Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Dive deeper into the fundamentals of the market. If you come across any major Forex related news item or wish to share your opinions and ideas related to the local or global economy, this forum is the place for you. Share the news and views about Fundamental Analysis and economic events here.
Image

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:51 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Oil set to turn on data


Image


Crude oil has been doing the rounds on media as it sits at a key turning point according to various analysts, and it's easy to see why given that market trending seems to have slowed down. Many in the market now believe that we are going to see the bulls make some sort of resurgence and they point at the current drawdown's from private and public data as the catalyst for further surges in the future. Tonight's drawdown of -3.5M barrels was to be expected by most, however the surge in gasoline is still a little worrying at this stage and it will be interesting to see how markets treat that tomorrow with the Department of Energy (DOE) figures. I also believe that in the long run oil prices are likely to rebound given OPEC's recent efforts, but it will come about when the US shale industry actually slows down, and does not keep boosting production further. Many believed that shale would die off with low prices; nevertheless they become more efficient, meaner and aggressive than ever before and have survived thus far as a result.

Image

Crude on the charts has seriously slowed down and the DOE data due out tomorrow will give it some serious movement as usual. Today's market is responding to a weak US dollar, and if we do see a strong US dollar well you can expect that to impact oil as well with further tests on support at 46.50 and 45.47. When the bulls do come back into the market and they will, I expect to see large tests on resistance at 48.82 and of course the level to beat which is 50.21, but encompasses that psychological 50 dollars a barrel zone. With a large push on here markets could quickly rally behind the bulls in the short term, especially if the US continues to post drawdown's with its crude oil inventory.

The Canadian dollar has been a strong against the USD in Q2 and is looking to further extend that going into Q3 this year. This has been underpinned by USD weakness, but also by a resurgence in the Canadian economy as of late with retail sales lifting to 0.7% m/m (0.1% exp) - a positive sign for an economy so underpinned by its resources and the fluctuations in the markets. While the Trump effect wearing off will have a positive effect and oil prices starting to look a little more bullish, it could be a good chance for the CAD to claw back further ground against the USD.

Image

Chart wise the USDCAD has been in a bearish trend for some time, and the trend is always your friend. After a brief pull-back led in part by USD shorts being oversold, the CAD looks poised to make some strong moves again and is currently held up at support at 1.2553, with the potential to extend further to 1.2429. Given the recent movements we could see a bounce higher to resistance, but the potential for a double top certainly exists at 1.2757 in the current market environment.


More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

Image
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 227
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:25 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Risk aversion reigns supreme in markets


Image


Markets continue to be risk off today, as commodity currencies took a beating - no more so than the NZD. Recently markets had been piling into fixed interest rate currencies as economic optimism boomed, however that has recently turned as Trumps allure has worn off, and the markets remain more cautious than ever. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has not helped as they attempted to jawbone the NZDUSD last week as well; this is not really much of a surprise though anymore as the governor tends to every chance he gets. However, it's not all doom and gloom for the pair with trading balance data due out shortly and markets expecting to see -200M (NZD) as a reading, which will certainly be negative compared to the previous surplus. A fall here would be bearish signal, however trade balance data has shown in recent times to be quite resilient and could easily surprise the markets here as well. Exports will also be a key focus for traders, as a jump here would also boost the case for a stronger NZD.

Image

So far the NZDUSD has had a very rough day with a sharp fall on today's attack on anything risky. At present it's held up on support at 0.7219 ahead of today's trade balance data reading. If we see a negative result, I would expect it to drop down to 0.7157 over the course of the evening. If we do see a positive result them a jump higher to 0.7323 would not be far off and even the possibility of further extensions to resistance at 0.7400. A push past the 74 cent mark may be a bit of a struggle though with the current conditions and the Jackson Hole meeting giving the potential to cause surprises in the markets.

Crude oil I touched on yesterday and for good cause as Department of Energy data came through and showed another drawdown of -3.33M barrels, just under expectations of -3.48M. However, it also showed a drawdown in gasoline reserves of -1.22M barrels as well, so the market has taken this as a positive. It's likely that analysts will take this as a positive sign and that OPEC which has imposed production cuts efforts are likely to be working. I am inclined to agree, but at the same time US production is increasing, and if it does taper off then we could see markets naturally relax a little more and the bulls take control.

