You are browsing the archive for Forex Daily Dose.

FX Daily Dose – February 6, 2014

February 6, 2014 in FX Daily Dose

Daily Forex outlook for currency pairs in focus.Forex Daily Dose- January 29, 2014: The FxDailyDose presents a quick snapshot of the price-action of EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, USD/INR, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/JPY for the immediate and medium-term outlook. Please note that the daily outlook is for current pairs in focus and we may add or remove some of the currency pairs accordingly.

Do not hesitate in contacting us if you wish to know about our view for any specific currency pair.

USD/JPY

Neutral

 

 

USD/JPY stays over 200-day SMA support

USD/JPY remains in a sideways mode after going as low as 100.75. The support has various angles to it e.g. the psychological support of approaching 100.00 level and 200-day moving average support. These support levels also become important considering the overall uptrend. However, considering the recent steep fall some more consolidation can not be ruled out. Even then the intraday  outlook stays neutral as we had indicated in today’s report titled “What USD/JPY Is Waiting For To Decide The Near-Term Direction?“. We expect a direction to be dictated by tomorrows non-farm payroll report and till that time we remain in favor of some more sideways price-action or even some upward consolidation which may extend towards 102.00.

EUR/USD

Neutral

EUR/USD price movement in sideways mode and with lack of volatility

EUR/USD tried to recover after touching the low of 1.3476. The break of the 200-day moving average support and also the brief failure of the psychological support level of 1.3500 has brought the near-term bearish outlook into the picture and the possibilities of further deeper consolidations can not be ruled out. However, the failures of these both support levels have been brief and can not be termed as decisive. Not only the recent price action during this week has been directionless but the volatility has been too low to keep the immediate outlook nothing but neutral. We expect this situation to continue till the non-farm payroll report which is due to be released tomorrow. We stay neutral and away from trading EUR/USD till then.

USD/CAD

Neutral outlook

USD/CAD is stuck in a sideways mode but further consolidations are expected.

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.1224 seems to have lost the momentum near the 22-day EMA support. The price-action is practically in a sideways mode over the recent 1.1031. However, the sideways range seems to be slopping down and there is denying that the short-term bearish pressures for further consolidation are in the picture. Even though our intraday outlook remains neutral but we do expect some more downward consolidation. Any break below 1.1031 should extend the fall towards 1.0990 or even 1.0960/1.0970 after a minor support near 1.1020.

CAD/JPY

possibilities of upward moves by CAD/JPY

Further upward moves are expected by CAD/JPY.

CAD/JPY’s recovery from 90.81 seems to have lost momentum and the price-action is in a sideways range below a resistance at 92.22. The support at 90.81 was a natural one considering the psychological aspects of approaching 90.00 level. The strong fall is arguing against that support as the overall outlook for the near-term stays bearish to expect some more consolidations. However, initially we remain in favor of some upward correction. Any break over 92.22 may extend the corrective moves towards 92.70 to 92.89 resistance zone first and then possibly towards 93.23. However, if the resistance holds then any break below 90.80 should extend the fall towards 90.44 support next and then possibly a retest of 88.51.

GBP/USD

NeutralGBP/USD is showing all signs to move downward for some more consolidation towards the next support level of 1.6217/1.6220. In fact the fall may extend to 1.6160 also. However the loss of volatility after the pair touched the recent low of 1.6252 is keeping our immediate outlook neutral. As mentioned in the EUR/USD and USD/JPY sections above, a direction may come tomorrow with the non-farm payroll report and till then some extended sideways moves or even some upward correction can not be ruled out.

EUR/GBP

Neutral

EUR/JPY is expected to move up for some more consolidation.

EUR/GBP is hesitating in moving ahead with the recent attempt of recovery after touching 0.8333. Euro has been weakening against the British pound since February 2013 i.e. for close to 1 year. There is no change in the overall outlook that some more weakness should take place. However the immediate outlook is neutral but has a mild bullish flavor for some more recovery towards 0.8373 to 0.8394 resistance zone, if the pair manages a break over 0.8333.

EUR/AUD

possibilities of upward moves by EUR/AUD
EUR/AUD may move up for some correction.EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.5832 represents the psychological resistance of approaching 1.6000 level. The fall, as of now has extended to 1.5060 and now the pair is in the psychological support territory of 1.5000 ranges. Even if some more downward moves take place, a strong support will be expected at or above 1.5035. We stay neutral but favor some upward correction first.

USD/INR

Neutral We stay neutral for USD/INR. On the upside the first resistance at 62.95 but then more importantly 63.49 is critical. Only a break over that will suggest a bottoming. Practically the USD/INR is stuck between the psychological levels of 60.00 and 65.00 after failing to touch the all time high of 70.00. We expect some extended sideways moves between the psychological 60.00 and 65.00 level. However the price action has been closer to 60.00 than 65.00 and hence the possibilities of a downward break is more, before another recovery takes place.  Our immediate outlook stays neutral for USD/INR.

Check previous entries of FxDailyDose (The short URL, for your convenience, is http://bit.ly/FXDailyDose).

