Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex

Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Analysis by Kate Curtis of Trader's Way . Kate Curtis updates the outlook and analysis daily in this sub-forum.
Image

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 30, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Tue Jul 30, 2013 6:51 am

USD

The US dollar regained ground against most of its major counterparts at the start of the week, as pending home sales printed a smaller than expected decline of 0.4%. Analysts expected a drop of 1.1%. The only major report due from the US today is the CB consumer confidence figure, which is slated to dip from 81.4 to 81.1. The US is also set to print its S&P/CS house price index and possibly show a 12.4% reading.

EUR

EUR/USD’s climb came to a halt as the pair consolidated below the 1.3300 major psychological level. There were no reports released from the euro zone yesterday, which explains the lack of direction for the pair. For today, there are a few medium-tier reports on tap and these are the German CPI, Spanish GDP, and euro zone retail PMI. Be mindful of stronger than expected data that could push EUR/USD higher or weaker than expected results that might trigger a pullback.

GBP

The pound erased some of its previous gains to the dollar in yesterday’s trading, as GBP/USD retreated to the 1.5300 area. CBI realized sales came in better than expected as it improved from 1 to 17, outpacing the consensus at 11, while mortgage approvals missed expectations. The report printed a 58K reading instead of the estimated 60K figure. For today, only the GfK consumer confidence and BRC shop price index are up for release and these aren’t likely to cause a huge impact on pound movement.

CHF

USD/CHF held steady below the .9300 handle in yesterday’s trading since the lack of top-tier catalysts from both the US and Switerland resulted in a range-bound environment. No reports are due from Switzerland again today, which suggests that this pair could be in for more consolidation.

JPY

Japanese data came in mixed, with an improvement in the jobs sector and a downturn in spending. Household spending slipped by 0.4% instead of bouncing back by 1.2% while the jobless rate dipped from 4.1% to 3.9%, better than the estimate of a 4.0% reading. Meanwhile, industrial production also missed the consensus and showed a 3.3% decline while the previous month’s figure was revised down to show a 1.9% drop. Manufacturing PMI and average cash earnings are due from Japan today and this could dictate the yen’s movement for the rest of the day.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The comdolls gave up some of their recent gains, as AUD/USD fell from the .9300 area while NZD/USD slipped to .8000. USD/CAD, however, was mostly stuck in consolidation. Australian building approvals were weak, as the figure showed a massive 6.9% decline. Similarly, New Zealand printed a weaker than expected building consents report. Inflation reports, such as RMPI and IPPI, are up for release from Canada today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
User avatar
katetrades
 
Posts: 2017
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:06 am

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 31, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Wed Jul 31, 2013 8:36 am

USD

The dollar bounced back to life in yesterday’s trading as it gained against most of its major counterparts. Data from the US hasn’t been exactly very strong, as the CB consumer confidence figure actually came in weaker than expected. Instead of dipping from 81.4 to just 81.1, the index fell to 80.3. The advanced GDP is up for release today and 1.1% growth is eyed for the second quarter of the year, lower than the previous quarter’s 1.8% reading. The FOMC statement is also scheduled during the later part of the US session, and the Fed might be able to set the record straight regarding their asset purchases.

EUR

Although euro zone figures came in mostly better than expected yesterday, the euro was no match to dollar strength as traders liquidated most of their positions ahead of the top-tier US data today. German GfK consumer climate improved from 6.8 to 7.0 while Spanish GDP came in line with consensus at -0.1%. German retail sales and jobs data are due today and this might have an impact on EUR/USD, but traders might stand pat ahead of the US events.

GBP

The pound lost ground to the dollar in yesterday’s trading, even if the GfK consumer confidence figure for the UK was stronger than estimated. The reading improved from -21 to -16, outpacing the consensus at -19. There are no major reports on tap from the UK today, leaving traders to take their cues from the major events in the US.

