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August 23nd- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

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August 23nd- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Tue Aug 23, 2011 8:27 am

TD Securities, ANZ: outlook for NZD

RBNZ

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's quarterly survey shows that the CPI expectations for the year ahead were 2.94% compared with 3.12% in a similar survey held the previous quarter, while inflation expectations for the next 2 years decreased from 3.00% in the previous survey to 2.86%.

Strategists at TD Securities note that during the next 2 years inflation expectations are likely to stay higher than actual inflation. In their view, in September the RBNZ can reverse its emergency 50-basis-points rate cut made in March after a massive earthquake in the nation's second largest city. Then the central bank is expected to stay on hold for several months judging the impact of the overseas economic issues on the outlook for exports and commodity prices.

Impact of China’s PMI

Analysts at ANZ believe that New Zealand’s currency is supported by the positive preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing PMI data. Investors’ risk sentiment has slightly improved after the Asian stocks performed well.

The market players will look for the drivers mainly from the global risk picture. On Wednesday, however, one should watch important 2Q retail sales figures.

Technical analysis

NZD/USD broke above resistance at $0.8320.

According to ANZ specialists, support for kiwi lies at $0.8220. If things go bearish and the pair falls below the psychological level of $0.80, it may drop to the 3-month minimum sliding during the next 2 weeks to its 200-day MA at $0.7868.

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Re: August 23nd- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:09 pm

NAB: Aussie rose versus the greenback

Australian dollar rose today versus its US counterpart from the day’s minimum at $1.0385 to the levels in the $1.0500 area.

There are 2 reasons for Aussie’s gains: firstly, the better-than-expected Chinese Manufacturing PMI data that brightened the market’s sentiment and, secondly, comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia's deputy governor, Ric Battellino.

The HSBC preliminary PMI went up from 49.3 in July to the 2-month maximum at 49.8 in August.

Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi believe that the figures mean that investors don’t need to be too pessimistic about the growth pace in China.

Battellino claimed that inflation remains a big concern for the RBA. The official underlined that the strength of the national currency doesn't warrant intervention by the central bank and in the current situation the attempts to weaken Aussie’s rate would bring no results.

Economists at National Australia Bank think that such remarks mean that the central bank will stay on hold on the September 6 meeting, while the fixed-income market has been widely expecting about the possible rate cuts.

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Jyske bank recommends buying USD/JPY

Currency strategists at Jyske bank advise investors to buy the greenback versus Japanese yen stopping below 75.75 and targeting 79.50 as they think that the pair USD/JPY will move gradually up on the expectations of the Bank of Japan’s interventions.

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Re: August 23nd- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Tue Aug 23, 2011 4:32 pm

Charmer Charts: comments on EUR/USD

Technical analysts at Charmer Charts note that if the single currency manages to stay above $1.4330/55 versus the greenback, it will manage to rise to 1.4520.

The specialists warn, however, that if the pair EUR/USD slides below 1.4330, it will be poised down to 1.4285.

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Re: August 23nd- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Tue Aug 23, 2011 6:40 pm

UBS: pound may rise above $1.66

Technical analysts at UBS are bullish on GBP/USD despite the fact that pound didn’t managed today to overcome resistance at $1.6575. In their view, sterling will eventually rise to $1.6618 and $1.6661. The specialists think that the key support for British currency lies at $1.6421.

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