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FX Daily Dose – December 12, 2013

December 12, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Forex Daily Dose presents a EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, USD/INR, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and AUD/JPY for the immediate and medium-term outlook. Please note that the daily outlook is for current pairs in focus and we may add or remove some of the currency pairs accordingly.

Do not hesitate in contacting us if you wish to know about our view for any specific currency pair.

Currency pair

Near-term Outlook

Comments – Overall Outlook

USD/JPY

bullish USD/JPY had found support just over 22-day EMA during the previous fall on during December 3rd to 5th. The same pattern continued this time when the support came again just above the 22-day EMA. The continuity of this pattern makes the case for further gains but the first indication of that would come with any decisive break above 102.81/102.94 resistance zone. We are staying neutral till a break of this resistance zone takes place. If such a move takes place then a retest of 103.37/103.39 will be expected. A break above that may take the pair to target the strong resistance of 103.73. On the downside any failure of 102.15 support will turn the focus downward for a retest of 101.61 or below.

EUR/USD

bullish EUR/USD had briefly touched 1.3810 but since then resistance is maintained below 1.3800. This is the only factor which is neutralizing the immediate bullish outlook but still we remain in favor of some more gains as long as the support in the range of 1.3740 to 1.3755 holds.  With this support holding a retest of 1.3832 and then possibly further gains towards 1.3858 will be expected. Any failure of this support should bring a stronger support in the range of 1.3705 to 1.3721.

USD/CAD

Bearish USD/CAD has been moving exactly as we had mentioned during the previous update. We had indicated that we expected a break below 1.0622 and then a move towards a stronger support range of 1.0580 to 1.0590. The price has touched 1.0580. Now we expect that even the support of 1.0580 may fail and further drop towards 1.0555/1.0559 should take place. In fact the fall may even get extended to 1.0525. This outlook for further downward consolidation will remain in place as long as the price action finds resistance at 1.0620.

CAD/JPY

bullish CAD/JPY had dropped strongly and had broken the support of 96.93 but found a very strong support at 96.30 and recovered to 97.05. We remain in the favor of further gains for a retest of 97.27 first and then possibly the resistance zone of 97.48 to 97.66 of September 19th and July 24th respectively. However, considering the fact that the pair is in a very strong resistance zone and had not sustain above 97.09 even after breaking over it, we will be cautious. On the downside the support should hold over 96.30 but any failure of that support will turn the focus downwards towards 95.80 first.

GBP/USD

Neutral GBP/USD had broken both the support levels which we had mentioned during the previous update. However further recovery is expected as long as support holds at or above 1.6293. However any failure of that support may bring further consolidation towards 1.6210 to 1.6220 range. We stay neutral initially though we expect a test of 1.6500 sooner or later, probably sooner.

EUR/GBP

bullish EUR/GBP had hit the target (0.8415 to 0.8425 range) we had indicated during the previous update. The pair touched 0.8431before a slight drop to 0.8418. We now expect some more upward consolidation towards 0.8455/0.8460. This outlook will be intact as long as the support in the range of 0.8380 to 0.8390 holds. In case this support fails then another support will be expected at 0.8350. However in case of further upward moves, we will expect a very strong resistance below 0.8480 because of the approaching 85.00 psychological level.

EUR/AUD

bullish EUR/AUD did not only hit the 1.5235 target which we had indicated during the previous update but went as high as 1.5306. The outlook stays bullish and we, now expect a further gains towards 1.5420 first and possibly a retest of 1.5462 of May 2010. On the downside the first level of support is expected at 1.5180. In case that support fails then further consolidation towards 1.5140 or more will be expected.

USD/INR

Neutral USD/INR hit the target of 61.40 resistance which we had indicated during the previous update. The pair went as high as 61.58 before finding the resistance below the second level of the resistance mentioned in the previous update i.e. 61.70. We stay neutral till there is no break of the support at 61.11 and resistance in the range of 61.66/ 61.70. Overall we remain in the favor of further drop and the only thing which is sustaining USD/JPY from further downward consolidation is the psychological support of 60.00.

Check previous entries of FxDailyDose (The short URL, for your convenience, is http://bit.ly/FXDailyDose).

You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:

Daily Analysis:

  1. EUR/USD daily analysis
  2. USD/JPY daily analysis
  3. GBP/USD daily analysis
  4. USD/CHF daily analysis
  5. AUD/USD daily analysis
  6. EUR/JPY daily analysis
  7. GBP/JPY daily analysis
  8. AUD/JPY daily analysis

Weekly Forex outlook

  1. EUR/USD outlook
  2. USD/JPY outlook
  3. GBP/USD outlook
  4. USD/CHF outlook
  5. AUD/USD outlook
  6. EUR/JPY outlook
  7. GBP/JPY outlook
  8. AUD/JPY outlook

FX Daily Dose – December 10, 2013

December 10, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Forex Daily Dose presents a EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, USD/INR, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and AUD/JPY for the immediate and medium-term outlook. Please note that the daily outlook is for current pairs in focus and we may add or remove some of the currency pairs accordingly.

Do not hesitate in contacting us if you wish to know about our view for any specific currency pair.

Currency pair

Near-term Outlook

Comments – Overall Outlook

USD/JPY

bullish USD/JPY has tried to break over 103.37 resistance by touching 103.39. This suggests that we can expect further gains towards 103.73 resistance. With any failure of 103.73 resistance, USD/JPY may target 104.10/104/20 also. The support is now expected at the previous resistance of 102.84 and any break below that will indicate a short-term topping and may bring some consolidation towards 102.32 before another recovery.

EUR/USD

Neutral EUR/USD moved as we had indicate in yesterday’s update. The pair went up to 1.3768 which was 2 pips below the target range indicated yesterday. We still expect resistance in the range of 1.3770/1.3785 next. If the resistance holds then some consolidation towards 1.3715/1.3720 should take place. In case this support fails then consolidation towards 1.3618 may take place.

USD/CAD

Bearish USD/CAD is very close to the support of 1.0622 which we had indicated yesterday. However we expect a failure of that support. The outlook remains same as yesterday that a failure of 1.0622 support should find a strong support in the range of 1.0580 to 1.0590. With these supports holding, any break above 1.0666 should target 1.0700 or more.

CAD/JPY

bullish CAD/JPY moved the way we had indicated yesterday and after touching retesting 97.09 it went as high as 97.27. If support at 96.93 holds then further gains are expected towards the resistance zone of 97.48 to 97.66 of September 19th and July 24th respectively. This is not expected today but any decisive break over 97.66 should bring further gains to target 98.60. If the support at 96.93 fails then second level support should come in the range of 96.60 to 96.70.

GBP/USD

bullish The first level of support is expected over 1.6419 and with that we expect GBP/USD to test 1.6500 now. In case the support at 1.6419 fails then another stronger support should come in the range of 1.6380 to 1.6385.

