Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Dive deeper into the fundamentals of the market. If you come across any major Forex related news item or wish to share your opinions and ideas related to the local or global economy, this forum is the place for you. Share the news and views about Fundamental Analysis and economic events here.
Image

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:33 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

FOMC minutes give some life back to dollar bulls



Image


The latest FOMC minutes have given the bulls something to be happy about, as the FED once again looked to keep the pace of rate hikes in the near future. There were some key takeaways from the meeting and the most pressing was that FED officials expect inflation to rise to 2% in the medium term as the Tax bill has a impact on the US economy. Expectations were also strong that pressure on the labour market as unemployment further drops would also help boost inflation expectations, and that potentially forecasting of inflation may also have been low historically. So with the FED looking forward in 2018 and Trumps man Powell about to come to the table we could potentially see some strong bullish moves from the FED with a strong US economy in front of them.

Image

For the USD bulls it was positive across the board with large rises against all the major pairs, but mainly the European ones. For me one of the more interesting ones continues to be the USDCAD which lifted slightly, but is still lacking the momentum required to break out of the current bearish trend it finds itself in. So far traders will be watching to see if there is a bounce at support at 1.2427 to see if the bulls can come back into the market, otherwise they could be waiting until 1.2108 to see any sign of a solid bounce. If we see a push back higher 1.2628 and 1.2759 are likely to be the first key levels of resistance. However, the 200 day moving average is creeping down and likely to also act as dynamic resistance in the current market climate.

For me the main thing that keeps on going in the bullish American climate is the equity markets at present, and look no further than the S&P 500. It's getting hard to believe that there is an end, but at some point the bears will look to swipe. For now though, the Trump effect and the recent Tax reform coupled with a FED with positive forecasts is driving American companies higher than ever before and in the process lifting the S&P 500 higher than ever before. Most weeks we are seeing a new record high at present, but that being said uncertainty could be the instability that shakes the bulls off the top for a bit.

Image

On the charts, and as previously stated, the focus would ideally be on psychological levels - as the market continues to rise it will look for these points. I would anticipate that markets will continue to look for key levels at 2725 and 2750 if the bulls look to push higher. Any swings lower are likely to get held up at 2700 as it acts as support in the current market. However, a push through would be treated with concern as generally speaking the 2600 and 2500 level were previously very good at holding back the bears.



More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 267
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:29 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

A critical week for the US Dollar after a fragile start



Image



After having the worst annual performance since 2003, the dollar continued to struggle in the first trading week of 2018. The dollar index fell to a three-and-a-half-month low to trade below 92, leaving many traders wondering whether this year will be another devastating one for the greenback. When looking at the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, speculators are not showing interest in buying the U.S. dollar yet, and the latest bunch of data did nothing to support the dollar.

Friday's jobs report did not motivate the dollar bulls to return, with non-farm payrolls rising 148,000 in December versus expectations of 190,000. Although I think the numbers weren’t bad and the labor market remains healthy with unemployment at 4.1%, wages are not yet showing signs of accelerating, and this remains the key missing ingredient of the U.S. economy’s recovery.

The latest minutes of the Fed’s meeting also showed that policymakers aren’t sure whether inflation will return to the central bank’s target which is why markets believe that only two rate hikes will occur in 2018, as opposed to the three in the Fed’s dot plot. This week many Fed speakers are due to speak including the two dissenters against a rate hike in December, Neel Kaskhari and Charles Evans. Whether they have changed their mind, or still believe rates shouldn’t be hiked, remains to be seen but we’ll also tune into other Fed speakers for fresh insights.

If the Fed speakers don’t deliver news, tier one economic releases may provide the needed clues. Consumer prices and retail sales are both due for release on Friday. Given that energy prices spiked in December consumer prices are expected to increase 0.2%. However, I think traders will be more interested in the core CPI figure, which strips out volatile items like food and energy. Any upside surprise in the inflation numbers will likely bring back the dollar bulls.

Given that the major U.S. economic releases are four days away, many traders will focus on whether any technical breakouts will occur. EURUSD failed to break above 1.2092 (2017 high) last week, but a successful breakout will likely lead to further buying of the single currency towards 1.22. Similarly, Sterling is only 100 pips short of 1.3656 (2017 High). So traders should keep a close eye on these levels.



More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 267
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:40 am

FXTM Forex Market Update | 09/01/2018

New Video from #FXTM#MarketUpdate with Research Analyst ForexTime, Lukman Otunuga

Global equity bulls were in the vicinity during Tuesday’s trading session as world stocks remained at elevated levels. In the currency arena, the Dollar appreciated amid optimism over higher US interest rates. With the economic calendar relatively light today, price action may dictate where currency and commodities trade.