You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:

Daily Analysis:

  1. EUR/USD daily analysis
  2. USD/JPY daily analysis
  3. GBP/USD daily analysis
  4. USD/CHF daily analysis
  5. AUD/USD daily analysis
  6. EUR/JPY daily analysis
  7. GBP/JPY daily analysis
  8. AUD/JPY daily analysis

Weekly Forex outlook

  1. EUR/USD outlook
  2. USD/JPY outlook
  3. GBP/USD outlook
  4. USD/CHF outlook
  5. AUD/USD outlook
  6. EUR/JPY outlook
  7. GBP/JPY outlook
  8. AUD/JPY outlook

FX Daily Dose – January 29, 2014

January 29, 2014 in FX Daily Dose

Daily forex outlookForex Daily Dose- January 29, 2014: The FxDailyDose presents a quick snapshot of the price-action of EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, USD/INR, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/JPY for the immediate and medium-term outlook. Please note that the daily outlook is for current pairs in focus and we may add or remove some of the currency pairs accordingly.

Do not hesitate in contacting us if you wish to know about our view for any specific currency pair.

USD/JPY

Neutral

 

 

USD/JPY is finding resistance at 55-day EMA.

USD/JPY jumped up from 101.76, which was slightly above the expected resistance of 101.62 and that had indicated that the downward consolidation might be over. We had mentioned about this support on January 24, 2014. However, the current resistance is coming at 55-day EMA level and this previous support is acting as resistance now. Considering this the immediate outlook for the short-term is neutral. A decisive break over 103.44 but more specifically 103.85 is crucial to indicate the near-term bottoming. We expect some sideways trading till a break over 103.85 does not take place. There is no change in the longer-term outlook which stays bullish.

EUR/USD

Neutral

EURU/SD in sideways mode.

Please check the previous update where we had mentioned that EUR/USD’s recovery indicates that the pair might have already bottomed up for the short-term and further gains could be expected. The levels where the recent support came favor this outlook. However, after the initial recovery, past 4 day’s price-action has been directionless. Some improvement has been there in the daily volatility which had gone down drastically. We still favor further upward movement as long as the price stays over 1.3620/1.3629 support. However, considering the sideways moves, we stay neutral for the short-term. On the upside the resistance at 1.3716 but more importantly 1.3739 are critical. Any break above 1.3749 will indicate that the pair might have really bottomed up for the near-term. Similarly on the downside the support at 1.3581 is critical. Any failure of that support will argue against the above outlook and such a move may take EUR/USD to 1.3520/1.3530 support first and possibly lower.

USD/CAD

bullishUSD/CAD had broke out of the previous sideways mode and jumped up aggressively. If the support at 1.1119 holds and a break over 1.1180 takes place then further gains, first, towards 1.1230 and then possibly 1.1255 will be expected. Any decisive break below 1.1119 will make the short-term outlook neutral. However, the bearishness in the short-term outlook will only come is the support at 1.1031 fails. Such a move may bring a consolidation towards 1.0960/1.0970. Overall outlook stays bullish for USD/CAD.

CAD/JPY

bearishCAD/JPY has again entered a sideways mode after a sharp fall. Till there is a breakout from this range, we stay neutral but overall we expect another fall if the resistance at 93.23 holds. A break below the recent 91.85 should target 91.20 support next. We will again expect some sideways moves with that support because the psychological push of approaching 90.00 ranges should start coming into the picture there. However, any decisive failure of 91.19 support will have stronger bearish implications to target 90.44 support next and then possibly a retest of 88.51. If the support holds at 91.85 then on the upside, any failure of 93.23 support should bring further consolidation towards 93.88 first but it may extend as high as 94.20 or more.

GBP/USD

NeutralGBP/USD should find the first support at 1.6583 even if that support fails, as long as the price action stays above 1.6560, we expect further gains. However a better indication will come if the critical resistance at 1.6625 fails. Till then the short-term outlook stays neutral. On the upside a break over 1.6625 should target 1.6668 next and then possibly 1.6740. However any failure of 1.6561 support will turn the focus for a retest of 1.6535. Any failure of 1.6535 support will indicate the short-term topping to target 1.6475 first and then possibly 1.6420.

EUR/GBP

NeutralEUR/GBP’s support at 0.8168 had just represented the psychological support of the approaching 80.00 ranges. Overall outlook for EUR/GBP stays bearish  but the immediate outlook is neutral. If the pair breaks over 0.8253 then some more consolidation should come towards 0.8286/0.8306 resistance zone. The recent resistance pattern has been 55-day EMA and on the upside any decisive break over 0.8306 will not only represent the break of the resent resistance but also the break of this pattern. In case such a move takes place then it will indicate a short-term bottoming. However a better indication will only come if 0.8348 resistance fails. With these resistance a break below 0.8209 should extend the fall first to retest the recent 0.8168 and then possibly 0.8120 or more.

EUR/AUD

NeutralEUR/AUD’s fall from 1.5832 represents the psychological resistance of approaching 1.6000 level. Such a resistance may extend the downward consolidation further towards 1.5428 or more, if the resistance holds at 1.5737 and any break below 1.5475 takes place. However our immediate outlook is neutral for EUR/AUD though overall we stay positive.

