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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Mon May 22, 2017 10:56 am

Date : 22th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22th May 2017.


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FX News Today

It was a little over eight years ago when then Fed chief Bernanke said he saw signs of “green shoots” of recovery from the Great Recession and financial crisis of 2007-2008. But they didn’t really blossom as annual GDP growth has averaged only 2.1% in the U.S., and even less in OECD countries. Despite the fears that the political tumult since Brexit would be a major headwind to growth, recent data reveal an increasingly upbeat outlook, where the rise in optimism finally could be bearing fruit

United States: Trading in the U.S. was choppy last week as political uncertainties dominated. This week, the markets will be closely following President Trump’s first overseas trip as leader of the free world as he visits Saudi Arabia, Israel, Italy (for a G7 summit), the Vatican, and Belgium (for a NATO summit). Despite political uncertainties, we have some US data out this week. The data calendar is light and none of the releases will be really crucial to the outlook. The week’s highlights are home sales and home prices, durable goods, consumer sentiment, and the second look at Q1 GDP. New home sales (Tuesday) are expected to drop 4.2% in April to a 595k unit pace. Sales have been up all year so far. April existing home sales (Wednesday) are projected to fall 0.5% to a 5.680 mln clip. Durable orders (Friday) are seen dropping 1.0%, erasing the 0.9% March increase, and ending a string of three straight monthly gains. The final reading on May consumer confidence from the University of Michigan survey (Friday) is seen unchanged at 97.7. Q1 GDP (Friday) is expected to be revised down to a 0.5% rate of growth from the 0.7% Advance report. Other data this week includes April Chicago Fed national activity index for April (Monday), the Richmond Fed index (Tuesday), the flash May Markit PMI (Wednesday), the FHFA home price index (Wednesday), the KC Fed manufacturing index (Thursday), the advance economic indicators (Thursday), jobless claims (Thursday), and the flash May Markit services index.

Canada: Canada’s markets are closed Monday for the Victoria Day holiday. The Bank of Canada’s rate announcement (Wednesday) is the main event this week. No change in the 0.50% rate setting expected, alongside a maintenance of a cautiously constructive outlook on growth and inflation that is consistent with no change in rates until next year. Wholesale shipments (Tuesday) are projected to improve 1.0% in March after the 0.2% dip in February. Average weekly earnings for March and the May CFIB small and medium business sentiment survey are both due Thursday. BoC Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc speaks on Thursday, with the remarks published on the BoC’s website at 11:45 ET

Europe: That there are diverging opinions on the ECB’s Governing Council is nothing new. But so far at least the Executive Board has been united in its defense of the central bank’s still very accommodative policy and the insurance policy that the implicit easing bias still provides. However, with confidence indicators showing a more robust economy, labor markets improving, and political risks receding, it seems the discussion about how much gradualism will be needed for the ECB’s path to exit steps has reached the Executive Board. Praet and Coeure as well as ECB President Draghi are all scheduled to speak during the week and it will be interesting to see whether the two “opponents” will continue their public voicing of opinion and if Draghi will take sides ahead of the June meeting. What is clear is that the discussion is ongoing and political events and market volatility will likely be equally important in the end as confidence data and against that background this week’s round of German Ifo and PMI readings (both Tuesday) will be watched carefully. The manufacturing PMI seen at 56.6 slightly down from the 56.7 in the previous month and the services PMI at 56.5 down from 56.4 in April. The German Ifo Business Climate, meanwhile is expected to nudge slightly higher to 113.1 from 112.9, with both expectations and current conditions indicators likely to improve.

UK: Incoming data for April and May have been consistent with growth rebounding from a weak patch in Q1, highlighting that Brexit uncertainties haven’t been taking the economic toll feared. The calendar this week brings government borrowing for April (Tuesday), the May edition of the CBI distributive sales survey (also Tuesday), and the second estimate of the Q1 GDP report. The headline realized sales reading of the CBI survey expected to dip to 32 from 44 in the previous month. The GDP data expected to come in unrevised at 0.3% q/q and 2.1% y/y.

Japan: In Japan, the March all-industry index (Tuesday) is forecast at -0.7% m/m, reversing the 0.7% rise in February. CPI figures (Thursday) should show national prices at a 0.2% y/y rate overall in April, unchanged from March, while core prices should be steady at 0.2% y/y versus February. May Tokyo CPI is expected to drop to a -0.1% y/y clip overall, and -0.1% y/y core, both unchanged compared to April. April services PPI (Thursday) are estimated rising at a 0.8% y/y pace, unchanged from March.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is thin this week, with Q1 construction work done (Wednesday) one of the few economic report due. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Debelle has a busy week. He presents a speech titled ” How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Basis” at the BIS Symposium: CIP – RIP? on Tuesday. Debelle delivers opening remarks and participates in a panel at the Launch of the FX Global Code in London (Thursday). The RBA’s Head of Payments Policy participates in a panel at the Australian Retail Banking Summit (Friday).

