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Up-to-date non-farm payroll data since 1939

January 29, 2014 in Historical and Research

Nonfarm payroll (NFP) report is one of the most important economic report from the United States. The reason is simple that the nonfarm employment report represents approximately 80% of the total work-force which makes United States’ GDP.

This post will have the latest updated data with all the historical employment numbers since the year 1939. However, before we go to the actual data, let’s touch upon some of the key points about the non-farm payrolls. You may also like to check historical nonfarm payroll data analysis.

NFP – Key points and the actual data

Who releases the NFP?

Nonfarm report is released by Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor. BLS was established in 1884.

Which workforce categories are excluded?

  • Employees in Farm/Agricultural sector
  • Business proprietors
  • Employees of private households
  • People working as unpaid volunteers
  • Self-employed people who have not incorporated their businesses

When the data is released?

Monthly NFP report is released 3 weeks after the week (reference week) which includes 12th of the month. This typically falls on the first Friday of the subsequent month, however there may be exceptions when the report may get released on the second Friday of the month. These exception include the cases when the first Friday is the first day of the month or is a national holiday. Further exceptions are also possible if the first Friday is falling in a week which is a in holiday season, even though the Friday itself is not a national holiday. For example December 2013’s non-farm report was released on January 10, 2014, which was the second Friday and though the first Friday was not a national holiday.

Is the data seasonally adjusted?

BLS issues the following:

  • Total nonfarm payroll (PAYEMS): which is seasonally adjusted to take into account various factors which can cause fluctuation in the employment number due to that specific time-period. It could be holidays or weather or such other factors.
  • Total Nonfarm (PAYNSA): This report is absolute and without and seasonal adjustments.

The data which is generally reported by the News media or economic calendars is seasonally adjusted.

The actual Nonfarm payroll data since the year 1939

The following table presents the actual seasonally adjusted nonfarm data since 1939. Please note that all the figures are in thousands and hence need to multiply by 1000 for the actual NFP numbers. The nonfarm payroll numbers in the table below are updated as and when the originally released data is revised later on.