USD/INR

NeutralUSD/INR fell strongly from 63.49 and the price-action indicates that a short-term bottom may already be in place. However the price-action since October 2013 has been proving that, on the downside, the 60.00 level is acting as a very strong psychological level. The lowest the pair has gone since the fall from 69.52 was 60.54. The next support levels have been above that. We expect some extended sideways moves between the psychological 60.00 and 65.00 level. However the price action has been closer to 60.00 than 65.00 and hence the possibilities of a downward break is more, before another recovery takes place.  Our immediate outlook stays neutral for USD/INR.

Check previous entries of FxDailyDose (The short URL, for your convenience, is http://bit.ly/FXDailyDose).

You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:

Daily Analysis:

  1. EUR/USD daily analysis
  2. USD/JPY daily analysis
  3. GBP/USD daily analysis
  4. USD/CHF daily analysis
  5. AUD/USD daily analysis
  6. EUR/JPY daily analysis
  7. GBP/JPY daily analysis
  8. AUD/JPY daily analysis

Weekly Forex outlook

  1. EUR/USD outlook
  2. USD/JPY outlook
  3. GBP/USD outlook
  4. USD/CHF outlook
  5. AUD/USD outlook
  6. EUR/JPY outlook
  7. GBP/JPY outlook
  8. AUD/JPY outlook

FX Daily Dose – January 21, 2014

January 21, 2014 in FX Daily Dose

Forex daily outlookForex Daily Dose- January 21, 2014: The FxDailyDose presents a quick snapshot of the price-action of EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, USD/INR, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/JPY for the immediate and medium-term outlook. Please note that the daily outlook is for current pairs in focus and we may add or remove some of the currency pairs accordingly.

Do not hesitate in contacting us if you wish to know about our view for any specific currency pair.

USD/JPY

Neutral

 

 

USD/JPY moved up strongly to touch 104.69. We remain in favor of further gains however the immediate outlook stays neutral till there is a break over 104.92 but more specifically 105.00. In case such a move takes place then the pair should retest the resistance zone of 105.35 to 105.44 resistance zone. However, this outlook will change if USD/JPY breaks below 103.83 which is 3 pips below the recent support. Even if such a move takes place the next support will be expected at or above 103.57 but any decisive failure of that support will turn the focus back for the retest of 102.85.

EUR/USD

Neutral

EUR/USD - recent supportEUR/USD’s recent support at 1.3507 indicates the following:

  • The recovery came well ahead of retesting the low (1.3490) of the hammer styled daily candle of November 25, 2013.
  • 1.3500 psychological level held.
  • The short-term support trend-line as shown in the daily chart above also seems to be holding.
  • The support was also slightly over the 200-day moving average which indicated that the recent trend of support is holding.
EURUSD over 200 day moving average

EURUSD over 200 day moving average

Considering all the above points, we expect further gains towards 1.3600 where the resistance Tenkan line of the daily Ichimoku cloud may act and also the pull of 1.3500 level may come into the picture. On the upside if there is a decisive break of 1.3605 then further gains towards the resistance zone of 1.3640 to 1.3650 will be expected. The focus will turn towards downside only if the price-action overcomes the psychological support of 1.3500 by falling below 1.3490. Today’s ZEW surveys for economic sentiments from Germany and European Monetary Unions may also act as the driver for the short-term direction

USD/CAD

Neutral

USDCAD in sideways modeUSD/CAD has been in a volatile sideways mode for past 5 trading days. Overall sentiments and outlook stays bullish but till the resistance of 1.1000 is not overcome we stay neutral for upside. More specifically a break out on either side i.e. below 1.0905 or above 1.0991 is required to determine the short-term direction. An upside breakout should target 1.1050 next, however if the support at 1.0905 fails then further consolidation towards the next support zone of 1.0842 to 1.0860 will be expected. The immediate outlook will turn towards bearish side for some deeper consolidations only if a decisive break below 1.0842 but more importantly 1.0823 takes place.

CAD/JPY

Neutral outlook

 

CAD/JPY remains in a sideways mode for past 8 trading days after the recovery attempt failed at 95.90. If the resistance at 95.90 holds then the possibilities of deeper consolidations can not be ruled out but the break of 94.58 support is required as confirmation. CAD/JPY’s recent moves presented an excellent example of number psychology. The pair was in a strong uptrend but faced an equally strong resistance before hitting the major psychological level of 100.00. The sharp fall broke the psychological support of 95.00 but marginally. The recent price action after the recovery from 94.58 is indicating that the psychological support of 95.00 is also in place. In case there is no decisive break of 94.58, but more importantly 94.00, then some extended sideways moves can be expected. We stay neutral for CAD/JPY from short-term perspective.

GBP/USD

Neutral

GBP/USD maintains the overall bullish sentiments. However the drastic drop in the volatility and the continuous resistance of 1.6500 key psychological level are keeping us neutral for the pair, as far as the immediate outlook is concerned. To turn the focus back towards upside, the failure of 1.6464 resistance but more importantly a break of a.6517 resistance is crucial. In case such a move takes place then GBP/USD should target a retest of 1.6603 next. However if these resistances hold and the support of 1.6309 fails then the focus will turn back towards downside for 1.6217 or below.

EUR/GBP

Neutral

EUR/GBP has not only gone into a sideways range but the volatility has gone down drastically. The overall outlook stays bearish but some upward consolidation cannot be ruled out. On the upside the first resistance is expected in the range of 0.8330 to 0..8348. This range not only represents the recent resistance but also the 55-day EMA resistance. Even if this resistance fails we expect any upward consolidation to be limited to 0.8392 to bring another drop. On the downside a break below 0.8230 but more specifically 0.8220 is required to continue the ongoing fall to target 0.8180 or more.

