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GBP/JPY Gives A Near Term Bearish Signal – Forex Chart Alert

August 1, 2013 in Chart Alert

After a fall from 156.77, GBP/JPY had remained in a volatile sideways mode since middle of June 2013. The recent fall is indicating a near term bearish mood for deeper consolidation.

Before this fall we had indicated that the pair is in a very strong resistance zone. Please check this previous GBP/JPY aleart for the same.

This chart alert is to indicate those bearish sign and what can be expected.

GBP/JPY’s break of 22-week EMA

GBPJPY breaks 22 week EMA

The upward journey had started from the end of May 2012. During the beginning of September 2012 the pair had broken over 22 week EMA resistance and since then the price action has been over this level. Any downward consolidation was finding support over this level. The fall during May to June 2013 was the first when the pair had tried to break this support but could not sustain. The next slight fall had again found support over this level.

The point to be noted that after that support the price could not touch the high of 156.77. It was unlike the previous cases. The recent fall has again broken that support. This is early to say if the price will sustain but as of now the indications are that it may. This coupled with the fact that after the previous support, the upward gains failed to touch the previous high indicate bearish pressure for the near term.

GBP/JPY and 26 week EMA

GBP/JPY with 26 week EMA

We generally use 22-day EMA as it represents a trading month. But as it happens that the same 22-period EMA tends to work on weekly chart as well. The reason is obvious that traders at times change the time frame from day to week with the dame 22-period days EMA on the chart. But logically the better one is 26-week EMA as it represents half a year or 6 months. The above weekly chart is showing that during the previous falls the support had come well over 26-week EMA. This time the price action is touching and testing this support level. This also indicates a break of the support pattern and hence reflects bearish sentiments.

What can we expect?

GBP/JPY and support levels

148.20 is current 26-week EMA. A break below 148.20 will be the second sign of much deeper consolidations but a better sign will be by a decisive break of 147.80. Such a move will open the doors for a much awaited consolidation towards the 38.2% retracement level i.e towards 143.04.

Please note that even if such a move takes place, a good support would be expected by the psychological 145.00 level.

The interesting point to note here that the 38.2% retracement support is not alone at that level. The 52 week (1 year) EMA is also coinciding with it near that level. On one hand, with deeper consolidations, this combination would prove to be a very strong support but on the other hand these coinciding levels would have a pull for the price action to consolidate towards this level.

We are bearish for GBP/JPY the near-term and expect such deeper moves sooner or later.

Subsequent Update at August 1, 2013 at 07:41 GMT

GBPJPY double bottom pattern

Please check the double bottom pattern formed on the hourly chart above. This pattern may bring some more upward consolidation towards the psychological level of 150.00 before another fall takes place.

Update on Sunday, August 4th, 2013

GBPJPY resistance

The upward gains extended beyond 150.00 after the support came near 200-day moving average. As indicated in the above chart, resistance is still expected below 152.00 but a decisive break over that will indicate a neat-term bottoming.

You may also like to check GBPJPY weekly outlook and the daily analysis of GBPJPY.

GBP/USD’s Struggle Against 200-Day Moving Average

July 28, 2013 in Chart Alert

For GBP/USD the resistances of the 61.8% retracement and 200-day moving average were joining the forces as we had mentioned in this chart alert during the last weekend.

The pair ultimately broke both these resistances by moving as high as 1.5435 but the current price action is still struggling around these resistances. Even if a decisive break of these takes place, the pair seems to have resistances at each step.

Let the following chart talk about the same instead of the words:

GBP/USD and the resistances at each step

GBP/USD struggling against 200-day moving average

You may also like to check GBP/USD weekly predictions and GBP/USD daily analysis.

Please do leave your comments in the comment box below to discuss the price action further.

EUR/JPY In Support Zone – Forex Chart Alert

July 27, 2013 in Chart Alert

On one hand the strong fall of EUR/JPY to 130.08 suggests further consolidation bit on the other hand the price action is in a support zone. These support zone combined with the psychological support of 130.00 may prove to be strong and hence a cautious approach of waiting and watching is required till a break does not take place.

Instead of using words, let the charts talk about these support and resistance levels.

EUR/JPY and 200-period SMA on 4-hourly chart

EUR/JPY - 200 period support on 4 hourly chart

EUR/JPY and short-term trend line support (daily chart)

EUR/JPY near trend line support

EUR/JPY and 22-week EMA support (weekly chart)

EURJPY- support near 22 week EMA

You may also like to check the EUR/JPY weekly predictions which are updated weekly and the EUR/JPY daily analysis.

Do leave your comments to discuss it further in the comments box. below.

USD/JPY’s Bearish Break – Forex Chart Alert

July 27, 2013 in Chart Alert

USD/JPY, once again, failed to sustain over 100.00 and fell. Not only that but it broke below 98.23 and that casts some bearish shadows for short-term. The questions now are, will the consolidation see some more depths or not and if yes then to what levels? Let’s just see what do the charts say about it.