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has the April trade report (Wednesday), expected to reveal a narrowing in the surplus to NZ$250 mln from NZ$332 mln in March. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Wheeler speaks in Hamilton (Wednesday) but the event is not public.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Tue May 23, 2017 9:39 am

Date : 23rd May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd May 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with the Nikkei down -0.16%, while the Hang Seng managed a 0.24% gain. U.S. stock futures are heading south, while the FTSE 100 futures is managing marginal gains as Sterling slumps following last nights terror attack in Manchester. Greek officials sounded optimist on the progress of the bailout review after yesterday’s Eurogroup meeting and markets are preparing for a very full data round in Europe today, which includes detailed German GDP numbers at the start of the session as well as German Ifo, preliminary PMIs and the U.K. CBI retailing survey. Against that background, U.K. bond and stock markets are likely to continue to outperform, while Eurozone spreads could remain mixed, as markets assess political risks and data ahead of the June ECB meeting.

German Q1 GDP was confirmed at 0.6% q/q and 1.7% y/y (wda) – as expected. The breakdown, which was released for the first time, showed broadly balanced growth, with private consumption and government spending expanding below average, but investment picking up strongly. In particular equipment investment, which had continued to contract over the past quarters finally rebounded and surged 1.2% q/q. Construction investment meanwhile rose 2.3% q/q. and investment overall contributed 0.3% points to the quarterly growth rate, private consumption 0.2% points and net exports, which detracted from growth in the second half of last year, contributed 0.4% points, while stock changes detracted -0.4% points. The strong contribution from net exports will add to the ongoing criticism of Germany’s export surplus, but with private consumption also picking up and investment expanding strongly, this is a relatively broadly balanced recovery.

EU Commission calls on Germany to accelerate public investment and create conditions for wage growth to pick up. At the same time the country should use fiscal policy to support demand. Given that the German economy is already close or above capacity and that monetary policy remains very expansionary an equally expansionary fiscal policy is a controversial recommendation, but it reflects the prevailing sense that budget surpluses should be used for spending and investment rather than debt reduction, despite the fact that debt levels across the whole of the Eurozone remain high. German wage growth meanwhile remains above the Eurozone average, but admittedly looks rather low considering that the labour market is very tight. German Finance Minstry sees shrinking current account surplus. The ministry said in its latest monthly report that the German current account surplus is set to fall further next year, to a still very high 7% of GDP from an expected 7.5% this year and versus 8.6% in 2015. The report stressed that on a national basis the ground is prepared for a sinking surplus, and that the high surplus is mainly due to market forces.

Main Macro Events Today

German IFO – German Ifo business confidence is expected to nudge slightly higher to 113.1 from 112.9, with both expectations and current conditions indicators likely to improve.

Eurozone PMI – Eurozone PMI readings expected to move sideways in May at high levels, with the manufacturing PMI seen at 56.6, slightly down from the 56.7 in the previous month and the services PMI at 56.5, down from 56.4 in April.

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing – The headline realized sales reading of the CBI survey expected to dip to 32 from 44 in the previous month. Meanwhile the GDP data expected to come in unrevised at 0.3% q/q and 2.1% y/y.

US New Home Sales – New home sales are expected to drop 4.2% in April to a 595k unit pace after climbing 5.8% in March to 621k.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Wed May 24, 2017 10:43 am

Date : 24th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th May 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: After modest gains on Wall Street yesterday, Asian markets were hit by the Moody’s ratings downgrade for China, which was cut to A1 from A3 and left investors wrong footed and CSI 300 and Hang Seng in negative territory. The ASX is little changed, while Japanese bourses managed to outperform, benefiting from a weaker Yen. U.K. and U.S. futures are heading south, although Eurozone markets already outperformed yesterday amid strong data releases, while the U.K. in particular was hit by a bout of risk aversion following the Manchester terror attack. With pressure on the ECB to lay the ground for tightening measures rising, Bunds are likely to continue to underperform. Today’s local calendar is relatively quiet, with German consumer confidence and the second reading of Spanish GDP, which will leave the focus on the Fed minutes.