EUR/AUD

Neutral

EUR/AUD’s strong recovery from 1.5030 i.e. well ahead of the psychological a.5000 level stalled after a brief break of 1.5500. We remain in the favor of further gains as long as the price-action stays above 1.5280. However a break above 1.5508 is critical to maintain this outlook. If such a break takes place then EUR/AUD should target the resistance zone of 1.5557 to 1.5597. However if this resistance holds and the expected support at 1.5280 fails then the focus will turn back towards 1.5030 or below. Our immediate outlook stays neutral.

USD/INR

Neutral

USD/INR remains in a narrow sideways range between 61.07 and 61.71 after failing below the resistance zone of 62.44/62.50. The price -action is clearly showing the psychological support of 60.00 ranges and a fear of entering that range by breaking below 61.00. Overall, as we have been mentioning is some of the previous updates, we expect some deeper consolidations in the days to come but our immediate outlook stays neutral for USD/INR.

Check previous entries of FxDailyDose (The short URL, for your convenience, is http://bit.ly/FXDailyDose).

You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:

Daily Analysis:

  1. EUR/USD daily analysis
  2. USD/JPY daily analysis
  3. GBP/USD daily analysis
  4. USD/CHF daily analysis
  5. AUD/USD daily analysis
  6. EUR/JPY daily analysis
  7. GBP/JPY daily analysis
  8. AUD/JPY daily analysis

Weekly Forex outlook

  1. EUR/USD outlook
  2. USD/JPY outlook
  3. GBP/USD outlook
  4. USD/CHF outlook
  5. AUD/USD outlook
  6. EUR/JPY outlook
  7. GBP/JPY outlook
  8. AUD/JPY outlook

FX Daily Dose – January 7, 2014

January 7, 2014 in FX Daily Dose

Forex daily outlookForex Daily Dose- January 7, 2014: The FxDailyDose presents a quick snapshot of the price-action of EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, USD/INR, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/JPY for the immediate and medium-term outlook. Please note that the daily outlook is for current pairs in focus and we may add or remove some of the currency pairs accordingly.

Do not hesitate in contacting us if you wish to know about our view for any specific currency pair.

 

USD/JPY

Neutral

 

 

USD/JPY daily chart

USD/JPY tried to break the support of 104.00 and hence 22-day EMA which we have been mentioning for past 2 days but the break could not sustain and the pair jumped up immediately from 103.91 i.e. from 9 pips below 104. The previous daily candle was also a Doji styled candle which indicate complete uncertainty. Such a candle after a sharp drop may also cause an upside reversal. However, our outlook remains neutral and unchanged for the immediate price-action and as follows: ” The price action has been trying to break the 22-day EMA support but has not been able to sustain below it. This support trend has been in place for close to 2 months. Another immediate recovery should take place as long as the support holds at or above 104.00 but a break over 105.00 but more importantly 105.44 is required to expect the resumption of the trend. However, any failure of 104.00 support may result in deeper consolidations first towards 103.77 or below. In fact any break of 103.77 will change the immediate outlook slightly towards bearish to target the next support zone of 103.03 to 103.20.”.

EUR/USD

Neutral

EUR/USD daily chart for today's outlook

EUR/USD found resistance exactly at 55-day EMA level after trying to recover from 1.3571. There is no change in the outlook from what we had indicated in the previous update and we our views remain same that EUR/USD’s fall had lost momentum well ahead of the psychological level of 1.3500. The sharp fall which took place with the near year beginning was slightly unexpected but not unnatural because of the strong psychological resistance of 1.4000 level. Further drop can not be ruled out but a strong support is expected in the range of 1.3524 to 1.3528. Even if this support fails, 1.3500 level should provide a stronger support. However any decisive break of 1.3500 but more specifically 1.3490 will bring in some real bearish sentiments and such a move will be the first step in suggesting that a near-term top might have already been reached. Such a move, if takes place, should target 1.3400 first and possibly below. On the upside the first resistance is expected at or below 1.3675. In case the mentioned supports hold and a break over 1.3675 takes place then a recovery towards the resistance at 1.3728 will be expected. On the upside the first level of resistance should hold in the range of 1.3728 to 1.3749. Any failure of this resistance will be the first indication that the consolidation might be over. If such a move takes place then another test of 1.3800 should be in the pipe-line. Another break over 1.3800 should target a retest of 1.3894 and then possibly 1.3940.

USD/CAD

Neutral

USD/CAD daily chart for today's outlook

USD/CAD seems to be maintaining the support pattern at 55-day EMA. The recovery extended slightly to 1.0686 but the price is still 10 pips below the resistance level which we have been indicating from previous 2 updates. The outlook remains unchanged and we have to repeat our views once again for the ready reference: “The recent high was lower than the previous high but in the same way the subsequent lows have also been getting higher. Sooner or later we expect another upward jump but considering the overall volatile sideways moves, we stay neutral initially. On the upside the first resistance is expected at 1.0696. Any failure of that resistance should target 1.0723 to a.0737 resistance. We will repeat what we had mentioned in the previous update that with any break over 1.0744 to 1.0750 resistance zone we would expect USD/CAD to target 1.0854 of the week of May 24, 2010. Before the pair had touched 1.0854 during May 2010, an extremely strong resistance had continued to be in the range of 1.0744 to 1.0750. The recent resistance was felt just 7 pips below this range and that indicates that this resistance may prove to be critical. The possibilities of another recovery will remain in place as long as the price action remains over 1.0581. Any break below this support should first target 1.0561 minor support and then possibly 1.0520.”.

