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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 17, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed May 17, 2017 7:15 am

The sterling pound’s bulls experienced a very harrowing trading day yesterday after the GBP/USD pair was unable to make any significant progress even after all the other major currency pairs were able to take advantage of the greenback going on backfoot. The cable pair remained within a very limited trading range and was unable to even advance towards its range highs, much less surpass this particular range. Several geopolitical issues has caused the dollar to drop, however, the GBP/USD pair did not have enough fuel for it to actually gain from the dollar losses.

The US housing data fell short of initial market expectations, and this proved to be somewhat damaging for the interest rate bulls who had already priced in the possibility of a June rate hike from the Fed. However, the market was more affected by news that Trump had apparently leaked top-secret information to the Russian government straight from the Oval Office, in addition to reports that Trump has apparently been caught dipping his fingers into a certain continuing investigation. These series of events triggered a massive dollar selloff, and while other major currencies such as the EUR were able to make use of this particular development, the sterling pound barely moved from its original position. The GBP/USD pair only slightly advanced from 1.2900 points and is now placed at just under 1.2950 points and does not look like it could induce a rally anytime soon. This is an indicator of just how weak the currency pair as of the moment and it could only be a matter of time before things take a turn for the worse.

For today’s trading session, there are no expected releases coming from the UK economy although international geopolitical events could possibly dominate the market for today. However, the GBP/USD pair is not expected to exhibit that much volatility given its recent weakness, and the pair should start a rally soon in order to placate any risk of the pair’s current standing taking a turn for the worse.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 19, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri May 19, 2017 9:28 am

The USD/CAD pair continues to exhibit a very steady trading manner during the previous session and seems to be largely unaffected by the currently very high volatility levels in the market. In spite of the recent turmoil affecting the US government and a spike in oil prices, the loonie seems to be unaffected by this and remains trading on both sides of 1.3600 points in a very choppy price action with no indications of a possible change in direction.

The recent surge in oil prices has kept the USD/CAD pair buoyant, and this is why the currency pair has stayed within the reach of 1.3550 points. The pair’s consolidation is expected to continue until the next few days since oil prices have already increased in the short-term. Meanwhile, the greenback could possibly backfoot across the board since the possibility of a June Fed rate hike has dimmed somewhat. If this indeed happens, then the 1.3550 range will become a very critical region to surpass and until the USD/CAD pair goes past this range, then it can be safe to say that the pair’s uptick is most likely to remain in the short-term. Otherwise, the currency pair could possibly revert to its previous range and could resort to a bearish consolidating price action.

For today’s session, the Canadian economy will be releasing its CPI data and retail sales data, both of which are expected to induce volatility in the pair’s price action.


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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 23, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue May 23, 2017 10:40 am

The USD/CAD pair has been exhibiting a very disappointing price action ever since it was able to test its range highs at 1.3800 points during the start of this month. The currency pair has been suffering from the repercussions brought about by the greenback’s weakness and the strength of the loonie which was mostly due to an oil price surge. This oil price increase was able to cover up the actual occurrences within the Canadian economy and has provided enough leverage for the loonie to advance, and this is why the USD/CAD pair has been consistently dropping value during the last two weeks.

As of the moment, the currency pair is now within a very critical region of 1.3500 points, where it continues to look very weak. The weakness of the greenback has been the dominant market trend as of the moment, with the dollar getting adversely affected by Trump’s political woes, which in turn has affected the US economy as well as its monetary policy. The market had initially priced in a rate hike this coming June, but with the recent slew of dismal events, it looks like the market’s players might have to put off this interest rate hike at least for now. In addition, the rising oil prices has helped the loonie to retain its positive image amidst Canadian banking concerns, wherein the majority of Canadian banks have been given the thumbs-down by ratings agencies. The loonie strength has also helped to offset the concerns surrounding the HCG and the housing sector.

For today’s session, there are no major news releases coming from both the US and the Canadian economy, although some Fed officials will be making statements today with regards to the US monetary policy. All these are expected to add downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair and cause the pair to test its support levels.


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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 26, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri May 26, 2017 8:04 am

The USD/CAD pair has been projected to be highly dependent on the state of oil prices as well as the OPEC meeting held yesterday, and in fact, the loonie skyrocketed in value as the OPEC meeting concluded yesterday’s meeting on a somewhat dismal note as far as the markets were concerned.