CHF

The lack of major reports from Switzerland left the franc powerless against the dollar in yesterday’s trading. Today, Switzerland will release its UBS consumption indicator and KOF economic barometer. Both of these reports could support the franc during the London session if they come in stronger than expected or show significant improvements.

JPY

The yen edged higher against its counterparts and managed to hold on to its current levels to the dollar. Data from Japan was mixed, as the jobs report was strong but spending and production disappointed, leaving the yen mostly directionless. The average cash earnings and housing starts data are due from Japan today, although both reports aren’t likely to cause huge waves for yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The comdoll gang was weighed down by the dollar in yesterday’s trading, as some traders took profits ahead of today’s key events. Weak building approvals in Australia and New Zealand dragged AUD/USD and NZD/USD lower, but the Loonie managed to stay more resilient as inflation reports from Canada came in strong. New Zealand reported an improvement in ANZ business confidence while Australia released an upbeat private sector credit data, which is providing support for their currencies at the moment.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
User avatar
katetrades
 
Posts: 2017
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:06 am

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 1, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Thu Aug 01, 2013 11:25 am

USD

The dollar had a topsy-turvy day, as the GDP report from the US came in stronger at 1.7% instead of the estimate at 1.1%. The FOMC statement, however, derailed the dollar from its rallies as it showed that policymakers were uneasy about weak inflation and rising mortgage costs. For now, they are still keeping close tabs on inflation and employment before deciding if they will indeed taper next month. ISM manufacturing PMI and jobless claims are up for release today, and traders could pay closer attention to the employment component of the ISM PMI.

EUR

The euro had a volatile day against the dollar, although euro zone data came mostly in line with expectations German CPI showed a 0.5% uptick while Spanish GDP printed a 0.1% contraction. The ECB statement is scheduled for today and more volatility is expected for EUR/USD. Although Draghi pretty much detailed their monetary plans for the foreseeable future, he could still rock the euro if he says something new or highlights the recent developments in the euro zone.

GBP

The pound is also in for a volatile day as the BOE interest rate decision is scheduled later today. BOC Governor Carney outlined his plans for the central bank and monetary policy already but he could have a few things to say on how the economy is doing, and this would be crucial in dictating pound movement.

CHF

USD/CHF price action has been very choppy lately, as the US events failed to give a clear direction for the Greenback. Data from Switzerland has been relatively okay, as the KOF economic barometer improved from 1.15 to 1.23 while the UBS consumption indicator was at 1.44, down from 1.45. Swiss banks are on a holiday today, which suggests quiet trading for franc pairs.

JPY

The yen consolidated against most of its counterparts as traders are still awaiting more clues from the market. There are no major reports released from Japan recently, which suggests yen pairs could stay stuck in consolidation for a while, unless country-specific events spark huge moves for some.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls were mostly stuck in consolidation, particularly for AUD/USD and USD/CAD. There were no major releases from their economies recently, although the Chinese official government PMI figures came in better than expected. The biggest movers for this pairs today could be the US ISM manufacturing PMI and jobless claims.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
User avatar
katetrades
 
Posts: 2017
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:06 am

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 2, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Fri Aug 02, 2013 7:20 am

USD

The US dollar continued its rallying ways across the charts, pushing USD/JPY above the 99.00 mark and EUR/USD down to the 1.3200 area. Data from the US has been upbeat, with both initial jobless claims and ISM manufacturing PMI coming in better than expected. The ISM figure improved from 50.9 to 55.4, its fastest climb since June 1996. The initial jobless claims report showed a 326K reading, lower than the estimate at 346K. For today, the NFP is up for release and could cause a lot of volatility among dollar pairs. A 186K figure is expected, slightly lower than the previous 195K reading but still enough to push the jobless rate down from 7.6% to 7.5%.

