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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 16, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue Jan 17, 2017 4:31 am

The USD/CAD remained to trade close on its range lows on the back of the dollar’s strength recovery. While the prices of oil appeared to have an optimistic result which assisted the CAD keep in the short term.

The pair plunge under the 1.3100 level following the extensive weakening of the dollar, however, it immediately found buying pressure which supported the pair to return on top of 1.3100.

Over the past few months, the USDCAD showed a consistent uptrend and every correction met a prompt and strong bounce which seems to be repetitive. The way towards the 1.400 medium target suggest a slow progress and the main uptrend supported the bulls to purchase every correction.

Recently, the pair have acquired more buyers and there are banks that started to advise their clients regarding the 1.40 target.

The strong Canadian data with a weak economy of the country is the reason why traders are directed to maintain a hard clean break under 1.3000 which signals that an uptrend has ended.
There are no major economic data from Canada for this day since it was a bank holiday in the United States. It is further expected for a consolidation and ranging close to the range lows today.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 16, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue Jan 17, 2017 5:06 am

The GBP/USD closed the week with a sluggish stance and struggled to maintain its gains. These events put on some fears against the pound bulls because this will weigh over the Cable upon the return of dollar’s strength.

The pair stayed below the 1.2200 on Friday until the weekend took place which triggered indications for a hard Brexit. This caused for the pair to create a large gap and traded shortly under 1.2000.

The strong economic data of the UK shown for the previous months did not influenced the sterling’s value at all. However, it is deemed that the British currency is able to withstand its current situation and will accumulate gains afterwards. Looking forward, the bulls still needs to endure the worst impact as the bears tend to insurge. The hard Brexit cause risk and confusion for the investors which made them think twice prior pound purchase.

In the last two weeks, there are news about the UK's possibility to employ hard Brexit, whereas, PM May’s speech is highly anticipated within this week. This event brought the Britain’s economy a tough time but we believe the country will become much stronger eventually.

For today, we expect no new UK economic release and losses is further expected with a fundamental near-term target of 1.17.

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EUR/NZD Technical Analysis: January 17, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue Jan 17, 2017 10:29 am

A break higher than the minor resistance of 1.5007 is seen from 1.5235 level. This is followed by a next break at 1.5193 completes the second wave towards the 1.5837 third wave level. Beyond the third level indicates a long-term position while trying to confirm the latest correction completes the zig-zag correction. On the other hand, the support levels could go towards the 1.4778 level before the next unexpected surge comes in.

Currently the Resistance level of the pair comes in at 1.5007 then 1.5050 towards 1.5193 levels while the Support level is seen at 1.4841 then 1.4810 towards the 1.4778 levels. The Pivotal turn is at 1.4895 level with buying opportunity when the price breaks more than the 121.687 level.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 17, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Jan 18, 2017 5:38 am

The EUR/USD pair traded weakly during the previous trading session with the weak euro having more effect on the currency pair than the recent dollar weakness. The international economy is now very concerned with UK’s hard Brexit process, since this could spell disaster not only for UK but also for countries within the eurozone. Although the hard Brexit could have less negative effects for the UK, this could instead affect EU countries since most of them are doing business with UK, and the removal of a free trade zone with UK and the rest of the EU could become very disastrous for a lot of EU countries.

This was one of the reasons why the EUR/USD pair corrected largely during yesterday’s session and plummeted down to 1.0600 points yesterday and even went lower for some time. The currency pair could have experienced much larger corrections if not for the US bank holiday yesterday.

For today’s trading session, there are no important economic data coming from the eurozone but Theresa May will be speaking during the New York session with regards to the guidelines of the expected hard Brexit. May’s speech could have a negative effect on the value of the euro and traders are expected to take extra caution when it comes to trading with this particular currency pair.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 18, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:49 am

The GBP/USD pair exhibited heightened volatility during the previous trading session as the dollar lost strength and the sterling pound regained much of its footing in the market. Theresa May’s speech yesterday helped in clearing up some of the murkier parts of the Brexit process, and this has helped in placating various investors and has minimized concerns surrounding the Brexit process, thereby increasing the value of the sterling pound. This has then prompted investors to pull out their funds from the USD, thereby causing the dollar to drop in value.

Theresa May has highlighted in her speech yesterday that the UK will indeed be going for a hard Brexit and will be eliminating any kind of access from the eurozone. However, the PM has reiterated that the UK government will be negotiating with eurozone leaders in order to have a different kind of trade relations with the European bloc. Since this has eliminated confusions surrounding Brexit matters, thereby increasing the pair’s volatility levels. The GBP/USD pair initially dipped to 1.2015 points prior to Theresa May’s speech but quickly climbed up to a daily high of 1.2414 points.

However, there are still a handful of concerns surrounding the Brexit process, and the expected invocation of Article 50 is also seen as a possibly risk for the stance of the currency pair as well as the UK economy. As such, these are expected to continuously pressure the GBP in the next few days.

For today’s session, UK will be releasing its claimant count change data as well as its average earnings data, while US will be releasing its CPI data later today. It remains to be seen whether these data sets would be continuing the string of good economic data during the past few days. If the UK data comes out as positive, then this push the pair upwards to 1.2500 points, although this might not be enough to actually push the currency pair beyond this particular barrier.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 18, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Jan 18, 2017 9:38 am

The Prime Minister of UK, Theresa May laid out few ground rules yesterday regarding the possible flow of the Brexit process. Global risks were also expected to lessen and in whatever time it might occur, it will likely weigh on the dollar.