U.S. reports: revealed big headline drops for April new home sales and the May Richmond Fed index. Yet, the 11.4% April new home sales plunge to a 569k rate followed annual revisions that lifted the sales data through this year’s mild winter, with a whopping 55k in upward revisions for Q1 alone that left a stronger than expected sales path for 2017. U.S. May Markit manufacturing and services PMIs were 52.5 and 54.0, respectively, for the preliminary reads versus April’s 52.8 and 53.1. The composite hence rose to 53.9 from 53.2 previously. These are all higher than the year ago prints of 50.7 for manufacturing, 51.3 for services, and 50.9 for the composite. Most of the key components in manufacturing dipped to the lowest levels since September, though the services components mostly gained, with input prices rising to the highest level since June 2015. The Richmond Fed plunge to 1.0 in May from 20.0 in April and a 7-year high of 22.0 in March left a larger than expected drop into May however, and the ISM-adjusted measure fell sharply to 51.7 from 57.5 in April and a 7-year high of 59.2 in March.

Strong data puts pressure on ECB. A strong round of May confidence data, which showed the German economy in particular firing at all cylinders, makes the ECB’s very expansionary monetary policy and the implicit easing bias increasingly look out of place. Yesterday, German Ifo surges to highest level since at least 1991, while comments over the past week showed that even at the Executive Board there are now voices calling for a signal to markets that exit steps are underway, so that Praet, who favours a very cautious and extremely gradual move out of the easy policy, will face pressure to move not just to a neutral stance, but to introduce a tightening bias, which would pave the way for an announcement on tapering in September. If the central bank starts to cut back monthly purchase volumes by EUR 10 bln a month starting from early next year, rate hikes could come earlier than many expect, even if the ECB sticks with the current sequence of tweaking rates only after QE has ended.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB – ECB’s President Draghi is due to speak at the First Conference on Financial Stability organized by Bank of Spain, in Madrid, at 12:45 GMT.

BoC Rate Decision – The Bank of Canada’s rate announcement is due today, where no change in the 0.50% rate setting and a continuation of the cautious optimism seen in April is projected for today’s announcement. The data since April’s announcement have revealed recovering growth alongside inflation that is still running below the BoC’s target.

FOMC Minutes – The FOMC minutes are due today, while Kaplan will speak at the CD Howe Institute Annual Dinner, in Toronto.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Thu May 25, 2017 9:49 am

Date : 25th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th May 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher, with Chinese equities in particular shrugging off yesterday’s ratings downgrade and the CSI 300 rising more than 1%. A jump in oil prices ahead of a key producers meeting underpinned sentiment. The Fed minutes yesterday were relatively dovish, but still said that recent economic and inflation weakness is expected to pass. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are moving higher and it seems risk appetite has returned to stock markets. Bund futures still climbed in after hour trade yesterday, but this could fade with improving risk appetite. Today’s calendar has second GDP readings for Q1 from Spain and the U.K. as well as U.K. BBA loans for house purchase.

US reports: 2.3% U.S. April existing home sales drop to a 5.57 mln rate from a 5.70 (was 5.71) mln cycle-high slightly undershot estimates, following a February drop to a 5.47 mln clip from a 5.69 mln prior cycle-high in January, as the winter existing home sales boost from mild weather as also seen with yesterday’s new home sales report. A 3.5% April median price rise to $244,800 left a tiny gap to the $247,600 all-time high last June, while inventories rose 7.2% in April to a still-lean 1.93 mln. Existing home sales are on track for a 5% rise in 2017, following a 3.9% increase in 2016 and a 6.5% rise in 2015, but a 2.9% 2014 post “taper-tantrum” drop.

Bank of Canada: left policy unchanged, as widely expected, though there were some changes in the statement that generated some market volatility. The BoC altered the key final line to say the current degree of monetary stimulus is appropriate “at present” versus April’s “still appropriate.” The Bank of Canada maintained its cautiously constructive outlook for growth and inflation, as expected. An ongoing improvement in domestic and global growth suggests further satisfaction with the evolution of the recovery. A change in verbiage on the current degree of monetary stimulus to “appropriate at present” from “still appropriate” prompted a fresh reading of the tea leaves, but did not change the outlook for monetary policy.

FOMC minutes indicated a hike could be seen “soon.” However, there was a caveat that it “Members generally judged it would be prudent” to wait to ensure the Q1 slowing was temporary before tightening further. The minutes also included a staff outline of a plan on the balance sheet which would showed gradually increasing run-off caps every three months which would eventually hit fully phased in levels which would then be held at that level until the size of the balance sheet was normalized. Nearly all policymakers supported this plan. The minutes indicated that the Q1 slowing was likely “transitory” and participants generally agreed that the medium term outlook on the economy was little changed — but again there was that caveat noted above. A June hike is widely expected, and another in September, but the outlook over the rate path in 2H is a little more uncertain considering the potential for balance sheet roll off to begin later in 2017.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Prelim. GDP Q1 – The second estimate of the Q1 GDP report is out today and it is anticipated to come in unrevised at 0.3% q/q and 2.1% y/y.