EUR/GBP

Neutral EUR/GBP dropped to 0.8353 with the resistance at 55-day EMA. Further drop towards 0.8315 or even more may take place but the current price is finding support at 22-day EMA and we stay neutral till there is any break below 0.8347. However if the support over 0.8347 holds then a retest of 0.8395 will be expected. A break over 0.8395 should target 0.8415 to 0.8425 next. Our overall outlook stays bearish but we are neutral initially.

EUR/AUD

bullish If support holds in the range of 1.5073 to 1.5085  holds then EUR/AUD should target a retest 1.5163 now and then possibly 1.5235. Our immediate outlook stays bullish for EUR/AUD and that will neutralize only if the price action breaks below 1.5007.

USD/INR

Neutral USD/INR found support at 60.64 which was in line with what we had indicated that support at or over 60.54 may prove to be critical. Further gains towards 61.40 resistance may take place. Even if that resistance fails, we will expect a very strong resistance at or below 61.70. We stay neutral initially. Overall we remain in the favor of further drop and the only thing which is sustaining USD/JPY from further downward consolidation is the psychological support of 60.00.

Check previous entries of FxDailyDose (The short URL, for your convenience, is http://bit.ly/FXDailyDose).

You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:

Daily Analysis:

  1. EUR/USD daily analysis
  2. USD/JPY daily analysis
  3. GBP/USD daily analysis
  4. USD/CHF daily analysis
  5. AUD/USD daily analysis
  6. EUR/JPY daily analysis
  7. GBP/JPY daily analysis
  8. AUD/JPY daily analysis

Weekly Forex outlook

  1. EUR/USD outlook
  2. USD/JPY outlook
  3. GBP/USD outlook
  4. USD/CHF outlook
  5. AUD/USD outlook
  6. EUR/JPY outlook
  7. GBP/JPY outlook
  8. AUD/JPY outlook

FX Daily Dose – December 9, 2013

December 9, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Forex Daily Dose presents a EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, USD/INR, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and AUD/JPY for the immediate and medium-term outlook. Please note that the daily outlook is for current pairs in focus and we may add or remove some of the currency pairs accordingly.

Do not hesitate in contacting us if you wish to know about our view for any specific currency pair.

Currency pair

Near-term Outlook

Comments – Overall Outlook

USD/JPY

Neutral USD/JPY had fallen strongly from 103.37 and then found strong support at 101.62. The support indicates the underlying bullish sentiments but the previous resistance below 103.73 and the current sideways price action are calling to exercise caution. Considering these the immediate outlook stays neutral even though the overall outlook stays bullish. If support holds above 102.32 and a break over 103.37 takes place then a retest of 103.73 will be expected. With any failure of 103.73 resistance, USD/JPY may target 104.10/104/20 also. However if the resistance continues below 103.37 then a 102.32 support fails then deeper consolidations cannot be ruled out.

EUR/USD

Neutral EUR/USD touched 1.3721 during the Asian session when the markets opened on Monday. Since then the pair had fallen into a narrow sideways range below 1.3714. The narrow range is clearly indicating the possibilities of a breakout soon. However the current price action is keeping the immediate outlook neutral. A break over 1.3721 should make the pair to target 1.3770/1.3785 next. However if the resistance holds then some consolidation towards 1.3615/1.3620 may take place.

USD/CAD

bullish USD/CAD has gone been in a sideways mode since the markets opened today i.e. Monday, however if support over 1.0622 holds and a break over 1.0666 takes place then further gains towards 1.0700 or more are expected. In case the support at 1.0622 fails then a strong support will be expected in the range of 1.0580 to 1.0590.

CAD/JPY

Neutral If support holds at 96.60 then a retest of 97.09 will be expected. However the resistance below 97.11, which we had mentioned during the last update is keeping us neutral initially, though the overall outlook is still mildly bullish. For the overall view please check the previous update of November 29th. Any break below 96.60 may bring further consolidation towards 96.20 or more.

GBP/USD

Neutral The overall outlook stays bullish for GBP/USD and we expect a test of the psychological level of 1.6500 sooner and not so quite later. However, considering the resistance faced at 1.6443 which was well below 1.6500, we stay neutral initially. Any break below 1.6293 support may bring some deeper consolidation before a recovery.

EUR/GBP

Neutral EUR/GBP is facing resistance near 55-day EMA. If that holds the it will indicate the end of the upward consolidation and that should result in drop towards 0.8315 or more. Even if the resistance of 55-day EMA fails and the pair breaks above the recent 0.8395, a strong resistance is expected in the range of 0.8415 to 0.8425. Our overall outlook stays bearish but we are neutral initially.

EUR/AUD

bullish If support holds at or above 1.5017 then EUR/AUD should move further upwards to retest 1.5163 and then possibly towards 1.5235. Our immediate outlook stays bullish for EUR/AUD.

USD/INR

Neutral USD/INR moved the way we had indicated during the last update and even broke the support of 61.50 to go as low as 60.64. We expect some more weakness in the near term but support at 60.54 may prove to be critical and hence our immediate outlook is neutral for USD/INR. We will also repeat what we have been mentioning previously that USD/INR is stuck between the psychological levels of 60.00 and 65.00 after failing to test 70.00. Note: Within next 6 months we expect a break below 60.00 to test 58.74/58.80 level.

Check previous entries of FxDailyDose (The short URL, for your convenience, is http://bit.ly/FXDailyDose).

You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:

Daily Analysis:

  1. EUR/USD daily analysis
  2. USD/JPY daily analysis
  3. GBP/USD daily analysis
  4. USD/CHF daily analysis
  5. AUD/USD daily analysis
  6. EUR/JPY daily analysis
  7. GBP/JPY daily analysis
  8. AUD/JPY daily analysis

Weekly Forex outlook

  1. EUR/USD outlook
  2. USD/JPY outlook
  3. GBP/USD outlook
  4. USD/CHF outlook
  5. AUD/USD outlook
  6. EUR/JPY outlook
  7. GBP/JPY outlook
  8. AUD/JPY outlook

FXDailyDose – November 29, 2013

November 29, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair

Near-term Outlook

Comments – Overall Outlook

USD/JPY

bullish USD/JPY crossed the target of 102.52 which we had indicated yesterday and touched 102.61 before losing some momentum and slightly retreating to 102.11. The current sideways action should find support at 101.93. In case that support breaks then some more consolidation may come towards the support zone of 101.15 to 101.43. Overall the remains bullish and in case of a break over 102.61 the pair should target , first 102.88 resistance and then possibly the recent peak of 103.73.