Image

For crude bulls resistance at 48.82 is the target to look to break with further extension at 50.21 likely to be the strong point and key area to break into going forward. If we do see USD strengthening however this could slow things down and even force oil down lower. In that event support levels at 46.50 and 45.47 are likely to be the key targets here and would most likely be the line in the sand for bulls with the recent trends.


More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

Image
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 227
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:31 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Gold surges on U.S. hurricane woes[/b]


Image

It's been a quiet day today globally, with little in the way of movements on the currency markets and in equities. However, gold has jumped into action and broken through the 1300 barrier for the first time since November. This is quite unusual given it's a bank holiday in the UK and that the market has been quiet, but it could be a case of traders hedging their bets on further issues with the hurricane, which is causing so much damage to Texas at present. What is abundantly clear, is that there has been a double top in the gold market and for some time and it has been itching to get higher on the charts; and after breaking through it looks like the upside may actually win here. The only way I can really see it being pulled back down is by either a stronger USD in the market, or the next FOMC being hawkish on the possibility of a rate rise.

Image

Either way gold is looking remarkably bullish on the charts and was shortly stopped by resistance at 1313. Tomorrow with London and NY open will be the real test to see if gold can sustain above the 1300 mark, but I am certainly a believer in it with all the uncertainty. For bullish traders looking for new targets then 1338 is likely to be the next big line in the sand to target, but it may take some time or worsening economic information to push it that high. If the bears do take back some control and look to push it lower and I would be focused on the 20 day moving average. Thus far it has acted as dynamic support on a number of occasions and there is every reason for this to continue in the long run given traders bullish temperament in the market.

Oil has also been one to watch today with the hurricane causing issues in Huston, well known as an important oil region where a large amount of oil is refined the flooding has caused oil prices to drop. As a result traders are now expecting to see a rise in oil surpluses in the upcoming Department of Energy (DOE) inventory data over the next few weeks, and a likely possibility of a drawdown in gasoline supplies.

Image

On the charts oil has certainly been pushed lower and is showing continuing signs of a bearish trend despite the recent drawdown's from the DOE. Thus far the push through the bearish level at 46.50 has failed and pulled back slightly, however if the current trend is anything to go by we could indeed see another movement lower and the possibility of a further extension to 45.47.

More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

Image
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 227
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:09 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

US markets surge on GDP figures



Image



US markets clawed back ground today as the hurricane started to let up in Texas and move across to Louisiana giving some reprieve for the embattled state. This was further boosted by GDP figures out today, which showed the annual rate q/q jumping to 3.0% (2.7% exp) - a strong result in for the US economy despite the recent turmoil. There will be question marks now about the economy and if it can growth further though with the Trump effect wearing off, but this lends strong weight to a potential December rate hike from the FED. There will now also be strong bets on a positive initial jobless claims report tomorrow, however the month to come may see it boosted by the damage caused by the hurricane.

For the market, turning heads today, the EURUSD was like no other, after recently hitting a high not seen since 2015 it has done an about turn after some stiff resistance. This is not to say the EUR is losing ground, it certainly has been making up plenty against the ever weaker GBP. For me though the EUR is likely to continue to be a strong currency in the foreseeable future as data continues to be positive and some of the weaker countries are now starting to show strong signs of growth with the accommodative monetary policy laid out by the European Central Bank.

Image

The EURUSD hit stiff resistance at 1.2060 and the market is looking to jump higher on the charts in the near future as it travels up the bullish channel. Today's announcement has certainly given the bears a good swipe, and allowed traders to unwind positions. It's likely we could see further trending down and the 20 day moving average will be interesting to watch to see if the bears have really taken hold, a push through would confirm some bearish sentiment with a target at support at 1.1800. Further support can be found at 1.1798 and 1.1621 with the likelihood that these levels will be key to stopping further falls. The reality is that the USD could strengthen and push things lower, but with Germany recently recording a record trade surplus it seems that any weakness in the Euro may be a temporary thing.

Image

Back on US soil and with the storm slowly subduing it's clear that the S&P500 is back in business when it comes to volatility with some strong movements over the last two days as traders once again defended bearish swipes on the 100 day moving average. This bullish sentiment around the moving average lends weight to the idea that we could see a resurgence and eager traders will be wanting to see if they can take another crack at the 2484 level which has acted as strong resistance recently. I would be surprised to see a push through however unless US economic data does improve a bit more, which could take some time after the impact in one the US's most productive states.


