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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 6, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:40 am

The USD/CAD pair continues to exhibited a very tight price action as the pair’s bulls and bears continue to fight out for the control of the currency pair and is expected to remain as the pair’s dominant trend in the short-term period. The pair has been trapped in a very limited range ever since the currency pair managed to push forward past 1.3500 points with buyers dominating the 1.3400 trading range.

During the past few days, oil prices have remained stable, thereby decreasing the amount of leverage it gave to the Canadian dollar and was one of the reasons why the loonie was unable to take full advantage of the dollar weakness which was due to a series of dismal US employment reports last week. Oil prices has also continued to be very disappointing due to rising tensions in the oil-rich Middle Eastern countries and has subsequently diminished its support for the loonie. In spite of the pair making a headway towards 1.3460 for a short while, it was almost immediately met with several buys, causing the USD/CAD pair to retreat towards 1.3500 points, where it is expected to stay put at least in the coming days. The market is now preparing itself for the trading sessions on Thursday and Friday as the currency pair would most likely undergo a volatile trading session due to Comey’s testimony as well as the release of the Canadian employment report on Friday. This is why traders are advised to remain in the sidelines until such time that a break shows up on the pair’s range before inducing any kind of progress in their trades.

For today’s session, there are now major releases from both the US and the Canadian economy and the USD/CAD pair is expected to continue consolidating throughout the duration of today’s session.


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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 9, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:18 am

The events happened yesterday unexpectedly wrought a slight impact against the USD/CAD, as well as to other currency pairs. However, there are predictions that it would be an explosive day yesterday due to incidents lined up while traders work late at night to secure a safe position and to keep their trades well but everything turned out to be less impressive and unexciting.

The said events are as follows; the decision of ECB to hold its rates paired with the announcement on inflation targets and increasing growth outlook, though it is obviously has nothing to do with the pair. Next is the testimony of Comey after he accused US President Trump with lots of things.

These scenarios were unable to move the dollar and any movement only indicates an insignificant strengthening of the greens that lead the USDCAD near 1.35.

In relation to the Canadian dollar, BOC Governor Poloz delivered a speech expressing his delight about the current condition of their economy. He also stated that he was comfortable regarding the price trend in the housing industry. The neutral tone strike by Poloz reflected towards the commodity-linked pair which continuously trades in a steady and unspecified direction.

Later this day, the Canadian employment figures is anticipated to be release that would likely cause volatility. If the report showed a stronger result, it would help the pair to reach the lows of its tight range close to the 1.3450 level.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 14, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Jun 14, 2017 8:06 am

The EUR/USD pair merely continued its tight trading action during yesterday’s session as the market braces itself for the announcement coming from the FOMC scheduled for today. The currency pair had initially attempted to move towards the bottom if its range but was immediately met with some large-scale buys in the 1.1160-1.1180 range, prompting the currency pair to revert to its original range.

During the previous session, the most important region for the pair’s bulls and bears was the 1.1200 trading range, with the currency pair managing to close down yesterday’s session at just over this particular range. However, this would all be futile if ever the Fed decides to implement another interest rate hike and release a very hawkish statement. As of the moment, the market has priced in a 90% possibility of rate hike, with the Fed neither confirming nor denying rumors of a possible interest rate hike. The market has taken this as a positive signal from the Fed as far as the rate hike is concerned, and this is one of the reasons why the EUR/USD pair is now trading within its range lows paired with somewhat tame bounces in between as the USD continues to hold on to its current value. Now that the rate hike is already priced in, the market will now be shifting its focus towards the FOMC statement, where the central bank is expected give clues with regards to the next rate hike. The next scheduled rate hike was initially scheduled to be implemented this coming September, however a series of negative data from the US economy has caused doubts on whether the central bank will be indeed pushing through with the next rate hike.

Aside from the FOMC rate announcement, the US economy will also be releasing its retail sales data and CPI data, both of which are expected to induce volatility levels into the EUR/USD pair. However, since the market will be focusing today on the rate announcement, a volatility surge is expected right after the release of the FOMC statement.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 16, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:39 am

The EUR/USD pair exhibited a correction during the past 24 hours as the US dollar regained its strength following the recent Fed rate hike. This was pretty much expected for the EUR/USD pair once the London session commenced and were able to react on this recent development from the US economy.