EUR/USD

bullish The outlook for EUR/USD stays bullish but resistance is expected to continue for some time at 1.3620. First level of support is expected at 1.3580 and if this support holds and a break over 1.3620 takes place then the pair should target 1.3680/1.3688 resistance. In case the support at 1.3580 fails then some more downward consolidation would be expected first towards 1.3555 to 1.3568 support zone. Any break below 1.3555 will make the short-term outlook neutral but the overall outlook will stay bullish as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.3490.

USD/CAD

bullish USD/CAD’s price action is indicating a strong psychological resistance of 1.0600 level. The effort to break over that failed just a couple of pips above this resistance. If this resistance continues and a break below 1.0571 support takes place then some more downward consolidation towards the next support zone of 1.0520 to 1.0531 will be expected. Overall outlook for USD/CAD stays mildly bullish for further gains towards 1.0657 to 1.0673 resistance zone but a cautious approach is required as the pair is in a historical resistance zone. The quote from the past updates which stands good today also is: “During August 2010 the pair had faced a strong resistance at 1.0673 and from there it had fallen strongly first to 0.9445 and then to 0.9406. The next peak was at 1.0657 during October 2011 and that too had proven to be a very strong resistance. The pair had some bumpy ride after that before falling to 0.9633. The next resistance was faced at 1.0609 during July 2013.”

CAD/JPY

bullish CAD/JPY went further up to touch 96.83 and found some resistance before recovering to 96.70. A little caution is required as we have mentioning in past two updates that the resistance at 96.86 is critical. The outlook stays bullish and we expect a break over 96.86 now. With break over 96.86 further upward gains should come towards 97.11 first and then possibly 97.48 to 97.66 resistance zone of September 19th and July 24th respectively. This is not expected today but any decisive break over 97.66 should bring further gains to target 98.60. On the down side the first support is expected at 96.13 and even a break of that should find a strong support at 95.90. In case a break below 95.90 take place then the short-term outlook will become neutral but overall sentiments will be bullish as long as the price action stays above 95.00.

GBP/USD

bullish Yesterday we had indicated that GBP/USD should now target the resistance of 1.6381. The resistance was faced 7 pips below that at 1.6374. We stay bullish for GBP/USD and if the support at 1.6255 holds then a break over 1.6381 should target 1.6500 ranges. However the resistance near 1.6381 may prove to be critical and caution is required. Overall as long as the price stays above 1.6138, the outlook will stay bullish, however, if the resistance mentioned above continues to hold then deeper consolidations and even a reversal cannot be ignored.

EUR/GBP

Bearish EUR/GBP went to 0.8344 before finding some resistance. Our outlook stays same as what we had mentioned yesterday and we will quote that again: The overall outlook had been bearish but now the short-term outlook, which had turned to neutral, has also become bearish. However we shall wait for a break below 0.8316/0.8300 support zone as a confirmation for further fall. Any decisive break below 0.8300 should take EUR/GBP towards 0.8225 to 0.8240 support zone or more. On the upside resistance is now expected at 0.8390. Any break above that will turn the short-term outlook to neutral once again.

EUR/AUD

bullish EUR/AUD went further up to 1.5031 as we had indicated yesterday. The bullish sentiments are clearly in picture but our immediate outlook stays neutral. As we had mentioned yesterday that any attempt to sustain over 1.5000 have been falling since June 2010. The first attempt had failed in June 2010 at 1.5015 and after the pair had gone into a downtrend to go as low as 1.1605. The second attempt had failed at 1.4994 and the third at 1.5031. However any decisive break over 1.05031 should open the doors for 1.5220/1.5255 resistance. On the downside first level of support will be expected at 1.4843 but any break of that should bring further consolidation towards 1.4709 to 1.04715 support zone.

USD/INR

Neutral USD/INR is moving in a very narrow sideways range for past 6 days. There is no change in our view about USD/INR and our outlook stays same as what we have been mentioning for past 2 days. To repeat the same: “Resistance is expected below 63.02 and with that some deeper moves may come, however as long as USD/INR remains between the support of 61.71 and resistance of 63.02, our outlook stays neutral. In fact even a break below 61.71 will be expected to come up against a very strong support at 61.50. As we have been mentioning that USD/INR is stuck between the psychological levels of 60.00 and 65.00 after failing to test 70.00. Note: Within next 6 months we expect a break below 60.00 to test 58.74/58.80 level.”

Check previous entries of FxDailyDose.

You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:

Daily Analysis:

  1. EUR/USD daily analysis
  2. USD/JPY daily analysis
  3. GBP/USD daily analysis
  4. USD/CHF daily analysis
  5. AUD/USD daily analysis
  6. EUR/JPY daily analysis
  7. GBP/JPY daily analysis
  8. AUD/JPY daily analysis

Weekly Forex outlook

  1. EUR/USD outlook
  2. USD/JPY outlook
  3. GBP/USD outlook
  4. USD/CHF outlook
  5. AUD/USD outlook
  6. EUR/JPY outlook
  7. GBP/JPY outlook
  8. AUD/JPY outlook

FXDailyDose – November 28, 2013

November 28, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair

Near-term Outlook

Comments – Overall Outlook

USD/JPY

bullish Yesterday we had indicated a move towards 102.30 to 102.50 resistance. USD/JPY has gone as high as 102.27 before finding some resistance but recovering again to 102.23. We still expect some more gains. If the pair breaks over 102.30 then it should target 102.48/102.52 range. This range had caused a strong resistance on May 28th and 29th and hence a caution will be required there. In case there is a decisive break over 102.52 then USD/JPY should target, first 102.88 resistance and then possibly the recent peak of 103.73.

EUR/USD

bullish Our outlooks for EUR/USD stays same as what we had mentioned in yesterday’s FXDailyDose. The pair had already touched 1.3613 and we, now, expect it to target 1.3680/1.3688 resistance. On the downside the first support is now expected at 1.3559. Any break of that may bring further consolidation towards the support range of 1.3518 to 1.3521 before a recovery from there. Overall outlook will stay bullish as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.3490.

USD/CAD

Neutral USD/CAD had broken over the 1.0583/1.0585 resistance to go as high as 1.0603 before losing some momentum. There is no change in our outlook from what we have been indicating for past couple of days. The overall outlook is mildly bullish but considering the fact that the pair is near some very strong resistance zone, a strong caution is required. The first support is now expected in the range of 1.0531 to 1.0550. With this support USD/CAD should target the strong resistance of 1.0609 first and maybe 1.0640 next. We will repeat what we have been indicating in the previous updates as ” During August 2010 the pair had faced a strong resistance at 1.0673 and from there it had fallen strongly first to 0.9445 and then to 0.9406. The next peak was at 1.0657 during October 2011 and that too had proven to be a very strong resistance. The pair had some bumpy ride after that before falling to 0.9633. The next resistance was faced at 1.0609 during July 2013.”