CAD/JPY

Bearish

 

 

CAD/JPY daily chart for today's outlook

CAD/JPY broke the support of 97.59 which we had been indicating in previous 2 updates. Yesterday’s support had come just 2 pips above that but the attempt of another recovery had failed at 98.47 before the pair went 9 pips below the said support to touch 97.50. We now expect some more consolidation towards a strong support zone of 97.19 to 97.25. This support level represents the previous support as well as the support level of 55-day EMA. Till the support holds at 97.19, another recovery to retest 99.15 will be expected. However as we had mentioned in last to last update, Even if CAD/JPY breaks above 99.15, a strong resistance will be expected at 99.38. This level had proved to be a minor support during May 2013 and now we expect it to turn into a resistance. Sooner or later we expect a break of this resistance and a test of 100.00, however. On the downside any failure of 97.19 support should bring further consolidation towards the support zone of 96.30 to 96.48.

GBP/USD

Neutral

GBP/USD daily chart for today's outlook

GBP/USD dropped further slightly to 1.6337. The support came just over 55-day EMA and 15 pips above the support zone of 1.6316 to 1.6322 which we have been indicating from past 2 updates. Further drop towards this support zone can not be ruled out but before that we expect some more recovery towards 1.6455. As we had mentioned earlier also, the immediate outlook will start turning towards bearish side only with any move below 1.6316 and such a move mat extend the consolidation to 1.6217 or below. On the upside the first level of resistance is now expected at 1.6444 but we will stay neutral for the upside till the price-action remains below the next resistance zone of 1.6474 to 1.6493 and any break of that resistance will be the first indication that the downward consolidation might be over. A better indication will come with another break over 1.6500, which should take GBP/USD first to the immediate resistance above that at 1.6533 and then possibly to retest 1.6603 and above.

EUR/GBP

Neutral

EUR/GBP daily chart for today's outlook

EUR/GBP extended the recovery slightly more to 0.8331. The resistance came at 22-day EMA. Our outlook remains unchanged from yesterday.  We expect further upward recovery but will stay neutral for that till a break over the recent 0.8331 does not take place. Even if this break takes place, as mentioned during the previous update, we will expect a very strong at 0.8350 or at the most at 0.8380. If this resistance holds and if the pair manages a break below 0.8252 then the continuation of the ongoing downtrend will be expected to take it to 0.8160 to complete the 61.8% retracement of the gains from 0.7755 to 0.8815 and then possibly 0.8085. On the upside any break over 0.8392 may delay the expected further fall and may target 0.8414 to 0.8423 resistance zone.

EUR/AUD

Neutral

EUR/AUD daily chart for today's outlook

EUR/AUD has extended the recovery to 1.5286 but seems to have stuck between the 55-day EMA support and 22-day EMA resistance. The price-action is in a volatile sideways mode and that is keeping us neutral. As we had also mentioned yesterday that the support at 1.5116 was more like a a psychological support of the approaching psychological ranges of 1.5000. A break above the recent 1.5286 bring some more recovery towards 1.5311 or more  but any significant upward gains will only be expected if the price-action breaks above 1.5365 to 1.5382 resistance. The important point to observe is that though EUR/AUD tried to break above 1.5500 psychological level time and again but failed to sustain over it. This facts suggests that at best we should expect some volatile sideways moves below 1.5500 and even some deeper consolidations cannot be ruled out.

USD/INR

Neutral

USD/INR daily chart for today's outlook

USD/INR remains in a very narrow sideways mode below the resistance zone of 62.44/62.50 which we have been indicating during previous updates. There is no change in our outlook and hence we will repeat what we had mentioned earlier i.e. “We remain neutral initially and our outlook stays neutral as long as there is no upward break of the resistance of the 62.44/62.50 range. If this resistance fails then further gains towards 63.00 may take place but we will expect any recovery to be limited below 63.40 to bring another fall. On the downside any break below 61.33/61.30 will be the first indication of topping. Overall we remain in the favor of further drop in the near-term and the only thing which is sustaining USD/JPY from further downward consolidation is the psychological support of 60.00. On the upside the first resistance is expected below 62.00 but overall only a break above 62.40 to 62.50 resistance will indicate the possibilities that a short-term bottom is in place.”.

Check previous entries of FxDailyDose (The short URL, for your convenience, is http://bit.ly/FXDailyDose).

