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FXDailyDose – November 13, 2013

November 13, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments – Overall Outlook
USD/JPY bullish USD/JPY broke over 99.67 resistance and went as high as 99.80 before experiencing the psychological pressure of 100.00. The resistance took it down to 99.42. If support comes in the range of 99.20/99.25 then a retest of 99.80 is expected. A break above 99.80 should bring further gains towards 100.20. Our outlook stays bullish for the near-term based on the bullish signal from daily ichimoku, the break of 200-day moving average and also the break of the 6 month old trend line resistance. Please check the previous updates as well as this USD/JPY chart alert for the details. However if resistance at 99.80 holds and the support of 99.20/99.25 fails then further consolidation towards 98.80 support will be expected.
EUR/USD Neutral For last 2 days we had been mentioning about the possibilities that EUR/USD may have some upward correction towards 1.3438 to 1.3449. The price moved up that way and even broke above this resistance to touch 1.3456 (7 pips more). We stay neutral initially. Further consolidation towards 1.3488 cannot be ruled out but overall outlook stays bearish for the near-term. If resistance near 1.3488 holds and a break below 1.3341 takes place then drop towards 1.3265 support will be expected.
USD/CAD bullish Our outlook for USD/CAD becomes mildly bullish for the short-term. Though the price has still not been able to sustain above the psychological level of 1.0500 but the subsequent highs are getting higher. the first was 1.0497, the next attempt touched 1.0503 and the third 1.0508. We expect further gains towards 1.0540/1.0545 if support at 1.0463 holds. Please note that 1.0463 had proved to be a resistance and then it turned into support two days back. Any break below 1.0463 should find a support and recovery from 1.0440. This mildly bullish outlook will be neutralized if any break below 1.0398 takes place.
CAD/JPY bullish On one hand a double top is in place on weekly chart but on the other hand CAD/JPY has been continuously finding support over 92.17. Four attempts to break below have failed during past four and a half months. However, on the upside, during part one and a half months, the pair has failed 3 times near the 200-day moving average resistance. The current 200-day moving average is at 95.51 which is 72 pips above the current price. Though we stay neutral initially but overall we are mildly bullish. The first resistance expected is at 95.22 and then the 200-day SMA. A break above these resistances should bring further gains towards 96.80. This outlook will start neutralizing if the expected support in the range of 94.23 to 94.41 fails.
GBP/USD Bearish The near-term outlook had turned bearish for GBP/USD, with the recent break of the support after the resistance of 4 year old trend line held firm. Please check the chart for this break at this GBP/USD alert. Some support should come near the recent 1.5854 but below that we will expect further drop towards 1.5740 or more. Intraday resistance is expected below 1.5965.
EUR/GBP Bearish Our overall outlook remains bearish for EUR/GBP but initially we stay neutral. Yesterday we had indicated the possibilities for upward moves towards the resistance zone of 0.8416 to 0.8440. The prices moved that way and then went as high as 0.8463. We expect a resistance at 0.8477 and a fall with that but any failure of that resistance may bring some further upward consolidation. On the downside the first support should come at or above 0.8396.
EUR/AUD Neutral Yesterday we had indicated about the possibilities that EUR/AUD might move upward to 1.4385. The upward move came and the pair even moved as high as 1.4484. the pair has been failing to sustain above the psychological 1.0450 for over 2 months and hence the current price is in a strong resistance zone. overall we expect a break above this resistance soon. Though initially we stay neutral but the neat-term outlook has turned mildly bullish. The bullish outlook will get further confirmation if a break above 1.4560 takes place. Such a break should result into a jump towards 1.4720 or more.
USD/INR Neutral Yesterday we had mentioned resistance is the range of 64.20 to 64.45. The resistance came 3 pips below the range at 64.17. Further upward moves may take place as long as support holds over 63.05. A break below 63.05 would be the first indication of a possible near-term topping and such a move should bring further decline towards 62.30 or more. We are staying neutral for USD/INR. Overall we expect some extended sideways moves between 60.40 and 64.60 in the near future.

