Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex

Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Dive deeper into the fundamentals of the market. If you come across any major Forex related news item or wish to share your opinions and ideas related to the local or global economy, this forum is the place for you. Share the news and views about Fundamental Analysis and economic events here.
Image

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:42 pm

AUD/JPY signals by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:40 03/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 03/11/2016

Sell at 78.790
Take profit at 78.000
Stop loss at 79.300
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
User avatar
CSFX.Support
 
Posts: 2146
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:57 pm

Sterling Takes Off After BOE Holding Rates, Can It Survive Friday’s NFP?

British Pound rallied to four-week highs versus the U.S dollar on Thursday, powered by both economic and political factors. The Bank of England (BOE) decided to hold its rates unchanged after a court ruling that the government must hold a vote in Parliament before triggering the Brexit process. Earlier on the day, the U.K’s Services PMI was reported to hit the highest level since January 2016.

The pair GBPUSD hit its peak since October 07th at 1.24940 after the Bank of England kept interest rate intact. In a statement following the rate decision, the BOE Governor Mark Carney stated that the Monetary Policy Committee “have a neutral bias around policy going forward.” It means that the U.K’s central bank not only did not have the intention to cut rates further this year, but it was also considering tightening its monetary policy in the near term.

Carney almost wiped out market’s expectation that the bank will cut the key rate to a new record low by stating on Thursday that “Monetary policy can respond in either direction to changes to the economic outlook as they unfold to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the target,”.

Sterling, which slumped strongly in the aftermath of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, has played an important role in pushing up inflation. However, according to the MPC, the current rally in prices may be too strong to support growth. Therefore, a rate hike may be needed if faster-than-expected price gains cause adverse effect to the economy.

Another factor that gave a boost to the Cable today is the decision by a U.K. high court that forces the government to hold a vote in Parliament before triggering the Article 50 to start the two-year countdown to the nation’s exit from the European Union. The participation of Parliament whose members were overwhelmingly pro-EU before the June 23 referendum, may delay Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to kick off the Brexit negotiations beyond March 2017 – her initial schedule.

In the U.S., the race to the White House has become unpredictable since the FBI reopened its investigation into Clinton’s use of private email while she was Secretary of State. The U.S dollar was weakened after some polls indicated the resurgence of Republican Donald Trump. However, the greenback has regained steam following fresh polls showing Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, although the gap is just a few percent points.

Investors are waiting for tomorrow’s monthly payrolls report, which is forecast by economist to show an increase of 174,000 new jobs in October. Upbeat data will strengthen the case for the Fed to raise rate next month. In a statement on Wednesday after the central bank opted to leave rates unchanged, the FOMC said it only needed “some” further evidence that inflation and employment were on track toward their goals to hike.


GBPUSD has broken its trading range from 1.20880 to 1.23300, within which the pair was locked for nearly a month. Sterling rallied sharply but failed to sustain the bullish momentum beyond the 1.24700 level. The pair had to reverse low against this handle also because the market has stepped in the overbought zone. Some corrective moves are expected.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.24200, Take profit at 1.23300, Stop loss at 1.24800

Start Trading Forex, Indices, Commodities And Hundreds of Other Markets With Capital Street FX Now!
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
User avatar
CSFX.Support
 
Posts: 2146
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Fri Nov 04, 2016 1:26 pm

Image
Daily Report on November 04, 2016

Stock markets extended their selloffs on Friday as investor confidence in riskier assets has been sapped ahead of next week’s U.S. presidential election. According to latest polls, Democrat Hillary Clinton maintained her lead over her rival Donald Trump. However, the presidential race may be tightening just days before Tuesday's vote. Wall Street sagged on Thursday, with the S&P 500's eighth straight losing session marking its longest streak since the 2008 financial crisis.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9 percent on the last trading day of the week, heading for its worst close in seven weeks. Japan's Nikkei stock index slid 1.3% after trading resumed following a holiday on Thursday. Dragged down by the resurgence of the safe-haven yen, the Japanese benchmark has lost 3.1% for the week, the biggest weekly drop in four months.