The market had initially hoped that the OPEC members would approve an extension of the production cuts since the majority of them are expecting deeper production cuts in the future. However, what the OPEC members did was to extend the production cut deal for another 9 months, with both Iran and Libya given an approval to maintain its current status quo. This turned out to be a huge disappointment for the market in general, and this caused oil prices to drop after a large selloff occurred. This was then especially unfavorable for the Canadian dollar, particularly for the Canadian economy as its fate relies on oil prices. As of the moment, the USD/CAD pair has reverted by 80 pips as the loonie starts to drop in value. The currency pair was also propped up even more by the dollar strength and now the pair is back at its support-turned-resistance level of 1.3500 points. The market will now be monitoring how this pair closes down this week’s session since if it manages to close down at over 1.3500 points, then this is an indicator that the bulls have regained control of the pair and the USD/CAD could possibly be poised for more increases. On the other hand, if the pair closes down at under 1.3500 points, then this means that the bears are now dominating the pair and the market might have to brace themselves for more selling at least in the short-term.

The US economy will be releasing its durable goods data and its Preliminary GDP data within the day, although traders are advised to sit back and wait for the session to close down before making any significant moves.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 26, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri May 26, 2017 8:19 am

The strength of the greenback has been the dominant market trend during the previous trading session. In addition, the bulls of the GBP/USD pair are also having a hard time with regards to keeping the value of the cable pair afloat, which is seen on how the bulls had repeatedly attempted and failed to break through 1.3030 points even though the USD has clearly dropped in value. This development shows just how the bears are slowly gaining the upper hand with regards to taking control of the cable pair.

But on the bright side, the drop in the cable pair’s value was not as much of a crash as initially expected since the pair’s drop has been somewhat slow and steady. But then again the corrections of the pair is now starting to get more significant, while its reversions are becoming more and more shallow, which is an indication that the pair’s bears are indeed taking over the currency pair. The GBP/USD pair was unable to even reach the 1.3000 range as the greenback starts to regain more strength due to the market re-pricing the interest rate hike next month.

For today’s trading session, the market is expecting the release of the Preliminary GDP data and the durable goods data from the US, while the British economy is not scheduled to have any economic releases for today. The GBP/USD pair is then expected to remain under pressure for the entirety of today’s trading session.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue May 30, 2017 7:04 am

It was a market holiday on several parts of the world yesterday, and the absence of market volatility due to the said holidays was felt throughout the market during the previous session as most of the major currency pairs consolidated and traded within a very limited range yesterday. EUR/USD traders had only one thing to look forward to during the duration of yesterday’s session, which is Draghi’s speech wherein he made his usual statements on the lessening of downward pressure on the EU economy, although this had little effect on the EUR/USD pair’s current standing.

What affected the value of the currency pair was the news that Greece is now prepared to abdicate the following bailout fund if the EU will still be unable to reach middle ground as far as the conditions were concerned. This then caused the EUR/USD pair to correct towards 1.1120 points during the latter part of yesterday’s session. As of the moment, the market is still experiencing very low liquidity levels as the Chinese market remains to be on a holiday, and as such, traders are advised to take all market movements today with a grain of salt. In addition, the market will also be experiencing month-end flows before this week comes to a close, and this is why traders should take it easy in order to prepare themselves for the onslaught of economic data later this week. The Fed rate hike in June is still not fully priced in, and unless the market gets some sort of conclusion with regards to the Fed’s next move, then it will be very hard to determine the short-term price actions of the EUR/USD pair. But the recent correction of the EUR/USD pair should be taken only as a mere correction instead of a full-on trend change as corrections are deemed as normal in every currency pair.

For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of Germany’s Preliminary CPI data, as well as the PCE data from the US economy. The PCE data will be closely watched as this will indicate whether the Fed will be indeed pushing through with its rate hike or otherwise and could possibly induce a lot of volatility into the market within the day.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue May 30, 2017 8:09 am

In a sea of otherwise very inactive major currency pairs, the GBP/USD pair seems to be the only pair which has gained significant volatility during yesterday’s trading session. The cable pair shot up by over 40 pips in spite of a market holiday across several locations throughout the world such as the US, UK, and China. The lack of market activity yesterday gave the pair’s traders an opportunity to induce a bounce in the pair although it was unable to offset the 150-pip crash of the cable pair during the session last Friday. In spite of this recent reversal, the GBP/USD pair is expected to remain trading in a very weak manner as a lot of economic factors seem to be going against the sterling pound at least for the time being.

Members of the ruling political party in Scotland have recently outlined the possibility of a Scottish referendum if ever they get reinstated in the Scottish government. But then again there have been recent rumors swirling around with regards to the ongoing Brexit negotiations, specifically on how the negotiations will pan out once the snap elections in June come to a close. In addition, the results of the recent opinion polls are showing that Theresa May lacked the expected lead in the upcoming snap elections, which puts May in danger since anything less than a landslide victory for the UK PM will make this particular risk of hers in order to establish herself in the international scene a failure. The GBP/USD pair is also currently struggling to surpass 1.3030 points, and all of these factors have turned against the cable pair and has put a significant amount of downward pressure on the pair.

