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U.S. Census Bureau – Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders Report

December 5, 2012 in U.S.

By: U.S. Census Bureau [December 5th, 2012]

Summary:

October 2012 new orders for manufactured durable goods increased 0.8 percent, to $477.6 billion. Shipments rose 0.4 percent, to $482.3 billion. Unfilled orders increased 0.3 percent, to $982.9 billion. And inventories rose 0.1 percent, to $616.0 billion.

New orders for manufactured goods in October, up three of the last four months, increased $3.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $477.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 4.5 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3 percent. Shipments, up three of the last four months, increased $1.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $482.3 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent September increase. Unfilled orders, up four of the last five months, increased $2.8 billion or 0.3 percent to $982.9 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent September increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.25, up from 6.24 in September. Inventories, up four consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent to $616.0 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.6 percent September increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.28, unchanged from September.

New Orders:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, up five of the last six months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $217.9 billion, revised from the previously published slight increase. This followed a 9.1 percent September increase. Machinery, up two consecutive months, had the largest increase, $1.4 billion or 4.6 percent to $31.3 billion. New orders for manufactured non durable goods increased $2.7 billion or 1.1 percent to $259.7 billion.

Shipments:

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October, down two of the last three months, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $222.7 billion, revised from the previously published 0.6 percent decrease. This followed a 0.5 percent September increase. Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, had the largest decrease, $0.6 billion or 1.0 percent to $63.8 billion. Shipments of manufactured non-durable goods, up four consecutive months, increased $2.7 billion or 1.1 percent to $259.7 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent September increase. Petroleum and coal products, also up four consecutive months, led the increase, up $1.5 billion or 1.9 percent to $78.8 billion.

Unfilled Orders:

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in October, up four of the last five months, increased $2.8 billion or 0.3 percent to $982.9 billion, revised from the previously published 0.2 percent increase. This followed a 0.1 percent September increase. Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $3.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $576.9 billion.

Inventories:

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in October, up thirty-three of the last thirty-four months, increased $1.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $374.5 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis and followed a 0.2 percent September increase. Transportation equipment, also up thirty-three of the last thirty-four months, had the largest increase, $1.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $113.8 billion. Inventories of manufactured non-durable goods, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $1.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $241.5 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent September increase. Petroleum and coal products, also down following three consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, down $1.3 billion or 2.3 percent to $54.3 billion. By stage of fabrication, October materials and supplies increased 0.2 percent in durable goods and decreased 0.5 percent in nondurable goods. Work in process increased 0.3 percent in durable goods and decreased 1.8 percent in nondurable goods. Finished goods increased 0.9 percent in durable goods and 0.1 percent in nondurable goods.

About the report and source:

The U.S. Census Bureau releases the report for Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders every month.

The advance report on durable goods for November 2012 is scheduled for release on December 24, 2012, at 8:30 a.m. EST and the full report on January 4, 2013, at 10:00 a.m. EST,

Today’s Economic Events And The Age Old Game of Technical Indicators

November 14, 2012 in Forex Analysis

USD/CHF has been continuously failing for past 4 days at or below 200-day Moving Average resistance. Out of these 4 days, 3 days made us witness the classical example of 200-day moving average power when the currency pair failed just after touching that level.

Similar pattern has been with EUR/USD where the pair kept on finding support at it’s 200-day moving average for past 2 days.

Today is a day of some important economic events. Before  going to what is on plate today, the current daily chart of both the currency pairs are as follows:

USD/CHF Failing At 200 Day Moving Average

USD/CHF failing at  200 day moving average resistance

EUR/USD Gaining At 200 Day Moving Average

EUR/USD gaining at  200 day moving average support

Today’s Economic Events:

European Monetary Union and Switzerland:

  • Europe: Both year on year and month on month change in the Industrial Production will be released at 10:00 GMT today.
  • Switzerland: ZEW Survey report for expectations is scheduled to come out at the same time i.e. GMT 10:00 today.

U.S.A.:

  • Producer Price Index reports will be released at 13:30 GMT.
  • At the same time i.e. at GMT 13:30 we will also have Retail Sales reports.
  • At 15:00 GMT U.S. Census Bureau will release the data for monthly percentage change in business inventories with manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. This report does not cause major moves but in an uncertain market  every report is important.
  • The most important event for today from U.S. is the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting’s minutes of one of the 8 meetings held annually. market will be waiting for these minutes to see the reviews of current financial and economic conditions and monetary policies for the future economic growth and stability of prices. FOMC meeting minutes are due at GMT 19:00.

What to Expect From These Currency Pairs with Strong Negative Correlation:

The way 200-day EMA has been proving to be a resistance for USD/CHF and support for EUR USD during recent days, calls for some consolidation. Overall any consolidation for USD CHF up to 0.9500/0.9410 would be natural. Similarly EUR/USD may consolidate towards 1.2790 or even 1.2835/1.2840.

For both these currency pairs such consolidations may be taken as normal with the expectation of another fall. However any decisive breaks of these levels may change the short-term outlook for some time.

Today especially FOMC meeting may cause some increased volatility.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services

November 8, 2012 in U.S.

According to U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the September 2012 international trade deficit of U.S. was decreased by 5.1 percent from August, to $41.5 billion. Exports rose 3.1 percent, to $187.0 billion, and imports increased 1.5 percent, to $228.5 billion.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services

Break Down of U.S. Goods and Service Deficit:

Export and Import of Goods:

The Goods Deficit in September 2012 was down by USD 1.4 billion from the previous month and was reported to be USD 57.5 billion.

  • Goods Exports by U.S.: 134.0 billion U.S. Dollars
  • Goods Imports by U.S.: 191.5 billion U.S. Dollars

Export and Import of Services:

The Service surplus in September 2012 rose by USD 0.8 billion from the previous month and was reported to be USD 15.9 billion

  • Services Exports by U.S.: 53.0 billion U.S. Dollars
  • Services Imports by U.S.: 37.1 billion U.S. Dollars

Year to year change from September 2011 to September 2012:

The deficit of goods and service was increased by USD 2.9 billion.

  • The rise in exports was USD 6.4 billion (3.5%).
  • The rise in imports was USD 3.4 billion (1.5%)