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Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Postby katetrades » Wed Mar 13, 2013 9:16 am

Trader's Way, a prime online Forex and CFD broker, here offers you Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis, the company's expert with deep trading and analysis experience.
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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 13, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Wed Mar 13, 2013 9:17 am

USD: Bullish

The U.S. is set to release its retail sales report for February at 1:30 pm GMT today. The headline figure could show a 0.5% increase while the core version of the report could also show a 0.5% uptick as well. Take note that the U.S. NFP for February came in much stronger than expected as the economy added 236K jobs during the month, effectively bringing the jobless rate down from 7.9% to 7.7%. Jobs growth tends to result in stronger consumer spending, which hints at a potential upside surprise for the U.S. retail sales figures. Positive U.S. data has been boosting the Greenback these days as markets are trading on fundamentals.

EUR: Neutral

EUR/USD has been holding its ground above the 1.3000 major psychological level as it continues to move mostly sideways for the week. Perhaps the lack of economic events and political updates from the euro zone is to blame for the pair’s range-bound behavior, which could continue unless we see a significant shift in market sentiment.

GBP: Bearish

Although there are no major reports from the U.K. today, yesterday’s weak manufacturing production release could be enough to trigger another round of pound selling. The report chalked up a surprisingly huge 1.5% decline for January, its steepest decline in months, instead of staying flat during the period. This increases the odds that the country will suffer another economic contraction this quarter, putting the U.K. back in a technical recession.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD): Bullish

AUD/USD just broke above the 1.0300 major psychological level yesterday as traders started pricing in positive expectations for the Australian employment report due tomorrow. Meanwhile, NZD/USD is still stuck in a range as traders await the actual RBNZ interest rate decision. Rumor has it that RBNZ head Graeme Wheeler is mulling a rate cut just to keep the Kiwi’s gains in check but other analysts expect no changes in monetary policy at all. If that’s the case, NZD/USD could rally back up to the .8300 major psychological resistance and even make a break above that.

JPY: Neutral

The yen has been staying afloat so far this week as traders are still uneasy about buying up higher-risk currencies. Data from Japan has been mixed though as manufacturing showed an improvement while the services sector posted a downturn. No major reports are due from Japan today as the yen could be extra sensitive to risk sentiment as usual.

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 14, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Thu Mar 14, 2013 8:16 am

USD: Bullish

The U.S. dollar once again found support from stronger than expected economic data during yesterday’s trading. The retail sales figure for February came in at 1.1%, better than the estimated 0.5% uptick, while the core version posted a 1.0% increase for the month. For today, the U.S. will print its PPI and initial jobless claims, both of which could once more boost the U.S. dollar if the actual data comes in strong.

EUR: Neutral

There aren’t a lot of catalysts from the euro zone these days as EUR/USD continues to trade carefully below the 1.3000 area. For now, euro pairs are acting sensitive to their counter currencies’ events. In particular, EUR/USD sold off when strong U.S. retail sales boosted the dollar while EUR/JPY edged higher on uncertainty in Japan.

GBP: Bearish

GBP/USD seems to have found resistance close to 1.5000 during yesterday’s trading as strong U.S. retail sales prevented the pair from heading any higher. There are no major reports from the U.K. today but the downbeat outlook for the U.K. and expectations of further BOE easing could continue to weigh the pound down.

AUD: Bullish

The Australian economy just printed a very strong jobs report for February as the economy added 71.5K jobs during the quarter and kept the jobless rate steady at 5.4% instead of rising to 5.5%. This suggests that the jobs sector is making a strong rebound and doesn’t need further stimulus from the RBA. On top of that, the previous month’s figure enjoyed an upward revision from 10.4K to 13.1K

NZD: Bearish

The Kiwi sold off aggressively after the RBNZ delivered its monetary policy statement during today’s Tokyo session. The central bank did keep rates on hold at 2.50% as expected but Wheeler noted the downturn in domestic economic activity. He blamed the worsening drought conditions and the strength of the New Zealand dollar for this slowdown, citing that the Kiwi is overvalued by 10-15%.