The market faced a slight disorientation halfway through yesterday’s NY session as the Fed mulled over whether it will still push through with its planned interest rate hike in spite of a series of disappointing economic data from the US. Luckily, the central bank decided to go ahead and push through with the said hike and even chose to shrug off the weak economic data as a mere one-off and instead kept its focus on future rate hikes as well as the overall economic health of the country. This gave off a bullish undertone to the market, and the market responded accordingly by triggering a massive dollar buying across all currencies. As a result, the EUR/USD pair sank through 1.1200 points and spent a short while at the 1.1160-1.1170 support range, and although the pair was met with some buying within this range, this buying lasted only for a brief period and the pair eventually dropped towards 1.1130 points before finally settling at just under 1.1150 points, where it continued to trade in a very weak manner, with its next short-term target located at 1.1100 points. There were some positive data coming in from the EU, while the IMF also stated that the EU economy seems to be consistently improving, but so far this has had no effect on the EUR/USD pair.

For today’s trading session, there are no major releases from the eurozone while the US economy will be releasing its building permits data. The dollar is expected to remain trading in a consistently strong manner which could put additional pressure on the EUR/USD pair.


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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 20, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:11 am

The USD/CAD pair continues to consolidate within its range lows as the loonie makes another attempt to recover its losses and possibly trigger a bounce in its value. Now that the Bank of Canada is more than eager to help the Canadian economy make a 360-degree turn, the pair’s bulls will be in for a hard time as it tries to induce any kind of price bounce. Should the pair manage to create a bounce, then this should be viewed as a selling opportunity and should not be taken as a trend adjustment.

On the other hand, oil prices are still trading within its bottom rungs and remains weak as of the moment, however the CAD seems to be unaffected by this and has still managed to look very positive and has remained trading in a very positive manner. The CAD will only be able to gain some measure of short-term strength if the oil prices will be able to recover in the short run, and if this happens, then the USD/CAD pair might be able to make a substantial attempt to go beyond the critical range of 1.3000 points. The currency pair has weakened significantly ever since it surpassed 1.3500, with this region signalling a trend shift. The fact that the currency pair is still doing very well in spite of a drop in oil prices and dollar strength just goes to show how much of a change has happened within the price action of the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the economic releases from the Canadian economy has showed consistently positive readings, with the BoC announcing its plans to help keep the country’s economy on the upside.

For today’s trading session, there are no major releases from the Canadian economy, and the USD/CAD pair is expected to range and consolidate on both directions of 1.3200 points.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 23, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:05 am

The USD/CAD pair has returned to its downtrodden price action as the Canadian economy released some very dismal data on the back of a steadily dropping oil prices. The currency pair was unable to surpass the very critical trading range of 1.3300-1.3330 points, thus stopping it from making any advancements towards 1.3500 and instead caused the currency pair to return to its downtrending price direction.

With the present state of the currency pair, it is now evident that the USD/CAD pair will be unable to make any decisive rebounds at least for the time being. The Canadian economy continues to throw some consistently good economic data, signaling that the country’s economic outlook remains on the positive. All this, including a highly positive retail sales data from the region could increase the chances of the Bank of Canada implementing an interest rate hike before the end of 2017. The central bank had previously hinted of this possibility a few weeks ago, and this further added to the downward pressure on the loonie. Oil prices have also managed to hold their ground in spite of its continuously weak outlook, with this oil prices the only thing stopping the USD/CAD pair to go full on with regards to completing its downturn. As of now, the USD/CAD pair is still continuing with its downtrend and if this further progresses, then the loonie will possibly reach 1.3100-1.3000 in the short term period.

For today’s trading session, the Canadian economy will be releasing its CPI data, and if this turns out to be positive as well, then this could enable the USD/CAD to drop further towards 1.3100 points.


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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 28, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:14 am

The EUR/USD was able to jump higher due to hawkish remarks of ECB head, Draghi coupled with the events happened in the United States that caused the greenbacks to weaken in general during Wednesday’s trading. The pair gained more than 160 pips in the past 24 hours and ultimately, the bullishness lasted in the past few weeks become apparent.

During the first part of the day, the pair had a usual day spending time under the 1.12 level consolidating. Followed by the statement of Draghi, who frequently not discuss monetary policy on his speeches, however, this happened yesterday that moved that market.

The European Central Bank is regarded to have a bearish stance but the strong data in the previous months that forced the bank to change their stand. Recently, M. Draghi mentioned his best indication regarding changes in track and stated that there is a likelihood that the central bank would start the tapering of QE very soon. This seems to be very hawkish for the European currency and the underlying strength aided the pair in pushing higher touching the 1.1250 level above.

A short interruption occurred prior the 1.13 area that acts like a wall in the past months and has the potential to stop the pair within that point and conduct another reversal. Nonetheless, there are reports about the delay in the US healthcare reform bill due to diverging ideas coming from the Republicans per se. This event caused the USD to lose its strength in general due to worries regarding the policy paralysis in the US that was triggered once again. It further leads the pair across the region 1.13 above and trading comfortably as of this writing.