USD/JPY and 200 day moving average

USDJPY and 200 day moving average

Longer-term view against 200-day moving average

USDJPY with 200 day SMA - longer term

USD/JPY and retracement levels (weekly chart)

USDJPY retracement levels

Expected Resistances (4-hourly chart)

USDJPY- expected resistances

You may also like to check the USD/JPY predictions which are updated weekly and the USD/JPY daily analysis.

Do leave your comments to discuss it further in the comments box below.

GBP/USD At 200-Day Moving Average

July 22, 2013 in Chart Alert

GBP/USD touched 1.5384 and found some resistance to get back to 1.5360. Please note that the pair had almost touched the 200-day moving average by doing so.

GBP/USD finding resistance near 200-day moving average 

GBPUSD finding resistance at 200 day moving average

Please check this previous chart alert where we had mentioned that the approaching resistance level may prove to be quite strong because of the following factors:

1) 200-day moving average at 1.5391

2) 61.8% retracement of the downward move from 1.5751 to 1.4813 at 1.5392.

GBP/USD near the combined resistances

GBP/USD near the combined resistance

Once again the longer-term view of GBPUSD with 200-day SMA

GBP/USD and 200 day moving average

What if these resistance do not hold

Please check the above mentioned chart alert which indicates the  resistances which are beyond the current ones, in case these resistances do not hold.

You may also like to check the weekly GBP/USD predictions and the daily analysis of GBP/USD.

Will GBP/USD Sustain The Upward Climb?

July 20, 2013 in Chart Alert

After some struggle against the 55-day EMA, GBP/USD ultimately broke that resistance and closed above it. The high of this upward move was 1.5282.

GBP/USD retracements and 55-day EMA

GBP/USD 55 day EMA with Fibonacci retracements

Isn’t it interesting that this high where some resistance was seen was also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the downward move from 1.5751 to 1.4813? Not only this level brings in the resistance of the 50% retracement but is also slightly below 1.5304 which had proved to be a strong resistance earlier.

But what if both these resistances are broken?

GBP/USD retracements and 200-day SMA

GBP/USD 200 day SMA with Fibonacci retracements

 

If both these resistances are broken then the next level will have the combined forces of the resistance of 61.8% retracement and the 200-day moving average. The current 200-day SMA is at 1.5404 i.e. just 22 pips above the 61.8% retracement level.

Longer view of the price action w.r.t. the 200-day moving average 

GBP/USD and 200 day moving average

You may also like to check GBPUSD weekly outlook and GBPUSD daily analysis.

Please leave your comments in the comment box below.

Bullish GBP/JPY Against Bullish Resistances

July 20, 2013 in Chart Alert

GBP/JPY had maintained the support pattern which has been in place for past 10 months i.e. since mid-September 2012. The pair has been finding support near 22-week EMA during any fall since then. The recent loss of upward momentum and the resulting volatile sideways moves kept finding support yet again at that level. At last the currency pair broke out of the range and moved up strongly.

GBP/JPY and 22-week EMA

GBP/JPY and 22 week EMA

Not only the fact that the support pattern was again followed but the break over 153.02 indicate the bullish sentiments but let’s see what lies ahead.

GBP/JPY and the obstacles ahead

GBP/JPY and obstacles ahead

 

As clear from the above daily chart that though the bullish sentiments have been reconfirmed but a cautious approach is needed as the pair is up against some strong resistance zone.

Please do also check the Forecast of GBP/JPY updated weekly and GBP/JPY daily analysis and please do leave your comments so that the price action can be discussed further.

AUD/JPY And The Multiple Resistances – Forex Chart Observations

July 20, 2013 in Chart Alert

After the interest rate cut AUD/JPY had a free fall. The pair had fallen from 105.43 to as low as 88.93. The break below 90.00 psychological level had made the bearish outlook very strong but a good support was witnessed there. After such a big fall some consolidation towards 38.2% retracement is quite natural and hence a move towards 95.12 can not be ignored but let’s see what are the resistances on the way.

AUD/JPY and retracement levels

AUD/JPY and retracement levels

The biggest resistance is the psychological level of 95.00 itself. But let’s see what are the resistances before such a move may take place.

The pair seems to be struggling against 55-day EMA. Not even breaking above it, AUDJPY has not been able to touch it. The resistance was faced well below this when a jump to 93.07 had taken place. The current price action is again hesitating below 55-day EMA.

Resistances

AUDJPY against 55 day EMA resistance

Even if this resistance is overcome the other resistances as mentioned in the above chart may prove to be big obstacles and considering this even the minor 38.2% consolidation remains as a big challenge, at least as of now.