CAD/JPY

bullish CAD/JPY touched 96.68 and found some resistance. The pair again recovered strongly to 96.67. We expect some more upward moves but as we had mentioned yesterday that a strong resistance may come near 96.86. The current price action is quite close to that resistance and our views remain unchanged. We will quote from yesterday’s update – ” we wish to mention that the current price action is near a strong resistance zone and caution is required for any long position. Even though the overall outlook is mildly bullish but resistance is expected near 96.86 and even if there is a break above 96.86, a strong resistance should come at 97.11. On the downside any decisive break below the recent 95.90 may cause further consolidation towards 95.42. However as long as the price action stays above 95.00, the overall outlook will remain on positive side.”

GBP/USD

bullish GBP/USD broke over the resistance trend line which has been in place for over 4 years. It clearly indicates strong bullish sentiments and further upward moves are strongly expected. Till now the pair has touched the peak of 1.6346 and now the focus is 1.6381 resistance and with any break of that towards the psychological resistance of 1.6500 ranges. On the downside we expect support to hold in the range of 1.6220 to 1.6240. Any break below that may bring some more consolidation but as long as the price stays above 1.6138, the outlook will stay bullish.

EUR/GBP

Bearish EUR/GBP fell strongly to 0.8320. The overall outlook had been bearish but now the short-term outlook, which had turned to neutral, has also become bearish. However we shall wait for a break below 0.8316/0.8300 support zone as a confirmation for further fall. Any decisive break below 0.8300 should take EUR/GBP towards 0.8225 to 0.8240 support zone or more. On the upside resistance is now expected at 0.8390. Any break above that will turn the short-term outlook to neutral once again.

EUR/AUD

bullish Yesterday we had indicated the possibilities of a move towards 1.0460 and then possibly towards 1.5020/1.5030. EUR/AUD moved that way to go as high as 1.0490 before losing some momentum. Our outlook remains unchanged from yesterday i.e. further gains towards 1.5020/1.5030 should take place, however considering the psychological resistance of the approaching 1.5000 level we need to be cautious as any attempt to sustain over this level have been falling since June 2010. The first attempt had failed in June 2010 at 1.5015 and after the pair had gone into a downtrend to go as low as 1.1605. The second attempt had failed at 1.4994 and the third at 1.5031. However any decisive break over 1.05031 should open the doors for 1.5220/1.5255 resistance.

USD/INR

Neutral There is no change in our view about USD/INR and our outlook stays same as what we have been mentioning for past 2 days. To repeat the same: “Resistance is expected below 63.02 and with that some deeper moves may come, however as long as USD/INR remains between the support of 61.71 and resistance of 63.02, our outlook stays neutral. In fact even a break below 61.71 will be expected to come up against a very strong support at 61.50. As we have been mentioning that USD/INR is stuck between the psychological levels of 60.00 and 65.00 after failing to test 70.00. Note: Within next 6 months we expect a break below 60.00 to test 58.74/58.80 level.”

Check previous entries of FxDailyDose.

You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:

Daily Analysis:

  1. EUR/USD daily analysis
  2. USD/JPY daily analysis
  3. GBP/USD daily analysis
  4. USD/CHF daily analysis
  5. AUD/USD daily analysis
  6. EUR/JPY daily analysis
  7. GBP/JPY daily analysis
  8. AUD/JPY daily analysis

Weekly Forex outlook

  1. EUR/USD outlook
  2. USD/JPY outlook
  3. GBP/USD outlook
  4. USD/CHF outlook
  5. AUD/USD outlook
  6. EUR/JPY outlook
  7. GBP/JPY outlook
  8. AUD/JPY outlook

FXDailyDose – November 27, 2013

November 27, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair

Near-term Outlook

Comments – Overall Outlook

USD/JPY

bullish For past 2 days we have been mentioning that support for USD/JPY should hold in the range of 101.10 to 101.35. The first dip had found support at 101.33 and the second at 101.15. With the support holding well inside 101.00 ranges, our outlook stays exactly what it has been for past 2 days. Though initially we stay neutral but the overall outlook stays bullish and with support in the indicated range we expect further gains towards 102.30 to 102.50. On the upside the next critical resistance is 101.74 and a break over that will support the above mentioned view. On the other hand any break below 101.10 should bring further consolidation towards 100.40/100.50 and a jump from there.

EUR/USD

bullish EUR/USD’s break over 1.3580 resistance confirms the bullish sentiments. As we had mentioned in yesterday’s update, the focus will now be for further gains towards 1.3680/1.3688 resistance. On the downside the first support will be expected in the range of 1.3518 to 1.3521 and a break below this will start making the immediate outlook slightly neutral but in such case also a strong support should hold at 1.3399. In case a break below 1.3399 takes place then the focus will turn back towards downside, first towards 1.3345 support and then possibly for a retest of 1.3294.

USD/CAD

Neutral USD/CAD lost momentum after touching 1.0583. The pair has fallen into a volatile sideways mode between 1.0514 and 1.0583. The short-term outlook is neutral but the price action is indicating that 1.0500 is now acting as psychological support. As long as this support holds, the overall outlook stays mildly bullish. However if a break of 1.0514 support takes place though a support at 1.0500 is expected but such a move will increase the possibilities of a break of this psychological support. In such case USD/CAD should target the minor support at 1.0485 first and then possibly 1.0436. A cautious approach is required for any trading position because the current price action is near a very strong resistance zone. On the upside any break over 1.0583/1.0585 resistance should target 1.0609 next. We will again quote what we have been saying for past 2 days: ” In case USD/CAD manages a break over 1.0609 then it should target 1.0640 next. We also wish to mention the historical price action which shows that the pair is in a strong resistance zone. During August 2010 the pair had faced a strong resistance at 1.0673 and from there it had fallen strongly first to 0.9445 and then to 0.9406. The next peak was at 1.0657 during October 2011 and that too had proven to be a very strong resistance. The pair had some bumpy ride after that before falling to 0.9633. The next resistance was faced at 1.0609 during July 2013.”

CAD/JPY

Neutral CAD/JPY has gone into a sideways mode between the previous support of 95.70 and 96.52. As the support is holding well over the psychological level of 95.00, the overall outlook stays positive even though the short term outlook is neutral. While saying this we wish to mention that the current price action is near a strong resistance zone and caution is required for any long position. Even though the overall outlook is mildly bullish but resistance is expected near 96.86 and even if there is a break above 96.86, a strong resistance should come at 97.11. On the downside any decisive break below the recent 95.90 may cause further consolidation towards 95.42. However as long as the price action stays above 95.00, the overall outlook will remain on positive side.