EUR

The euro slid lower against the dollar but managed to score some gains against the Japanese yen. The ECB statement turned out as markets expected, with no actual changes to monetary policy but Draghi highlighted some of the improvements in the euro zone economy. Only the Spanish jobs report is up for release from the euro zone today and it is expected to show that the economy added 80K jobs for the month. A higher than expected increase in hiring could lift the euro during the London session.

GBP

The pound weakened to the dollar but strengthened against the yen, as the BOE interest rate decision contained no surprises. BOE Governor Carney kept rates unchanged, as expected. Meanwhile the UK manufacturing PMI printed a strong result of 54.6, higher than the estimate at 52.8. Construction PMI is due from the UK today and it’s expected to rise from 51.0 to 51.6.

CHF

There were no reports from Switzerland as the country was on a holiday. With that, the franc fell victim to dollar strength, pushing USD/CHF out of its downtrend on the shorter-term time frame. For today, the SVME PMI is up for release and it’s expected to improve from 51.9 to 53.1, which could lift the franc against its counterparts.

JPY

The yen was no match to the strength of other major currencies as there were no major reports released from Japan yesterday. The calendar is still empty for today, which suggests that we could see more or less the same behavior from the yen, unless there’s a huge shift in market sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls struggled to stay resilient against the dollar in yesterday’s trading as upbeat Chinese official manufacturing PMI data helped lift the Australian dollar. For today, the NFP report could be one of the biggest movers for the comdoll gang. Australian PPI came in weaker than expected at 0.1% instead of the estimate at 0.5%, which suggests the RBA does have room to ease if needed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
User avatar
katetrades
 
Posts: 2017
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:06 am

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 6, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Tue Aug 06, 2013 9:38 am

USD

The US dollar lost ground to some of its counterparts in yesterday’s trading as risk sentiment seemed to improve and favor the higher-yielding currencies. As for economic data, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI report came in stronger than expected as the reading climbed from 52.2 to 56.0, outpacing the consensus at 53.2. Only the trade balance is up for release today and the deficit is projected to narrow from 45 billion USD to 43.1 billion USD.

EUR

The euro was able to hold on to its recent gains against the dollar, as EUR/USD continued to trade close to the 1.3300 major psychological resistance. Data from the euro zone was mixed as the Spanish and Italian PMIs came close to expectations while the region-wide Sentix investor confidence report fell short. The actual reading improved from -12.6 to -4.9, lower than the estimate at 9.8. No major reports are due from the euro zone today, as the only releases are the Italian industrial production and German factory orders.

GBP

The British pound had a stellar performance yesterday as Cable inched close to the 1.5400 major psychological level. UK services PMI came in much higher than expected as it jumped from 56.9 to 60.2, higher than the estimate at 57.4. The manufacturing production is up for release today and it is expected to show a 0.9% rebound from the 0.8% decline seen last time.

CHF

There are no major releases from Switzerland recently, leaving USD/CHF sensitive to US data. The pair was able to rally past the .9300 handle in yesterday’s trading but ended up erasing most of its gains anyway. Consolidation could be the name of the game for USD/CHF today as the medium-tier US trade balance release isn’t expected to cause a lasting reaction.

JPY

The yen continued to edge higher against most of its counterparts, although longer-term time frames still point at consolidation. There were no major reports released from Japan recently but the low-tier leading indicators release printed a weaker than expected reading of 107%.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The bloodbath continued for the comdoll gang, as the Kiwi and Loonie underperformed. For the Kiwi, news of Fonterra’s product recall continued to add selling pressure while the Loonie was unable to draw buying power as Canadian banks were on a holiday. The RBA decided to cut interest rates by 0.25% in their rate statement today and surprisingly triggered a positive reaction from AUD. According to their statement, the RBA is concerned about global and domestic economic performance and analysts are pricing in another rate cut for the year.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way.
User avatar
katetrades
 
Posts: 2017
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:06 am

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 8, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Thu Aug 08, 2013 9:43 am

USD
The U.S. dollar weakened against most of its counterparts in yesterday’s trading, as risk appetite continued to stay in the markets. EUR/USD climbed above the 1.3300 handle while GBP/USD reached 1.5500. There were no major reports released from the US then, which explains why the currency was unable to draw any support. For today, the jobless claims data could renew demand for the dollar as the report is slated to show 336K in first-time unemployment claimants for the previous week.