OPEC – OPEC meets today and is expected to extend its agreement to curtail output.

US Unemployment Claims – Initial claims data for the week of May 20 are out today and an increase is expected in the headline to 238k from 232k last week and 236k in the week prior to that. Claims are poised to average a stronger 236k in May, down from 243k in April and 251k in Marc.

Fedspeak – Fed’s Brainard will participate in a panel discussion on the global economy at 14:00 GMT, in Washington DC.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is fully regulated and licensed onlineForex and commodities broker
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Fri May 26, 2017 9:44 am

Date : 26th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th May 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south as oil prices fell amid disappointment over the OPEC’s decision to prolong supply cuts for nine months, with investors hoping for more than an extension of current measures. The front end WTI future is trading at just USD 48.62 per barrel and lower than expected oil prices, coupled with a strong EUR also mean the ECB could well cut back its inflation forecast at the June meeting. More ammunition then for the likes of Constancio, who yesterday evening once again stressed that inflation is not yet on a sustainable path towards desired levels. UK100 futures are little changed, after managing to post a marginal gain yesterday against losses on Eurozone bourses. Today’s calendar remains quiet, with only Italian confidence data and after public holidays in many Eurozone countries yesterday many have taking today off for a long weekend, so that trading conditions may well be quieter again than normal.

US reports: revealed an array of downside disappointments in the April advance indicators report for the trade deficit, and wholesale and retail inventories, though we also saw another round of super-tight initial claims figures that capped the damage. Inventory revisions in the March data trimmed our Q1 GDP estimate for today’s report to 0.8% from 0.9%, versus a 0.7% advance figure. The tight 234k claims figure for the third week of May suggests upside risk for May nonfarm payroll estimate.

ECB’s Constancio: Overall risks remain tilted to the downside, stressing once again that “monetary stimulus remains important to ensure a sustainable adjustment of the inflation process towards levels consistent with the ECB price stability objective”. The central bank’s Vice President clearly pushed back against calls to start signaling exit steps and stressed that “a sustainable adjustment” of inflation has not yet occurred, even as inflation is starting to adjust towards desired level. At the same time, he suggested that negative rates could become part of the “conventional toolkit of central banks for fighting recessions”

UK Q1 GDP data was unexpectedly revised lower in the second estimate. This compares to the 0.7% q/q growth seen in Q4, and also shows the UK economy to be underperforming the Eurozone’s growth rate of 0.5%. The data shows the UK economy has started the year on a weaker than expected footing, and while April PMI survey data tentatively portended a rebound in early Q2, the backdrop of negative household income growth and a May CBI retail sector survey showing a sharp slowing in consumer activity suggests that the UK is set for a relatively rocky path this year. The BoE has been anticipating weakness, having trimmed its 2017 GDP forecast to 1.9% from 2.0% in its quarterly inflation report in early May.

Main Macro Events Today

US Durable Goods – Durable orders are seen dropping to -1.4%, erasing the 1.7% in March, and ending a string of three straight monthly gains.

UoM Consumer Sentiment – The final reading on May consumer confidence from the University of Michigan survey is seen at 97.5 from, 97.7.

US Prelim. GDP – Q1 GDP is expected to be revised up to a 0.9% rate of growth from the 0.7% Advance report.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is fully regulated and licensed onlineForex and commodities broker
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Mon May 29, 2017 11:56 am

Date : 29th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th May 2017.


Image

FX News Today

Despite a lot of zigs and zags in global equities in recent weeks, the markets are solidly in the green for May, as well as over the last six months. Supporting the gains have been real improvement in most key economies, and hopes for accelerating growth over 2H. Curiously, most longer dated sovereign bonds have rallied too, supported in part by ongoing central bank accommodation and now safe haven and month-end flows.