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 15, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Fri Mar 15, 2013 11:52 am

USD: Neutral

The U.S. dollar lost a lot of ground to its major currency counterparts during yesterday’s trading as we saw a short squeeze, particularly for GBP/USD and EUR/USD. It seems that the selloffs are no longer able to carry on and most traders simply decided to book profits at the pairs’ previous lows. Data from the U.S. has been mostly strong as the PPI and core PPI came in line with expectations while the initial jobless claims report printed a better than expected figure. Watch out for today’s set of data (CPI, core CPI, Empire State manufacturing index, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment figure) during the New York session as these could confirm whether the U.S. dollar is still trading on fundamentals or has shifted to risk sentiment.

EUR: Bearish

The euro may have outpaced the U.S. dollar by a huge lead during yesterday’s trading as most traders decided to close out their short euro positions at the pair’s recent lows. However, there’ s a chance that the recent EUR/USD rally might not have enough energy to stay above the 1.3000 major psychological level for long as fundamentals in the euro zone are still very weak. Take note though that EU officials are having their economic summit today until the end of the week, which might be an event risk for euro pairs.

GBP: Bearish

The sterling was also able to outrun the U.S. dollar during yesterday’s trading as GBP/USD successfully broke above the 1.5000 major psychological level and later on the 1.5100 major psychological level. Some say that this was simply a result of a short squeeze for the pair as traders locked in their profits on their short pound positions. After all, fundamentals in the U.K. are still shaky and the BOE is still inclined to implement further easing. If the rally shows signs of fading, watch out for potential reversals around the major and minor psychological levels, possibly during the U.S. session.

AUD: Neutral

It looks like the recently released strong jobs figures from Australia were a fluke as their statisticians reported an error in the report. However, the Australian dollar still managed to rally strongly against the U.S. dollar, mostly because of the recent short squeeze. No major reports are due from Australia for the rest of the day as the pair’s rally could retreat upon reaching the 1.0400 major psychological level, depending on how U.S. economic releases turn out.

NZD: Neutral

Despite the downbeat RBNZ rate statement wherein Wheeler talked about the overvalued Kiwi, the New Zealand dollar was able to pocket huge gains against the U.S. dollar as it rallied back above .8200 during yesterday’s U.S. session. If the effect of the short squeeze lasts until the end of the week, the Kiwi could keep rallying to its previous highs. On the other hand, if the rally fizzles, NZD/USD could be on its way to test the .8200 support once more.

JPY: Bullish

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seems to be having a tough time garnering enough support for Iwata, who he wants to appoint as deputy governor of the BOJ. Iwata is a known dove, just like the newly appointed BOJ head Kuroda, and putting him in position would mean more aggressive policies to ward off deflation and weaken the yen. Unless Abe is able to get enough votes for Iwata’s nomination though, the yen could continue to gain steadily.

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 18, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Mon Mar 18, 2013 11:01 am

USD: Bearish

Several weekend gaps were made after the short squeeze took place last week as most major currency pairs opened right where they were prior to the profit-taking on Thursday and Friday. This presents an opportunity for weekend gaps to get filled as there are no top-tier economic reports from any of the major economies today. Take note though that the FOMC interest rate decision is coming up midweek and traders could also start pricing in expectations for the event.

EUR: Bullish

The euro underwent a strong rally on Friday as traders continued to book their profits from their recent short trades. However, EUR/USD started the week back below the 1.3000 major psychological level, revealing that the sentiment for the region is still dovish. Nonetheless, with an empty euro zone economic schedule for the day, traders could close the weekend gap and allow the pair to pullback to the 1.3000-1.3050 levels.