You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:

Daily Analysis:

  1. EUR/USD daily analysis
  2. USD/JPY daily analysis
  3. GBP/USD daily analysis
  4. USD/CHF daily analysis
  5. AUD/USD daily analysis
  6. EUR/JPY daily analysis
  7. GBP/JPY daily analysis
  8. AUD/JPY daily analysis

Weekly Forex outlook

  1. EUR/USD outlook
  2. USD/JPY outlook
  3. GBP/USD outlook
  4. USD/CHF outlook
  5. AUD/USD outlook
  6. EUR/JPY outlook
  7. GBP/JPY outlook
  8. AUD/JPY outlook

FX Daily Dose – January 6, 2014

January 6, 2014 in FX Daily Dose

Forex daily outlook“Forex Daily Dose” presents a quick snapshot of the price-action of EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, USD/INR, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/JPY for the immediate and medium-term outlook. Please note that the daily outlook is for current pairs in focus and we may add or remove some of the currency pairs accordingly.

Do not hesitate in contacting us if you wish to know about our view for any specific currency pair.

 

 

USD/JPY

Neutral

 

USD/JPY had extended it’s fall to 104.07 before recovering to USD/JPY finding support at 22-day EMA104.95 and falling back to 104.15 after failing below the psychological level of 105. As of now there is no change in our outlook from what we had mentioned during the previous update. The price action has been trying to break the 22-day EMA support but has not been able to sustain below it. This support trend has been in place for close to 2 months. Another immediate recovery should take place as long as the support holds at or above 104.00 but a break over 105.00 but more importantly 105.44 is required to expect the resumption of the trend. However, any failure of 104.00 support may result in deeper consolidations first towards 103.77 or below. In fact any break of 103.77 will change the immediate outlook slightly towards bearish to target the next support zone of 103.03 to 103.20.

EUR/USD

NeutralEUR/USD extended it’s fall to 1.3571 but lost momentum well ahead of the psychological level of 1.3500. The sharp fall which took place with the near year beginning was slightly unexpected but not unnatural because of the strong psychological resistance of 1.4000 level. Further drop can not be ruled out but a strong support is expected in the range of 1.3524 to 1.3528. Even if this support fails, 1.3500 level should provide a stronger support. However any decisive break of 1.3500 but more specifically 1.3490 will bring in some real bearish sentiments and such a move will be the first step in suggesting that a near-term top might have already been reached. Such a move, if takes place, should target 1.3400 first and possibly below. In case the mentioned supports hold then a recovery towards the resistance at 1.3728 will be expected. On the upside the first level of resistance should hold in the range of 1.3728 to 1.3749. Any failure of this resistance will be the first indication that the consolidation might be over. If such a move takes place then another test of 1.3800 should be in the pipe-line. Another break over 1.3800 should target a retest of 1.3894 and then possibly 1.3940.

USD/CAD

NeutralUSD/CAD found resistance 18 pips below the resistance USD/CAD remains over 55-day ema supportlevel mentioned during the previous update. The recovery attempt failed at 1.0678 and the price-action fell into a sideways mode. However the mentioned support of 55-day EMA continues and there is no change in our outlook. We will repeat what we had mentioned earlier for the ready reference: ” The recent high was lower than the previous high but in the same way the subsequent lows have also been getting higher. Sooner or later we expect another upward jump but considering the overall volatile sideways moves, we stay neutral initially. On the upside the first resistance is expected at 1.0696. Any failure of that resistance should target 1.0723 to a.0737 resistance. We will repeat what we had mentioned in the previous update that with any break over 1.0744 to 1.0750 resistance zone we would expect USD/CAD to target 1.0854 of the week of May 24, 2010. Before the pair had touched 1.0854 during May 2010, an extremely strong resistance had continued to be in the range of 1.0744 to 1.0750. The recent resistance was felt just 7 pips below this range and that indicates that this resistance may prove to be critical. The possibilities of another recovery will remain in place as long as the price action remains over 1.0581. Any break below this support should first target 1.0561 minor support and then possibly 1.0520.”.

CAD/JPY

Neutral

 

CAD/JPY had found support 2 pips above the support level mentioned by us during the last update. The pair then recovered to 98.69 but fell again to 98.11 before trying to recover again. There is no change in our outlook and we will repeat what we had mentioned earlier, with minor modifications,  for the ready reference: ” The fall from 99.15 was quite natural because of the psychological resistance of the approaching 100.00 level.  A minor support is expected at or over 97.59 and any failure of that should make CAD/JPY to target a strong support level of 97.19. Till the support holds at 97.19, another recovery to retest 99.15 will be expected. However as we had mentioned in the previous update, Even if CAD/JPY breaks above 99.15, a strong resistance will be expected at 99.38. This level had proved to be a minor support during May 2013 and now we expect it to turn into a resistance. Sooner or later we expect a break of this resistance and a test of 100.00, however. On the downside any failure of 97.19 support should bring further consolidation towards the support zone of 96.30 to 96.48.”.

GBP/USD

NeutralGBP/USD extended its fall to go as low as 1.6348. The price-action is still above the second level of support indicated by us during the previous update i.e. 1.6316 to 1.6322. Further drop towards this support zone can not be ruled out now. As we had mentioned earlier also, the immediate outlook will start turning towards bearish side only with any move below 1.6316 and such a move mat extend the consolidation to 1.6217 or below. On the upside the first level of resistance is now expected at 1.6444 but we will stay neutral for the upside till the price-action remains below the next resistance zone of 1.6474 to 1.6493 and any break of that resistance will be the first indication that the downward consolidation might be over. A better indication will come with another break over 1.6500, which should take GBP/USD first to the immediate resistance above that at 1.6533 and then possibly to retest 1.6603 and above.

