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August/29/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

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August/29/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Aug 29, 2011 10:24 am

[SIZE="5"]Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD[/SIZE]

Weekly GBP/USD

On the weekly chart GBP/USD keeps consolidating above the Standard line (1) which is acting as a support.

All lines of the Indicator are horizontal (1, 2, 3 and 4). Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) keep holding the “dead cross” in place (5), though the signal isn’t strong as it was formed above Kumo and only slightly holds the pair from getting higher.

The bullish Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) keeps supporting pound though it has narrowed

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[SIZE="5"]Chart. Weekly GBP/USD[/SIZE]

Daily GBP/USD

Last week the prices have made a corrective decline within the general move up.

On Wednesday and Thursday the pair went sharply down breaking firstly down through the Turning line (1) and then through the Standard line (2), though on Friday pound managed to push up from the support line and reverse upwards. The new week has begun with the bulls pushing the prices higher: sterling was already successfully brought back above Kijun-sen (2).

Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) went horizontally holding the “golden cross in place”. The Preceding lines – Senkou Span A and B also move sideways.

The rising Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) keeps pointing at an uptrend. The pair is likely to consolidate above Kijun (2).

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Re: August/29/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Aug 29, 2011 10:28 am

[SIZE="5"]Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY[/SIZE]

Weekly USD/JPY

On the weekly USD/JPY chart the situation didn’t change much. The prices remain in the area of the record minimums, in the narrow range between 76 and 77 yen: on the one hand, the demand for Japanese currency remained high due to the continuing risk aversion and, on the other hand, the risk of further Bank of Japan’s interventions held US currency from falling.

US dollar still lacks support, while resistance is provided by the horizontal Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) as well as by the descending Ichimoku Cloud (3). The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (1) still keep the strong “dead cross” in place.

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[SIZE="5"]Chart. Weekly USD/JPY[/SIZE]

Daily USD/JPY

On Friday US dollar went above the Turning line (1) that has turned from support to resistance.

All lines of the indicator are horizontal (1, 2, 3 and 4) that means that the market may keep moving sideways.

Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) remain in the “dead cross”. The descending Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) keep holding US currency under pressure

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Re: August/29/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Aug 29, 2011 10:45 am

[SIZE="5"]Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF[/SIZE]

Weekly USD/CHF

On the weekly chart the pair USD/CHF continues the advance that it has started at the beginning of August. The greenback is confidently above the Turning line (1) that’s acting as a support and approached the resistance provided by the Standard line (2).

At the same time, the general downtrend remains and the pair’s growth still may turn out to be merely a correction. The Ichimoku Cloud remains bearish, though the lines Senkou Span A (3) and B (4) stopped declining.

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Daily USD/CHF

On the daily chart USD/CHF has tested resistance line of the downtrend from February maximum. The next obstacle on the pair’s way will be the Ichimoku Cloud.

The descending Cloud itself (4) has narrowed almost to a point and Senkou Span A seems to get above Senkou Span B, though the distance between the 2 lines is almost zero.

The Turning line which went up (1) supports the greenback helping US currency to get higher. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen (2) have formed the “golden cross” (3), though the strength of the signal isn’t very strong as it happened below Kumo.

All in all, the bulls have chance to enter the Cloud. It’s necessary to watch the lagging Chinkou Span that has approached the price chart (5).

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Re: August/29/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Aug 29, 2011 4:32 pm

Noda will become Japan’s Prime Minister

Japan’s finance minister Yoshihiko Noda was elected head of Democratic Party of Japan, the nation’s ruling party, and is on his way to take the prime minister’s seat. Tomorrow the DPJ is going to use its majority in the lower house to appoint him as premier to succeed Naoto Kan.

The main challenges for Noda will be to help the economy that contracted during the 3 quarters in a row and restore confidence in his party.

Noda’s expected to lift up the taxes in order to pay for reconstruction and shore up the welfare system – the policymaker has recently claimed that there should be no retreat from a pledge to double the sales tax to 10% by the middle of the decade. Analysts at Nomura Securities note that this might support Japanese bond market. Japanese authorities plan to spend 19 trillion yen ($248 billion) over the next 5 years to rebuild from the earthquake and tsunami.

Strategists at Barclays Capital think that Japan's currency interventions policy won’t change as the DPJ's regime will maintain. However, the specialists say that the situation will change if Noda manages to form coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party and the New Komeito – Kan failed to do that after March 11 earthquake.

On August 24 Moody’s Investors Service lowered Japan’s credit rating by one step to Aa3 due to the government’s lack of efforts about reducing the nation’s huge debt.

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The greenback weakened after Bernanke’s speech

Here are the key points of the Federal Reserve’s Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Friday speech:

- The Fed has a range of tools that it may use to encourage the nation’s economy if needed (though Bernanke didn’t signal QE3).

- September FOMC meeting is stretched for 2 days and will take place on September 20-21 (Bernanke may try to take time and convince FOMC, primarily Fisher, Kocherlakota and Plosser, in the necessity of more monetary easing).

Analysts at Barclays Capital believe that the decision to lengthen the meeting will keep the market expecting more monetary stimulus.

European and Asian stocks are up, the pair EUR/USD reached maximum at $1.4550, though strategists at UBS advise investors to be cautious because euro is facing the risks from German economic slowdown and concerns about euro zone's debt markets.

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Re: August/29/2011- Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

Postby vanvirtue » Mon Aug 29, 2011 4:33 pm

The results of the central bankers’ meeting in Jackson Hole

The main message of the central bankers’ meeting that took place in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this weekend was that monetary policy can’t sustain the expansion of the global economy alone.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called American authorities to improve the situation at the housing market and be careful not to harm the short-term economic growth.

Ewald Nowotny, the member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, said that the euro zone nations have to expand the bailout fund.

August was a rather difficult month for the Fed and the ECB as the central banks were forced to support the economy: the Fed pledged to keep the borrowing costs at the record minimum at least until the middle of 2013, while the ECB began buying Spanish and Italian bonds to ease the concerns about the debt crisis.

The IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, who took the post in July, warned that the world’s economy is entering dangerous phase. In her view, the risks are higher as the policy makers aren’t determined to take the necessary decisions.
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