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Daily market news by Cozfx

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Re: Daily market news by Cozfx

Postby dwang » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:59 am

COZfx: JPY weaker in Asia after trade data

COZforex: The yen traded weaker in Asia on Monday with trade data showing better than expected figures though exports and imports declined notably ahead of a week that will see the Fed and the Bank of Japan comment on monetary policy.

USD/JPY changed hands at 106.32, up 0.18%, while AUD/USD traded at 0.7478, up 0.17%. GBP/USD traded at 1.3135, up 0.19%.

In Japan, the adjusted trade balance came in at a surplus of ¥33 billion, better than the ¥24 billion seen and imports eased 18.8%, less than the 19.7% drop expected and exports fell 7.4%, less than the 11.6% decline seen. The overall trade balance came in at a surplus of ¥693 billion, better than the ¥495 billion expected.

Ahead this week, investors will look to Wednesday’s highly-anticipated Federal Reserve policy statement for fresh guidance on the pace of interest rate hikes over the next several months and a monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Japan on Friday, amid growing expectations for further stimulus.

Last week, the US dollar rallied to a four-month high against a basket of major currencies on Friday, boosted by the diverging monetary policy outlook between the Federal Reserve and other global central banks.

A recent string of better than expected US data reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of the year. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in a 45% chance of a rate hike by December, compared with less than 20% a week ago and up from 9% at the start of this month.


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Re: Daily market news by Cozfx

Postby dwang » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:31 am

COZfx: GBP/USD slips lower despite UK GDP data

COZforex: The pound slipped lower against the US dollar on Wednesday, despite upbeat UK second quarter growth data, as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement due later in the day and the Bank of England’s policy meeting next week.

GBP/USD hit 1.3106 amid European morning trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3113, slipping 0.14%. In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: GBP/USD was likely to find support at 1.2968, the low of July 12 and resistance at 1.3293, the high of July 22.

The UK Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product rose 0.6% in the three months to June, above forecasts for growth of 0.4%. The UK economy grew by 0.4% in the previous quarter.

Year-over-year, UK economic growth expanded 2.2% in the second quarter, also above the forecast for an expansion of 2.0%. The UK economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in the first quarter.

The second quarter data is the final measure of growth in the run-up to the UK’s June 23 referendum that resulted in Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, known as a Brexit.

According to a Bloomberg survey released on Wednesday, consensus expects the U.K. to contract by 0.1% in the third quarter.

Investors were now eyeing the BoE’s upcoming policy meeting amid growing expectations for a rate cut.

The Financial Times reported on Tuesday that Martin Weale, a member of the BOE's rate-setting committee, dropped his opposition to an easing and now favoured immediate stimulus.

Market participants were also looking ahead to the Fed’s policy decision due later Wednesday. While most investors expect the Fed to leave its monetary policy unchanged this week, it could give hints on the timing of future rate hikes.


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Re: Daily market news by Cozfx

Postby dwang » Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:02 am

COZfx: AUD weaker despite gain in AIG index, China PMIs ahead

COZforex: The Aussie held weaker despite a surprise jump in the AIG manufacturing index and the yen dropped in Asia on Monday ahead of a busy data day with China manufacturing in focus.

USD/JPY was quoted at 102.36, up 0.32%, while AUD/USD traded at 0.7586, down 0.26%, with the currency's fortunes closely tied to trade with China.

Australia said the AIG manufacturing index for July spiked to 56.4, compared with last month's figure at 51.8. The index rise further in July for the 13th month in a row and marking the longest period of expansion in over a decade. The recovery was mainly due to stronger exports and import replacements, which were helped by a more competitive exchange rate. Then comes HIA new home sales for June with the last figure down 4.4% month-on-month.

In China, the semi-official manufacturing PMI published by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing for July is expected to hit bang-on 50, the same as last month. The CFLP non-manufacturing PMI is also due, with last month's level at 53.7.

Later, the Caixin manufacturing PMI is due with a reading of 48.7 expected for July, which was up a tad from 48.6 the previous month.


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dwang
 
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Re: Daily market news by Cozfx

Postby dwang » Thu Aug 04, 2016 10:24 am

COZfx: USD/CAD pares losses after strong US data

Cozforex: The US dollar pared losses against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, after the release of upbeat US employment data, although falling expectations for a US rate hike this year continued to weigh and higher oil prices boosted the Canadian currency.