EUR
The euro was able to hold on to most of its recent gains, as the German industrial production report printed stronger than expected results. The actual figure showed an increase of 2.4%, higher than the estimate of a 0.3% uptick and the previous month’s 0.8% decline. German trade balance and the ECB monthly bulletin are due from the euro zone today.

GBP
Pound trading was much more volatile yesterday as the BOE’s inflation report rocked the pound pairs. At first, the pound underwent heavy selling when BOE Governor Carney said that the interest rate will be tied to the jobless rate, which they want to see to drop to 7% before tightening. In addition, they specified that inflation and financial stability will also have a say in monetary policy adjustments. However, the pound was able to recover when the central bank upgraded their growth forecasts for this year and next year. No reports are due from the UK today.

CHF
Switzerland printed weaker than expected data yet the franc was still able to outpace most of its counterparts. The SECO consumer climate figure came in at -9 instead of improving from -5 to -2 while the CPI report showed a 0.4% decline in price levels, worse than the estimated 0.1% downtick. The Swiss jobless rate is due today and it’s expected to stay at 5.2%.

JPY
The yen continued to pack its gains against its counterparts in yesterday’s trading, although traders took profits prior to today’s BOJ interest rate statement. No monetary policy changes are expected but the policymakers might highlight the recent improvements in the Japanese economy and suggest that they could reduce stimulus, which could be positive for the yen.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to recover against the Greenback during the US session, although the Loonie saw some weakness when Canada printed bleak figures. The Ivey PMI fell short of expectations and came in at 48.4 instead of climbing from 55.3 to 56.3. The building permits was also significantly weaker than expected at a 10.3% decline, worse than the estimate of a 2.5% drop. Australian jobs data was mixed, with the jobless rate holding steady at 5.7% and the employment change weaker than expected at -10.2K. Chinese trade balance is up for release within the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way.
User avatar
katetrades
 
Posts: 2017
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:06 am

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 12, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Mon Aug 12, 2013 8:20 am

USD
The dollar bounced back to action against some of its counterparts on Friday, as traders booked profits off their short trades ahead of the weekend. There were no major reports released from the US then, but the wholesale inventories release which turned out stronger than expected may have also lifted the Greenback. For today, only the Federal budget balance is up for release from the US and this isn’t likely to cause huge waves among dollar pairs, unless there are significant surprises.

EUR
EUR/USD retreated after reaching the 1.3400 major psychological level on Friday, but the pair could be ready to resume its climb this week. Weaker than expected data from France and Italy were responsible for the euro’s slide that day, although traders remain optimistic that the improvements in Germany could still provide support for the entire region. There are no reports due from the euro zone today though.

GBP
The pound was stuck in consolidation last Friday, even though the UK trade balance came in better than expected. The deficit stood at 8.1 billion GBP, smaller than the estimated 8.4 billion GBP shortfall and the previous 8.7 billion GBP deficit. There are no reports due from the UK today, which suggests that further consolidation could be in the cards.

CHF
The franc was able to hold on to its recent gains against the US dollar last week. There were no reports released from Switzerland on Friday yet the pair was able to take advantage of risk appetite and dollar weakness. Swiss retail sales are up for release today and an improvement from 1.8% to 1.9% is eyed. If the actual figure comes in strong, the franc could be in for more gains.

