/USD breached the short-term uptrend support line.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank advise investors to sell euro. In their view, the pair is on its way down to $1.4055/1.3997 (August minimum, 200-day MA and the 200-week MA).
According to the bank, the bears will make several attempts to break down. The specialists say that if the European currency closes the week below $1.3837, it will be poised down to $1.2000 in the longer term.
BNZ: forecasts for NZD/USD
Analysts at BNZ believe that the fair value New Zealand’s dollar versus its US counterpart has declined by 4 cents during the past month to $0.6950/0.7050 as the risk appetite index fell from 46.4% to 36.2%. As the pair NZD/USD is currently trading in the $0.8400 area, it seems to be overvalued.
However, the economic data from New Zealand is encouraging and the demand for kiwi is high. That means that the currency has become less sensitive to the surges of risk aversion. As a result, the specialists expect the pair to enjoy solid support.
According to the bank, NZD/USD will climb to $0.8700 by the end of the year. Support for the pair lies at $0.8110, while resistance is at $0.8570 in the short-term.
UBS: EUR/CHF will keep declining
The single currency dropped versus its Swiss counterpart from last week’s maximum of 1.1975 reached on Monday to Friday’s minimum of 1.1000.
Currency strategists at UBS point out that euro’s decline was accelerated by concerns about the euro zone’s debt crisis and disappointing US labor market data. In their view, worries about the new slump of EUR/CHF are increasing as can be seen from rising option implied volatilities in the EUR/CHF exchange rate.
The bank warns that the pair may lose more during the next few weeks unless the Swiss National Bank tries to stabilize the rate of its national currency.
BMO Capital Markets: GBP/USD forecast for 2011-2012
British pound has been trading within a downside channel versus the greenback: it fell August 19 the maximum at $1.6618 to the levels in the $1.6100 zone.
Currency strategists at BMO Capital Markets believe that GBP/USD will keep declining during the next quarters.
The specialists think that sterling will trade in the $1.6200 region during the third quarter and then hit $1.5800 by the end of the year. According to BMO, in the first 3 months of 2012 the pair will reach its lowest point at $1.5500 and then start rising to $1.5700 in the second quarter, $1.6100 in the third and $1.6400 in the final quarter of the next year.
J.P.Morgan: trade ob ECB meeting
The European Central Bank meeting is taking place on Thursday. The ECB will announce its benchmark rate at 3:45 pm (GMT+4).
Strategists at J.P.Morgan Asset Management advise investors to be very attentive to the language of the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet.
If Trichet’s comments sound less dovish than the market hopes, that may give euro a lift versus the greenback. The specialists recommend selling EUR/USD on its advance in the $1.45 with target at $1.41 and stop at $1.47.
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