EUR/GBP

NeutralEUR/GBP had failed in recovery from 0.8270 after touching 0.8319. However the subsequent drop did not retest the low of 0.8270 and the support came at 0.8275 to take the pair to 0.8316. We expect further upward recovery but will stay neutral for that till a break over the recent 0.8319 does not take place. Even if this break takes place, as mentioned during the previous update, we will expect a very strong at 0.8350 or at the most at 0.8380. If this resistance holds and if the pair manages a break below 0.8252 then the continuation of the ongoing downtrend will be expected to take it to 0.8160 to complete the 61.8% retracement of the gains from 0.7755 to 0.8815 and then possibly 0.8085. On the upside any break over 0.8392 may delay the expected further fall.

EUR/AUD

NeutralEUR/AUD extended it’s fall to as low as 1.5116 before falling into a sideways mode between 1.5116 and 1.5233. The support came above the 55-day EMA but more than that we take it as a psychological support of the approaching psychological ranges of 1.5000. We stay neutral with the current price-action. If the resistance at 1.5233 holds and a break below the recent1.5116 takes place then further downward consolidation can not be ruled out. This can extend to as low as 1.5017 to 1.5020 support zone of the sideways price action during December 5 to December 10, 2013. However we will expect a very strong support in or above that support zone. If that support fails then the bearish sentiments will come into the picture and the focus will turn back towards 1.4858 or even 1.4799. On the upside, a break over 1.5233 may bring some more recovery towards 1.5311 or more  but any significant upward gains will only be expected if the price-action breaks above 1.5365 to 1.5382 resistance. The important point to observe is that though EUR/AUD tried to break above 1.5500 psychological level time and again but failed to sustain over it. This facts suggests that at best we should expect some volatile sideways moves below 1.5500 and even some deeper consolidations cannot be ruled out.

USD/INR

NeutralUSD/INR found resistance exactly in the resistance zone indicated by us during the last update i.e. 62.44/62.50 range. The pair remained in a sideways mode after touching 62.48. There is no change in our outlook and hence we will repeat what we had mentioned earlier i.e. “We remain neutral initially and our outlook stays neutral as long as there is no upward break of the resistance of the 62.44/62.50 range. If this resistance fails then further gains towards 63.00 may take place but we will expect any recovery to be limited below 63.40 to bring another fall. On the downside any break below 61.33/61.30 will be the first indication of topping. Overall we remain in the favor of further drop in the near-term and the only thing which is sustaining USD/JPY from further downward consolidation is the psychological support of 60.00. On the upside the first resistance is expected below 62.00 but overall only a break above 62.40 to 62.50 resistance will indicate the possibilities that a short-term bottom is in place.”..

Check previous entries of FxDailyDose (The short URL, for your convenience, is http://bit.ly/FXDailyDose).

You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:

Daily Analysis:

  1. EUR/USD daily analysis
  2. USD/JPY daily analysis
  3. GBP/USD daily analysis
  4. USD/CHF daily analysis
  5. AUD/USD daily analysis
  6. EUR/JPY daily analysis
  7. GBP/JPY daily analysis
  8. AUD/JPY daily analysis

Weekly Forex outlook

  1. EUR/USD outlook
  2. USD/JPY outlook
  3. GBP/USD outlook
  4. USD/CHF outlook
  5. AUD/USD outlook
  6. EUR/JPY outlook
  7. GBP/JPY outlook
  8. AUD/JPY outlook

FX Daily Dose – January 3, 2014

January 3, 2014 in FX Daily Dose

Daily Forex outlook“Forex Daily Dose” presents a quick snapshot of the price-action of EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, USD/INR, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/JPY for the immediate and medium-term outlook. Please note that the daily outlook is for current pairs in focus and we may add or remove some of the currency pairs accordingly.

Do not hesitate in contacting us if you wish to know about our view for any specific currency pair.

 

 

USD/JPY

Neutral

 

USD/JPY fell rather sharply after touching 105.44 to touch USD/JPY is close to the support pattern.104.54 and realizing some support there. The drop as of now does not change the views and the overall outlook remains positive. The price action is still above the recent support trend of 22-day EMA. This support trend has been in place for close to 2 months. Further consolidation is expected first towards 104.20/104.30 and may also extend to 104.00. Another immediate recovery should take place as long as the support holds at or above 104.00. However any failure of this support may result in deeper consolidations, first towards 103.77 or below. In fact any break of 103.77 will change the immediate outlook slightly towards bearish to target the next support zone of 103.03 to 103.20.

EUR/USD

NeutralEUR/USD started the new year with a sharp drop which has broken the support of 55-day EMA and hence the recent support pattern. The pair has touched the low of 1.3629 which is slightly above the previous support of 1.3625. Further downward consolidation can not be ruled out but we will wait for any break below 1.3625 as the confirmation for this view. Even with such a move another immediate support will be expected near 1.3615. However, any break below 1.3615 will turn the focus downwards for 1.3543 or more. On the upside the first level of resistance should hold in the range of 1.3728 to 1.3749. Any failure of this resistance will be the first indication that the consolidation might be over. If such a move takes place then another test of 1.3800 should be in the pipe-line. Another break over 1.3800 should target a retest of 1.3894 and then possibly 1.3940.