The greenbacks were seen to be on its weaker stance prior this event that will hit the currency much harder. This will caused for the USD/CAD to test 1.3000 over and over, there is also a sudden solid bounce upwards.

The USD continued to suffer from the drawbacks due to the risky environment from Trump’s administration which continue to confuse traders and investors because of its vague plans.

Moreover, the expected thrice rate increase of the Fed will likely be supported by the dollar with the medium and long term, however the near-term risk that surround the new US government causes the dollar to soften.

Another test of lows is assumed to occur in case the Canadian data will present an optimistic result. Since the economic data from the region is relatively strong and identify whether this upbeat is from the BOC statement about rate policy or from the media conference of the BOC Governor.

Furthermore, the BOC is scheduled to hold its rate for today, in case the statement came in hawkish, the 1.3000 level are needed to test again.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 18, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:47 am

The EUR received a much-needed boost from yesterday’s trading events, wherein the USD plummeted and weakened while the sterling pound regained its previous losses across the board. This has then caused the EUR/USD pair to break through the 1.0600 barrier after quite a time and even went up as high as 1.0700 points, where it traded momentarily before settling just below 1.0700 points.

In spite of the fact that Theresa May has indeed announced that the UK is headed for a hard Brexit process, the concerns surrounding this particular occurrence have somewhat diminished, prompting investors to pull out from the USD and onto high-risk areas such as the stock market. The US dollar has since then weakened, and the clarity of the Brexit process has helped in pushing the euro higher. Although the hard Brexit would most probably have an adverse effect on eurozone trades, the renewed clarity of the process has helped placate investors and has created upward support for the EUR/USD pair. The currency pair is now seen to possibly reach the 1.0850 trading region.

There are no major economic readings set to be released today from the eurozone, but the US will be releasing its Core CPI and CPI data during the New York session, and these will be closely monitored by investors since a string of good economic data could increase the chances of a Fed rate hike in the near future.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 19, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:26 am

The USD/CAD pair was previously situated in a very critical support region and has reverted in the region just below 1.3000 points. The Bank of Canada has already released its statement regarding the central bank’s rates, and the bank also held a press conference later in the day. The pair’s strong bounce was seen as the US dollar and the Canadian dollar went in highly opposite directions during the previous trading session.

The USD had already regained its lost strength and has exhibited positive activity across the board after Yellen announced that the Fed could possibly go for more rate hikes in the future if the economic data from the US continues to be positive. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada announced that it will be making no changes on its current interest rates. However, the succeeding press conference from BoC’s Poloz has made it clear to investors that the Canadian economy has not shown any progress and has instead stayed in the same place. Moreover, Poloze expressed his sentiments regarding a possible trade war under the Trump administration, and this has adversely affected the CAD and has caused the USD/CAD pair to revert back from the 1.3000 trading range and was able to shot up through 1.3100 and even through 1.3200 where it currently sits above as of present time.

Market players are expecting that the USD/CAD pair might be in for a strong uptrend and could possibly reach 1.4000 points. For today’s trading session, Canada will be releasing its Manufacturing Sales data, while US will be releasing its oil inventory data as well as the Unemployment claims data. These are expected to induce volatility in the pair. However, it is highly likely that the USD/CAD pair will be in for an uptrend in the long run.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 23, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:14 am

The EUR/USD increased for the past few days following the sluggish stance of the greenbacks. The single European dollar benefited from the position of the greens as it climbs to 1.0700 and further extended its gains. The USD weakened with no definite reason as others deemed for the general correction while some claimed it’s all because of the skepticism for Trump’s administration. However, the American currency is clearly at a disadvantage point against the euro.

The EUR is relatively buoyant for the previous week, much more when its U.S peer manifested some strength. The euro continued to bounce back from a limited correction and eventually broke the 1.0700 level, en route 1.0840 region.

There are some issues that the weakness are caused by the speech of Trump coupled with the curtailment for the rest of Obamacare. Moreover, there exist a general risk about the US President’s team and their plans and these uncertainties weighed on the USD.

As the last week of January enters, the economic news is lessened while the upcoming is a beginning for the USD towards an unidentified state which brings higher volatility.

The US and Euroregion do not have major reports to be released for today, what we expect is the continuous fall of the greens.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 24, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:01 am

Today’s trading session is expected to be very critical for the GBP/USD pair since UK is now awaiting for the release of the country’s SC ruling with regards to its eurozone membership, as well as the Brexit process, which is set to be released during today’s session. The GBP/USD pair has increased in value over the past 24 hours as part of market anticipation, with the currency pair closing yesterday’s session at over 1.2500 points after months of being unable to go over 1.2500 due to repeated pummeling from bears of the said currency. However, since yesterday was a generally good day for the sterling pound, the market is expecting that this currency pair would be able to reach 1.2700 or even 1.2800 in the short-term outlook for the GBP/USD pair.

The UK Supreme Court will be releasing its decision on whether the Article 50 will have to undergo scrutiny from the Parliament or otherwise, since the Article 50 is an essential factor on the carrying out of the Brexit process. The market is generally anticipating that the SC will be approving the Article 50 invocation, and if this does happen, then this will ensure that the whole of the Brexit process will be well-thought of, and this will ensure that equal distribution of ideas instead of the power becoming limited to select people in the government. This is expected to drive up the value of the GBP, but then there are also some risks that the Parliament approval might cause delays in the Brexit process since all views and ideas must be taken into consideration as part of the process.

There are no major news releases from the UK except for the SC ruling for the Brexit process, as well as from the US.

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