In its November Monetary Policy Statement released on Friday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its output growth and inflation forecasts virtually unchanged, and indicated its contentment with the current cash rate of 1.5%. The central bank expected GDP growth to average between 2.5% and 3.5% to June 2017, and core inflation increasing to 1.5 – 2.5% over the next two years. Stability in Chinese economy, higher commodity prices and record residential building approvals are expected to underpin Australian growth.

In the U.S., the nonfarm payrolls report due later today is forecast to show employers added 175,000 jobs in October. U.S. data on Thursday showed that services industry activity cooled last month amid a slowdown in new orders and hiring. The ISM's non-manufacturing registered at 54.8, below both expectations of 56.0 and last month's 57.1 reading.



Technicals

CADCHF



Fig: CADCHF H4 Technical Chart

CADCHF has been struggling above the 50.0% retracement at 0.72680 since it breached this level yesterday. The pair failed to soar higher as the short-term MA20 is exerting downward pressure on the price. The pair may dip below the 50.0% level again and find its support at 0.72400.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.72650, Take profit at 0.72400, Stop loss at 0.72850



AUDJPY



Fig: AUDJPY H4 Technical Chart

Excluding a spike yesterday, the pair has moving sideways for nearly three-day following a steep drop from three-and-a-half-month highs at 80.624. The slide has helped the pair breached the support that is an upwards slopping trendline. With downward pressure from 2 MAs hanging above the price action and the fact that the %K line has crossed over the %D line from above, the pair is expected to break below the 79.000 support.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 79.000, Take profit at 78.700, Stop loss at 79.300



USDCHF



Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

USDCHF reversed lower after the price action hit the short-term MA20 at 0.97516. The market has escaped from the oversold zone but it still remains in the bearish area. As indicated by the RSI which is pointing downwards, bears are overwhelmingly dominant on the market, suggesting further downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.97400, Take profit at 0.96930, Stop loss at 0.97600



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

After drifting lower to fall back below the 38.2% level at 18.289, silver rebounded and surpassed this handle again. The silver market survived from falling into the bearish territory, which is indicated by RSI index which crawled back from 50 line. Silver is expected to retest the high at 18.700 logged on Wednesday.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 18.350, Take profit at 18.700, Stop loss at 18.165



COFFEE



Fig: Coffee H4 Technical Chart

Coffee has risen strongly since it pulled back from the support at 160.60. As can be seen from the chart, this price action has crossed over the MA20, consolidating the uptrend. As both RSI and ADX indexes are on a rise, the uptrend is strong. Coffee is expected to test the high at 166.70 logged one week ago.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 165.60, Take profit at 166.70, Stop loss at 165.00



Sp500



Fig: SP500 H4 Technical Chart

SP500 index fell off from 23.6% level on Wednesday, recording the first time the price has fallen below this level since early-July. While the %K line and the %D line have neared the 20 threshold, ADX is still rising, supporting the downtrend. RSI may find its support at 2072.00.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 2085.00, Take profit at 2072.00, Stop loss at 2095.00
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
User avatar
CSFX.Support
 
Posts: 2146
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Fri Nov 04, 2016 1:40 pm

FTSE 100 Keeps Falling, Weighed by Pound and U.S. Political Jitters

U.K. shares dropped on Friday, extending their losses to the sixth consecutive trading days. The FTSE 100 index headed for its worst weekly performance in 10 months, dragged down by the pound’s rise and the bearish sentiment from losses in U.S. markets.

With only a few shares trading higher, the U.K.’s benchmark lost 1.28% so far to fall to as low as 6,703.91. Uncertainties over the outcome of the White House race have worried investors. The gap between Republican nominee Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, who is seen as more positive for financial markets, has been narrowing since last Friday, when the case related to Clinton’s use of private emails was reported to be reopened.

The slide of the FTSE 100 index was also due to a strengthening Pound which has gained momentum since a U.K high court ruled that a parliamentary vote must be held before the government trigger the two-year negotiation on the U.K.’s withdrawal from the European Union. Furthermore, the Bank of England on Thursday decided to leave its rate unchanged, stating that the central bank can even raise rate if inflation grows too fast and cause adverse effects on the economy.