JPY
Japan printed weaker than expected consumer confidence last week, as the figure dipped from 44.3 to 43.6 instead of improving to 45.3. This reveals that not all Japanese citizens are confident that the economy is seeing improvements, in contrast to what government officials and BOJ policymakers believe. Earlier today, Japan’s preliminary GDP figure fell short of consensus as it printed 0.6% growth, lower than the estimate at 0.9%. Revised industrial production and preliminary machine tool orders data are due later today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls continued to flex their muscles on Friday, as AUD/USD climbed to the .9200 mark while NZD/USD kept inching higher. What’s surprising though is that Chinese CPI came in weaker than expected at 2.7% instead of the 2.8% estimate while Canada’s jobs data fell short of consensus. Hiring fell by 39.4K in July instead of rising by 6.2K, bringing the unemployment rate up from 7.1% to 7.2%. There are no reports due from these economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way.
User avatar
katetrades
 
Posts: 2017
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:06 am

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 13, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:19 am

USD
The US dollar started the week on a strong note, despite the Federal budget balance release which confirmed that the government surplus of more than 100 billion USD has turned into a deficit of nearly 100 billion USD. There were no other reports released from the US yesterday, as traders gear up for the release of US retail sales figures today. Stronger increases are eyed for July, although the possibility of a downside surprise is on the table since the July jobs figures missed expectations.

EUR
The euro came under selling pressure again yesterday as news that Greece would need another round of bailout funds hit the airwaves. With that, traders seemed to ignore the better than expected GDP reading of Greece, which showed that the nation contracted by only 4.6% for the second quarter instead of the estimated 4.9% drop in growth. For today, German ZEW figures are on tap and it is likely it that it will show an improvement from 36.3 to 40.3 in August. Euro zone industrial production data and ZEW economic expectations figures are also due today.

GBP
The pound was no match to dollar strength on Monday, as GBP/USD broke below the 1.5500 major psychological level and dipped to 1.5450. There were no economic reports released from the UK yesterday and today has the CPI figures on tap. The CPI is expected to be at 2.8%, a notch lower than the previous 2.9% reading. However, stronger than expected readings might be positive for the pound as it could convince the BOE to scale back on its stimulus efforts.

CHF
The Swiss retail sales figure beat expectations of a 1.9% increase and came in at 2.3%. This was also better than the previous reading of 1.8%. However, the franc still gave way to dollar strength in yesterday’s trading as USD/CHF pulled up a few pips close to the .9300 handle. There are no reports from Switzerland today so watch out for the US retail sales release if you’re trading USD/CHF.

JPY
The yen was outpaced by most of its counterparts in yesterday’s trading as Japan’s GDP report printed a weaker than expected reading of 0.6% instead of the estimated 0.9% growth. Earlier today, core machinery orders showed a smaller than expected decrease of 2.7% compared to the estimate of a 7.1% decline. No other reports are due from Japan today so yen pairs might be affected by fundamentals or risk sentiment mostly.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
There were no major releases from the comdolls in yesterday’s trading, although some retreated from their recent rallies. AUD/USD was unable to make any headway past the .9200 handle as it dropped back down to the .9100 area while USDCAD held steady around 1.0300. There are no major releases from Australia and Canada but New Zealand is set to print its quarterly retail sales figures in the next Asian session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way.
User avatar
katetrades
 
Posts: 2017
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:06 am

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 14, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:15 am

USD
The Greenback enjoyed stellar gains in yesterday’s trading, as the US retail sales report came in better than expected. In particular, the core version of the report showed a 0.5% uptick, which is better than the estimate of a 0.4% increase, while the headline figure came in at 0.2% as expected. On top of that, the June figures enjoyed significant upward revisions, enough to convince most traders that the Fed will push through with its plans to reduce bond purchases in September. PPI figures are on tap today and these could be treated as clues on how the CPI data will turn out. Stay tuned for FOMC voting member Bullard’s speech as well.