USD/CAD eased off 1.3081, the session low, to hit 1.3100 during early US trade, steady for the day. In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: USD/CAD was likely to find support at 1.3000, Tuesday’s low and resistance at 1.3193, the high of July 28.

Payroll processor ADP said the U.S. private sector added 179,000 jobs last month, surpassing expectations for an increase of 170,000. The economy created 176,000 jobs in June, whose figure was revised from a previously reported increase of 172,000, the report said.

While not viewed as a reliable guide for the government jobs report due on Friday, August 5, it does give guidance on private-sector hiring.

But the greenback remained under pressure amid diminished expectations for another rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year after last week’s surprisingly weak data on US second quarter growth.

Earlier in the week, Dallas Fed head Robert Kaplan urged caution on raising US interest rates again amid a raft of risks facing the global economy.

Meanwhile, the commodity-related Canadian dollar was boosted as oil prices moved higher on Wednesday ahead of the weekly US supply data.


(COZ forex UK)
dwang
 
Posts: 328
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Re: Daily market news by Cozfx

Postby dwang » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:57 am

COZfx: ECB warned that Brexit has triggered some volatility & increased uncertainty

COZforex: For the last trading session, the EUR declined 0.18% against the USD and closed at 1.1126.

Yesterday, the European Central Bank, in its latest monthly economic bulletin report, warned that Britain’s decision to leave the European Union has triggered some volatility in global financial markets and increased uncertainty about the global economic outlook. It further revealed that economic recovery in the Euro-bloc is expected to proceed at a moderate pace and also noted that incoming economic data for second quarter pointed towards subdued global activity and trade.

In other economic news, Germany’s Markit construction PMI advanced to a level of 51.6 in July, compared to a level of 50.4 in the preceding month.

Macroeconomic data released in the US indicated that, the number of Americans filing for fresh unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose to a level of 269.0K in the week ended 30 July, compared to market expectations of a drop to a level of 265.0K and following a reading of 266.0K. Also, the nation’s factory orders fell for the second straight month, declining by 1.5% on a monthly basis in June, lower than market expectations for a fall of 1.9% and after recording a revised drop of 1.2% in the prior month. Further, final durable goods orders dropped by 3.9% in June, compared to a revised fall of 2.8% in the prior month while markets anticipated it to ease by 4.0%.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.1112 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1092; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1153, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1174.

Moving forward, investors would concentrate on Germany’s factory orders for June, slated to release in a few hours. Moreover, in the US, non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and Trade Balance data, due later today, will also keep investors on their toes.


(COZ forex UK)
dwang
 
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Re: Daily market news by Cozfx

Postby dwang » Thu Aug 11, 2016 4:44 am

COZfx: NZD gains despite RBNZ rate cut to record low 2.0%

COZforex: The kiwi gained in Asia on Thursday despite a central bank 25 basis points cut in the official cash rate to a record low 2% and said further reduction were possible if needed.

NZD/USD traded at 0.7280, up 0.93% after the decision, Elsewhere, AUD/USD traded at 0.7714, up 0.13%, while USD/JPY changed hands at 101.21, down 0.07%.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of 6 major currencies, was last quoted at 95.59.

Overnight, the dollar remained broadly lower against the other major currencies on Wednesday, as Tuesday’s downbeat US data continued to dampen optimism over the strength of the economy.

The greenback weakened after data showed that US nonfarm productivity dropped by 0.5% in the second quarter, disappointing expectations for a 0.4% rise, after a 0.6% slip in the three months to March.

The weak data overshadowed last week’s strong US nonfarm payrolls report, which had boosted expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year and sent the US dollar broadly higher.


(COZ forex UK)
dwang
 
Posts: 328
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Re: Daily market news by Cozfx

Postby dwang » Fri Aug 19, 2016 7:13 am

COZfx: Japanese trade surplus contracted in July amid strength in the Japanese Yen

COZforex: For the last trading session, the USD declined 0.31% against the JPY and closed at 99.96.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 100.02, with the USD trading 0.06% higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data indicated that, Japan’s total merchandise trade surplus narrowed to ¥513.5 billion in July, amid weaker demand and a stronger Yen. The nation posted a revised trade surplus of ¥693.1 billion in the previous month while markets expected a trade surplus of ¥273.2 billion. Meanwhile, the nation’s exports fell at the fastest pace in seven years, after it dropped 14.0% YoY in July, more than market expectations for a drop of 13.7% and after registering a fall of 7.4% in the previous month. Further, imports eased more-than-anticipated by 24.7% on an annual basis in July, compared to market expectations for a fall of 20.0% and following a drop of 18.8% in the prior month.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/JPY is predicted to find support at 99.38 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 98.73; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 100.91, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 101.79.