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FX Daily Dose – November 12, 2013

November 12, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments – Overall Outlook
USD/JPY bullish USD/JPY has not yet broken over 99.67 resistance which we have been mentioning for past couple of days. However there is a break of the trend line resistance which has been in place for almost 6 months. Apart from that the medium strength bullish signal from daily Ichimoku cloud and break of 200-day moving average which we had mentioned yesterday, all indicate that some further upward gains can be expected. Still it is better to wait for a break over 99.67. In case this resistance fails then the next resistance will be expected near 100.20.
EUR/USD Neutral Yesterday we had mentioned the possibilities that EUR/USD may have some upward correction towards 1.3438 to 1.3449 resistance. The prices moved up to 1.3416. Our outlook says same as yesterday that if there is no failure of this resistance then further drop towards 1.3265 support is expected. If 200-day moving average support fails and a break below 1.3230 takes place then some further drop towards 1.3230 i.e. 55-week EMA should come. However any break above 1.3450 may take EUR/USD to test 1.3500. We are staying neutral initially but overall outlook is bearish.
USD/CAD Neutral Our outlook for USD/CAD remains same as yesterday. The pair is struggling with the psychological resistance of 1.0500 and is practically stuck between 1.0400 and 1.0400. The recent slight break above 1.0500 had found resistance just 3 pips above and the previous slight break below 1.0400 had found support just 2 pips below it. We stay neutral till a break on either side i.e. above 1.0503 or 1.0398 does not take place. Above 1.0503 USD/CAD will be expected to target 1.0545 and below 1.0398 it should target the support zone of 1.0320 to 1.0360. Possibilities of an upward break are higher if the support near 1.0430 holds.
CAD/JPY bullish On one hand a double top is in place on weekly chart but on the other hand CAD/JPY has been continuously finding support over 92.17. Four attempts to break below have failed during past four and a half months. Today we expect some more gains towards the resistance in the range of 95.45 to 95.60.
GBP/USD Neutral Our outlook for GBP/USD stays same as what we had mentioned in yesterday’s update. We now expect a resistance in the range of 1.6031 to 1.6040. If this resistance holds then any break below 1.5957 should bring further fall towards 1.5905 to 1.5894 support zone. The support at 1.5894 is critical and any break below that should bring deeper consolidations towards 1.5740 or more. Overall till any break above 1.6120 does not take place, we will remain in favor of a deeper consolidation.
EUR/GBP Bearish Our outlook remains bearish for EUR/GBP but initially we expect some more upward consolidation after the pair has broken over 0.8362 resistance. Further upward gains towards the resistance zone of 0.8416 to 0.8440 should take place. Even if this resistance fails, we will expect a deeper fall towards 0.8225 from the resistance below 0.8480.
EUR/AUD Neutral EUR/AUD’s fall after the interest rate decision of ECB was arrested by the dual support of 200-day moving average as well as the psychological support of 1.4000 ranges. however the pair has been failing to sustain above the psychological 1.0450 for over 2 months. This suggests that sooner or later we may seen a deeper consolidation if the support of 1.4000 fails. However today we expect some more gains but a strong resistance near 1.4385.
USD/INR Neutral Our outlook for USD/INR stays same as the pair is continuously facing resistance below the resistance zone we have been mentioning for past three days. The pair has moved up to 63.60 and is now in the resistance zone of 63.57 to 63.65 which we had mentioned 2 days back. Our immediate outlook for USD/INR stays neutral for any further gains till there is no break above 63.65. If this resistance fails then some more gains towards the resistance zone of 64.20 to 64.45 will be expected. The psychological pressure of 65.00 should start there. If the resistance continues then a drop towards 62.70 will be expected. Please also note that 63.97 is the 38.2% retracement of USD/INR’s fall from 69.52 to 60.54 and that makes the current resistance zone even stronger.

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FX Daily Dose – November 11, 2013