- The #EURUSD is pressured below 1.20 on the daily charts
- #GBPUSD bears are eying 1.3520
- #Gold remains bullish above $1300


Watch The Video @ https://youtu.be/Hrm0PybPt74


For more Market Analysis read the latest @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 267
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:50 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

US equities hit another record high



Image


The US markets have continued their hectic pace this year as the S&P 500 reached new highs on the back of economic figures. These figures showed that while initial jobless claims lifted to 261K (245K exp), the continuing claims figured dropped to 1.87M (1.92M exp) which shows that Americans are certainly getting back into the work force. Tomorrow though will be a big day for the US economy as retail sales data is due out. This a big deal when you consider the fact that the US economy is very much a consumer based economy and big swings here can have large impacts for the global economy. In addition to this, we are expecting to see some CPI data which will also weight on the FED in regards to rate hikes in the coming year. It's quite exciting to have such a serious amount of data at the same time, but I would expect large swings as a result of the volatility.

Image


For the S&P 500 traders it is still tracking to make 2800 by the end of next week at its current progress, which seems unreal, but that is the bull market we seem to be in. At present the S&P 500 is actually hitting a new high every 48 hours as well. For me though the S&P 500 is still a threat to some bulls as the market is looking to take a swipe and have a correction at some point in the current market climate, it just has not found the opportunity. Resistance levels can still be found at the psychological levels of 2775 and of course 2800, with 2800 likely to be a tough level to crack through if 2700 is anything to go by. If we see the bears in the market then I would anticipate support at 2750 and of course 2725, but at the same time we've seen no real bearish action since November.

I touched yesterday on the oil markets and yesterdays news on another strong drawdown is likely to be a positive signal for the oil bulls. OPEC members will continue to see the benefits of holding out on production cuts and are likely to continue them. I feel that for some time now we could see oil to continue to rally until it touches the 100 dollar a barrel mark, where the market starts to kick in and it seems unreal.


Image


For Oil traders the levels still remain the same with 65.94 and 69.49 as the major resistance levels in the current market, based off previous strong levels. There is also the question of support in this market and it can be found at 62.12 and 59.08, but there is a trend line in the market that people should be aware of as lately it has been respected by traders on both sides of the coin. The question is how much longer is it here to stay.



More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 267
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:07 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

USD surges on positive risk sentiment



Image


The USD surged back into focus today as markets were more upbeat about the USD and the prospects for the future. This came on the back of a crypto currency pullback that sent some investors panicking, but for the majority of traders the USD was the big winner today when it came to the bulls. The beige book was also released today, and while nothing major was really said it did note that US growth continues to look steady, and the general outlook for 2018 is increasingly positive for the majority of firms. Adding further to this was of course the US Industrial Production m/m figures which came in at 0.9% (0.45% exp), so more than double what analysts had predicted. It was also a nice turn of events given that the previous month had a reading of -0.12% which put some pressure on the USD.

Image

The standout pair today was of course the USDJPY which shot back up the charts before hitting resistance at 111.113, but in the last hour has managed to break through and is looking all the more bullish. Traders will now be focused on the 200 day moving average which does tend to slow down bullish and bearish pressure, with the prospect of getting to resistance at 111.944 if it does push through the MA. There is also the prospect of a trend line forming as can be seen on the charts so markets will be looking to see if there is much weight in that as well. If the USD sell off does indeed continue though then support levels can be found at 110.202 and 109.385 on the charts, with expectations that it would be hard to reach 109 unless the bears are really taking things apart.

The upcoming news on Australia is also worth watching as well, given that employment figures are due out shortly. Many analysts are expecting the unemployment rate to remain the same, but if we do see a drop it could put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to be more hawkish. One thing that is interesting is also the climb in the AUDUSD, which will most likely get some comments from the RBA regarding the price levels which are well above expectations when it comes to a trade weighted index. So there could be some jaw boning come the next meeting. Nevertheless, for now the focus is certainly on the AUDUSD and the employment figures due out shortly.

Image

A stronger than expected reading could see the AUDUSD shoot up to 0.8123 as risk sentiment has been positive for the AUD so far. Further extensions higher than that are likely to find the next level at 0.8234. Support levels can also be found at 0.7926 and 0.7864 as well, but the 80 cent mark will be a tough ask to beat unless we do see that positive employment data.