Many blue-chip stocks that had been benefitting from the fall in the pound, now retreated as foreign earnings for multinational companies will be dampened when converted into sterling if the cable strengthens.

Among multinationals, Hikma Pharma led losses on the market as the company’s shares dropped 5.9%, Shire PLC also declined, shedding 3.07%. Other market’s movers including housebuilding companies, with Taylor Wimpey plc losing 3.53% and Persimmon plc dropping 3.93%.

Also on the downtrend, shares of The British Airways parent, International Consolidated Airlines Group SA, plunged 3.59%. IAG cut a key medium-term earnings measure and lowered growth expectations as it adjusts to the post-Brexit vote slide in sterling.

FTSE 100 index has fallen below the 23.6% retracement at 6743.55 and is heading downwards to test the support at 6650.00. The index is under downward pressure from two MAs which hanging above the price action. RSI has entered the oversold area, signalling a pull back soon to come.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 6700.00, Stop loss at 6750.00, Take profit at 6650.00
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
User avatar
CSFX.Support
 
Posts: 2146
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Fri Nov 04, 2016 2:03 pm

Kraft Heinz Co. Inches Lower Following Mixed Earnings Results

Shares of Kraft Heinz Co. fell 1.16% in extended session after the food giant posted a mixed third-quarter earnings results. While the company’s profit beat estimates, its revenue fell short of expectations.

The Pittsburgh-based company reported Q3 better-than-expected profit at 83 cents per share, which is higher than Wall Street’s 74 cents EPS estimate. Overall, revenue sales declined 1.5% to $6.27 billion from $6.36 billion, assuming Kraft Foods Group and H.J. Heinz had been merged.

For the quarter ended October 2, the world’s fifth largest food and beverage company witnessed declines in net sales year-over-year in half of its four regions. The U.S., Kraft Heinz Co.’s biggest market, posted a 1.2% retreat, while European market fell 14.5%. Canadian area’s sales edged up 2%, and revenue from the rest of the world rose 4.4%.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 85.25, Stop loss at 88.00, take profit at 84.00
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
User avatar
CSFX.Support
 
Posts: 2146
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Fri Nov 04, 2016 8:31 pm

EUR/CHF signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 16:00 04/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 04/11/2016

Sell at 1.07700
Take profit at 1.07570
Stop loss at 1.07800
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
User avatar
CSFX.Support
 
Posts: 2146
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:28 am

Image

Politics To Overshadow Market Fundamentals In Quiet Data Week


Global financial markets were rattled last week after polls showed the U.S. presidential election race between Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump was tightening. At the close in NYSE, the S&P 500 index declined 0.17% while the NASDAQ Composite index lost 0.24%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.24% to hit a new 3-months low.

Overall, opinion polls still give Clinton the edge in national terms, but a tightening race has sapped market confidence and weighed on the dollar. A solid U.S. employment report for October failed to prevent to greenback from sliding against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections.

The Labor Department on Friday said that the U.S. economy added 161,000 jobs in October from the prior month. Economists had expected 175,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate dropped back to 4.9% last month from 5% in September, in line with expectation. The data supported the case that the U.S. central bank will hike interest rates at its next policy meeting in December.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, slid 0.26% to 96.94. For the week, the index posted a fall of 1.27%.

Sterling ended the week with gains of 2.74% against the dollar after the U.K. high court ruled Thursday that Prime Minister Theresa May must have parliament’s approval to trigger the Brexit process. For the week ahead, U.K. industrial production and trade balance are scheduled for release, but these reports will matter little to a market focused on the U.S. election.

The same is true for the other currencies but the New Zealand dollar. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a policy statement on Thursday. The central bank’s decision may be affected by developments of the market after the U.S Election Day on Tuesday. However, the country’s inflation and trade have been falling even though employment growth, dairy prices and business confidence is improving. Therefore, a rate cut by the RBNZ is expected, especially when its housing market is cooling down.