Previous forecasts say that every last week of the each month will probably witness high volatility and this has been proven right.

We expect today for another statement from the head of ECB with an anticipation to talk about fiscal policy again and if he does not mention this or anything that contradicts his comments, the pair will remain to move upwards as it was far away from the 1.13 resistance.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 04, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:08 am

The British pound against the U.S. dollar has had a difficult trading session yesterday as the dollar is starting to recover in the market as the week starts. Several data are expected to come out from the U.S. as traders are anticipating these data to be supporting the greenback.
In view of this, this commences the week in a great start especially for the U.S. dollar that dollar bulls could take advantage of and could further get better until the holiday but could proceed into consolidation prior to the resurgence of the volatility tomorrow.
The cable has had trouble following the bad data from the U.K. when the Manufacturing PMI did not meet expectations. Although, the Manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. came in stronger. These added pressure to the GBP/USD pair and promote the pair to get lower at 1.30 up to 1.29 level.
Currently, the pair is hovering strongly close to the resistance region in 1.3030 which seems to be similar to yesterday’s forecast. Moreover, the pair climbed uphill at a quicker pace where a correction won’t be surprising to happen.
The market sentiment is becoming stronger that the BOE would hike rates sooner which is also supported by the central bank as it is hawkish over the past month. Governor Carney is saying that the pound has surpassed the obstacle and a hawkish decision would be beneficial for the pound.
More expectantly, the employment data from the U.S. are assumed to come out positively which could raise the option for another rate hike from the Fed soon. It is intriguing on the how next week will turn out as the pound and the dollar would fight off on which will be priced higher than the other.
For today, the Construction PMI data from the U.K is expected to be published while the U.S. in a holiday that offsets the volatility and the liquidity in the market with low trading activities. It is reasonable to expect consolidation in the market.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 7, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:49 am

The EUR/USD climb higher on the positive news for the single European currency and brought negative news for the US dollar, hence, this helped the pair to return towards the range of its highs where it previously existed.

The euro-dollar pair appeared to be very bullish as of this time while traders and euro bulls will cheer up due to the fact that a major portion of this is from the existing strength of the EUR. This not the same during the earlier times wherein the pair trailed upwards following the dollar’s weakness.

As mentioned in the earlier forecast, the bullish run will remain intact within this pair and it appeared that will take some time prior the euro recovery. This happened yesterday due to the release of ECB minutes which clearly indicates that officials talked about preserving the QE tapering. However, decided to hold back until the inflation data support this move. It further shows that the ECB is very serious in considering the tapering as this also wrought a large increase for the EUR. In case that it lacks steam to push the EURUSD higher, we could rely on the ADP employment report which presented lower than expected value of 158K versus projections of 185K.

As the ADP served as a precursor to the NFP scheduled to be released later this day, it further acts as a reminder for the dollar bulls that they are not yet far from that critical phase and that other challenges and struggle continues in the near-term. With this, the trend of sluggish US data resumed in the past couple of days. This questioned the Fed’s decision on ignoring the weak data after they implemented rate hike in the previous month. Ultimately, the focus is on the NFP along with the wages report and should be keenly monitored. Any hints of weakness in this report will only need some stimulant in order for the euro bulls to support the pair to 1.05 level.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 14, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jul 14, 2017 7:30 am

Despite the fact that EUR/USD appeared to be volatile and fluctuates continuously and when we zoom out the trends viewed on the daily scale, we can see that the euro-dollar pair is trading in a quite tight range in the past couple of days.

Apparently, the pair is bullish but a move over the 1.1450 region a few days ago, correct back towards that level and it trades on top of 1.14 mark as of this writing.

Failure to move beyond the level 1.1450, despite the weakening of the US dollar previously, should still be considered by the bulls. As they are expectant that the EURUSD will remain to trend upwards when it cleared the resistive region at 1.1430. Yet, there’s no any movement happened and the pair trades under the broken resistance as of this moment.

As the euro bulls spent more time in managing their move, it provides a greater chance that dollar bullishness may eventuate and then trimmed lower until nothing.

Janet Yellen’s testimony in 2 days did not bring out any hints of hawkishness that disappointed the dollar bulls again yesterday since they somewhat expected that she will support the dollar and give any clues regarding economic growth and the schedule of the next rate increase. The Fed Chair spoke her typical lines without providing any signals and this resulted in a weaker dollar.

Ultimately, the US CPI and retail sales and other significant data is the second most important set of data next to jobs report. Therefore, it should be monitored closely in order to know if there is some recovery in the employment statistics for these figures could also lead to a recovery. In case that this happens, we will witness a fully recovered US dollar.

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