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Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: October 5, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:00 am

The EUR/USD pair had increased volatility levels and was able to break through the small-scale trading range and went through the larger-scale trading range of 1.1145 and 1.1245 points. The early part of the trading session saw the USD gaining strength after it lost a significant amount of its value last week. The euro was also able to break through its previous support levels of 1.1200 to gain new support levels of 1.1145 before going as low as 1.1137 points. The EUR/USD pair was also affected by the news that the ECB is currently studying the tapering of the QE.

The EUR/USD went back at 1.1200 after the ECB rumors and went as far as 1.1238 before another headline was released, saying that this particular rumor with regards to the QE was not discussed in any of the ECB’s meetings, prompting the currency pair to go back down at 1.1200 points.

This highly volatile movement of the currency pair is a positive sign for traders who are currently looking for market volatility. The market is currently not expecting any major news announcements from the EU, with the US ADP Non-Farm Employment data the only announcement expected from the US market. The ADP data will act as a precursor for the NFP announcement on Friday which is expected to provide a useful insight on the current state of the US economy.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 7, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:09 am

The sterling pound continued to plummet during Thursday’s trading session, after the GBP/USD pair dropped to 1.2601, its lowest ever in 31 years. The currency pair also decreased by 400 pips or roughly 5% during the Asian trading session in just a matter of minutes. Prior to the Tokyo session, the GBP/USD pair traded with a 10-pip spread and the currency’s charts portraying lows at 1.2000 and below. However, there is no clear reason yet as to what caused the currency pair to suddenly backslide. Analysts are expecting that the currency pair would further drop in the coming sessions due to massive political and economic uncertainties, as well as deterioration of the UK economy.

The GBP/USD was able to immediately revert back to the 1.2400 trading range. However, the technical indicators for the pair is presently erratic due to its recent activity. However, if the GBP/USD manages to maintain its risk levels below 1.2500 points then the currency pair would be able to recover even up to 1.2600. Market analysts are however warning traders that more sharp declines and sudden surges are to be expected in the upcoming trading sessions, particularly during this period that traders and investors are awaiting the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls data in order to gauge the level by which they would resume their selling based on the stance of the pair.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 7, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:56 am

The USD/CAD pair continued to consolidate for the duration of today’s trading session although it initially attempted to break through resistance levels at 1.3250 points following a late onset of the US dollar’s strength but was immediately countered by a sudden wave of sellers, causing the pair to drop below 1.3200.

Support levels for the pair came in at the 1.3180 trading range with resistance levels at 1.3250. These indicators are expected to maintain the USD/CAD’s price action for today’s session. The price action for the pair is largely dependent on economic data to be released today, such as the US non-farm payrolls data which is scheduled to be released today together with employment reports from Canada. The USD/CAD pair is then expected to have increased volatility compared with other currency pairs due to the release of these highly relevant data.

Traders are advised to keep out of today’s session since the economic data from Canada and US are expected to come out at opposite terms, which can make it hard for traders to predict the pair’s future price actions. Traders are also reminded to avoid the high volatility levels of the currency pair and wait for the increased activity to die down before going to trading on the USD/CAD.

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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 10, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Mon Oct 10, 2016 8:25 am

The JPY went higher in relation to the USD after a long losing streak in nine trading sessions after the release of a somewhat negative US Non-Farm Payrolls report disappointed investors and traders. The USD/JPY pair traded at 102.906, decreasing by -1.00% or 1.042 points.

The US Non-Farm Payrolls report came out at 156,000, way below the expected 177,000 prediction for the NFP in September. Unemployment rates also increased by 5.0% from the previous data release of 4.9%. However, the data for the Average Hourly Earnings increased from 0.1% to 0.2%, with limited trader reactions since the data met its previous expectations.

Investors are now speculating that the disappointment in the US payrolls report makes it impossible for a Fed rate hike in November, but is still strong enough for an interest rate hike in December. Market buyers were also compelled to book their profits due to a slight drop in US Treasury Futures data.

The decrease in the USD/JPY came as a surprise to some investors since the economic data release, although on the negative side, is still strong enough to maintain speculations for an interest rate hike before 2016 ends. The pair is seen to further weaken since Monday is a bank holiday, and the absence of major market players could cause the pair to lose some of its current trading value.

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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 12, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:18 am

The USD/JPY pair closed the last trading session at 103.516 points during the last trading session, dropping by -0.08% or 0.085 after investors flocked to the safe haven currency due to a break in crude oil and stock prices, wiping out the currency pair’s gains during the earlier part of the trading session.

The USD was backed by support from statements that the 10-year yields for the US were at its highest levels in over four months. Due to positive interest rate differentials, the dollar consistently appreciated against the JPY during the past eleven trading sessions, however, the carry trade exhibit last Tuesday proved to be crucial for the US dollar.