GBP/USD

Neutral Since last week GBP/USD has been finding support well over the psychological 1.6000 level. During past 9 days the closest it has gone to that level was 1.6059. The recent two supports came at 1.6133 and 1.6138 respectively. This indicates the underlying bullish sentiments as the price action is trying to remain close to the resistance of 1.6260 and far from 1.6000. However, we are staying neutral of GBP/USD and will repeat what we had mentioned during the previous update: Only a break over 1.6260 will turn the focus for further upside first towards 1.6381 resistance and with any break of that towards the psychological resistance of 1.6500 ranges. GBP/USD is once again struggling at the resistance trend line which has been in place for past 4 years. Because of this resistance zone we stay neutral even if the sentiments are all bullish. Please do check this GBP/USD alert posted a couple of days back.

EUR/GBP

Neutral For past 2 days we had been mentioning that EUR/GBP should find resistance at 0.8385. There was an effort to break that resistance but the resistance came just 5 pips above that at 0.8390. There is not much change in our outlook and though initially we stay neutral but overall outlook is bearish till resistance holds below 0.8415. With this resistance in place a retest of 0.8300 will be expected. Overall a break below 0.8300 is required to expect further significant weakness towards 0.8225 to 0.8240 support zone or more. On the upside a break of 0.8415 may bring some consolidation towards 0.8460/0.8463 but in tat case also we will expect another fall from there.

EUR/AUD

bullish Yesterday we had indicated the possibilities of a move towards 1.4920 to 1.4960 resistance if support over 1.4645 holds. EUR/AUD moved that way and touched 1.4920. Further gains first towards 1.4960 and then possibly towards 1.5020/1.5030 should take place, however considering the psychological resistance of the approaching 1.5000 level we need to be cautious as any attempt to sustain over this level have been falling since June 2010. The first attempt had failed in June 2010 at 1.5015 and after the pair had gone into a downtrend to go as low as 1.1605. The second attempt had failed at 1.4994 and the third at 1.5031.

USD/INR

Neutral There is no change in our view about USD/INR and our outlook stays same as what we have been mentioning for past 2 days. To repeat the same: “Resistance is expected below 63.02 and with that some deeper moves may come, however as long as USD/INR remains between the support of 61.71 and resistance of 63.02, our outlook stays neutral. In fact even a break below 61.71 will be expected to come up against a very strong support at 61.50. As we have been mentioning that USD/INR is stuck between the psychological levels of 60.00 and 65.00 after failing to test 70.00. Note: Within next 6 months we expect a break below 60.00 to test 58.74/58.80 level.”

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You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:

Daily Analysis:

  1. EUR/USD daily analysis
  2. USD/JPY daily analysis
  3. GBP/USD daily analysis
  4. USD/CHF daily analysis
  5. AUD/USD daily analysis
  6. EUR/JPY daily analysis
  7. GBP/JPY daily analysis
  8. AUD/JPY daily analysis

Weekly Forex outlook

  1. EUR/USD outlook
  2. USD/JPY outlook
  3. GBP/USD outlook
  4. USD/CHF outlook
  5. AUD/USD outlook
  6. EUR/JPY outlook
  7. GBP/JPY outlook
  8. AUD/JPY outlook

FXDailyDose – November 26, 2013

November 26, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair

Near-term Outlook

Comments – Overall Outlook

USD/JPY

bullish Yesterday we had mentioned that USD/JPY should find support in the range of 101.10 to 101.35. The support came at 101.33. Our outlook stays exactly same as what we had mentioned in yesterday’s Forex Daily Dose that if the support holds in the range of 101.10 to 101.35 then USD/JPY should target 102.30 to 102.50 resistance range next. On the other hand any break below 101.10 should bring further consolidation towards 100.40/100.50 and a jump from there.

EUR/USD

Neutral Yesterday we had mentioned that EUR/USD may fall towards 1.3465 to 1.3485 support zone. It fell but support came at 1.3490 i.e. 5 pips above the indicated support. Our outlook stays as same as yesterday. We are neutral for the short-term and expect the resistance to hold in the range of 1.3560 to 1.3580. With this resistance another drop should take place again towards 1.3465 to 1.3485 support zone. In case of a break below 1.3460 the focus will turn towards further consolidation to 1.3399/1.3400. However if the resistance of 1.3580 fails then EUR/USD should target 1.3680/1.3688 resistance.

USD/CAD

bullish Yesterday we had mentioned that we expect a break over 1.0568 and first resistance at 1.0585. The break took place and USD/CAD went as high as 1.0583 and found resistance 2 pips below the indicated resistance. The fall took it to 1.0522. Our outlook is still mildly bullish and we consider the recent drop to be a psychological one before going beyond 1.0500 ranges. We now expect a support over 1.0515. If this support holds and USD/CAD breaks above 1.0585 then the next target should be 1.0609. However this outlook will neutralize if USD/CAD breaks below 1.0500. Apart from this we wish to repeat what we had mentioned yesterday ” In case USD/CAD manages a break over 1.0609 then it should target 1.0640 next. We also wish to mention the historical price action which shows that the pair is in a strong resistance zone. During August 2010 the pair had faced a strong resistance at 1.0673 and from there it had fallen strongly first to 0.9445 and then to 0.9406. The next peak was at 1.0657 during October 2011 and that too had proven to be a very strong resistance. The pair had some bumpy ride after that before falling to 0.9633. The next resistance was faced at 1.0609 during July 2013.”

CAD/JPY

Neutral Yesterday we had indicated that CAD/JPY may face a resistance near 96.86, however the resistance was faced well below that and at 96.52. There is no change in our outlook from yesterday that even though the overall outlook is mildly bullish but resistance is expected near 96.86 and even if there is a break above 96.86, a strong resistance should come at 97.11. On the downside a good support should hold at 95.95. However, if this support fails then further consolidation may take place towards 95.42 support. The volatility is very low and the price action is in a sideways range between 96.11 and 96.52. A breakout on either side should take place sooner or later and that keeps the immediate outlook as neutral for CAD/JPY.

GBP/USD

Neutral The outlook for GBP/USD remains same as yesterday. With 1.6260 resistance holding we expect consolidation towards 1.6060 or more. Only a break over 1.6260 will turn the focus for further upside towards the psychological resistance of 1.6500 ranges. We will repeat what we had mentioned yesterday “GBP/USD is once again struggling at the resistance trend line which has been in place for past 4 years. Because of this resistance zone we stay neutral even if the sentiments are all bullish. Please do check this GBP/USD alert of yesterday.”

EUR/GBP

Neutral Yesterday we had mentioned that EUR/JPY should face resistance at 0.8385. The price is just below that after touching 0.8378. There is no change in our outlook from yesterday and we will repeat what we had indicated yesterday as “The overall outlook for EUR/GBP stays bearish but the immediate outlook is neutral. On the upside a resistance is expected at 0.8385 and if that holds then a retest of 0.8300 will be expected. Overall a break below 0.8300 is required to expect further significant weakness towards 0.8225 to 0.8240 support zone or more.”

