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Is EUR/JPY Coming Out of The Reverse Gear?

December 1, 2013 in Chart Alert

How can we not talk about EUR/JPY after we just talked about GBP/JPY. After all the story of EUR/JPY is also not much different even though differences are there. Do also check the update about GBP/JPY.

During September 2008, the pair has seen a volatility of 1295 pips. Yes, September 2008 was a month which had filed itself in the the history of global economy. After all Lehman Brothers  bankruptcy had shaken down the economy for years to come. During the subsequent month EUR/JPY witnessed a volatility of 4607 pips. That kind of volatility is a record in itself. After that great fall the pair had remained in a very volatile sideways range for four months. The subsequent effort for the recovery had failed at 139.23 and then the 3 year long downtrend continued which went up to August 2012. Well, Why are we using the past tense? Has the downtrend already ended? Oops, questions are difficult but then let’s check what the charts are saying?

EUR/JPY monthly chart of past 10 years

EUR/JPY historical chart - 10 years

The first indication for the possibilities of some significant upward gains or even a reversal had come in December 2012 when the price action had broken over the channel which was containing the price inside it for three years and three months. Well, it was something major but not as major as what happened during last week. EUR/JPY very bullishly broke over 139.23. Not only this level had proved to be a strong resistance after the great fall but this also represents the psychological resistance territory of 140.00 level. Last week the pair went as high as 139.71, just shy of 140.00.

What can we expect from EUR/JPY now?

EUR/JPY 10 year chart - ForexAbode

Well, 140.00 can still try to exert its psychological pressure to bring some volatile sideways moves or even some consolidation.  However, the momentum is not showing any slowdown and the pair should at least complete the 61.8% retracement of the fall from 169.98 to 94.12 by targeting 141.00.

The previous resistance is now expected to turn into support and hence if the support in the range of 139.23 holds then it will be an indication for the reversal. In such case a hit to 145.00 should come in handy.

If the support at 139.23 fails then further consolidation may take place towards 135.23 before another recovery effort. We stay bullish for EUR/JPY.

You may also like to check EUR/JPY weekly analysis and also the daily outlook of EUR/JPY. Also do keep an eye of the Forex Daily Dose.

Please share your opinions in the comment box below to discuss the price action further.

Is GBP/JPY Up For Reversal?

December 1, 2013 in Chart Alert

Lehman Brothers had filed for bankruptcy on September 15th, 2008 and during that month GBP/JPY had shown a volatility of 1386 pips with the month’s high as 198.31 and low as 184.45. But then which currency trader can forget the month of October 2008? During that one month GBP/JPY had moved 6101 pips. Such volatility is rare to be seen. The high of the month was 189.93 and the low was 138.92.

Once the subsequent recovery failed at 163.07, the pair had remained in the ongoing downtrend which had started in 2007 till May 2012.  The upward gains which had started since then could have been just considered as a consolidation till the pair broke over 163.07.  The break over 165.00 could be taken as the second milestone and also as the second indication that GBP/JPY might have already bottomed up and may be on it’s way to the reversal. Other interesting thing is that the exact level of 116.84 had given support to GBP/JPY once again in September 2011. The fact that the support had come exactly at 116.84 for the second time also supports the idea that a bottom might already be in place from the longer-term perspective.

What should be the next target?

GBP/JPY 10 year chart - ForexAbode

Well, the momentum is not showing any indication of slowing down. The least what is now expected is a move towards 168.12 which will complete the 38.2% retracement of the long-term downtrend from 251.09 to 116.84. However the momentum also suggests that the pair may not only stop there but may try to take out the psychological resistance of 170.00 next. The previous resistance at 163.07 should now turn into support and if this support holds then who knows that GBP/JPY also manages to knockout 175.00  or more?

EUR/JPY also seems to be running on the same lines. Do check that at: Is EUR/JPY coming out of the reverse gear?

You may also like to check GBP/JPY weekly analysis and also the daily outlook of GBP/JPY. Also do keep an eye of the Forex Daily Dose.

Please share your opinions in the comment box below to discuss the price action further.

GBPUSD broke 4 year old resistance trend line

November 27, 2013 in Chart Alert

Two resistance and support trend lines have been guiding the price action of GBP/USD for past 4 years. We have been mentioning about these for past many months and the previous  update was in this chart alert. Today that history was broken when GBP/USD did not only broke above the resistance of 1.6260 but broke above this 4 year old resistance trend line to touch 1.6303.

The break

GBP/USD breaks over the resistance

Now where?

The next target should be 1.6381. A strong resistance may be faced there but a break over that should lay the red carpet for a test of the next psychological range of 1.6500. GBP/USD has been below that level for over past 2 years. The last effort was during the week of August 21st, 2011 when the pair had failed to sustain over 1.6500 after touching 1.6572

GBP/USD – Will the history repeat?