If RBNZ slash its rate next Thursday, it will stand in sharp contrast to the outlook of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which left rates unchanged this past week. The RBA also issued a statement with a relatively optimistic tone, which helped send the Australian dollar sharply higher versus its major peers. Furthermore, Chinese PMI reports were also better than expected, which helped to boost AUD.

Next week will be a quiet week for the Aussie as no important data of Australian economy will be released. Along with the volatility from the USD, the AUD will be driven by economic reports from China. The Chinese closely-watched monthly export and import readings are due on Tuesday. Exports are forecast to fall at an annual rate of 6.0% in October, while Imports are also estimated to continue falling at the rate of -1.0% in the same month. However, October’s readings are expected to show an easing in the rate of decline compared to the prior month.

Meanwhile, inflation numbers out on Wednesday are expected to show further firming of prices in China with both consumer and producer price inflation edging higher. Annual CPI is forecast to rise by 2.1% in October, up from 1.9% the previous month. Besides, PPI is forecast at 0.8% in October after turning positive for the first time in four years in September.
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
User avatar
CSFX.Support
 
Posts: 2146
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:35 am

Image
Daily Report on November 07, 2016



Global stocks and the U.S dollar were given a fresh boost on Monday after the Federal Bureau of Investigation said it maintained the view that Hillary Clinton’s handling of her e-mails wasn’t a crime. The news dispelled a cloud over the Democrat candidate's presidential campaign two days before the U.S. election, and is likely to rescue the S&P 500 Index from its longest losing streak in more than 35 years.

In in a letter to Congress on Sunday, director James Comey said that no criminal charges were warranted against Democrat Hillary Clinton, after the FBI reviewed new e-mails potentially related to its investigation of Clinton’s use of a private e-mail server. The greenback rose for the first time in seven days against a basket of major currency following the news.

Amidst investor optimism about the victory of Clinton, safe-haven assets declined. The yen weakened more than 1% to 104.578 per dollar after jumping 1.6% last week. The Swiss franc also slipped 1%, after surging 2% the week before. After gaining as much as 2.3% in the week to November 04th amid concern Republican Donald Trump may capture the White House, gold fell around 1.5% to $1,287.80 an ounce on Monday.

Crude prices rallied as Algeria's Energy Minister Nouredine Bouterfa stated on Sunday he was confident OPEC members would stick to a deal made in Algiers in September to cut output, according to state news agency APS. Bouterfa also added that the group's technical committee was working on applying the deal.

The High Level Committee of experts is scheduled to meet again in Vienna on Nov. 25 ahead of the next meeting of OPEC ministers on Nov. 30.



Technicals

EURUSD



Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical Chart

EURUSD is about to break the 50.0%Fibonacci level at 1.10578 after creating a wide gap down on the market open. The pair failed to cover the gap and has been heading downwards since the price action pulled back from two MAs. The short-term MA20 has converged with the long-term MA50 from above, suggesting further down moves.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.10500, Take profit at 1.10000, Stop loss at 1.10700



USDCHF



Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

USDCHF left a gap up on the market open on Monday which sent the price action to cross over the short-term MA20 and turned this resistance into a dynamic support. The 20-period MA has sustained the pair’s bullish momentum after a short slide following the gap. RSI has surpassed the 50 line, indicating that the pair may soar higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 0.97800, Take profit at 0.98600, Stop loss at 0.97500



CADJPY



Fig: CADJPY H4 Technical Chart

CADJPY has been struggling under the 38.2% retracement after jumping more than 1% on the opening. The sharp rally has brought the price action to penetrated both long-term and short-term MAs, signaling a reversal into an uptrend. As can be observed from the Stochastic chart, %D line and %K line has been surging. A breakout thought the 38.2% level is expected.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 78.100, Take profit at 78.500, Stop loss at 77.900



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold dropped back to an intra-day low after surging to as high as 1295.72 in an attempt to cover the wide gap down created on the market open. Gold fell back below the 23.6% retracement and may slide deeper to test the support at 1279.00. While RSI is ticking lower, ADX has been soaring, confirming the downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1287.00, Take profit at 1279.00, Stop loss at 1295.00