USD/CAD

bullishUSD/CAD found support at 55-day EMA. The recent high USD/CAD finds support at 55-day EMAwas lower than the previous high but in the same way the subsequent lows have also been getting higher. Sooner or later we expect another upward jump but considering the overall volatile sideways moves, we stay neutral initially. On the upside the first resistance is expected at 1.0696. Any failure of that resistance should target 1.0723 to a.0737 resistance. We will repeat what we had mentioned in the previous update that with any break over 1.0744 to 1.0750 resistance zone we would expect USD/CAD to target 1.0854 of the week of May 24, 2010. Before the pair had touched 1.0854 during May 2010, an extremely strong resistance had continued to be in the range of 1.0744 to 1.0750. The recent resistance was felt just 7 pips below this range and that indicates that this resistance may prove to be critical. The possibilities of another recovery will remain in place as long as the price action remains over 1.0581. Any break below this support should first target 1.0561 minor support and then possibly 1.0520.

CAD/JPY

Neutral

 

CAD/JPY fell very sharply after touching 99.15. The fall has been quite natural because of the psychological resistance of the approaching 100.00 level. Till now the price action has touched 97.71 and further drop can not be ruled out. A minor support is now expected at 97.59 and any failure of that should make CAD/JPY to target a strong support level of 97.19. Till the support holds at 97.19, another recovery to retest 99.15 will be expected. However as we had mentioned in the previous update, Even if CAD/JPY breaks above 99.15, a strong resistance will be expected at 99.38. This level had proved to be a minor support during May 2013 and now we expect it to turn into a resistance. Sooner or later we expect a break of this resistance and a test of 100.00, however. On the downside any failure of 97.19 support should bring further consolidation towards the support zone of 96.30 to 96.48.

GBP/USD

NeutralGBP/USD fell sharply to 1.6410 after touching 1.6603. Though further consolidation can not be ruled out but a better indication will only come if the support at 1.6400/1.6394 fails. Such a failure will represent the failure of the 1.6500 key psychological level. This previous psychological resistance level should now act a pulling force. If the support at or above 1.6394 fails then further consolidation towards 1.6316 to 1.6322 support zone should take place. The immediate outlook will start turning towards bearish side only with any move below 1.6316 and such a move mat extend the consolidation to 1.6217 or below. On the upside the first level of resistance is now expected at 1.6460 and any break of that resistance will be the first indication that the downward consolidation might be over. A better indication will come with another break over 1.6500, which should take GBP/USD first to the immediate resistance above that at 1.6533 and then possibly to retest 1.6603 and above.

EUR/GBP

bullishEUR/GBP extended it’s drop to 0.8270 before realizing some support over the previous support level of 0.8252. The slight recovery has take the pair to as high as 0.8319. Some more recovery may take place but we will expect a very strong at 0.8350 or at the most at 0.8380. If this resistance holds and if the pair manages a break below 0.8252 then the continuation of the ongoing downtrend will be expected to take it to 0.8160 to complete the 61.8% retracement of the gains from 0.7755 to 0.8815 and then possibly 0.8085. On the upside any break over 0.8392 may delay the expected further fall.

EUR/AUD

bullishEUR/AUD extended its fall to break below the previous EUR/AUD breaks supportsupport of 1.5287 to touch 1.5257. This failure of the expected support indicates the possibilities of further consolidation towards the support zone of 1.5163 to 1.5189. However we will wait to see if there is a break below 1.5257 to turn our focus towards 1.5189/1.5163 support. A failure of that support will indicate a near-term topping. The important point to observe is that though EUR/AUD tried to break above 1.5500 psychological level time and again but failed to sustain over it. This facts suggests that some deeper consolidations can not be ruled out.

USD/INR

NeutralUSD/INR jumped up strongly to touch 62.35. Further upward gains cannot be ruled out but the fact remains same that the price-action, as of now, remains in sideways mode between 61.31 and 62.44. We remain neutral initially and our outlook stays neutral as long as there is no upward break of the resistance of the 62.44/62.50 range. If this resistance fails then further gains towards 63.00 may take place but we will expect any recovery to be limited below 63.40 to bring another fall. On the downside any break below 61.33/61.30 will be the first indication of topping. Overall we remain in the favor of further drop in the near-term and the only thing which is sustaining USD/JPY from further downward consolidation is the psychological support of 60.00. On the upside the first resistance is expected below 62.00 but overall only a break above 62.40 to 62.50 resistance will indicate the possibilities that a short-term bottom is in place.

Check previous entries of FxDailyDose (The short URL, for your convenience, is http://bit.ly/FXDailyDose).

You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:

Daily Analysis:

  1. EUR/USD daily analysis
  2. USD/JPY daily analysis
  3. GBP/USD daily analysis
  4. USD/CHF daily analysis
  5. AUD/USD daily analysis
  6. EUR/JPY daily analysis
  7. GBP/JPY daily analysis
  8. AUD/JPY daily analysis

Weekly Forex outlook

  1. EUR/USD outlook
  2. USD/JPY outlook
  3. GBP/USD outlook
  4. USD/CHF outlook
  5. AUD/USD outlook
  6. EUR/JPY outlook
  7. GBP/JPY outlook
  8. AUD/JPY outlook