November 24, 2013 in Chart Alert

For quite some time we have been talking about the long-term resistance and support trend lines for GBP/USD. We have been talking for quite some time because these trend lines have been in place for quite some time and that is over past 4 years. There was a break of the support trend line during February 2013 and after that the GBP/USD support line had turned into resistance but then during the mid-September the pair had come back into the normal range i.e. between these old support and resistance trend lines and has been staying there since then. There have been many efforts to break over the resistance but all failed. Now the pair is once again trying to break over and this time the effort seems to be rather aggressive. Let’s look at the weekly charts as follows:

GBP/USD weekly chart with resistance and support trend lines

GBP/USD - trying to break the resistance

Please note that the above chart is not covering the past 4 years and for that refer to the chart on one of the old updates as per the hyperlink mentioned above.

A closer look of the weekly chart

A closer look of GBP/USD weekly chart

What to expect?

As we mentioned above that the recent attempts to break over this resistance have been very quick and none of the failures has brought any reversals as on the previous occasions. This makes the possibilities of a break quite high this time. A break over the recent 1.6260 would confirm a failure of this trend line resistance and such a move should take GBP/USD towards the next psychological range of 1.6500. However, if another failure takes place at 1.6260 then a drop towards 1.6060 or more can not be ruled out.

Please share your opinions in the comment box below to discuss the price action further.

EUR/JPY – Will The Support Trend of Last One Year Hold?

November 8, 2013 in Chart Alert

During past one year whenever EUR/JPY fell heavily, the support came near 22-week EMA. The recent fall has again brought it to that support zone. Need to see if the support pattern which has been in place for the past one year holds or fails. A failure may result in deeper declines.

EUR/JPY weekly chart of past one year

EUR/JPY near the support level

Aussie – The Artistic Currency

October 19, 2013 in Chart Alert

Many currencies have nick names which are commonly known. My personal nick name which I use privately for the Australian dollar is “The Artistic Currency”.

Artists are supposed to be a bit more sentimental and emotional and yes, our Aussie reacts very fast to even a slight change is the sentiments about the global economy. But the story does not end here. I am not sure if you have noticed or not but please do it when you find some time. The price action of Aussie pairs are generally very artistic too. Many times you will find the price action following perfect geometric shapes. At least the geometric patterns I see the Australian dollar currency pairs to follow are more engaging then most of the other currency pairs.

Aussie – The Artistic Currency

AUD - The Artistic Currency

Aussie – The Half Moon


Well, the first chart was an old chart and I do have a collection of engaging patterns of Aussie. The second half moon chart is the recent or I can say current daily chart.

Will the half moon formation complete?

What to expect with the recent strong jump? Well, I would expect that AUD/USD will not only complete the 50% retracement of the downward move from 1.0582 to 0.8848 which is at 0.9715 but it should try to test the resistance zone of 0.9791 to 0.9842.

Aussie – The Technician

AUD/USD retracement

Well, let’s wait and see if the artist becomes a technician also to finish drawing the half moon by following the price action analysis technically.

Please do leave your comments in the comment box below to share your opinions. You are important for us and your comments are are too.

Is The Honeymoon Over for GBP?

October 5, 2013 in Chart Alert

For last few months we have been referring to the trend-lines which have been in place for past 4 years for GBP/USD. The previous post about the same can be checked at “GBP/USD what to expect – part 2“.

The pair had, at last, broken over the trend line which had turned into a resistance line from a previous support line.

GBP/USD weekly chart

GBP/USD trend lines

After the above mentioned break, the upward moves continued towards the upper trend line which has been an over all resistance trend line. As expected, the resistance came right there and the pair fell sharply.

What to Expect

The price action is above the lower trend-line and a support should come over 1.5440. On fundamental level please check this post about GBP/USD. Considering the debt issues in the U.S. the possibilities of this support is quite high, however, any decisive break below 1.5940/1.5920 will indicate that the upward journey might have already ended and the pair may dive deeper.

Please share your opinions by leaving your comments in the comment box below.

Do also check the weekly GBP/USD forecast and the daily analysis for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD – What To Expect Part 2

September 13, 2013 in Chart Alert

GBP/USD moved exactly as we had predicted in our previous chart alert titled GBP/USD – What to Expect?. In fact it would be better to see that post first.

The pair moved up to 1.5885 which was just 8 pips below the lower range of the resistance zone mentioned in the last and above mentioned update.

This move brought GBP/USD almost at the trend line which was previously the support trend line but later had turned into a resistance trend line.