More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

Image
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 227
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:24 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

US woes cause dollar bears to strike


Image


It's been a perfect storm for the USD bears today as the USD plummeted against major pairs and commodities. For some time the USD has been quite weak and major pairs have capitalised on it when possible, however there has been a major weather event recently with Hurricane Harvey causing major flooding and causing a large amount of damage, and also another storm likely to hit and impact Florida. Couple to this the huge backlog of political work that needs to be done by the end of the month and you can see why markets are not happy with the current US situation. The major bearish sign though was the durable goods orders m/m which fell to -6.8% (-2.9% exp) which gave the dollar bears another chance to dump the USD.

Image

No where was this felt more than the commodity currencies which surged higher on the back of the USD weakness. After recent bearish behaviour after the last few months the NZDUSD has surged higher today on the back of the weaker USD, and also positive Australian outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The push upwards today was very strong and cracked through the trend line before hitting resistance around the 20 day moving average. The bears have since pushed it back down but the new daily candle is searching to find weakness and it may find it with the current weak USD. I'm not sure how much further it can however rise, but resistance at 0.7323 and 0.7400 are likely to be strong targets for traders in the market. If we do see a fall back down the charts and the trend continuing then I would expect to see support at 0.7219 and 0.7157 be the focus.

Oil has surged today on the back of a number of key things. Firstly there are talks that Saudi Arabia and Russia are looking to extend further rate cuts. Additionally, the USD has been somewhat weaker and this always leads to a rise in the value of oil in the short term. Further adding to this is the fact that refineries in the US are starting to come back into full swing, and there demand for oil products will increase to make up for lost ground - if they're not already at full capacity. US oil inventory data would normally be the next thing also to focus on for oil traders but due to the US public holiday it's going to be a day later than normal.

Image

Technical traders will be focused on the failure of oil to break through resistance today at 48.82. For some time now there has been a bearish expectation for the market and it had been trending lower, but the last few days have seen jumps and expectations are the bulls might be looking to take control again. Certainly oil is big on trending, but each wave has been weaker. If the market fails to break and hold above 48.82 then I would expect it to swing lower to 46.50 and 45.47.


More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

Image
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 227
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:04 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

USD beats monday blues



Image


The dollar has begun a strong rally on the charts and US markets are surprisingly upbeat, most likely on the bipartisan actions that have occurred in the US, with Trump working with the democrats to push through debt ceiling reform and provide aid for Harvey and Hurricane Irma as it hits Florida. This US resolve has been somewhat missing over the previous month, with many struggles and failures for the Trump administration as well as added heat from the investigation into Russia and its influence in the recent US elections. Some economic information also had a boost with consumer credit lifting positively to 18.5B (15B exp) showing that the consumption based economy which is the United States is still going ahead full steam and there may be plenty more left in the tank.

With all the turmoil recently for the USD the one winner may in fact be the S&P 500, which has been lifting on speculation that the FED will not lift interest rates in December as many had been expecting. The mindset is that the hurricanes will have an impact on the economy, and force the FED to act more dovish in the later part of the year. So with the FED being dovish the S&P 500 is looking to close at record highs and the market is poised to continue its bullish run against all odds.

Image

With the S&P climbing through resistance at 2484 and closing above the market is looking quite bullish an extension up to the magic 2500 mark looks on the cards. Anything above the 2500 mark would most likely be aiming for the next psychological level at 2524. In the event we did see a strong pull back on the chart my focus would be on 2484 and 2459 with the 100 day moving average being the real test if the markets start to become bearish.

The other key pair which has certainly been in the headlights today has been the cable which saw some stiff resistance at 1.3224. Now the UK economy has been undergoing a tough time with the uncertainty around Brexit and this has not been helped by comments from the Euro-zone which have tried to undermine the position of the British. But for the most part it has been dollar weakness which has enable the pound to climb so high. A reversal of this position could certainly be in the works after failing to climb any higher at 1.3224.

Image

Expectations are now building that we could see the bears taken a decent swipe as the market swings lower. I would certainly be aware of the 20 day moving average which does have a habit of providing support. Traders are likely to target the key area of 1.3000 which is a psychological level, but also a strong area of support and could be the land in the sand for the bulls to look to regain control - it certainly has a lot to play for around this level given the recent history.