United States: The U.S. calendar reboots on Tuesday after the long Memorial Day weekend with a variety of data on tap and all roads leading to the May payrolls report, which could have a profound impact on the Fed’s immediate outlook for another “gradual” rate hike in June that has been largely (80%) priced in. April nonfarm payrolls (Friday) are expected to increase by 182k, with a 98k private payroll gain, which would keep the policy trajectory on track. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from 4.4% last month and the workweek is expected to hold at 34.4 for a third month. Initial claims should average 243k in April from 251k in March. Ahead of the payrolls release April personal income (Tuesday) is forecast to rise 0.4%, while spending is seen up 0.6% and core PCE prices are set to rise just 0.2%. MBA mortgage market report (Wednesday) will be accompanied by May Chicago PMI, seen slipping to 57.5 from 58.3, along with April NAR pending home sales steady at 111.4. Data really gets crammed (Thursday) after the holiday break, as the ADP employment survey is set to rise 190k in May from 177k. Also on tap (Thursday) are no less than productivity, initial jobless claims, construction spending, ISM, auto sales and EIA energy inventories. The week rounds out with the full trade report (Friday) after the payrolls report.

Canada: Canada’s economic calendar is packed with data this week. The Q1 GDP and March GDP reports (both Wednesday) highlight, while April trade (Friday) will also be on considerable interest. The trade balance (Friday) is seen improving to a C$0.1 bln surplus from the -C$0.1 bln deficit in March. Labor productivity (Friday) is expected to expand 1.1% in Q1 (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% gain in Q4. The IPPI (Tuesday) is projected to surge 1.0% m/m in April following the 0.8% rise in March. The current account deficit (Tuesday) is anticipated to worsen to -C$11.5 bln in Q1 from -C$10.7 bln in Q4. The May Markit manufacturing PMI is due Thursday. Dealer reported vehicle sales are anticipated Thursday or Friday. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week, with the next event the release of the Financial System Review on June 8th.

Europe: The battles for direction at the ECB seem to be in full swing even ahead of the June 8 council meeting and after Coeure suggested that gradualism is falling out of favor even at the Executive Board. The heavy weights Draghi and Praet hit back last week, stressing that inflation is still not on a sustainable path toward the target. So, this month’s solid round of confidence data, which will be rounded off by the ESI sentiment indicator on Tuesday, may confirm that the recovery continues to strengthen and broaden. A slight improvement in the ESI is expected, which would leave the May round of confidence data again confirming that growth continues to strengthen. PMIs also suggest that the companies are taking on more staff and with German Ifo readings jumping higher this month, the German jobless number expected to decline a further -15K, in May which would leave the jobless rate at the record low of 5.8%. The April Eurozone unemployment rate meanwhile is seen falling to 9.4%. Eurozone inflation numbers are expected to fall back in May, after the Easter fueled jump in April. A German headline rate (Tuesday) of 1.7% y/y down from 2.0% y/y in the previous month, while overall Eurozone HICP (Wednesday) is seen falling to 1.5% y/y from 1.9% y/y, arguably below the ECB’s definition of price stability as below but close to 2%. Data releases also include Eurozone M3, German retail sales and French consumer confidence, Italian HICP, as well as German import price inflation and French and Eurozone PPI readings.

UK: London markets are closed today for a UK public holiday. The calendar thereafter brings April lending data from the BoE (Wednesday) and the first two of the three PMI surveys for May, with manufacturing (Thursday) and construction (Friday), which are due ahead of the services report (due out the following Monday). The lending data has us expecting a GBP 1.5 bln tally for net consumer credit, which would be near underlying trend.

Japan: In Japan, things kick off on Tuesday with April unemployment, where the jobless rate is seen steady at 2.8%. The job offers/seekers ratio likely held steady at 1.45. April personal income and PCE are due Tuesday. April retail sales (Tuesday) should be flat versus -0.8% y/y for large retailers, and slow modestly to a 2.0% y/y clip from up 2.1% overall. April industrial production (Wednesday) is penciled in accelerating to a 3.0% y/y rate from 1.9% previously. April housing starts and construction orders are also due Wednesday, with the former seen dropping to a 1.0% y/y pace of contraction from the previous 0.2% rate. The May Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is expected steady at 52.7. April auto sales are due Thursday.

Australia: Australia’s calendar features private capital expenditures (Thursday), expected to rebound 1.0% in Q1 (q/q, sa) after the 2.1% tumble in Q4. Retail sales (Thursday) are seen recovering 0.1% m/m in April after the 0.1% dip in March. Building approvals (Tuesday) are projected to bounce 5.0% m/m in April after the 13.4% plunge in March. The Reserve Bank of Australia is silent this week. The next event is the Reserve Bank Board Meeting on June 6.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has April building permits (Tuesday) and the Q1 terms of trade (Thursday). But the main event this week is the release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Financial Stability Report.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Tue May 30, 2017 9:34 am

