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November/08/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

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November/08/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Tue Nov 08, 2011 4:37 pm

Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF

Technical analysts at Commerzbank expect the greenback to rise to 0.9082 versus Swiss franc.

Then, if US currency manages to overcome this level, it will be poised up to 0.9317 (October maximum) and 0.9341/99 (April maximum and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2010/2011 decline).

Here the specialists look forward to some profit taking on USD/CHF.

http://static.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/08_11_11/.thumbs/9d17ac00024947dd6535d0f211642000_500_0_0.jpg

BMO: sell pound versus franc

Currency strategists at BMO Capital Markets advise investors to pay attention to the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday as it, in their view, represents good trading opportunity.

The specialists distinguish 3 possible scenarios:

- BoE doesn’t act at all;

- BoE undertakes minor quantitative easing on the order of 25 billion pounds;

- BoE does more significant easing.

The analysts regard the third outcome as likely as British economy is in a very poor condition that together with the euro zone’s debt crisis will keep pound under pressure, while franc has upside potential as a safe haven. BMO thinks that the results of Swiss National Bank’s any intervention won’t last long. As a result, the bank recommends selling sterling versus Swiss franc.

http://static.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/08_11_11/.thumbs/e8ac3c26ab0de1efded59aa1c8d2b4fc_500_0_0.jpg
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Re: November/08/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Tue Nov 08, 2011 4:41 pm

Westpac: market is focused on Italy

Today the market’s attention is focused on the budget vote in Italy. The nation’s Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is under pressure to step down, so the vote will show whether the premier still has a majority in the 630-seat Chamber of Deputies.

Next week Berlusconi plans to hold the confidence vote a on implementation of measures pledged to the European Union that are designed to promote Italian economic growth and reduce its huge debt.

Analysts at Westpac Banking claim that it seems that the market will be satisfied only if Berlusconi resigns and technocratic government is formed. The specialists say that when it happens, risk sentiment increases and the euro increases. In their view, one should use the advance of EUR/USD to sell the single currency as the relief for euro won’t last long.

Analysts at Societe Generale are worried about high Italian borrowing costs as the 6.5% yields would be soon unbearable for the country with only 1.8% nominal GDP growth and the debt accounting for 120% of GDP. Another thing to watch will be the nation’s auction of fixed-rate bonds on November 14 that may cause euro’s sell-off if the borrowing costs increase once again.

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BBH: euro will fall to $1.3145

Technical analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman claim that the single currency has breached the support of its middle-term upside channel within which it was trading since September 2010.

So, at the end of the last month this line started to play the role of resistance in the $1.4200 area.

According to BBH, the pair EUR/USD is poised down to $1.3145 (October 4 minimum).

http://static.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/08_11_11/.thumbs/96d442515ae347fc7e49d24b64c5db80_500_0_0.jpg
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Re: November/08/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Tue Nov 08, 2011 4:43 pm

Standard Chartered, BarCap: comments on EUR/CHF

Swiss central bank Vice President Thomas Jordan claimed that Switzerland’s monetary authorities are closely monitoring franc’s rate and are ready to act if it’s necessary.

SNB President Philipp Hildebrand is speaking today at 17: 30 (GMT+4). In his last interview on November 6 Hildebrand warned that if franc remains strong the nation will face the risk of deflation or economic contraction.

Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank underline that Swiss monetary authorities do a lot of verbal interference in the currency market. So far this strategy has proved to be effective enough as the SNB manages to keep the pair EUR/CHF above the floor of 1.20 set on August 9 even though the worsening situation in the euro area urges investors to run to franc as a safe haven.

Strategists at Barclays Capital expect demand for Swiss currency to increase this week. In their view, the pair EUR/CHF is on its way down to $1.2245.

Specialists at ING don’t think that the SNB will raise floor for the pair as such actions may ruin the credibility of the threshold. On the upside the analysts see euro’s advance limited by $1.2500.

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Deutsche Bank on trading difficulties

Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that forex trading on the macroeconomic trends is getting more and more difficult.

The specialists point out that Swiss franc – the strongest currency this year – added 6.5% versus the greenback in 2011, while Canadian dollar – the weakest 2011 currency – declined against its US counterpart by 1%. The deviation between franc and loonie is less than 8% and judging by the 30-year average is very small. According to the bank, that means that it has become very difficult to find profitable trades.

The economists think that in 2011 the situation won’t improve due to the extremely low short-term interest rates of the developed nations’ central banks. According to Deutsche Bank, the next year many traders will start seeking profits outside of G10 currencies. As for the major currencies the bank favors selling euro versus yen and US dollar.
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Re: November/08/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Tue Nov 08, 2011 4:47 pm

Saxo Bank: forecast for EUR/USD

Analysts at Saxo Bank believe that the decline of the single currency from the October maximums in the $1.4200 area will continue during the rest of this year and in 2012 when the greenback is expected to gain 25%. The specialists claim that EUR/USD will slide to $1.20/1.30 and then to $1.10/1.15. In their view, euro will be affected by lower ECB rates.

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BNY Mellon: forecasts for the major pairs.

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Re: November/08/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Tue Nov 08, 2011 4:52 pm

BMO: loonie’s prospects in 2012

Analysts at BMO Capital Markets claim that the dynamics of Canadian dollar has been so far determined by 2 factors: Bank of Canada’s monetary policy and the euro zone’s debt crisis.

The bank’s specialists think that Canada’ currency will lose to its US counterpart during the first half of the next year affected by the concerns about financial market.

In the second half of 2012 loonie will likely strengthen as the Bank of Canada will likely be the first central bank to start raising rates. According to BMO, be the end of the next year the pair USD/CAD will decline to parity.

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