Moving ahead, Japan’s all industry activity index for June, slated to release tomorrow morning, would be on investor’s radar.


(COZ forex UK)
dwang
 
Posts: 328
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Re: Daily market news by Cozfx

Postby dwang » Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:21 am

COZfx: AUD, NZD slightly down in Asia after data sets, Yellen eyed

COZforex: The NZD and AUD trended weaker on Wednesday after data sets that missed expectations and as cautious trade ruled ahead of remarks due at the end of the week from the Fed chief.

In Australia, construction work done slumped 3.7% in the second quarter, well below the fall of 1.9% seen quarter-on-quarter. Earlier, in New Zealand, the trade balance for July came in at a deficit of NZ$433 million month-on-month and at a deficit of NZ$3.03 billion year-on-year, both wider than expected.

NZD/USD traded at 0.7285, down 0.05%, while AUD/USD traded at 0.7614, down 0.01%. USD/JPY changed hands at 100.26, up 0.02%.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.03% to 94.53.

Overnight, the dollar remained broadly lower against the other major currencies on Tuesday, as investors remained cautious ahead of Friday’s speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.

Market participants are waiting to see if Yellen will restate the hawkish view of the economy expressed by Fed officials in recent weeks or echo the minutes of the Fed’s July meeting, which indicated that officials are divided on when to raise rates.


(COZ forex UK)
dwang
 
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Re: Daily market news by Cozfx

Postby dwang » Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:57 am

COZfx: German inflation unexpectedly stagnated in August

COZforex: For the last trading session, the EUR declined 0.34% against the USD and closed at 1.1146, after Germany’s preliminary consumer price index unexpectedly remained flat on a monthly basis in August, piling pressure on the European Central Bank to introduce additional monetary policy measures to meet its inflation target. Meanwhile, markets expected the CPI to advance by 0.1%, following a rise of 0.3% in the previous month. On the other hand, the nation’s import price index unexpectedly climbed by 0.1% in July, compared to market expectations for a fall of 0.1% and after recording a rise of 0.5% in the previous month.

Separately, in the Euro-zone, the economic sentiment indicator deteriorated to a level of 103.5 in August, hitting its lowest level since March 2016, indicating that consumers are becoming more pessimistic about the region’s economic growth. The economic sentiment indicator had recorded a revised reading of 104.5 in the previous month. Moreover, the region’s final consumer confidence index eased to a level of -8.5 in August, in line with market expectations and compared to a revised reading of -7.9 in the previous month.

The US Dollar gained ground, after the US consumer confidence index rose more-than-expected to a level of 101.1 in August, notching its highest level in eleven-months, adding to signs that the world’s largest economy was regaining steam in the second half of the year. The index had registered a revised reading of 96.7 in the previous month.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.1132 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1105; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1181, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1203.

Moving ahead, market participants would keep a close eye on the unemployment rate data across the Euro-zone and the region’s consumer price index data, slated to release in a few hours. Moreover, in the US, the ADP employment change and pending home sales data, due later in the day, would keep investor’s on their toes.


(COZ forex UK)
dwang
 
Posts: 328
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 6:24 am

Re: Daily market news by Cozfx

Postby dwang » Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:00 am

COZfx: UK’s manufacturing PMI soared to a ten-month high level in August

COZforex: For the last trading session, the GBP rose 0.96% against the USD and closed at 1.3269, after UK’s seasonally adjusted Markit manufacturing PMI advanced above expectations to a level of 53.3 in August, jumping back into the expansion territory and notching its highest level in ten-months, boosting speculation that the Bank of England might rethink on the need to cut interest rate again. The index recorded a revised level of 48.3 in the previous month, compared to market expectations for an advance to a level of 49.0.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.3284, with the GBP trading 0.11% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.3168 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3051; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3359, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3433.

Looking forward, investors would look forward to UK’s Markit construction PMI data for August, slated to release in a few hours.


(COZ forex UK)
dwang
 
Posts: 328
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