EUR/AUD

bullish Yesterday we had indicated the possibilities of a move towards 1.4873 for EUR/AUD. The price moved towards that level but found resistance at 1.4843 and the pair broke the indicated minor support of 1.4742 and fell to 1.4709. Some more downward consolidation take place towards 1.4645 before another recovery. Our immediate outlook for EUR/AUD is neutral though overall we stay bullish as long as support holds over 1.4645. If support over 1.4645 holds then further gains towards 1.4920 to 1.4960 resistance cannot be ruled out. However considering the psychological resistance of the approaching 1.5000 level we need to be cautious as any attempt to sustain over this level have been falling since June 2010. The first attempt had failed in June 2010 at 1.5015 and after the pair had gone into a downtrend to go as low as 1.1605. The second attempt had failed at 1.4994 and the third at 1.5031.

USD/INR

Neutral There is no change of our outlook for USD/INR from yesterday and we will just repeat what we had mentioned yesterday: “Resistance is expected below 63.02 and with that some deeper moves may come, however as long as USD/INR remains between the support of 61.71 and resistance of 63.02, our outlook stays neutral. In fact even a break below 61.71 will be expected to come up against a very strong support at 61.50. As we have been mentioning that USD/INR is stuck between the psychological levels of 60.00 and 65.00 after failing to test 70.00. Note: Within next 6 months we expect a break below 60.00 to test 58.74/58.80 level.”

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FXDailyDose – November 25, 2013

November 25, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair

Near-term Outlook

Comments – Overall Outlook

USD/JPY

bullish USD/JPY should find support in the range of 101.10 to 101.35. With this support further gains towards 102.30/102.50 resistance zone is expected. Our outlook stays bullish but if there is any break below 101.10 then some further consolidation may take place towards 100.40/100.50 support before further recovery.

EUR/USD

Neutral Our short-term outlook stays neutral for EUR/USD. Resistance may hold at 1.3580 and in such case some drop towards 1.3465 to 1.3485 support zone may take place. On the downside if there is a break below 1.3460 then the focus will turn back towards 1.3399 or more.

USD/CAD

bullish USD/CAD had found resistance for the second time at 1.0568. We expect a break of this resistance as the short-term outlook is now mildly bullish. With a break over 1.0568 some further gains will be expected. However, please note that even in such case a strong resistance may come first near 1.0585 and then 1.0609 and hence a caution is required. In case USD/CAD manages a break over 1.0609 then it should target 1.0640 next. We also wish to mention the historical price action which shows that the pair is in a strong resistance zone. During August 2010 the pair had faced a strong resistance at 1.0673 and from there it had fallen strongly first to 0.9445 and then to 0.9406. The next peak was at 1.0657 during October 2011 and that too had proven to be a very strong resistance. The pair had some bumpy ride after that before falling to 0.9633. The next resistance was faced at 1.0609 during July 2013. 

CAD/JPY

bullish The outlook for CAD/JPY is mildly bullish but even in case of further gains a strong resistance may come near 96.86. Even if this resistance fails another strong resistance may be faced immediately above this at 97.11. Considering a caution is required even if the sentiments are bullish.

GBP/USD

Neutral GBP/USD is once again struggling at the resistance trend line which has been in place for past 4 years. Because of this resistance zone we stay neutral even if the sentiments are all bullish. We will expect any significant gains only if there is a break over 1.6260. Please do check this GBP/USD alert of today.

EUR/GBP

Neutral The overall outlook for EUR/GBP stays bearish but the immediate outlook is neutral. On the upside a resistance is expected at 0.8385 and if that holds then a retest of 0.8300 will be expected. Overall a break below 0.8300 is required to expect further significant weakness towards 0.8225 to 0.8240 support zone or more.

EUR/AUD

bullish The outlook for EUR/AUD is now mildly bullish for some further gains, first towards 1.4873 and then possibly towards 1.4920 to 1.4960 resistance. However any break below 1.4742 minor support will turn the focus downwards for some deeper consolidation.

USD/INR

Neutral Resistance is expected below 63.02 and with that some deeper moves may come, however as long as USD/INR remains between the support of 61.71 and resistance of 63.02, our outlook stays neutral. In fact even a break below 61.71 will be expected to come up against a very strong support at 61.50. As we have been mentioning that USD/INR is stuck between the psychological levels of 60.00 and 65.00 after failing to test 70.00. Note: Within next 6 months we expect a break below 60.00 to test 58.74/58.80 level

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FXDailyDose – November 19, 2013

November 19, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments – Overall Outlook
USD/JPY Neutral Overall outlook of USD/JPY is bullish but some more downward consolidation can be expected first. USD/JPY had again tried to move up after the first failure at 100.43. The pair could not retest 100.43 and found resistance at 100.39. It tried to break the support of the Kijun line of daily Ichimoku cloud but the immediate support had made the daily candle to close just above that support level. Today again it is trying to break that support. The leading economic index and coincident index report from Japan came positive today. Though the overall outlook is bullish but we may see some downward consolidation. The resistance is expected in the range of 100.00 to 100.55. If the resistance holds and any break below 99.57 takes place then further consolidation towards 99.10 to 99.20 will be expected.
EUR/USD Neutral EUR/USD found resistance 5 pips below the previous resistance of 1.3447. If the resistance of 1.3447 breaks then further gains towards 1.3467 or even for a test of psychological 1.3500 may take place. This resistance is critical as it was not only a recent strong resistance level but also brings the resistance of the Kijun line as well as the lower edge of daily Ichimoku cloud. Any break over this will also represent a decisive break of the resistance of 55-day EMA. However, if this resistance holds then first level of support should come at 1.3474 and any break of that should take EUR/USD towards the next support zone of 1.3418 to 1.3432. A strong support will be expected there.
USD/CAD Neutral USD/CAD is in a support zone above 1.0398. First support is expected at 1.0405 and in case of a break a stronger support should come at 1.0398. The price-action is indicating a downward pressure and there are good possibilities that the support at 1.0398 fails. If such a move takes place then further drop towards 1.0360/1.0365 support zone will be expected. On the upside any break of 1.0484 will bring back the near-term bullish outlook back and a break above 1.0525 will confirm it. We are staying neutral initially.
CAD/JPY bullish CAD/JPY is finding the support of 200-day moving average currently. If support above 95.40 holds then further upward gains towards 96.17 and then possibly 96.40 are expected. However any break of 95.40 support should bring further downward consolidation towards 94.90. Please note that even if such a move takes place a minor support will be expected at 95.27. Our short-term outlook stays bullish, however in case of further gains a very strong resistance is expected in the range of 96.86 to 97.10.
GBP/USD Neutral The resistance at 1.6149 is critical for GBP/USD. The price-action has been in a sideways range and initially we stay neutral. In case a break over 1.6149 takes place then further gains first towards 1.6205/1.6208 and then possibly 1.6250 can be expected. However if the resistance holds and if GBP/USD breaks below 1.6082 then further drop first towards 1.6048 and then possibly 1.5988 may take place. We are staying neutral at the current price levels.
EUR/GBP Bearish The overall outlook for EUR/GBP stays bearish but the immediate outlook is neutral. SOme further gains cannot be ignored but the first resistance is expected at 0.8415 and even if it fails then a stronger resistance will be expected near 0.8440/0.8455. In any case we will expect another fall from below 0.8477. The first indication of a short-term bottoming and a better indication will be there if a break above 0.8520 takes place. On the downside good support will be expected at 0.8358 and a break below that will turn the focus back towards downside.
EUR/AUD Bearish EUR/AUD should find support at 1.4319 but if that support fails then further drop towards 1.4229 or more will be expected. We are mildly bearish for the short-term. The price-action is indicating a strong resistance of the psychological level of 1.4500 and if this continues then sooner or later first a test of 200-day moving average i.e. 1.4170 and then a retest of 1.4050 cannot be ignored.
USD/INR Neutral During the previous updated we had indicated that USD/INR should drop towards 62.30 or more. The pair has touched 61.71. Some more downward moves are expected but a strong support should come at 61.50. Considering this possible support our immediate outlook stays neutral. However, any break below 61.50 will turn the focus towards 60.56 or more. The current resistance at 64.17 has indicated a strong fear of the psychological level of 65.00 and considering this our near-term outlook stays mildly bearish but overall we are neutral for USD/INR.