GBP: Neutral

After making a strong rally towards the end of the week, GBP/USD is now treading carefully above the 1.5100 major psychological support. There are a bunch of top-tier reports due from the U.K. this week, namely the MPC meeting minutes and claimant count change, along with the CPI and retail sales data. Pound pairs could be in for sideways trading prior to the release of these reports.

AUD: Bullish

There are no reports due from Australia today but traders could start pricing in their expectations for an upbeat RBA monetary policy meeting minutes release tomorrow. Recall that the central bank decided to keep rates unchanged during their recent monetary policy decision as RBA Governor Stevens reiterated that the previous easing efforts are just starting to kick in. After that, Australia started printing strong economic figures, which could mean that the RBA might be more hawkish about the country’s economic prospects this time.

NZD: Neutral

Although last week’s RBNZ monetary policy announcement revealed that Governor Wheeler thought that the Kiwi strength was undermining economic growth, NZD/USD managed to rally from the short squeeze that took place before the end of the week. This week, the downbeat assessment for the New Zealand economy could be highlighted by the GDP release later on this week. Until then, NZD/USD could trade carefully for the next few days.

CAD: Netural

USD/CAD price action is still much choppier compared to most major currency pairs as fundamentals in Canada haven’t been very clear. This week, the Canadian retail sales release should provide more insight on how the economy is performing as consumer spending takes up a huge chunk of overall economic growth.

JPY: Bearish

BOJ Deputy Governor nominee Iwata was finally able to secure enough votes to take his position in the central bank. This means that the doves Kuroda and Iwata are heading the BOJ and that we could expect aggressive easing measures down the line as Japan tries to fight deflation and keep the yen’s value down. Traders just booked their short yen profits recently though, which suggests USD/JPY could pull back to the 94.00 area of interest though before resuming its rally.

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Re: Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Postby katetrades » Wed Mar 20, 2013 8:40 am

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 20, 2013)

USD: Neutral

Most dollar pairs could be in for a lot of tight consolidation during today’s trading sessions as traders sit on their hands prior to the FOMC monetary policy statement. Their most recent rate decision included a mention of potential tapering off of monetary policy stimulus in order to keep inflationary pressures in check yet Federal Reserve head Ben Bernanke was quick to dismiss expectations of an early withdrawal of bond purchases. Today’s FOMC rate decision could set the record straight on what policymakers think should be done about the U.S. economy and if we hear of more concrete plans to tighten monetary policy sooner than later, the U.S. dollar could resume its rally. Otherwise, remarks on persistent weaknesses in the economy could trigger a selloff.

EUR: Bearish

Lawmakers over at Cyprus rejected the recently announced bailout proposal for the country as this involves an unusual one-time tax on deposits in Cypriot banks. This prompted fears of a bank run as some depositors rushed to withdraw their bank holdings to avoid getting slapped with high tax rates. However, the Cypriot parliament voted against this bailout and seems to be considering asking for extra funding from Russia instead. Unless Cyprus is able to get guarantees of enough liquidity to shore up its troubled banks, it could edge closer to a default which would be very negative for the euro.

GBP: Bearish

Pound pairs are trading very carefully these days as yesterday’s inflation releases failed to spark any volatility in GBP/USD. The pair is still stuck around the 1.5100 to 1.5175 area, awaiting for more clues from the U.K. economy. The BOE is scheduled to release the minutes of their latest monetary policy meeting today and this report should shed light on why the central bank still decided to make no changes to its asset purchase program. The minutes would reveal exactly how many policymakers voted for further easing and a higher number this time would reveal that the central bank is becoming increasingly dovish.

JPY: Neutral

Japanese banks are on holiday today, which suggests quiet trading for yen pairs. Markets could be more focused on central bank rhetoric from the U.S. which is awaiting the FOMC statement and the U.K. which will soon release the BOE’s monetary policy meeting minutes. This suggests that USD/JPY and GBP/JPY might be more volatile today compared to other yen pairs.