More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 267
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:10 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Australian dollar looks weaker on commodity falls


Image


The Australian dollar has been doing okay against the USD in recent times on the back of the commodity boom that has been promising. However, there have been some minor hiccups so far with iron ore prices dropping 4.4% overnight on the Asian exchanges. This in theory could present some minor problems for the Australian dollar as exporting of minerals and metals plays a significant impact on the economy. What is most interesting though is the relation to the NZD, with the AUDNZD being a key focus for traders at present. The NZ economy continues to remain robust and it's commodity based exports have seen some value in recent times with the global dairy auctions as of late. Add in the fact that the recent services PMI was also positive and you have a strong combination for the NZ economy and of course the NZD. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also undergoing some reforms but so far these have not frightened of the market.

Image

So for the AUDNZD it's a case of the bigger neighbour struggling against the smaller one on the currency chart. So far we've got a strong trend line pushing the bears down the chart and stopping and bullish activity taking hold, add into the mix a very strong support level and it's likely we will see some volatility look to break out of the flag pattern here. Resistance can be found at 1.0933 and 1.0982 on the charts, but I would be mainly focused on the trend line which will likely stop any bulls becoming too aggressive. Support levels are looking interesting, with 1.0855 the level to beat for the market as this is a strong level, anything through this could touch on 1.0809. Going below any of these levels could be a hard mask for the market though at present as the AUD is a bigger economy, so it could dig itself out of a hole compared to its neighbour. It's also worth remembering that the AUDNZD is at a low when you look over a very long time frame.

Once again it's been another great day for US equity markets as they climbed the charts hitting record highs again. So far the S&P 500 is not looking like it will stop and the NASDAQ continues also to be a great runner as well. For the bulls it seems that the Trump effect is shining on further more in these markets.

Image

Looking at the S&P 500 and it has climbed up to resistance at 2850 before taking a breath. Expect markets to look to tackle the level again tomorrow if there are no curve balls. Any extension above 2850 is likely to find some further resistance at 2875. Markets will also be looking at possible support levels as well, and they can be found at 2825 and 2809 in the current market climate.



More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 267
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:25 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

USD bears in control



Image


The USD took another beating today which saw nearly all major pairs and commodities climb sharply as a result. This is not surprising given the recent data which saw US existing home sales m/m fall to 5.57M (5.7M exp) from the previous high of 5.78M, showing that there may be some slowdown in the housing market. US PMI for services was also lagging expectations coming in at 53.3, still showing expansion but at the same time not coming in where analysts had expected. There could be some good news on the horizon though with Trump expected to talk up his infrastructure plan at the state of the union and lay the foundation for further spending in order to bolster the economy. However, there is a danger that it could cause it to overheat as he looks to be bold and put his front foot forward. The real story though is that right now the USD continues to come under fire, and for the market this is causing large volatility.

Image

One of the big movers today for me was gold which sky rocketed up the charts and pushed past the previous 2017 high. It's always ominous when gold starts becoming more and more bullish but at present this is being caused by the weaker USD and resistance at 1349 was absolutely crushed today as gold whooshed past. The next levels of resistance can be found at 1366 and 1375, with 1375 likely to be a key target level for traders. Anything above this would suddenly get the market a little worried I feel, as gold is always the hedge for recessions and inflation. Support levels in the event the bears catch can be found are at 1349 and 1336, with further potential to dip lower to 1314 if the bears do manage to take hold. All in all though, if the USD weakness continues gold could be swinging higher in no time through no fault of its own.

The New Zealand dollar has got a large shock today on the back of a weaker than expected inflation report. NZ CPI figures for Q4 came in sharply down at 0.1%, expectations were for 0.4%. Pushing the Yearly figure to 1.6%, a large shock for the previously booming economy. This will certainly put pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to pause when it comes to thinking about pushing rates higher in the economy - despite the high level of employed and wage growth at present.

Image

The NZDUSD on the charts quickly pushed back from resistance at 0.7431 as the news filtered through for the CPI figures. Support levels can be found at 0.7324 and 0.7255 at present, with the market also likely to treat the 20 day moving average as support as well. If the USD does gain momentum then we could see some very serious bearish pressure, at the same time if it does remain weak then potentially the NZD could stay elevated despite the recent economic news, so the market focus will be on USD data after this with a bearish bias.



More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 267
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:07 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

US dollar claws back some ground


Image

It's been a mixed day for the USD, but it has seen some respite from the relentless selling as of late. With Trump in Davos it has meant more positive than controversial from him, as he puts the gloss on with world leaders. However, economic data continued to be mixed and not necessarily positive, as US new home sales m/m dropped to 625K (675K exp) , this is a -9.3% drop on the previous month. So not positive at all. The big ray of light though, was that the US job market continues to thrive and tick over, with US jobless claims coming in at 233k (235K exp), showing that the labour market is still the major story when it comes to positivity. The consumer market though will be a key focus for the incoming chair Powell as any movements here are likely to have big impacts, but also could point to future inflation rates and the chance to lift rates higher, as 2018 is set to be the year of hikes I feel for the FED.