GBP/USD weekly chart for past 4 years

GBP/USD at the trend line resistance

Let’s see another weekly chart with retracement levels:

GBP/USD broke over the retracement resistance level

As clear by the above chart that a break over 1.5789 had represented a break over 61.8% retracement level of the move from 1.6381 to 1.4831. The pair had failed well ahead this level twice. This break surely indicates the bullish sentiments. However a caution is required considering the trend line resistance as indicated in the first chart.

What to Expect?

Resistance in the 1.5893 to 1.5940 zone is still expected. A break above this should target 1.6000 psychological zone but again a resistance will be expected in 1.6000 to 1.6015 zone.

Please share your opinions in the comment box below to discuss about the GBP/USD price action more.

GBP/USD – Will The Upward Movement Sustain?

August 4, 2013 in Chart Alert

GBP/USD’s recent strong jump raises question about the the overall outlook which has been for deeper consolidations. Please check the previous chart alerts at here and here.

However, the price action is clearly indicating that it has stuck between the psychological 1.5000 and 1.5500 ranges.

GBP/USD’s fear of entering 1.5000 ranges

GBPUSD and psychological support


The above chart clearly shows that even though the pair has tried to enter the 1.5000 ranges time and again, the daily closing was above this psychological level. This clearly indicates that the psychological push of 1.5000 is in place with full force. On the other hand the fear of 1.5500 is also evident.

An extended volatile sideways movement will be expected till any break of this range does not take place.

Please do leave your comments about your opinions for the price action to discuss it further.

You may also like to check the forecast for GBP/JPY and also GBP/JPY’s daily technical analysis.

EURJPY’s Upward Gains With Unanswered Questions – Forex Chart Alert

August 4, 2013 in Chart Alert

Last weekend we had mentioned that EUR/JPY is in a strong support zone and any further decline will depend on the decisive break below 130.00 psychological level.

The break below 130.00 took place and then a strong upward jump was witnessed but that still leaves us with some unanswered questions.

The break below 130.00 was not really decisive. The interesting point here was that whenever that break took place, the daily closing was at or slightly above 130.00.

EUR/JPY and 130.00’s psychological support

EURJPY and psychological 130 level


The above chart indicates the fact that even with a break below 130.00, the psychological aspects of 130.00 supports were well in place.

However, on the other hand the price action candle of Friday indicates that the market is not really convinced about the upward moves. The wide gap between the high of the day and the closing price reflect those mixed sentiments.

Do leave your comments in the comment box below to share your opinions and to discuss the price action further.

You may also like to check EUR/JPY’s weekly predictions and the daily analysis of EUR/JPY.

USD/JPY And The Resistances Ahead – Forex Chart Alert

August 3, 2013 in Chart Alert

In the previous chart alert for USD/JPY we had indicated about the psoobilities for deeper consolidation and also the resistance near 99.40. Well, the pair did consolidate to 97.58 but then recovered strongly to 99.95. The support also seems to be forming a pattern of support over 200-day moving average.

USD/JPY and 200-day moving average

USDJPY - support over the 200 day moving average

The strong jump indicates that the bullish sentiments are still in place and further gains can be expected. However please note that the break over 100.00 is critical because of two reasons:

1) Psychological resistance of 100.00 level.

2) Break over 100.00 will also be a break over the emerging resistance trend line.

USD/JPY and resistance trend line

USDJPY resistance trend line


The weekly chart also indicate that there are mixed up feelings and indecisiveness about the price action.

USD/JPY weekly chart

USDJPY and uncertainty

Considering everything a decisive break over 100.00 followed by a sustained price action above 100.00 is critical to keep the bullish sentiments in place. If the resistances keep on holding then deeper consolidations as indicated in the previous chart alerts can not be ignored.

DO leave your comments and opinions in the comment box below to discuss the price action further.

You may also like to check USD/JPY daily analysis and  the weekly predictions US dollar’s  price action against the yen.

EURUSD’s Indecisiveness – Forex Chart Observation

August 3, 2013 in Chart Alert

In the previous chart alert we had mentioned that EUR/USD remains confused. In the same update we had also mentioned that a break over 1.3206 may bring some directional moves. Well, the break took place and the price action even touched 1.3325 briefly but the confusion still prevails. Even though the moves have been large but overall the price action remains in a sideways mode.

EUR/USD daily chart

EURUSD sideway moves

The above daily chart is clearly showing a lack of direction. Last week’s strong support and the subsequent upward jump indicates the possibilities of further gains but please note that the weekly candle of the last week was a Doji styled candle. This indicated a complete indecisiveness. A Doji candle after 3 weeks’ bullish candle shows that the market sentiments are mixed up about any further gains.

EUR/USD – The confusion prevails

EURUSD weekly Doji candle

Please do leave the comments in the comment box below to discuss the price action further.

You may also like to check EUR/USD’s weekly forecasts and the daily technical analysis of EUR/USD.

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