More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

Image
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 227
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:35 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Global tensions set to boost metals



Image


North Korea is on the move again when it comes to upsetting the western world, as reports are now surfacing that they will test launch another ICBM and potentially point it towards pacific targets. With the latest rounds of sanctions having little to no effect, it seems likely that the US may rattle its sabre once more at North Korea with further tough talk, this could in turn have a flow on effect in the markets which will look to hedge on any escalation risk. Albeit at the last possible moment if traders can help it, but so far the bounce off these events has been substantial. One of the key winners of such trades is indeed precious metals, which speculators enjoy to the fullest when it comes to hedging against risk. While traditionally a hedge against inflation, it has since become the go to move for traders look to hedge against political events as well.


Image


Silver for me is the key metal I will be watching for a number of reasons. Firstly it's a little more robust technically than gold, and secondly it seems to be less likely to spike wildly on big movements but instead take a direction and go with it. Also for silver traders support was recently tested at 17.696 and the market quickly pushed back on the occasion. So far the bulls are trying to hold and are holding out on a weaker USD and further political upheaval. In the event it does slide further the next level can be found at around 17.352, however, the 20 day moving average should also be treated as dynamic support in this instance as well. On the upside it's clear to see that resistance can be found at 18.214 and 18.607, beyond these levels might be quite hard as silver does start to struggle above the 20 dollar mark, but any massive unrest could certainly send it flying higher.

If you're looking for further excitement in your trading day then the Australian dollar is set to swing low or high depending on your views of the current employment data due out shortly. The Australian labour market has been full of surprises recently, and many Australians are expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to perk up more if the labour market continues to expand at the present pace. Today's reading is expected to come in at 20K, but the previous reading of 27.9K is what the market may be hungering for here. Certainly any movements in the participation rate will also be closely watched as well.


Image



At present the AUDUSD has slipped back under the 80 cent market and is trending lower on the stronger USD. Resistance can be found at 0.8000 and 0.8110 with the 80 cent market likely to break on positive employment data. In the event we see weaker than expected data then I would expect the AUD to plunge sharply down to support at 0.7901 and potentially 0.7821 in the coming weeks.


More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

Image
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 227
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:22 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

RBA minutes offer guidance on economy


Image



The Australian economy has hit the spotlights as the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes are out. As usual it's quick to point the finger at the Australian dollar as being a potential catalyst of pain for the prospect of further expansion in the economy, namely inflation. The feeling is that the weaker USD is likely to be a temporary thing and that there is potential for the AUD to sink lower in the long run. Generally speaking, central banks have a poor track record of managing currency expectations on these sort of subjects, given they can't control markets at all. Also to add to it all China expectations continue to increase and the mining sector has the potential to improve further in the long run in the wake of weaker prices. For me this seems likely that the Australian economy will improve, but for now the RBA is certainly not pushing for a rate rise - even as the labour market picks up.

Image

The AUDUSD has been a mover in recent weeks and the higher high it recently achieved was a very bullish sign. However, the weaker USD has been the main driver for any commodity currency rises. With the AUD trending lower at present it seems the bears are in control, even though we've had more bullish waves. Support at 0.7901 is likely to be a key moment to see if the bears either take control or the bulls surge back into the market. If we do see a push through then 0.7821 is likely to be the next level lower. If the AUDUSD does surge back higher then resistance at the 0.8006 is likely to be the main level with a weaker level at 0.8110, but it's unlikely to test these levels in a hurry.

NZD traders should be aware that the NZD is in for a bumpy ride ahead of this Saturday and the NZD might not be the same after the weekend. What I am speaking about it is political elections, and the ramifications for the market as a result. Currently it's a two horse race for two major parties to potentially govern, however, one is left wing and one is right wing. So the market could drop suddenly or spike suddenly depending on polls in the lead up to the election. Either way despite all the market movements it's one to be careful of but also creates strong opportunities for fundamental speculators.

Image

For the NZDUSD it's currently looking like it may be stuck in a ranging pattern and playing of key levels. Resistance levels can be found at 0.7322 and 0.7400 and I would expect these to be tested if the current government is maintained. Support levels, on the other hand, can be found at 0.7219 and 0.7157 - these are likely to be tested in the build up to the election as traders get a bit spooked and could be smashed if a left wing government is elected at present. Either way strong levels and political uncertainty can give traders great opportunities for targeting.


