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Daily Technical Analysis by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Analysis by Kate Curtis of Trader's Way . Kate Curtis updates the outlook and analysis daily in this sub-forum.
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USD/CAD Resistance Turned Support (July 12, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Fri Jul 12, 2013 6:10 am

The disappointing FOMC meeting minutes triggered a sharp selloff for USD/CAD, pushing it below the 1.0500 handle and down to the 1.0350 area. Stochastic is already in the oversold region, suggesting that a potential bounce could take place soon.

The pair is currently stalling around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which is in line with a former resistance area.

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There are no reports due from Canada today, but the US is set to print its PPI data and UoM consumer sentiment report. Stronger than expected figures could remind traders that the Fed is still relatively one of the more hawkish central banks, which could renew demand for the US dollar.

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GBP/USD: Asian Box Setup (July 16, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Tue Jul 16, 2013 5:24 am

GBP/USD is making a tight consolidation pattern on its shorter-term time frames (1-hour and 15-minute charts), as traders await the release of the UK CPI data.

Annual inflation is expected to reach 3.0% in June, after climbing from 2.4% to 2.7% in May. This would imply that inflation is way beyond the central bank’s 2.0% target, which would mean that the Bank of England has very limited options when it comes to loosening monetary policy.

A reading in line with expectations or higher might trigger pound buying, as it would imply that the BOE will be less inclined to lower interest rates or increase asset purchases in the near future. A lower reading could be bearish for the pound.

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A straddle trade for the release might be a good strategy, as the pair found resistance at 1.5115 and support around 1.5085. Going long at around 1.5125 or going short at 1.5075 could work for a day trade. Aiming for the previous lows around 1.5000 or the previous highs at 1.5200 with tight stops could yield a decent reward-to-risk for a day trade.

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AUD/USD Falling Channel (July 17, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Wed Jul 17, 2013 6:47 am

AUD/USD’s rally might soon be over as the pair is finding resistance at the top of the falling channel on the 1-hour time frame. Stochastic just crossed down from the overbought region and is pointing down, suggesting heavy selling pressure up ahead.

Those needing more confirmation could wait for momentum to push the pair below the .9200 major psychological level. Bernanke is set to make a speech in today’s US session and possibly boost the dollar if he maintains that the Fed is ready to reduce bond purchases by the end of this year.

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The pair could fall back to the .9000 major psychological support level, which is also around the bottom of the channel. A stop above the .9300 handle could yield a 2:1 trade while a stop right above the channel test would give a larger reward to risk potential.

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USD/CAD Double Bottom Formation (July 18, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Thu Jul 18, 2013 6:25 am

USD/CAD seems ready to bounce back from its recent selloffs, as the pair formed a reversal pattern on its 1-hour time frame.

Recall that USD/CAD is already finding support at a retracement level and former resistance around 1.0375. The pair made a couple of attempts to break below this barrier recently but failed.

With that, a double bottom has formed with support at the 1.0350-1.0375 area and a neckline near 1.0450. A breakout above the neckline would confirm that the short-term downtrend is over and that a rally might take place.

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The pattern is around 100 pips tall so the breakout could go as high as 1.0550. Aiming for this level with a stop below 1.0400 would yield a 2:1 trade.

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Riding the GBP/USD Uptrend (July 19, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Fri Jul 19, 2013 5:49 am

The uptrend for Cable is still going on the 1-hour time frame, as the pair is trading inside a channel with higher lows and higher highs. The pair is currently sitting around the middle of the channel, picking a direction to go.

In addition, a symmetrical triangle has formed, and an upside breakout could continue into an upside break from the top of the channel. Otherwise, the pair could keep edging lower and eventually find support at the bottom of the channel.

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Stochastic is pointing down, suggesting that pound bears could be in control at the moment.

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EUR/USD: Ascending Triangle (July 22, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Mon Jul 22, 2013 8:22 am

EUR/USD: Ascending Triangle (July 22, 2013)

EUR/USD is still stuck in consolidation for now, with an ascending triangle pattern forming on its 1-hour time frame.

An upside breakout could signal that the pair is headed all the way up to the previous high around 1.3400 while a downside break could mean that EUR/USD will be on its way to test the former lows around 1.2750 again.

Stochastic is in the overbought region, suggesting that a downward move might be more likely as euro bulls are running out of steam. However, the oscillator has yet to cross down before the sell signal is confirmed.

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There are no major reports on deck from the euro zone today but the US will be releasing its existing home sales report. A strong figure could trigger enough dollar buying to push EUR/USD below the bottom of the triangle, but the upcoming reports for the week could be more crucial in sustaining momentum.

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Re: Daily Technical Analysis by Kate Curtis from Trader's Wa

Postby katetrades » Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:43 am

USD/CAD Canadian Retail Sales Setup (July 23, 2013)

USD/CAD has been selling off aggressively but the pair could take a break from its recent dives, as it approaches the 1.0300 major psychological level. This is in line with a former resistance level and area of interest, as well as the rising trend line connecting the pair’s lows.

Canada is set to print its core and headline retail sales figures and possibly show a recovery in both. Core retail sales could rebound by 0.1% after falling by 0.3% last month while the headline figure could print a 0.4% uptick, higher than the previous 0.1% growth. However, weaker than expected data could trigger a selloff for the Canadian dollar.

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Stochastic is already in the oversold region, suggesting that a potential bounce is in the cards.

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EUR/GBP Setup for Euro Zone PMI Releases (July 24, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Wed Jul 24, 2013 6:36 am

Two of the largest economies in the euro zone, namely Germany and France, will be printing their manufacturing and services PMIs in today’s UK session. Small improvements are expected, although most of the figures are likely to stay below the 50.0 level indicating industry expansion.

Strong data could allow the euro to go for more gains and possibly end the day stronger against the pound. As seen on the 4-hour time frame, the pair is finding support at the former resistance level around .8600.

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Stochastic has moved out of the oversold region and is still pointing upwards, suggesting that further rallies could be in sight. If that’s the case, EUR/GBP could climb back up to its recent highs around .8700.

A stop below the 61.8% Fib or .8570 might be a safe enough line in the sand if you plan to go long.

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AUD/USD Range Setup (July 25, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:31 am

AUD/USD suffered a heavy selloff in yesterday’s trading, as the .9300 handle held as strong resistance and pushed the pair to the middle of its range.

Weak Chinese PMI was the culprit for the selloff, as the HSBC figure printed a deeper contraction for July. However, the quarterly inflation report from Australia came in line with consensus and printed a 0.4% uptick in price levels.

AUD/USD could be on its way to test the bottom of the range and, if you’re in the bear camp, you can still catch a short trade from its current levels or on a shorter-term retracement until .9050. On the other hand, if you’re in the bull camp, you can wait for a test of .9050 before going long.

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Stochastic is already in the oversold region but hasn’t quite moved up yet, which suggests that the selling pressure is still there but it could run out soon.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
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AUD/USD Short-Term Resistance (July 26, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Fri Jul 26, 2013 5:00 am

AUD/USD appears to be forming a smaller range on its 1-hour time frame. The pair is on its way to test resistance at the .9300 major psychological level while stochastic is giving the overbought signal.

There are no reports due from Australia or the U.S. today, which suggests that the pair could stay within consolidation.

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If that’s the case, AUD/USD could edge back down to test the bottom of the range around the .9150 minor psychological level by the end of the week or next week. A tight stop above the previous spike near .9320 would yield a good reward-to-risk ratio.

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