May-2014Jun-2014224,000

Month for the NFP data NFP release month NFP in thousands
Jan-1939 Feb-1939 29,923
Feb-1939 Mar-1939 30,100
Mar-1939 Apr-1939 30,280
Apr-1939 May-1939 30,094
May-1939 Jun-1939 30,300
Jun-1939 Jul-1939 30,502
Jul-1939 Aug-1939 30,419
Aug-1939 Sep-1939 30,662
Sep-1939 Oct-1939 31,032
Oct-1939 Nov-1939 31,408
Nov-1939 Dec-1939 31,469
Dec-1939 Jan-1940 31,539
Jan-1940 Feb-1940 31,603
Feb-1940 Mar-1940 31,715
Mar-1940 Apr-1940 31,826
Apr-1940 May-1940 31,699
May-1940 Jun-1940 31,880
Jun-1940 Jul-1940 31,978
Jul-1940 Aug-1940 31,942
Aug-1940 Sep-1940 32,352
Sep-1940 Oct-1940 32,810
Oct-1940 Nov-1940 33,265
Nov-1940 Dec-1940 33,668
Dec-1940 Jan-1941 34,172
Jan-1941 Feb-1941 34,480
Feb-1941 Mar-1941 34,844
Mar-1941 Apr-1941 35,094
Apr-1941 May-1941 35,468
May-1941 Jun-1941 36,182
Jun-1941 Jul-1941 36,651
Jul-1941 Aug-1941 37,137
Aug-1941 Sep-1941 37,544
Sep-1941 Oct-1941 37,836
Oct-1941 Nov-1941 37,948
Nov-1941 Dec-1941 38,024
Dec-1941 Jan-1942 38,104
Jan-1942 Feb-1942 38,348
Feb-1942 Mar-1942 38,513
Mar-1942 Apr-1942 38,936
Apr-1942 May-1942 39,351
May-1942 Jun-1942 39,772
Jun-1942 Jul-1942 40,028
Jul-1942 Aug-1942 40,470
Aug-1942 Sep-1942 40,988
Sep-1942 Oct-1942 41,254
Oct-1942 Nov-1942 41,514
Nov-1942 Dec-1942 41,673
Dec-1942 Jan-1943 41,915
Jan-1943 Feb-1943 42,174
Feb-1943 Mar-1943 42,395
Mar-1943 Apr-1943 42,553
Apr-1943 May-1943 42,646
May-1943 Jun-1943 42,596
Jun-1943 Jul-1943 42,781
Jul-1943 Aug-1943 42,701
Aug-1943 Sep-1943 42,546
Sep-1943 Oct-1943 42,484
Oct-1943 Nov-1943 42,675
Nov-1943 Dec-1943 42,819
Dec-1943 Jan-1944 42,747
Jan-1944 Feb-1944 42,661
Feb-1944 Mar-1944 42,543
Mar-1944 Apr-1944 42,291
Apr-1944 May-1944 42,062
May-1944 Jun-1944 41,985
Jun-1944 Jul-1944 41,947
Jul-1944 Aug-1944 41,904
Aug-1944 Sep-1944 41,848
Sep-1944 Oct-1944 41,671
Oct-1944 Nov-1944 41,708
Nov-1944 Dec-1944 41,711
Dec-1944 Jan-1945 41,861
Jan-1945 Feb-1945 41,903
Feb-1945 Mar-1945 41,903
Mar-1945 Apr-1945 41,795
Apr-1945 May-1945 41,443
May-1945 Jun-1945 41,304
Jun-1945 Jul-1945 41,148
Jul-1945 Aug-1945 40,873
Aug-1945 Sep-1945 40,466
Sep-1945 Oct-1945 38,500
Oct-1945 Nov-1945 38,598
Nov-1945 Dec-1945 38,996
Dec-1945 Jan-1946 39,111
Jan-1946 Feb-1946 39,839
Feb-1946 Mar-1946 39,250
Mar-1946 Apr-1946 40,192
Apr-1946 May-1946 40,908
May-1946 Jun-1946 41,348
Jun-1946 Jul-1946 41,732
Jul-1946 Aug-1946 42,153
Aug-1946 Sep-1946 42,642
Sep-1946 Oct-1946 42,908
Oct-1946 Nov-1946 43,094
Nov-1946 Dec-1946 43,396
Dec-1946 Jan-1947 43,379
Jan-1947 Feb-1947 43,545
Feb-1947 Mar-1947 43,563
Mar-1947 Apr-1947 43,605
Apr-1947 May-1947 43,491
May-1947 Jun-1947 43,637
Jun-1947 Jul-1947 43,808
Jul-1947 Aug-1947 43,742
Aug-1947 Sep-1947 43,958
Sep-1947 Oct-1947 44,201
Oct-1947 Nov-1947 44,415
Nov-1947 Dec-1947 44,486
Dec-1947 Jan-1948 44,578
Jan-1948 Feb-1948 44,686
Feb-1948 Mar-1948 44,537
Mar-1948 Apr-1948 44,680
Apr-1948 May-1948 44,369
May-1948 Jun-1948 44,795
Jun-1948 Jul-1948 45,032
Jul-1948 Aug-1948 45,160
Aug-1948 Sep-1948 45,175
Sep-1948 Oct-1948 45,294
Oct-1948 Nov-1948 45,250
Nov-1948 Dec-1948 45,194
Dec-1948 Jan-1949 45,028
Jan-1949 Feb-1949 44,675
Feb-1949 Mar-1949 44,500