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

WTI has been trading sideways under the long-term MA50 at 44.80. The commodity has been on a rise after bottoming out at 43.56. RSI index that has surged above 50 line and continues to pointing upwards suggesting a crossover of the price action through the 50-period MA.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 45.00, Take profit at 45.70, Stop loss at 44.60



CAC40



Fig: CAC40 H4 Technical Chart

CAC40 has witnessed a big jump that sent the price above 23.6% level. The index escaped from a six-day losing streak and is on course to pare its losses. The %K line has crossed over the %D line from below and liberated from the oversold zone. With a wide gap between two lines of Stochastic chart, the index is expected to extend its rally.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 4445.00, Take profit at 4473.00, Stop loss at 4420.00
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
User avatar
CSFX.Support
 
Posts: 2146
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:41 am

Image

HSBC’s Profit Tops Estimates, One-time Items Weigh on Bottom Line

HSBC Holdings Plc on Monday reported third-quarter underlying profit that beat analysts’ estimates but overall profit was weighed by the impact from the sale of its Brazilian business.

The Europe’s largest bank said its adjusted pretax profit, which excludes one-time charges, rose 7 percent from a year earlier to $5.59 billion, thanks to attempts of Chief Executive Officer Stuart Gulliver to pare costs and bolster the lender’s capital cushion. In three months to September, the bank’s adjusted revenue added 2.4% to $12.79 billion with adjusted operating costs dropping 3.5% to $7.25 billion.

However, HSBC’s overall profit swung to a loss of $204 million from a year-earlier profit of $5.23 billion, due in part to a $1.74 billion loss from the disposal of its operations in Brazil which was sold to Banco Bradesco S.A. in July.

HSBC shares have rallied more than 11% since August, when it announced a plan to spend up to $2.5 billion in the second half to repurchase shares. The U.K. banking giant said it had completed 59% of its share-repurchase plan, which is expected to conclude in late 2016 or early 2017.

HSBC Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 595.00, Take profit at 605.00, Stop loss at 590.00
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
User avatar
CSFX.Support
 
Posts: 2146
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Mon Nov 07, 2016 7:32 pm

Clinton Remains Strong Favourite, FTSE 100 Reverses Higher

U.K. stocks jumped on Monday, as investor confidence was fueled by news that the FBI would not bring fresh charges against Hillary Clinton over a batch of newly discovered emails. The news dispelled a cloud over the Democrat candidate’s presidential campaign two days before the U.S. election and triggered dollar buying, which indirectly dampened British Pound price.

The FTSE 100 index lost more than 4.5% last week with every single trading day closing lower partly due to concerns over tightening race between Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and his Democrat rival Hillary Clinton. Investors’ worries have mounted since the FBI announced on October 28 that it had found new evidence in its investigation of Clinton’s emails.

On the FTSE 100, mining and banking shares were heading the risers as investors piled back into riskier assets. Rising industrial metal prices pushed mining shares up, with Glencore Plc adding 4.12%, BHP Billiton gaining 3.99%. Antofagasta and Rio Tinto plc rose 3.86% and 3.04%, respectively.

However, as haven assets such as gold and silver slipped back, shares of Randgold Resources were down 0.15% and Fresnillo fell 1.54%.

HSBC Holdings plc topped the market and banking stocks following its latest update on third-quarter earnings. HSBC rallied 4.96% after the lender reported underlying profit that beat analysts’ estimates. On the contrary, Tesco dropped 0.77% after its banking service was reported to hit by fraudulent activity.

FTSE 100 created a wide gap up on the market open. The index witnessed a big jump that brought the prices above the 23.6% level at 6742.67. As can be seen from the stochastic chart, the %K line has crossed over the %D line from below, suggesting a reversal into an uptrend. The index is expected to find its resistance at 6920.00.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 6790.00, take profit at 6920.00, stop loss at 6760.00
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
User avatar
CSFX.Support
 
Posts: 2146
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:16 am

PreviousNext

Return to Dive Deeper - Forex News and Fundamental Analysis

 

Who is online on Forum

Registered users: Baidu [Spider], Bing [Bot], Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], John Harry, Yahoo [Bot]