CHF: Neutral

The Swiss ZEW economic expectations report, which improved from -6.9 to 10.0, in the previous month is set for release today. Another improvement could boost the franc against the U.S. dollar and the euro while a negative reading could trigger a sharp selloff. Franc rallies have been subdued lately as the SNB remains committed to keep the franc’s value down so selling the franc might yield a larger profit potential.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD): Bearish

The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar have all been sliding lower against the lower-yielding U.S. dollar for the past few days as risk aversion is hurting the higher-yielding and riskier assets. The ongoing bailout concerns in Cyprus is mostly to blame for the lack of risk appetite even in equity markets as commodity currencies are very sensitive to market sentiment. New Zealand is set to print its Q4 2012 GDP figure today and a 0.9% expansion is eyed versus the previous 0.2% uptick in growth. A stronger than expected figure could boost the New Zealand dollar while a weak one could result in a selloff.

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Re: Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Postby katetrades » Thu Mar 21, 2013 7:09 am

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 21, 2013)

USD: Neutral

Dollar pairs are stuck in consolidation so far as EUR/USD keeps testing the 1.2950 minor psychological resistance while GBP/USD is still moving sideways around the 1.5100 area. The recent FOMC statement seemed to be a non-event as the Fed kept rates on hold and asset purchases unchanged as expected while Fed head Bernanke didn’t announce anything out of the ordinary. He did reiterate that the central bank would continue to watch employment and inflation very closely in order to determine whether the U.S. economy could survive without monetary policy easing or not. The Fed also lowered their growth forecasts for the year but also predicted slightly lower unemployment later on. For today, jobless claims, existing home sales, and the Philly Fed index are set for release and these reports could spark some volatility among dollar pairs.

EUR: Bullish

EUR/USD has been stuck below the 1.2950 minor psychological resistance lately as the weekend gap still hasn’t been filled. EUR/JPY, on the other hand, is making another test of the 124.00-124.50 area as the pair bounced off its previous lows yesterday. Today’s euro zone PMIs could be big movers for the euro pairs as these reports tend to post nearly the same results. Both German manufacturing and services PMIs are expecting to show improvements for February while staying above the 50.0 mark indicating expansion. French manufacturing and services PMIs are projected to stay below 50.0, but the contraction is expected to slow down in February.

GBP: Neutral

The recently released BOE meeting minutes did spark a bit of volatility during yesterday’s trading but failed to push GBP/USD in a clear direction. The pair remains stuck just above the 1.5100 mark and it appears that the U.K. retail sales report might be the major catalyst for today. Retail sales are projected to rebound by 0.5% in February after slumping by 0.6% during the previous month. Stronger than expected data could eventually push GBP/USD to break to the upside.
JPY: Bearish
The yen sold off against most of its counterparts during yesterday’s trading and might be in for another round today. BOJ Governor Kuroda is scheduled to give his first speech as central bank today and he could outline their plans regarding monetary policy. Remember that Kuroda is a fan of aggressive monetary policy easing, especially since Japan needs to ward off deflation and keep the yen low. Watch out for additional volatility among yen pairs during Kuroda’s speech around 10:00 am GMT.

CAD: Bullish

USD/CAD has been consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle on the 1-hour chart as traders await the release of Canadian retail sales today. The report could show that headline consumer spending rebounded by 0.4% this January after slipping by 0.9% in December while core retail sales could recover by 0.6% after dropping by 2.1% in December. Strong figures could push USD/CAD to break to the downside while weak data could trigger an upside breakout.

AUD: Bullish

There are no major reports due from Australia today as Aussie pairs could simply react to the recent Chinese PMI release or any changes in risk sentiment. The HSBC flash manufacturing PMI in China came in stronger than expected at 51.7 versus 51.2 and the previous 50.4 reading, reflecting stronger expansion in their manufacturing sector. Since China is Australia’s largest importer, improved manufacturing activity could translate to higher demand for Australia’s commodities.