November 11, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments
USD/JPY Neutral USD/JPY continues to find resistance below the resistance of 99.67 which we have been indicating in the previous updates of FXDailyDose. There has been an effort to break the resistance trend line which has been in place since May 2013, though the price could not sustain. There was also a medium strength bullish signal by the daily Ichimoku cloud and the price also broke above 200-day moving average after 3 failures. All these facts indicate the possibilities for further gains but we stay neutral for upside till any break above 99.67 does not take place. Today support should hold in the range of 98.50 to 98.80. A failure of this support may bring further downward move towards 98.20. An upward jump will be expected from there.
EUR/USD Bearish Some upward consolidation may take place towards the resistance of 1.3438 to 1.3449 resistance zone initially. If there is no failure of this resistance then further drop towards 1.3265 support is expected. If 200-day moving average support fails and a break below 1.3230 takes place then some further drop towards 1.3230 i.e. 55-week EMA should come. We are staying neutral initially but overall outlook is bearish.
USD/CAD Neutral USD/CAD found support 8 pips above the support of 1.0440 mentioned by us during the last update. The upward jump tried to break the indicated resistance of 1.0495 but immediate resistance came just 8 pips above it i.e. 1.0503. It is evident that the psychological resistance of 1.0503 is in place. Even if this resistance fails then a very strong resistance will be expected near 1.0545. In case the resistance below 1.0503 continues then a drop towards 1.0430 may take place. The crucial support still is at 1.0398 and in case the support of 1.0398 fails then a downward move towards the support zone of 1.0320 to 1.0360 will be expected. We stay neutral.
AUD/JPY Neutral AUD/JPY has lost the upward momentum and has gone into sideways mode. The short-term outlook stays neutral. In case there is a break of 92.34 support then further drop towards 91.55/91.65 support can not be ignored. I the support over 93.34 continues then a retest of 94.00/94.20 resistance can be expected.
GBP/USD Neutral GBP/USD continues to be below 1.6120 resistance as we have been mentioning in the previous updates. Our outlook stays same though the price action is clearly indicating the bearish is now increasing. To quote the previous outlook again – “If this resistance holds then a drop towards 1.5894 to 1.5905 is expected. However if there is a decisive break over 1.6120 then further gains towards 1.6180 will be expected. The support at 1.5894 is critical and any break below that should bring deeper consolidations towards 1.5740 or more.”.
EUR/GBP Bearish Our outlook remains bearish for EUR/GBP. If resistance holds below 0.8362 then another decisive break below 0.8323 should bring deeper decline towards 0.8225 or more. The short-term bearish outlook will neutralize with any decisive break over the expected support of 0.8385. Any break above 0.8362 may bring some further consolidation towards 0.8410.
EUR/AUD Neutral As we had mentioned during the previous update that EUR/AUD’s sudden fall after the interest rate cut decision of European Central Bank had tried to break below 200-day moving average support but the break did not sustain. That indicates that the 200-day moving average support is working. On the other hand the pair is now finding resistance below the 22-day EMA and has entered a sideways range below 1.4289. We stay neutral initially because even though the bearish pressure is clearly more but the recent support at 1.0450 did not only represent the 200-day moving average support but also the psychological support of 1.4000. EUR/AUD is clearly stuck between the psychological levels of 1.4000 and 1.4500. Even is there is any break above the current range a stronger resistance will be expected near 1.4380 and with that , in the coming days, we expect a drop towards 1.3960.
USD/INR bullish During last update we had indicated the possibilities of a move towards 63.57 to 63.65 resistance zone. USD/INR had moved up to 63.49 and resistance is being experienced in the resistance zone indicated by us. Our immediate outlook for USD/INR stays neutral for any further gains till there is no break above 63.65. If this resistance continues then a drop towards 62.70 will be expected.

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FX Daily Dose – November 8, 2013