Analysts are saying that this particular scenario might be could possibly occur again on Wednesday’s trading session due to the impending release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. These minutes will be of use to market players in order for them to gauge the overall sentiment of Fed officials with regards to the expected interest rate hike in December. Although the meeting minutes from the Fed usually only cause little volatility in the market, analysts are saying that this particular report might become an exception, especially since the USD/JPY is expected to have a reaction to Treasury yields movement and might reflect its price action in the previous trading session.


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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:58 am

In the outset of the US session, the greenbacks heightened and together with the loonies attained the resistance region at 1.3280 despite of the news regarding the undermined the spot price of the oil. The USD CAD remained unaffected even though the FOMC minutes were not released yet. The pair attempted to make a breakthrough over the upper extreme of 1.3290 though it fall short once again and finally settled around 1.3282

Consolidation is still anticipated for a few more days since there is no driving force present that lead the currencies to the level of resistance.

When the fundamentals realized that the issue regarding petroleum prices negatively influence the economy of Canada then it would finally be visible. As a result, there is a possible price modification that would elevate to the 1.3280 resistance, at the same time obtaining the next spot at 1.35 and 1.4000.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:47 am

The pound and greens remain in an uncertain period, the price became affected due to the current events plus some fundamental determinants including the general strength performed by the USD and the risks associated with Brexit, these made the pair to cut loose its gains from the 1.2325 high to 1.2300 region. The subject matter have its way until the EU session which also added to the afflicted factors is the UK Parliament discussion regarding the Brexit activities. This occurrence decreased the pair into 1.2200. Following the statement from FOMC during the US conference because there are three protesters who insisted for a quick hyperinflation. This event is defined to be hawkish as per the market and this made the USD to gain more strength but the GBPUSD approached a lower position at 1.2100.

This morning a major news aided the pound and greens to immediately recuperate due to a weak trades from the Chinese investors, seeing the two to achieve 1.2188 region.

Mainly, GBP/USD is surrounded by news risks considering the fact that its has failing background which cause it to a complicated method in acquiring confident trades. As a result, it is recommended to steer clear of sterling and dollar until it obtain a well-established regions.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 14, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Oct 14, 2016 6:46 am

The GBP/USD pair had a stagnant run during the last trading session after the sudden drop in its value last week. The pair had an average day-to-day range of a minimum of 200 pips. The currency pair is now consolidating between 1.2130 and 1.2550 points, with a possible break in the resistance level of 1.2550 opening the way for the pair to reach 1.2360, allowing the pair to have selling opportunities. The currency pair is now trading within the 1.2557 range and analysts are awaiting whether the pair would break through resistance or come down at the support level.

The GBP/USD continues to be affected by the Brexit, and analysts are speculating the pair will continue resonating its effects for another two years, or until such time that the UK finally completes the referendum.

Market players are now waiting for an announcement from the Bank of England’s Governor Carney, as well as a statement from the Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen and the release of the retail sales data later today. Expect an increased volatility for the pair at the close of today’s trading session. Analysts are generally throwing caution to the wind with regards to transacting with this particular currency pair, especially due to the Brexit and the recent drop in the Chinese economy.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 14, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Oct 14, 2016 7:15 am

The last trading session went bad for the EUR/USD pair due to the release of China’s trade data, which turned out to be extremely lower than expected, with the data showing that the nation’s exports were the most affected sector. The trade data has now led to investors becoming uncertain with regards to the state of the Chinese economy, especially since the Chinese market is one of the largest markets in the world and any movement would certainly affect all major economies. As a result, the Asian stock markets experienced a significant decrease, as well as the S&P500 for the region. Meanwhile, the USD increased its trading value, causing the EUR/USD to reach support levels at 1.1000 points.

The selling for the pair increased in activity which caused the pair to hit support at 1.1000, even going as far as 1.0985. However, the currency pair eventually recovered from the support level and went up to 1.1050 points, with the pair now at the 1.1054 trading range.

Market players are now expecting increased volatility with regards to this currency pair due to the Fed’s statement which is scheduled to be released within the day, as well as the retail sales data to be released from the US. The pair could possibly go into reversal but is expected to immediately get back to its previous trading range during the session.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 17, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Mon Oct 17, 2016 7:15 am

The GBP/USD pair continued to trade ambiguously after traders and investors expressed their uncertainties over the current state of the sterling pound, especially now that the UK’s strategies for Brexit have also become uncertain. The market has become dependent on the decision between the European Union and UK with regards on how to go about the Brexit, but so far this has not created enough stability for the market players.

The pricing of the GBP/USD pair remained highly volatile for the rest of last week’s session, with the pair having reactions to movements from both the European Union and Britain, creating difficulties for those wanting to choose a trade direction for the pair. In the coming weeks, a significant number of economic data is expected to be released which will greatly affect the movement of this particular currency pair. For this week, investors and traders are expecting the release of the US CPI data, as well as the US Presidential Debate. The UK retail sales data as well as the UK CPI data will also be released within the week. The recent data releases for the UK turned out well for the most part, but the uncertainties surrounding the Brexit will most likely affect the market.

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