You may also like to check AUD/JPY’s weekly forecast and the daily analysis of AUD/JPY.

EURUSD Remains Confused

July 20, 2013 in Chart Alert

Last week we had mentioned that EUR/USD is up against the against joint resistances of 200-day moving average and Ichimoku cloud’s upper edge. Please check the previous post here. The situation remains same and here are the current observations.

Resistance of 61.8% retracement level

EURUSD and retracement levels

EURUSD has been trying to break above the 61.8% retracement level of the downward move from 1.3417 to 1.2755 but has not been able to sustain. The support has been coming near the 38.2% retracement and resistance near 61.8% level.

EUR/USD and daily Ichimoku cloud

EUR/USD and daily Ichimoku cloud

The price action has been mainly within the Ichimoku cloud and the cloud has been thinning down. The resistance is continuously faced near  the upper edge. It shows a clear lack of direction but on the other side indicates a strong breakout can be expected any time.

EUR/USD and 200-day moving average

EUR/USD around 200 day moving average

The price action has been around 200-day moving average and the pair has not been able to sustain on either side. Clearly a decisive break below 1.2993 or above 1.3207 is required to expect any directional move.

You may also like to check weekly forecast of EUR/USD and the EUR/USD’s daily analysis.

Do leave your comments in the comment box below.

Is The Honeymoon Over For USD/JPY?

July 14, 2013 in Chart Alert

We had discussed some of the supports and resistances in this previous chart alert of USD/JPY. As we had indicated, once the resistances were taken out, the pair had moved up not only to test 100.00 but went as high as 101.53. However the upward moves could not sustain and the subsequent fall took the pair to as low as 98.23. The current price action is around 55-day EMA.

Will the fall continue or not is the big question now. As we had indicated in the above mentioned previous chart alert, 200-day moving average has been acting as support and we would expect a strong support near that even if further downward moves take place. The current 200-day moving average is at 95.56.

USD/JPY with 55-day EMA and 200-Day SMA

USDJPY with 55 day EMA and 200 day SMA

You may also like to check the weekly forecast of USD/JPY and USD/JPY daily analysis.

EUR/USD Against Two Resistances – Forex Chart Alerts

July 13, 2013 in Chart Alert

EUR/USD had a very strong upward jump during last week when the pair moved up from 1.2755 to 1.3207 i.e. 452 pips in a matter of a single day. This move broke above the 200-day moving average resistance but could not sustain and the price action fell below this resistance once again. Please check this previous chart alert for EUR/USD regarding this.

EUR/USD and 200-day moving average

EURUSD falls below 200 day moving average again

As we see that a decisive break over 1.3121 is needed once again to indicate that this resistance has been overcome.

Not only the 200-day moving average but we may need to keep an eye on the daily Ichimoku cloud also. The last week’s resistance also came just below the upper edge level of the daily Ichimoku cloud. Please note that the price action is no more within the cloud but fell below the cloud once again.

EUR/USD with daily Ichimoku cloud

EUR/USD with daily Ichimoku cloud

While the above chart indicates that any decisive break over 1.3230 will be the end of this resistance but the story does not end there. Quite interestingly the resistance was also below the weekly Ichimoku cloud and till a break of 1.3300 resistance takes place we need to consider any upward gains just as a consolidation and not reversal of any kind.

EUR/USD with weekly Ichimoku cloud

EURUSD with weekly Ichimoku cloud

You may also like to check EUR/USD’s weekly forecast and the daily analysis of EUR/USD.

GBP/JPY And 22-Week EMA – Will The Pattern Hold – Forex Chart Alert

June 30, 2013 in Chart Alert

GBP/JPY had once again maintained the pattern of finding support near 22-week EMA. In fact we had predicted as support at 147.11 long before the support was found exactly at that level and the pair jumped from 147.11. Please check the last chart in this old chart alert to check on this.

Let’s also check the following weekly chart of the currency pair.

GBP/JPY and 22-week EMA

GBPJPY and 22 week EMA support

What is stopping the pair now?

GBPJPY and resistance levels

The above daily chart shows the struggle against the 55-day EMA which is the red line. Not only that but there is an emerging short-term resistance trend line. Overall a break above both of these will be the first indication for any gains but overall the break above 151.93 is required as a confirmation.

Update on July 14th, 2013:

With reference to the above, the current chart is as follows and the price action is still above 22-day EMA support:

GBP/JPY still over 22 day EMA

What if the support pattern breaks?

Any decisive break should take GBPJPY down towards 38.2% retracement of the upward gains from 118.79 to 156.77. This level is at 142.26.

GBP/JPY and retracement levels on weekly chart

GBPJPY and retracement levels

 

Please leave your suggestions/comments in the comment box below.

You may also like to check the weekly GBP/JPY forecast and daily GBP/JPY analysis.