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FXDailyDose – November 14, 2013

November 14, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments – Overall Outlook
USD/JPY bullish USD/JPY jumped up strongly after falling to 99.10. The pair is still struggling below the psychological level of 100.00. The bullish sentiments are quite evident and our outlook stay same that a break above 99.80 should bring further gains towards 100.20. Overall outlook will stay bullish till support in the range of 98.92 to 98.94 holds but the continuous resistance below 100.00 is keeping us neutral initially. If this resistance holds then a retest of the support zone of 98.92/98.94 will be expected. Any break below this support should bring further consolidation towards 98.20/98.40.
EUR/USD Neutral Yesterday we had indicated the possibilities of upward move towards 1.3488. EUR/USD moved 8 pips above that to 1.3496 before finding resistance below the psychological 1.3500. We expect strong resistance below 1.3529 but any decisive break above this will be the first indication for a near-term bottoming and a better indication will come if the pair manages a break above 1.3547. However resistance continues below 1.3500 and a break below the recent 1.3390 takes place then the focus will turn back towards downside. However we will still stay neutral for further declines till the support of 1.3294 does not fail.
USD/CAD Neutral Yesterday we had mentioned that if USD/CAD breaks below 1.0463 then it should find a support and recovery from 1.0440. The support came exactly at 1.0440. The current price is 1.0472 when we are updating the outlook. The subsequent highs were getting higher but the recent resistance did not follow that pattern when USD/CAD found resistance at 1.0496. If support at 1.0440 holds and a break above 1.0508 takes place then we would expect further gains towards 1.0540/1.0545. Overall we still expect upward gains till the pair remains over 1.0398 but initially we are staying neutral till the pair does not break over the psychological resistance of 1.0500 decisively. If this resistance holds the focus will turn back towards downside.
CAD/JPY bullish Yesterday we had mentioned that we expect first resistance expected is at 95.22 and then the 200-day moving average at 95.51. As we had mentioned yesterday, four attempts to break below have failed during past four and a half months. The pair tried to break the first resistance by touching 95.27. Our outlook stays same as yesterday i.e. mildly bullish and we expect further gains towards 95.51/95.60. However to expect any substantial gains a break over 95.85 will be required. A break above 95.85 should bring further gains towards 96.80. This outlook will start neutralizing if the expected support in the range of 94.23 to 94.41 fails.
GBP/USD Neutral Yesterday’s strong jump which came with BOE’s Governor Carney speech and quarterly inflation report neutralized the immediate bearish outlook for GBP/USD. However, the price-action had just touched the short-term resistance trend-line and seemingly finding resistance there. The immediate outlook is neutral now and possibilities of a fall can still not be ignored. To expect a near-term bottoming first a break over the recent 1.6067 but most importantly 1.6120 is required. But in such case also we will expect the gains to be limited to 1.6247/1.6256 resistance. On the downside first support is expected at 1.6010 and if that breaks the a stronger support will be expected 1.5962. Any break below 1.5962 will be the first indication of the topping. Overall a break below 1.5854 will turn the focus back towards downside and in such case will expect further drop towards 1.5740 or more.
EUR/GBP Bearish Yesterday we had mentioned that we expected a resistance at 0.8477. The price fell strongly from 0.8463 to 0.8376 before losing downward momentum. Our overall outlook remains bearish for EUR/GBP but initially we stay neutral though if resistance holds below 0.8445 then we expect some more drop towards the support of 0.8323.
EUR/AUD Neutral EUR/AUD fell from 1.4484 to indicate that the psychological resistance of 1.4500 is still acting. EUR/AUD has been failing to sustain above the psychological 1.4500 for over 2 months. There is no change in our outlook and it stays same as yesterday that overall we expect a break above 1.4500 soon. Though initially we stay neutral but the neat-term outlook has turned mildly bullish. The bullish outlook will get further confirmation if a break above 1.4560 takes place. Such a break should result into a jump towards 1.4720 or more. On the downside any failure of 1.4229 support will be the first indication for deeper declines for a retest of 1.4050 or more.
USD/INR Neutral Yesterday we had mentioned that a break below 63.05 would be the first indication of a possible near-term topping. USD/INR broke the support of 63.05. We are staying neutral for USD/INR but we expect further decline towards 62.30 or more.