Date : 30th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th May 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stocks didn’t manage to make much headway. Hong Kong was on holiday and Chinese markets remained shut for a second day. Japan’s indices moved sideways swinging between gains and losses and the ASX is currently up a modest 0.33%. A stronger Yen weighed on Japanese markets and comments from ECB President Draghi yesterday that the Eurozone economy still needs substantial monetary support may have been designed to dampen tapering speculation, but also seem to have rekindled growth concerns especially as talk of early elections in Italy sparked a fresh wave of risk aversion and political concerns. Italian bond and stock markets underperformed, EMU spreads widened and the EUR remains under pressure as U.K. and U.S. return from their holidays and the data calendar heats up. Ahead of the June council meeting today’s Eurozone ESI confidence reading and the preliminary German HICP number will be watched very carefully. The busy calendar also has French consumption and final Q1 GDP, as well as Spanish inflation and Swedish GDP.

Draghi: Economy still needs extraordinary ECB support. Draghi said the ECB “remains firmly convinced that an extraordinary amount of monetary policy support, including through our forward guidance, is still necessary”. Speaking at his hearing before the European Parliament, Draghi said domestic cost pressures, notably from wages, are still insufficient to support a durable and self-sustaining convergence of inflation toward our medium-term objective”. More indications then that the ECB heavy weights are pushing back against a too drastic change of the forward guidance at the June policy meeting.

ECB’s Weidmann: Exit Debate legitimate given price outlook. The Bundesbank President said late yesterday that “in light of subdued price pressures, an expansionary monetary policy continues to be appropriate in principle”, but added that “given the continued economic recovery and a – by all forecasts predicted – inflation rate of just below 2 percent in the year 2019, it is indeed legitimate to ask when the ECB council should consider a monetary policy normalization”. Weidmann admitted that inflation will slow in the second half of the year as base effects from energy prices fall out of the equation and that despite stronger growth “price stability beyond traditionally very volatile energy costs are still quite muted”.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone ESI – Eurozone Economic Confidence is expected to rise slightly to 110.1 in May from 109.6. Preliminary consumer confidence came in better than expected, while EMU PMIs moved sideways at very high levels, and against that background a slight improvement in the ESI is expected, which would leave the May round of confidence data again confirming that growth continues to strengthen.

German May HICP – Eurozone inflation numbers are expected to fall back in May, after the Easter fueled jump in April. The German headline rate expected at 1.6% y/y down from 2.0% y/y in the previous month.

US Data – April personal income is forecast to rise 0.4%, while spending is seen up 0.6% and core PCE prices are set to rise just 0.2%. S&P Case-Shiller home prices are expected to rise 0.5% in March and May consumer confidence is projected to hold at an elevated 120.1 vs 120.30 in April.

Canada Current Account – The current account deficit, is expected to widen to -C$11.5 bln in Q1 from -C$10.7 bln in Q4.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Wed May 31, 2017 9:43 am

Date : 31st May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st May 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed. Chinese stocks initially moved higher after returning from holiday and following better than expected PMI readings, which showed steady expansion in the manufacturing sector and improvement in non-manufacturing. But Hang Seng and CSI 300 are now marginally in the red and the Nikkei is down -0.27%, while the ASX is clinging on to a marginal gain. Not much enthusiasm amid investors then in Asia, although FTSE 100 and U.S. futures are moving higher. Sterling remains under pressure as the election gets nearer and May’s lead in the polls declines, but that is supporting the FTSE 100, which is dominated by large multinationals. Better than expected consumer confidence data overnight, also adds support. And so far the weaker Pound hasn’t hurt Gilts, which outperformed again yesterday. In the Eurozone, yesterday’s source story suggesting that the ECB will up its growth assessment in June helped to counterbalance Draghi’s dovish comments from Monday, which had rekindled concerns about the health of the economy, and that helped Bund futures to come back from lows and spreads to come in and today’s expected decline in the Eurozone HICP reading to just 1.4% will add further support. The data calendar also has French and Italian inflation numbers, as well as German retail sales and labour market data.

FX Update: Sterling took a 0.5% clobber on a UK election poll form YouGov suggesting that the support for the Tory party had fallen again, to the point that the governing party would loose its majority at the June-8 election and leave Britain with a hung parliament (with the Tories at 310 seats, down from the 330 seats it presently has and below the 326 level needed for a majority, and versus 257 seats for Labour). The poll does contrast other surveys pointing to the Conservatives wining, though will likely see sterling continue to underperform into the election. Cable logged a 1.2787 low, bringing last week’s near six-week low at 1.2774 back into scope. Elsewhere, the narrow USD index is showing a modest gain on the day after falling yesterday following a mixed-bag of U.S. data. EURUSD lifted above 1.1100 during the Asia session before settling in the upper 1.10s, up on yesterday’s 13-day low at 1.1066. USDJPY popped back above 111.0 during Tokyo trade, extending the rebound from yesterday’s 13-day low at 110.66. Japanese industrial production rose 4% m/m in the preliminary estimate for April, up form the 1.9% m/m decline in March but below the Reuters median forecast for a 4.3% growth outcome.

