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August 22nd- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

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August 22nd- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:36 pm

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD

As it was expected, last week the pair GBP/USD consolidated above the Standard line (1) that is acting as a support.

All lines of the Indicator are horizontal (1, 2, 3 and 4).

The bullish Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) though isn’t very wide, keep supporting pound.

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Daily GBP/USD

On the daily chart pound managed to overcome resistance provided by Tenkan-sen (1) and get out of the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair GBP/USD was rising during the first half of the week. Then on Thursday and Friday sterling’s rate went a bit down, though the new week began with the bulls pushing the prices higher.

The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) rose continuing to move parallel each other holding the “golden cross” in place.

At the moment all lines of the Indicator (1, 2, 3 and 4) are going sideways), Tenkan and Kijun are supporting the pair. The rising Ichimoku Cloud has widened up as its upper border – Senkou Span A went higher (3).

Sterling is going to consolidate or pulls back to the Turning line (1) and after that British currency is likely to resume growth.

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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY

Last week the pair USD/JPY remained in the area of the record minimums: on the one hand, the demand for Japanese currency as the safe haven remained high due to the continuing risk aversion and, on the other hand, the risk of further Bank of Japan’s interventions held US currency from falling.

The greenback doesn’t have any significant support, while resistance to it is provided by the horizontal Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) as well as by the descending Ichimoku Cloud (3). The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (1) still keep the “dead cross” in place.

This week US currency may try to recover to Tenkan-sen (1).

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Daily USD/JPY

During the whole week US dollar was trading within the narrow range: neither bulls, nor bears were decisive enough to push the market in their side.

At the same time, the Turning line has gone sharply down (2). As a result, Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen remained within the strong “dead cross” formation. The descending Ichimoku Cloud has widened as Senkou Span A has plunged, while Senkou Span B went down mildly.

At the same time, the pair has at last found some support opening above Tenkan. So, this week the bulls may be more active, though any advance of the pair is likely to be limited. It’s necessary to watch with great attention US economic news this week.

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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF

On the weekly chart US dollar is still holding above the Turning line (1) that is acting as a support.

At the same time, the downtrend is going on. The Ichimoku Cloud remains bearish. The majority of the lines of the chart are directed down (2, 3 and 4), while only Tenkan-sen has switched to the horizontal mode (1).

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vanvirtue
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Re: 22.08.11

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:10 pm

Daily USD/CHF

The Swiss National Bank didn’t manage to achieve the results it was counting on while easing policy and pumping more liquidity at Swiss franc’s market. Never the less, the situation at USD/CHF has slightly improved.

The prices, for example, are consolidating above the Standard line (2). In addition, the Turning line (1) has urged up (1) ready to cross Kijun-sen bottom-up (2). Resistance for the rate is provided only by rather narrow Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4).

The signal to by dollars will come if the lagging Chinkou Span indicated with green color breaks up the price chart and Kijun and Tenkan form the “golden cross”. At the same time, it’s necessary to note that the horizontal Standard line (2) and Senkou Span B point at the possibility of the rate’s consolidation.

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Re: 22.08.11

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Aug 22, 2011 4:42 pm

Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the pair GBP/USD has climbed from the minimums in the 1.6110 area hit at the beginning of August to last week’s maximum at $1.6617. In their view, pound is now going to consolidate at the current levels during the next few days. On the upside, sterling’s attempts will be limited by the resistance at $1.6617.

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BNP Paribas, BBH: EUR/USD will pull back down

The single currency rose versus the greenback from the levels in the $1.4050 area to the $1.4400 zone.

However, currency strategists at BNP Paribas believe that EUR/USD will fail to rise above $1.45. In their view, the pair is struck between $1.41 and $1.45. The specialists note that euro will get under negative pressure in case of weak euro-zone data such as PMIs, ZEW and IFO that are released this week.

Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman claim that as the deterioration of the global economic outlook and renewed fears about European banks strengthened investors’ risk aversion and made stock markets slump last week, the demand for riskier currencies such as euro will be low and the pair EUR/USD will fall to $1.4000.

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[img]Commerzbank:%20comments%20on%20USD/JPY[/img]

On Friday the greenback renewed the record minimum against Japanese yen by falling to 75.94. However, the pair USD/JPY managed to jump above the previous lows in the 76.25/30 area and return to the former trading range, reports Commerzbank. The bank specialists expect American currency to stay there during the coming days. In their view, the bias will be slightly positive.

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