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Re: Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Postby katetrades » Fri Mar 22, 2013 7:14 am

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 22, 2013)

USD: Neutral

There are no major economic releases from the United States, which suggests that dollar pairs could move to currency-specific events. During yesterday’s U.S. session, the dollar lost ground to most of its major counterparts as risk appetite improved across the markets when Cyprus showed signs of delivering an actual bailout deal soon. Data has been mixed as existing home sales fell below expectations and came in at 4.98 million instead of 5.02 million for February while the Philly Fed index landed at 2.0 instead of the estimated -1.6 reading.

JPY: Bearish

Although newly-appointed BOJ head Kuroda’s speech turned out to be a non-event in yesterday’s trading, sentiment for the yen is still bearish as the central bank remains committed to aggressive monetary policy easing measures. Kuroda didn’t exactly specify what kind of “bold quantitative and qualitative” policies he had in mind as he is probably waiting to discuss his plans with the BOJ officials first. No reports are due from Japan today but expectations of further easing from the BOJ in the longer term could drag the yen down.

EUR: Bullish

After recently rejecting the bailout deal from the Troika, the Cypriot parliament was given until next Monday to come up with an alternative plan. Many are hopeful that Cyprus’ lawmakers will be able to draft one up before the deadline, possibly over the weekend, in order to avoid losing necessary capital to shore up its troubled banks. As for economic releases, only the German Ifo business climate report is set for release from the euro zone today. An improvement from 107.4 to 107.8 is expected for March and a stronger than expected result could boost the euro against its major counterparts today.

GBP: Bullish

The pound has been trading choppily for the past few days against the U.S. dollar but the general trend is up. In fact, an inverse head and shoulders pattern seems to be forming on the 4-hour time frame with the neckline located around the 1.5200 major psychological resistance. There are no economic reports due from the U.K. today, which opens the possibility for sideways movement for the rest of the trading day, but improved risk appetite and economic prospects in the U.K. could keep this pair climbing.

CHF: Neutral

There are no reports due from Switzerland today, which suggests that Swiss franc pairs could keep moving sideways until the end of the week. Keep an eye out for updates from the euro zone, particularly those regarding Cyprus’ bailout situation, as this could affect the movement of European currencies.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD): Neutral

There are no major reports from Australia, Canada, or New Zealand today as the commodity currencies could simply move according to risk sentiment in the markets. So far, risk appetite has been improving, as there have been no major threats to the global economy for the past few trading days. Stay tuned for any updates regarding Cyprus’ bailout deal as a new one could help boost higher-yielding currencies once more.

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Re: Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Postby katetrades » Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:04 am

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 25, 2013)

USD: Bullish

Lower-yielding currencies such as the U.S. dollar could gain support this week as pairs are trading cautiously, awaiting more updates from Cyprus’ bailout situation. Only a few U.S. reports are due this shortened trading week as the durable goods orders, CB consumer confidence, and existing home sales numbers are set for release later on. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to give a speech during today’s U.S. session and possibly emphasize the central bank’s focus on economic data, namely inflation and employment figures, in setting monetary policy.

EUR: Neutral

Euro traders are on their toes waiting for an actual bailout deal that will be approved by lawmakers in Cyprus. Their plan of asking for additional liquidity from Russia is no longer an option as the country rejected their request for more funds to shore up Cyprus’ troubled banks. Officials are now looking into issuing emergency bonds, nationalizing pension funds, and taxing deposits in order to secure the necessary funds. The lack of a proposal within the day could push EUR/USD back in selloff mode.

GBP: Bullish

Thanks to the BOE’s decision to keep asset purchases unchanged, the pound enjoying rallies against most of its counterparts. Current account and final GDP figures are on tap this week but these aren’t likely to cause huge moves among pound pairs. For today, the British pound could continue trading on improved sentiment as other European currencies are dealing with their domestic troubles.