November 8, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments
USD/JPY Neutral USD/JPY had a sudden jump after ECB’s unexpected interest rate cut. The pair broke above the 200-day moving average by touching 99.41. The resistance was faced in the range of 99.38 to 99.67 exactly as we had mentioned in the previous FXDailyDose. The fall after this strong jump was equally strong. We still expect support over 97.55. If this support fails then a strong support should come at 97.20. However, considering the recent non-directional volatile move, we stay neutral.
EUR/USD Bearish EUR/USD broke the indicated support of 1.3560/1.3580 and then not only fell to the indicated 1.3340 to 1.3389 support zone but went as low as 1.3294 before recovering to some extent. This strong fall is attributed to ECB’s unexpected interest rate cut to 0.25%. The immediate outlook stays neutral but overall we stay bearish. Resistance is expected below 1.3465 and with that further fall 1.3260 or more should come.
USD/CAD Neutral We have been mentioning resistance below 1.0495 and support at or over 1.0398. USD/CAD found support as indicated just over 1.0398. The recovery from 1.0405 took it to 1.0463 and lost momentum ahead of 1.0495. We can see some more upward gains if support holds near 1.0440 but our outlook for USD/CAD remains same as what we had mentioned in yesterday. Current price action is finding support just over 22-day EMA. We will repeat what we mentioned yesterday that in case the support of 1.0398 fails then a downward move towards the support zone of 1.0320 to 1.0360 will be expected. We stay neutral.
AUD/JPY Neutral AUD/JPY could not break the resistance of 94.20 which we had mentioned yesterday and fell sharply from 94.09. The pair broke below the indicated support of 92.66 to touch 92.34 before recovering slightly to 92.90. Some more downward moves can be seen today but we stay neutral initially to expect a support near 92.00.
GBP/USD Neutral GBP/USD continues to find resistance below 1.6120 as we have been mentioning for past 2 days. Our outlook stays same. To quote it again “If this resistance holds then a drop towards 1.5894 to 1.5905 is expected. However if there is a decisive break over 1.6120 then further gains towards 1.6180 will be expected. The support at 1.5894 is critical and any break below that should bring deeper consolidations towards 1.5740 or more.”
EUR/GBP Bearish We had indicated resistance in the range of 0.8444 to 0.8451 but resistance was face below that at 0.8412. Then as indicated the pair fell sharply and broke the support of 0.8332 to touch 0.8300 before recovering to 0.8335. Our outlook remains bearish for EUR/GBP. Another decisive break below 0.8332 should bring deeper decline towards 0.8225 or more. The short-term bearish outlook will neutralize with any decisive break over the expected support of 0.8385.
EUR/AUD Neutral EUR/AUD fell sharply with ECB’s rate cut decision. The pair tried to break below the support of 200-day EMA but found support just below it and recovered from 1.4050 to 1.4166. Though the short-term outlook has become bearish but initially a neutral approach is required because of the support observed just below the 200-day moving average and also the psychological support of 1.4000 ranges. Another break below 1.4124 support should bring deeper declines to retest 1.4050 or even towards 1.4000.
USD/INR bullish Yesterday we had indicated that USD/INR should move up further. The pair moved that way to 62.70. The current price action is just below the indicated resistance of 62.94 and initially we stay neutral. If there is a break above 62.94 then then further upward moves towards the resistance zone of 63.57 to 63.65 should take place.

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FX Daily Dose – November 7, 2013

November 7, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments
USD/JPY bullish USD/JPY again broke above the daily Ichimoku cloud but is still struggling below the 200-day moving average. Our views remain exactly same as what we had mentioned in the previous FXDailyDose of yesterday.
EUR/USD Bearish EUR/USD broke below the first resistance of 1.3524 which we had mentioned yesterday and touched 1.3547. We had indicated that if a break over 1.3524 takes place then a move towards 1.3565 can be expected. The current price action is finding a resistance at 55-day EMA. We still expect a drop but if there is a decisive break above 1.3560/1.3580 range then the short-term outlook will change from bearish to neutral. If resistance holds in the range of 1.3560/1.3580 then further fall will be expected towards 1.3340 to 1.3389 support zone.
USD/CAD Neutral Our outlook for USD/CAD remains same as what we had mentioned in yesterday’s FxDailyDose. The pair found resistance below the indicated 1.0495 and dropped from 1.0461. Current price action is finding support just over 22-day EMA. We will repeat what we mentioned yesterday that in case the support of 1.0398 fails then a downward move towards the support zone of 1.0320 to 1.0360 will be expected. We stay neutral.
AUD/JPY bullish AUD/JPY inched higher to 94.16. Our outlook stays same as yesterday. A break over 94.20 resistance should take it towards 94.60 to 94.85 resistance zone. The psychological pressure of 95.00 may bring some fall but as long as the support over 92.66 holds we expect a break over 95.00 sooner or later. Please check this AUD/JPY alert. The support at 92.66 is critical for this outlook. Any break below 92.66 may bring further fall towards the support zone of 91.40 to 91.80.
GBP/USD Neutral GBP/USD found resistance below 1.6120 as we had mentioned in yesterday’s update of FXDailyDose. Our outlook remains same that if this resistance holds then a drop towards 1.5894 to 1.5905 is expected. However if there is a decisive break over 1.6120 then further gains towards 1.6180 will be expected. The support at 1.5894 is critical and any break below that should bring deeper consolidations towards 1.5740 or more.
EUR/GBP Bearish Some more consolidation may come but resistance is expected in the range of 0.8444 to 0.8451. Our outlook remains bearish for EUR/GBP. If the mentioned resistance holds and if there is a break below 0.8374 then a retest of 0.8332 support will be expected. 0.8332 support is very critical and in case that does not hold then deeper decline towards 0.8225 or more may come.
EUR/AUD Neutral EUR/AUD should find support over 1.4124. This is not only the previous support zone but the price action is above 200-day moving average support. The current 200-day moving average is at 1.4077. In case there is a break below 1.4124 then a move towards 1.4077 may take place, however, we remain neutral.
USD/INR bullish Some more upward gains are expected but resistance should be faced at 62.94. If this resistance breaks then further gains towards the resistance zone of 63.57 to 63.65 should come.