Image

For me the USDCAD is still in the focus when it comes to bearish movements at present, the reason being that oil prices have risen higher and the USD continues to fall. All the while the Canadian economy is not doing so bad either on the back of stronger commodity prices. As a result the bears have been chipping away forcing it lower, and support at 1.2256 is likely to be in the cross hairs for traders drifting lower, followed by 1.2108. If the bulls do come back into the market then resistance levels at 1.2423 and 1.2585 are likely to come under some pressure. However, the recent market conditions have not warranted any serious bullish pullbacks as of late.

Meanwhile it could be more trouble in the United Kingdom, as news has come out that there might be further political revolting in Theresa Mays Tory party. This is not likely to topple the prime minister, but it does show the growing discontent within the party relating to current Brexit negotiations. The flow on effect for the pound of such events has been negative, with it taking some heat today and losing ground against the USD. It's likely that tomorrow will bring further news, but if none then the market is likely to focus on US GDP figures when it comes to moving the GBPUSD.

Image

The GBPUSD though is currently caught on support at 1.4117 with the market looking to find some breathing space before continuing. I would expect the bulls to either take another big run, or the bears to take a firm hold and drive it back down from the recent volatility. Resistance can be found at 1.4240 and this will be the key level at present. Support levels can be found at 1.3996 and 1.3856 is the GBPUSD continues to find itself under bearish pressure.



More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 267
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:36 am

FXTM Forex Market Update | 31/01/2018

New Video from FXTM Market Update with Research Analyst ForexTime, Lukman Otunuga


Image

Global stocks were under pressure on Tuesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The Dollar struggled to hold ground against a basket of major currencies while Sterling was bruised by Brexit jitters. In the commodity arena, Gold benefitted from a vulnerable Dollar. The main event risk today will be BoE Mark Carney’s testimony and CB Consumer confidence for the United States.

- The #EURUSD remains bullish on the daily charts
- #GBPUSD is currently towards 1.4175
- #Gold bulls are eying $1360


Watch The Video @ https://youtu.be/Ab_PJqjlVj8

For more Market Analysis read the latest @ http://fxtm.co/marketupdate-yt
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 267
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:49 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Markets set to focus on non-farm payroll



Image


The market is currently taking a breather after the US data today as it's almost time for non-farm payroll. Markets previously have been surprised by the recent swings in the labour market, especially with wage growth not matching the pace, but analysts and economists are now expecting wage growth to pick up, and this in turn could lead to a more aggressive hawkish Fed if that is the case. The Fed has always commented on the lack of wage growth being a key factor in holding it back, but if we were to see that growth then certainly there would be a case for further future hikes at a more aggressive pace. Analysts are expecting 180k, the reality could be much lower, but whatever the case there will be some large swings.

The USDCAD has been a key one for me to watch as of late with all the USD weakness we've seen. Commodities have risen in value as a result, and none more so than oil which has lifted on the back of it. At the same time the NAFTA treaty negotiations are looking positive thus far, and the Canadian economy is positive all round about expectations for further growth. The Bank of Canada has been a little bit more neutral, but that's more to take pause and look at its southern neighbour the US more than anything else.

Image

So far the USDCAD has slipped lower to support at 1.2256 and is looking to extend even lower to 1.2108. While a bit of a slow mover it has been trending fairly reasonably so markets have taken notice and played on that accordingly. If the USD did see some strength from the bulls then resistance at 1.2423 and 1.2585 would be key targets for the market to move to. I still believe that if there were any bulls in this market that the 200 day moving average would be the real test, as the market has been quick to bounce of it and give up and bullish sentiment in the previous months.

The S&P 500 has shown another day of losses on the charts which is quite rare, so much so that people have taken a fair degree of notice. In part this has been driven by the rise in treasury yields which is starting to look like it could compete in the future with the current rates of return from equity markets. Expectations still continue to mount that the market may be slightly overbought and this may be a correction.

Image

For me the S&P 500 is a great technical mover and this can be seen from the levels it plays off. One of the most important things though at present is the 20 day moving average which has been a sign of bullish action lately. Support can be found at 2825, 2806 and 2775, but I would mainly focus on the moving average. Resistance can be found at 2850 and 2875 in the current market climate.



More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 267
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

PreviousNext

Return to Dive Deeper - Forex News and Fundamental Analysis

 

Who is online on Forum

Registered users: Alexa [Bot], Andrea ForexMart, Baidu [Spider], Bing [Bot], FXTM Official, Google [Bot], Majestic-12 [Bot], MariaKriszelle

cron