CHF: Neutral

No major reports are due from Switzerland for today and for the rest of the week. It seems that the franc is also being weighed down by the brewing Cypriot debt crisis as the euro zone country struggles to come up with a bailout deal and avoid a default. While Switzerland isn’t part of the euro zone bloc, the threat of a contagion among European countries still poses a threat to the country. In the meantime, the SNB’s commitment to defend the EUR/CHF peg continues to keep franc rallies at bay.

JPY: Neutral

Kuroda’s speech turned out to be a huge disappointment as the new central bank head declined to divulge details on his monetary policy plans. He did mention that “bold quantitative and qualitative” measures will be put in place to ensure that Japan wards off deflation and the yen doesn’t appreciate too much. There are no major events in Japan this week, which suggests that the yen could trade on risk sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD): Neutral

Only Canada and Australia have economic events for this shortened trading week. Canada is set to print its CPI figures and possibly report a rebound in inflation. These CPI releases don’t really have a huge impact on USD/CAD but it could spark enough volatility for day trades. Meanwhile, RBA Governor Stevens is set to give a testimony tomorrow and probably emphasize that there is no need to ease monetary policy for Australia in the near term.

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Re: Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Postby katetrades » Tue Mar 26, 2013 7:20 am

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 26, 2013)

USD: Neutral

There are a few major reports due from the U.S. today and these might have an impact on dollar pairs’ price action since there are no other top-tier economic events scheduledThe U.S. durable goods orders data could show a 3.9% increase in the headline figure and a 0.7% uptick in the core figure. Take note that the previous month’s figures were already revised upwards, showing that manufacturing production has been stronger than initially estimated. In addition, the U.S. will also release the CB consumer confidence report and possibly show a drop from 69.6 to 67.9 for the current month. Lastly, existing home sales are expected to have dropped from 437K to 426K in February.

EUR: Bullish

Cyprus just announced an approved bailout deal yesterday yet the markets seemed underwhelmed from the proposal. The bailout deal basically involves shutting down Cyprus’ second largest bank in order to secured 10 billion EUR worth of bailout funds. What most market watchers weren’t too happy about was the prospect of having some deposits frozen and used to settle debts. This could lead to huge repercussions down the line as it is a stopgap fix to a broader problem, but it was good enough to guarantee additional liquidity for Cyprus.

GBP: Bearish

No major reports are due from the U.K. today as GBP/USD is currently testing a significant resistance level. Recall that the 1.5200 to 1.5250 strong support zone got breached in February when the BOE expressed willingness to implement further easing measures at the expense of stronger inflationary pressures. This pushed the pair to below the 1.4900 handle yet it was able to recover as good news from the U.K. started popping up. Without any reports this week though, pound traders might decide to book their profits off their GBP/USD long trades and trigger a quick selloff back to 1.5000.

CHF: Neutral

No reports due from Switzerland this week, leaving Swissy pairs to trade mostly on SNB intervention concerns and ongoing debt troubles in Cyprus. USD/CHF has found support at the .9400 major support level yet again and appears poised to test .9550. EUR/CHF, meanwhile, has been steadily climbing, yet it has consolidated around 1.4400 for today. Another upside breakout might be in the cards if franc selling pressure remains strong.

JPY: Neutral

New BOJ head Kuroda seems to be disappointing yen bears these days as his speeches fail to contain any details on aggressive easing strategies. Markets have built up high expectations for his dovish remarks as he is a known dove, along with his Deputy Governor. His latest speech simply reiterated the government’s goal of achieving the 2% inflation target for Japan, which left traders hanging. More details are expected when the BOJ actually convenes for their interest rate decision soon.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD): Neutral

RBA Governor Steven’s speech during today’s Asian session was mostly a non-event as AUD/USD continues to consolidate inside a tight rising wedge. There are no reports due from New Zealand and Canada for today, which suggests that consolidation could also be in the cards for NZD/USD and USD/CAD unless U.S. reports post a big surprise.

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