For today’s session, there are no expected releases from the UK economy although the US will be releasing its PCE data, which will be closely monitored by the market as this will be indicating whether the June rate hike will indeed push through or otherwise. If this data disappoints the market, then this will not bade well for the GBP/USD pair.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue May 30, 2017 9:11 am

The USD/CAD pair remained in consolidation mode as the market lacked significant volatility due to market holidays in China, US, and the UK. The loonie remains trading under the very important trading range of 1.3500 points, mostly due to a steadying in oil prices in addition to a strong greenback value.

The currency pair broke through 1.3500 points last week after a surge in oil prices. Although the oil bulls were very disappointed with regards to the results of the recently-concluded OPEC meeting, the loonie received some well-needed pressure from this drop in oil prices, thereby triggering the USD/CAD pair to revert to 1.3500 points and closed down last week at just under this critical trading level. The CAD is also currently being propped up by a series of very positive data from the Canadian economy, with this economic improvement getting some acknowledgement from the Bank of Canada in its rate statement during the past week. In fact, the BoC has already decided to put its rates on hold instead of implementing a rate cut due to this consistent improvement in the country’s economic state, which could then lead to a possible rate hike if the country’s economy continues to be positive.

For today’s session, the US economy will be releasing its PCE data which is expected to clarify the country’s inflation status in addition to shedding some light on whether the Fed will be indeed implementing a rate hike next month. If the PCE comes out as negative, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly correct further towards 1.3400 points.


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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 1, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Thu Jun 01, 2017 6:38 am

The EUR/USD pair looks poised to make another attempt at reaching its current range highs as the currency pair was able to take advantage of a correction in the greenback. This upward pressure in the currency pair is expected to last well into the first few days of June, particularly the 2 most essential trading days for this month.

The dollar experienced corrections on the back of a couple of disappointing data from the US economy. The first one was the Chicago PMI data, which failed to meet its expected economic reading and the pending home sales data, which also disappointed the entirety of the market yesterday. This triggered a large-scale dollar selloff against other major currencies and has enabled the EUR/USD pair to advance towards 1.1200 and was even able to reach 1.1250 points throughout the course of the NY session. Since the Fed had previously clarified that the implementation of the June rate hike will be wholly dependent on the results of the incoming economic readings from the US, the market has become very sensitive to readings coming from the US economy, with even minor readings inducing major volatility levels on the market especially if these comes out as very disappointing for investors. Eventually, the PMI data was revised to a much higher reading and this helped to cushion the blow of the fall of the USD, although this has left an impression on the market with regards to the adverse effects of a negative reading to the value of the US dollar. Meanwhile, the USD continues to be in peril in spite of its drop in value being temporarily stalled.

For today’s trading session, there are no major news releases coming from the EU economy while the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data and its ADP Non-Farm Employment change data during the NY session, which is a precedent to the release of the NFP report on Friday. This particular bit of news is then expected to induce major volatility levels and a move of the currency pair below 1.1200 points should be a signal for the pair’s bulls to rethink their positions.


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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 1, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:12 am

The USD/CAD pair was able to advance further towards its range highs during the previous session in spite of the greenback suffering blows against other major currency pairs due to a series of disappointing economic data from the US economy. The loonie is now trading at just above 1.3500 points which is considered to be a very essential trading region for the currency pair. However, the market has yet to see whether the USD/CAD pair will indeed manage to go even higher and reclaim its bullish price action or if it will correct and return to its previous trading range.

This surge in the value of the USD/CAD pair has been mostly attributed to a string of weak economic data from Canada. As the Canadian GDP was released during yesterday’s session, the annual and quarterly readings for 2016 disappointed the market in spite of a very positive monthly reading. This was far worse than what the market had initially anticipated and has caused the loonie to correct and the USD/CAD pair to increase further in value. Oil prices also dropped while the Canadian inventory data showed a solid draw in addition to an added increase of Libyan production data. This caused both the Canadian dollar and oil prices to drop and was more than enough for the currency pair’s bulls to help prop up the value of the USD/CAD pair past 1.3500 points where it is currently sitting as of the moment.

For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of unemployment claims data and the ADP employment report from the US economy, both of which are of utmost importance since this serves as a precursor to the incoming NFP report due tomorrow. The oil inventory data is set to be released today, and this, together with the NFP report will most likely determine the short-term price action of the USD/CAD pair.


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