More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

Image
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 227
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:26 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Trade balance data weighs on NZD this week


Image


The New Zealand has been the weakest trade for Monday, but that was in part to markets holding off on economic data coming out the following morning. We now know why as trade balance data was much worse than expected at -1.24B (NZD) and exports dipped to 3.69B (4.63B prev). This will certainly raise eye brows for NZD traders but also the Reserve Bank of New Zealand who always takes a very careful approach when dealing with trade balance data. Expectations are now that the RBNZ may in fact look to hold off further rate rises if we see further weakness, especially in the labour market. A drop in the NZDUSD however may assist the RBNZ at the end of the day as it feels that at present it is overvalued when sitting in the 70 cent range and would prefer something in the low 60s; at a more traditional trade weighted value.


Image


For the NZDUSD bulls the time may be up on the good run. It has been the case of a weaker USD helping drive commodity currencies higher and the NZD has benefited greatly accordingly. However, dollar bears have eased off and as a result the weakness in the NZD is starting to show. Thus far the 20 day moving average has acted as dynamic support for movements lower on the daily chart, but I feel it can't slow it much further. Support levels from a price standpoint can be found at 0.7219 and 0.7157; these levels are like to come under stress and a further extension below 0.7157 would pave the way for more aggressive bearish action. In the event that markets turned upwards I would be surprised but expect resistance to be found accordingly at 0.7323 and 0.7400, with 0.7400 likely to be the strongest resistance level at present in the market. Traders, however should also be aware that the RBNZ rate decision is due out Wednesday early morning GMT time and will carry some weight with the market, but it's extremely unlikely the rates will move at this time - the statement will be of the biggest impact.

Oil has jumped up the charts in an unprecedented move for a Monday trading day. The jump to resistance at 52.10 is a clear sign that oil has finally crossing back into positive territory. This should come as no surprise as demand has increased globally and the production cuts from OPEC are helping to reduce the glut that plagued the market over the last two years.


Image


For traders looking to fade the bulls on this trade the next levels to target are 54.04 and 55.12 with the 55.12 zone likely to be a very strong candidate for bears to push the market or traders to look to take profit. It would be unexpected to see sharp falls from the current position unless we saw some major dollar strengthening. However, it seems to be a mixed bag for the dollar at present.


More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

Image
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 227
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postby FXTM Official » Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:17 am

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Brexit steals spotlight in late trading


Image


The pound has been the strongest currency today on the back of positive Brexit news that the UK government is looking like it may have it under control. The Prime Minister of the UK, Theresa May spoke positively to the house of commons today about talks in private with the EU and that they were much better than what the public realised. She was quick to show strength around negotiating the exit from the EU and also retaining access to the single market. It will be interesting to see what the EU has to say on this however, as they've said it will take a miracle to get all of this over the line. Especially with the major point of freedom of movement being the elephant in the room that seems to cause Brexit to trip up constantly. Further news will certainly develop during the course of the week, but I can't see the EU backing down and being positive around talks anytime soon, especially as they seem to have a lot of leverage in this negotiation.

Image

Looking at the charts and it's clear to see the GBPUSD bounced sharply on the 100 day moving average, showing that there is very much the case for bulls to stay in this market. With the prospect of a Bank of England rate rise in the near future there are positive signs for the pound, but that won't be an event till next month. Resistance levels higher are looking like key targets at 1.3219 and 1.3339 at this stage, and I would expect the potential for further extensions higher as well if the BoE talks about the rate rise prospects more so. If the market does slip lower I would watch the 100 day moving average and also the bullish trend line which has been in play for some time. This is a key area for the bulls to take advantage, when looking to tackle the bears.

The Euro has also been an interesting one as well as the EURGBP continues to be a bit of a battle between the two Brexit sides, and it certainly has clawed back a lot of ground over the past year of all this turmoil. After dropping sharply the Euro has managed to grab back some ground from the Pound but it looks unlikely to continue unless the UK can make real promise on its Brexit talk.

Image

At present the EURGBP came under selling pressure today, but support at 0.8918 showed that many traders still believe the Euro is going to be the winner in the long run. The 100 day moving average also added to the bulls favour as well with the support level. Expectations are that if the Euro-zone shows a strong hand then it could lift higher to 0.9038 and further levels at 0.9136. I would expect that it could potentially go higher, but we could see some back and forth in the mean time so it's hard to say just yet.


More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis
FXTM Official
 
Posts: 227
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:27 am

PreviousNext

Return to Dive Deeper - Forex News and Fundamental Analysis

 

Who is online on Forum

Registered users: Baidu [Spider], Bing [Bot], Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], Yahoo [Bot]