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FXDailyDose – November 13, 2013

November 13, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments – Overall Outlook
USD/JPY bullish USD/JPY broke over 99.67 resistance and went as high as 99.80 before experiencing the psychological pressure of 100.00. The resistance took it down to 99.42. If support comes in the range of 99.20/99.25 then a retest of 99.80 is expected. A break above 99.80 should bring further gains towards 100.20. Our outlook stays bullish for the near-term based on the bullish signal from daily ichimoku, the break of 200-day moving average and also the break of the 6 month old trend line resistance. Please check the previous updates as well as this USD/JPY chart alert for the details. However if resistance at 99.80 holds and the support of 99.20/99.25 fails then further consolidation towards 98.80 support will be expected.
EUR/USD Neutral For last 2 days we had been mentioning about the possibilities that EUR/USD may have some upward correction towards 1.3438 to 1.3449. The price moved up that way and even broke above this resistance to touch 1.3456 (7 pips more). We stay neutral initially. Further consolidation towards 1.3488 cannot be ruled out but overall outlook stays bearish for the near-term. If resistance near 1.3488 holds and a break below 1.3341 takes place then drop towards 1.3265 support will be expected.
USD/CAD bullish Our outlook for USD/CAD becomes mildly bullish for the short-term. Though the price has still not been able to sustain above the psychological level of 1.0500 but the subsequent highs are getting higher. the first was 1.0497, the next attempt touched 1.0503 and the third 1.0508. We expect further gains towards 1.0540/1.0545 if support at 1.0463 holds. Please note that 1.0463 had proved to be a resistance and then it turned into support two days back. Any break below 1.0463 should find a support and recovery from 1.0440. This mildly bullish outlook will be neutralized if any break below 1.0398 takes place.
CAD/JPY bullish On one hand a double top is in place on weekly chart but on the other hand CAD/JPY has been continuously finding support over 92.17. Four attempts to break below have failed during past four and a half months. However, on the upside, during part one and a half months, the pair has failed 3 times near the 200-day moving average resistance. The current 200-day moving average is at 95.51 which is 72 pips above the current price. Though we stay neutral initially but overall we are mildly bullish. The first resistance expected is at 95.22 and then the 200-day SMA. A break above these resistances should bring further gains towards 96.80. This outlook will start neutralizing if the expected support in the range of 94.23 to 94.41 fails.
GBP/USD Bearish The near-term outlook had turned bearish for GBP/USD, with the recent break of the support after the resistance of 4 year old trend line held firm. Please check the chart for this break at this GBP/USD alert. Some support should come near the recent 1.5854 but below that we will expect further drop towards 1.5740 or more. Intraday resistance is expected below 1.5965.
EUR/GBP Bearish Our overall outlook remains bearish for EUR/GBP but initially we stay neutral. Yesterday we had indicated the possibilities for upward moves towards the resistance zone of 0.8416 to 0.8440. The prices moved that way and then went as high as 0.8463. We expect a resistance at 0.8477 and a fall with that but any failure of that resistance may bring some further upward consolidation. On the downside the first support should come at or above 0.8396.
EUR/AUD Neutral Yesterday we had indicated about the possibilities that EUR/AUD might move upward to 1.4385. The upward move came and the pair even moved as high as 1.4484. the pair has been failing to sustain above the psychological 1.0450 for over 2 months and hence the current price is in a strong resistance zone. overall we expect a break above this resistance soon. Though initially we stay neutral but the neat-term outlook has turned mildly bullish. The bullish outlook will get further confirmation if a break above 1.4560 takes place. Such a break should result into a jump towards 1.4720 or more.
USD/INR Neutral Yesterday we had mentioned resistance is the range of 64.20 to 64.45. The resistance came 3 pips below the range at 64.17. Further upward moves may take place as long as support holds over 63.05. A break below 63.05 would be the first indication of a possible near-term topping and such a move should bring further decline towards 62.30 or more. We are staying neutral for USD/INR. Overall we expect some extended sideways moves between 60.40 and 64.60 in the near future.

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FX Daily Dose – November 12, 2013

November 12, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments – Overall Outlook
USD/JPY bullish USD/JPY has not yet broken over 99.67 resistance which we have been mentioning for past couple of days. However there is a break of the trend line resistance which has been in place for almost 6 months. Apart from that the medium strength bullish signal from daily Ichimoku cloud and break of 200-day moving average which we had mentioned yesterday, all indicate that some further upward gains can be expected. Still it is better to wait for a break over 99.67. In case this resistance fails then the next resistance will be expected near 100.20.
EUR/USD Neutral Yesterday we had mentioned the possibilities that EUR/USD may have some upward correction towards 1.3438 to 1.3449 resistance. The prices moved up to 1.3416. Our outlook says same as yesterday that if there is no failure of this resistance then further drop towards 1.3265 support is expected. If 200-day moving average support fails and a break below 1.3230 takes place then some further drop towards 1.3230 i.e. 55-week EMA should come. However any break above 1.3450 may take EUR/USD to test 1.3500. We are staying neutral initially but overall outlook is bearish.
USD/CAD Neutral Our outlook for USD/CAD remains same as yesterday. The pair is struggling with the psychological resistance of 1.0500 and is practically stuck between 1.0400 and 1.0400. The recent slight break above 1.0500 had found resistance just 3 pips above and the previous slight break below 1.0400 had found support just 2 pips below it. We stay neutral till a break on either side i.e. above 1.0503 or 1.0398 does not take place. Above 1.0503 USD/CAD will be expected to target 1.0545 and below 1.0398 it should target the support zone of 1.0320 to 1.0360. Possibilities of an upward break are higher if the support near 1.0430 holds.
CAD/JPY bullish On one hand a double top is in place on weekly chart but on the other hand CAD/JPY has been continuously finding support over 92.17. Four attempts to break below have failed during past four and a half months. Today we expect some more gains towards the resistance in the range of 95.45 to 95.60.
GBP/USD Neutral Our outlook for GBP/USD stays same as what we had mentioned in yesterday’s update. We now expect a resistance in the range of 1.6031 to 1.6040. If this resistance holds then any break below 1.5957 should bring further fall towards 1.5905 to 1.5894 support zone. The support at 1.5894 is critical and any break below that should bring deeper consolidations towards 1.5740 or more. Overall till any break above 1.6120 does not take place, we will remain in favor of a deeper consolidation.
EUR/GBP Bearish Our outlook remains bearish for EUR/GBP but initially we expect some more upward consolidation after the pair has broken over 0.8362 resistance. Further upward gains towards the resistance zone of 0.8416 to 0.8440 should take place. Even if this resistance fails, we will expect a deeper fall towards 0.8225 from the resistance below 0.8480.
EUR/AUD Neutral EUR/AUD’s fall after the interest rate decision of ECB was arrested by the dual support of 200-day moving average as well as the psychological support of 1.4000 ranges. however the pair has been failing to sustain above the psychological 1.0450 for over 2 months. This suggests that sooner or later we may seen a deeper consolidation if the support of 1.4000 fails. However today we expect some more gains but a strong resistance near 1.4385.
USD/INR Neutral Our outlook for USD/INR stays same as the pair is continuously facing resistance below the resistance zone we have been mentioning for past three days. The pair has moved up to 63.60 and is now in the resistance zone of 63.57 to 63.65 which we had mentioned 2 days back. Our immediate outlook for USD/INR stays neutral for any further gains till there is no break above 63.65. If this resistance fails then some more gains towards the resistance zone of 64.20 to 64.45 will be expected. The psychological pressure of 65.00 should start there. If the resistance continues then a drop towards 62.70 will be expected. Please also note that 63.97 is the 38.2% retracement of USD/INR’s fall from 69.52 to 60.54 and that makes the current resistance zone even stronger.

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