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FX Daily Dose – November 6, 2013

November 6, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments
USD/JPY bullish USD/JPY has again found resistance by 200-day moving average. The recent low did not test the previous low and a head and shoulder pattern seems to be forming on daily chart. Support is expected at or over 97.80 and if that holds then a break of 200-day moving average resistance is expected. Such a move should bring further gains towards 99.38 to 99.67 resistance zone. Do check the USD/JPY chart alert.
EUR/USD Bearish 1.3461 was the low of recent sideways move and hence a support level from where the pair had jumped to 1.3803. The recent break of 55-day EMA and this support has brought short-term bearish outlook. If resistance below 1.3524 holds then further consolidation may come towards 1.3340 to 1.3389 support zone. A break above 1.3524 may bring some more gains towards 1.3565.
USD/CAD Neutral USD/CAD is in a volatile sideways mode on daily chart. The weekly chart still has uptrend but the momentum is losing. Resistance near 1.0495 is critical. If this resistance holds and any break below 1.0398 support takes place then further drop towards 1.0320 to 1.0360 support zone can be expected.
AUD/JPY bullish The pair has been continuously finding support at 55-day EMA. This support combined with the fact that AUD/JPY had completed the 61.8% retracement of the strong upward gains from 74.47 to 105.43 indicate that we can see some further gains in the coming days. Please check this AUD/JPY alert. The support at 92.66 is critical for this outlook. Any break below 92.66 may bring further fall towards the support zone of 91.40 to 91.80.
GBP/USD Neutral We expect resistance near 1.6120 and if that resistance holds then we will expect GBP/USD to fall towards 1.5894 to 1.5905 support zone. The support at 1.5894 is critical and any break below that should bring deeper consolidations towards 1.5740 or more.
EUR/GBP Bearish EUR/GBP had failed just below 61.8% retracement of the fall from 0.8769 to 0.8332. Further downward move towards the first support in the range of 0.8374 to 0.8378 is expected. If this support fails then a retest of 0.8332 support will be expected. 0.8332 support is very critical and in case that does not hold then deeper decline towards 0.8225 or more may come.

 

USD/CAD Outlook – 2012/10/03

October 2, 2012 in Forex Analysis

USD/CAD’s Broke Over The Resistance After 12 Weeks

 

USD/CAD had broken over the Tenkan line resistance level after over 12 weeks. Well, an important resistance break after 12 weeks need some attention.

Please check the weekly chart of USD/CAD with Ichimoku cloud:

 

USD/CAD weekly chart - October 3 2012

Let’s have a look on the trend lines also on weekly chart of USD/CAD:

USD/CAD trend liens on weekly chart

And now a glance on the Fibonacci setup on the weekly chart:

USD/CAD 38.2% retracement

USD/CAD Outlook:

 

The break of Tenkan line resistance after such a long time comes as an indication that we should expect some further upward consolidation. Please note that after the break the currency pair had managed to have the weekly closing above that resistance and the price action in the subsequent week i.e. the current one has also been above that level. Moreover the downward move had found the support just over the previous resistance level of Tenkan line and that suggests that the old resistance may have now turned into the support level. Please check the current and previous candles on the first chart of USD/CAD above.

Now if we consider a possible 38.2% retracement then with a break over 98.60, the next move may be towards 99.50. This level would also represent a very strong resistance zone during whole of August. The currency pair had keep hesitating near and below this level and after a sideways move near 99.50, USD/CAD had fallen again sharply.

In case the US  Dollar – Canadian Dollar pair manages a decisive break over the said 99.50/99.60 level and sustains above that for at least a week or so then the next move could be a break over the parity i.e. 1.0000. Please check the Ichimoku cloud chart which shows the next resistance level near 1.0020 where the resistance of the lower edge of a very thin cloud would come into the picture.

The above Outlook would stand good if USD/CAD keeps on finding support at or over 0.9768.

Read about Ichimoku cloud .