U.S. reports: revealed a firm April round of personal income figures with a strong trajectory of consumption into Q2, though the report also incorporated big downward Q2-Q3 income revisions seen in Friday’s GDP report. We saw a May consumer confidence drop to a still-robust 117.9 from 119.4 in April and a 16-year high of 124.9 in March, leaving confidence above prior readings of 116.1 in February and 111.6 in January. The Dallas Fed index rose 17.2 from 16.8 in April, versus an 11-year high of 24.5 in February, while the ISM-adjusted Dallas Fed rose more sharply to a 2-year high of 55.4 from 53.8 in April, with a 6-year high of 15.7 for the workweek.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone HICP – The Eurozone number is expected to fall to 1.5% y/y from 1.9% y/y in April. If this is confirmed this would be once again firmly below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability and thus give Draghi and Praet, who remain cautious with regard to any changes in the forward guidance something to argue with at the June meeting. Growth may be stabilising and strengthening, but the inflation trajectory still looks subdued, especially as oil price forecasts on which the March ECB staff projections were based, turned out to be too high.

Canada Q1 GDP – Q1 GDP expected to accelerate to a 3.9% pace (q/q, saar) from the 2.6% growth rate in Q4. The expected gain would be close to the BoC’s estimate of 3.8% but well short of the 4.5% pace implied by the monthly GDP series.

US Chicago PMI and Pending Homes – May Chicago PMI, seen slipping to 57.0 from 58.3, along with April NAR pending home sales at 0.3% rise from -0.8%.

Fedspeak & Fed’s Beige Book – Dallas Fed hawk Kaplan (voter) will speak on international economics at 12 GMT. Additionally, the Beige Book for the June 13-14 FOMC will be released and should retain the modest-to-moderate mantra with reference to growth, with all 12 Districts likely repeating gains

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is fully regulated and licensed onlineForex and commodities broker
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:58 am

Date : 1st June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st June 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher on the first day of June, led by Japanese stocks, which rallied amid a weaker Yen. Chinese stocks underperformed after China’s private manufacturing PMI disappointed, which revived concerns about the health of the Chinese economy. Yesterday’s official PMIs came in better than expected and investors are waiting for more data out of Europe and the U.S. to get a clearer picture of the outlook for the world economy. The CSI is marginally lower, but the Hang Seng is up 0.45%. U.S. and FTSE 100 futures are also posting gains. Most European markets closed in the red yesterday, after a mixed session, that saw the FTSE 100 reaching new record highs, before falling back again. The DAX managed to claw on to a 0.13% gain at the close, but mixed messages from ECB officials are unsettling investors and Eurozone spreads blew out again in late trade, as peripheral yields backed up. Gilt yields also jumped higher as Sterling remains under pressure ahead of the June 8 election. Already released Swiss GDP numbers came in weaker than expected at just 0.3% q/q and 1.1% y/y. The rest of the calendar focuses on manufacturing PMI readings.

US reports: U.S. Chicago PMI presented an increase to 59.4 in May from April’s 58.3. The number was originally reported as an unexpectedly large decline to 55.2 which was a real turn around and puts the index at its highest level since November 2014. U.S. pending home sales index dropped 1.3% to 109.8 in April following the 0.9% decline to 111.3 in March after jumping 5.5% in February to 112.3

BoC Outlook: Steady policy remains the base-case scenario, as the 3.7% gain in real Q1 GDP was a nearly perfect match to the BoC’s 3.8% estimate. However, despite the positive data, yesterday WTI crude fell to four-session lows of $48.30/bbl into the N.Y. open, with oversupply concerns remaining in place. Libya production has been the weight on oil today, which is not constrained by the OPEC/NOPEC output cut deal, and has recently upped its production to nearly 800k bpd, up from about 550k bpd in April, according to OPEC data. Increased Libya output, plus ever-increasing U.S. shale production, has offset a good bit of OPEC production cuts, weighing on oil prices.

Eurozone unemployment falls more than expected to 9.3% in April, while March was revised down to 9.4% from 9.5% reported initially. The number comes at the heel of a record low German jobless rate for May and ties in with PMI reports suggesting that companies continue to take on more staff. So the economy continues and growth is strengthen and clearly boosting the outlook for the labour market, but jobless rates remain very uneven across countries, youth unemployment remains far too high and most importantly for the ECB, wage growth on a Eurozone aggregate level remains quite low.