EUR
The euro lost ground to the dollar in yesterday’s trading but managed to score some gains against the yen. German ZEW economic sentiment came in better than expected while the euro zone ZEW also beat expectations. However, euro zone industrial production fell short of consensus as the actual figure showed a 0.6% increase instead of the estimated 1.1% growth. For today, the euro could be in for strong moves as the GDP figures are up for release. Indications that the region could be out of the long recession could trigger a strong rally as early as the release of the French and German GDP around the start of the London session.

GBP
The pound posted strong gains against the yen and managed to hold on to its current levels against the dollar, as the UK printed CPI that was in line with expectations of a 2.8% increase. This means that inflation is still way above the central bank’s 2% target and that this might lead them to think about dialing back their stimulus sooner rather than later. Claimant count change is up for release today and another decline in joblessness is projected.

CHF
The franc gave way to dollar strength in yesterday’s trading as there were no major releases from Switzerland. Swiss PPI is up for release today and a 0.4% uptick in producer prices could be printed, which might be positive for the franc. On the other hand, lower than expected producer price inflation could worsen the ongoing franc selloff.

JPY
The yen lost a lot of ground in yesterday’s trading, brought in part by economic improvements in its currency counterparts. What really triggered the strong selloff though was a news report that revealed Abe is considering reducing corporate taxes in order to make up for the increase in consumption tax. He hopes to spur consumer spending and also encourage foreign investment in the process, leading to a strong Nikkei rally and a yen selloff. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
There were no major reports released from Australia and Canada, as New Zealand was the only comdoll economy with data. The quarterly retail sales release came in stronger than expected as the headline figure showed a 1.7% increase while the core version of the report printed a 2.3% jump. There are no other reports due from the comdolls today so watch out for commodity price behavior and market sentiment to dictate price action.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way.
User avatar
katetrades
 
Posts: 2017
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:06 am

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 15, 2013)

Postby katetrades » Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:06 am

USD
The dollar weakened yet again in yesterday’s trading as the PPI reports turned out to be a disappointment while Bullard’s speech cautioned against easing too soon. This throws water at the Fed’s Septaper plans, considering how Bullard is a voting member of the FOMC. For today, CPI figures are up for release and it might be disappointing as well. Also due today are the initial jobless claims and a couple of manufacturing indices, which are likely to show improvements. However, weaker than expected data could continue to undermine the dollar’s performance for the rest of the week.

EUR
The euro zone is officially out of the recession, as seen from the GDP figures which printed growth of 0.3% versus the estimated 0.2%. However, this wasn’t good enough for the euro as the currency didn’t rally at all after the release. Instead, it even lost ground as some traders thought that the figures were not good enough. For today, banks in the euro zone are on a holiday so there might not be enough liquidity in the euro session.

GBP
The UK printed better than expected jobs data, as claimants dropped by nearly 30K again. This was enough to keep the jobless rate steady at 7.8%. For today, retail sales are up for release and a higher than expected growth of 0.7% is eyed compared to the previous 0.2% uptick. Another strong figure could lift the pound higher, possibly above 1.5600 against the dollar.

CHF
The franc lost ground to the dollar yet again even though Switzerland printed an improvement in its ZEW expectations report. This was probably because Swiss PPI came in weaker than expected as it printed a flat reading. No other reports are due from Switzerland for the rest of the day.

JPY
The yen continued showing signs of weakness as it lost appeal among traders. After all, Abe is going to impose a tax hike, and this could take its toll on consumer spending and businesses. There are no reports due from Japan today so the yen might take its cue from Japanese equities.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)
The comdolls were able to take advantage of dollar weakness in yesterday’s trading, as AUD/USD retested .9200 and NZD/USD landed back above .8000. There were no major reports, except for the New Zealand retail sales and the improvement in Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence figure. No other reports are due from the comdolls for the rest of the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way.
User avatar
katetrades
 
Posts: 2017
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:06 am

PreviousNext

Return to Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis (Trader's Way)

 

Who is online on Forum

Registered users: Baidu [Spider], Bing [Bot], Google [Bot], Yahoo [Bot]

cron