Main Macro Events Today

EU Manufacturing PMI – EMU manufacturing PMI expected to be unchanged, while in UK, a moderate correction in the PMI headlines is expected, forecasting 56.5 in the manufacturing survey following April’s 57.3 reading, and a 52.5 outcome in the construction PMI after 53.1 in the month prior. The manufacturing sector has been holding up solidly since the Brexit vote last June.

US Manufacturing PMI – The May ISM should post a rise to 54.7 from 54.8 in April and 57.2 in March. Despite some divergent headline swings in the early month reports the component data was firm which should pose some upside risk to the release.

Cad. Manufacturing PMI – The May Markit manufacturing PMI is due today.

US ADP, Jobless Claims & Oil Invent. – Claims data for the week of May 27 should reveal a 239k headline following 234k last week and 233k in the week prior. ADP employment survey is set to rise 185k in May from 177k. Oil inventories for last week expected to fall to -2.7M from the -4.4M barrels 2 weeks ago.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is fully regulated and licensed onlineForex and commodities broker
User avatar
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Posts: 657
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:34 am

Date : 2nd June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd June 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, with Japan outperforming. The Nikkei 225 breached the 20000 mark for the first time since December 2015, amid a weaker yen and positive economic data including U.S. auto sales yesterday, which showed positive reports for Japan’s car makers. The background of positive corporate profits is attracting investors and helped to underpin the rebound since the low on April 14. Hang Seng and ASX 200 are moved higher after Europe and Wall Street closed with gains on Thursday, but the CSI underperformed and declined as the offshore Chinese yuan hit its highest level since October yesterday. Looking ahead U.S. and U.K. futures are extending gains this morning with investors looking to U.S. employment data, amid a pretty quiet calendar in Europe, which includes the U.K. Construction PMI as well as Eurozone Producer Prices. With risk appetite coming back and stock markets continuing to trend higher, core yields are likely to extend their move higher.

White House: President Trump will pull the U.S. out of the Paris climate accord. The administration was saying the agreement was a “bad deal” for all Americans as it front loaded costs. President Trump is keeping his campaign promise with this decision. Oil prices slumped to the $48.30 area from about $49.20 earlier. Also, Wall Street remained firm near the day’s highs with the Dow hovering in the 21,110 regions.

US reports: revealed firm May ISM and ADP readings of 54.9 and 253k respectively, with an ISM jobs index rise to 53.5 from 52.0, that added upside risk to our 195k May payroll estimate. The Initial claims bounce to 248k that still left a lean 238k May average. There were some disappointing April construction spending figures as the sector gave back some of its winter weather-boost, and though the Q1 figures were revised higher on net, most of the boost was in the home improvement component that doesn’t directly enter GDP. We more importantly saw downward nonresidential construction revisions that weakened the path for that sector. Early May vehicle sales data are showing a tiny uptick to a 16.9 mln clip from rates of 16.8 mln in April and 16.5 mln in March, leaving a likely 0.1% May retail sales drop with a 0.2% ex-auto auto decline, thanks to an estimated 7% May slide in gasoline prices and likely restraint in sales of building materials.

ECB Focus Remains on Inflation Not Growth. Despite the confusion over Draghi’s dovish comments at the start of the week, central bankers seem to agree that the recovery is looking increasingly strong and balanced. But while the ECB is likely to up its assessment on the growth outlook at next week’s meeting, headline inflation fell back to just 1.4% this month and updated set of inflation projections could likely to be scaled back, as oil prices are lower than anticipated in March and the EUR stronger.

Main Macro Events Today

U.S. NFP, Trade Deficit, Unemployment Rate – The April trade data is out today and we expect to see a 7.5% expansion in the deficit to -$46.1 bln from -$43.7 bln in March and -$43.8 bln in February. Also, May employment data is should post a 185k headline from 211k in April and 79k in March. The unemployment rate should hold steady at 4.4% for a second month, down from 4.5% in March.

Canada Productivity – The trade balance is seen improving to a C$0.1 bln surplus from the -C$0.1 bln deficit in March. Exports are seen rising 1.0% in April after the 3.8% surge in March. Imports are expected to rise just 0.5% m/m in April after the 1.7% gain in March. Labor productivity is expected to expand 0.2% in Q1 (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% gain in Q4.

UK PMI Construction – The construction PMI expected to fall at 52.7 from 53.1 last month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is fully regulated and licensed onlineForex and commodities broker
User avatar
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 657
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:44 pm

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