Mar-1949 Apr-1949 44,238
Apr-1949 May-1949 44,230
May-1949 Jun-1949 43,982
Jun-1949 Jul-1949 43,739
Jul-1949 Aug-1949 43,530
Aug-1949 Sep-1949 43,621
Sep-1949 Oct-1949 43,784
Oct-1949 Nov-1949 42,950
Nov-1949 Dec-1949 43,244
Dec-1949 Jan-1950 43,516
Jan-1950 Feb-1950 43,530
Feb-1950 Mar-1950 43,298
Mar-1950 Apr-1950 43,952
Apr-1950 May-1950 44,376
May-1950 Jun-1950 44,717
Jun-1950 Jul-1950 45,084
Jul-1950 Aug-1950 45,453
Aug-1950 Sep-1950 46,187
Sep-1950 Oct-1950 46,442
Oct-1950 Nov-1950 46,712
Nov-1950 Dec-1950 46,778
Dec-1950 Jan-1951 46,855
Jan-1951 Feb-1951 47,289
Feb-1951 Mar-1951 47,577
Mar-1951 Apr-1951 47,871
Apr-1951 May-1951 47,856
May-1951 Jun-1951 47,952
Jun-1951 Jul-1951 48,067
Jul-1951 Aug-1951 48,061
Aug-1951 Sep-1951 48,008
Sep-1951 Oct-1951 47,955
Oct-1951 Nov-1951 48,009
Nov-1951 Dec-1951 48,149
Dec-1951 Jan-1952 48,308
Jan-1952 Feb-1952 48,299
Feb-1952 Mar-1952 48,522
Mar-1952 Apr-1952 48,504
Apr-1952 May-1952 48,616
May-1952 Jun-1952 48,645
Jun-1952 Jul-1952 48,286
Jul-1952 Aug-1952 48,144
Aug-1952 Sep-1952 48,922
Sep-1952 Oct-1952 49,319
Oct-1952 Nov-1952 49,598
Nov-1952 Dec-1952 49,816
Dec-1952 Jan-1953 50,164
Jan-1953 Feb-1953 50,145
Feb-1953 Mar-1953 50,339
Mar-1953 Apr-1953 50,474
Apr-1953 May-1953 50,432
May-1953 Jun-1953 50,491
Jun-1953 Jul-1953 50,522
Jul-1953 Aug-1953 50,536
Aug-1953 Sep-1953 50,487
Sep-1953 Oct-1953 50,365
Oct-1953 Nov-1953 50,242
Nov-1953 Dec-1953 49,906
Dec-1953 Jan-1954 49,702
Jan-1954 Feb-1954 49,467
Feb-1954 Mar-1954 49,381
Mar-1954 Apr-1954 49,158
Apr-1954 May-1954 49,177
May-1954 Jun-1954 48,965
Jun-1954 Jul-1954 48,896
Jul-1954 Aug-1954 48,834
Aug-1954 Sep-1954 48,825
Sep-1954 Oct-1954 48,881
Oct-1954 Nov-1954 48,944
Nov-1954 Dec-1954 49,179
Dec-1954 Jan-1955 49,331
Jan-1955 Feb-1955 49,497
Feb-1955 Mar-1955 49,644
Mar-1955 Apr-1955 49,963
Apr-1955 May-1955 50,246
May-1955 Jun-1955 50,512
Jun-1955 Jul-1955 50,790
Jul-1955 Aug-1955 50,985
Aug-1955 Sep-1955 51,112
Sep-1955 Oct-1955 51,262
Oct-1955 Nov-1955 51,431
Nov-1955 Dec-1955 51,592
Dec-1955 Jan-1956 51,805
Jan-1956 Feb-1956 51,975
Feb-1956 Mar-1956 52,167
Mar-1956 Apr-1956 52,295
Apr-1956 May-1956 52,375
May-1956 Jun-1956 52,506
Jun-1956 Jul-1956 52,583
Jul-1956 Aug-1956 51,954
Aug-1956 Sep-1956 52,632
Sep-1956 Oct-1956 52,600
Oct-1956 Nov-1956 52,781
Nov-1956 Dec-1956 52,822
Dec-1956 Jan-1957 52,930
Jan-1957 Feb-1957 52,888
Feb-1957 Mar-1957 53,098
Mar-1957 Apr-1957 53,156
Apr-1957 May-1957 53,238
May-1957 Jun-1957 53,149
Jun-1957 Jul-1957 53,066
Jul-1957 Aug-1957 53,122
Aug-1957 Sep-1957 53,128
Sep-1957 Oct-1957 52,932
Oct-1957 Nov-1957 52,765
Nov-1957 Dec-1957 52,557
Dec-1957 Jan-1958 52,385
Jan-1958 Feb-1958 52,077
Feb-1958 Mar-1958 51,576
Mar-1958 Apr-1958 51,300
Apr-1958 May-1958 51,026
May-1958 Jun-1958 50,913
Jun-1958 Jul-1958 50,912
Jul-1958 Aug-1958 51,037
Aug-1958 Sep-1958 51,233
Sep-1958 Oct-1958 51,506
Oct-1958 Nov-1958 51,485
Nov-1958 Dec-1958 51,943
Dec-1958 Jan-1959 52,088
Jan-1959 Feb-1959 52,481
Feb-1959 Mar-1959 52,687
Mar-1959 Apr-1959 53,016
Apr-1959 May-1959 53,320
May-1959 Jun-1959 53,549
Jun-1959 Jul-1959 53,678
Jul-1959 Aug-1959 53,803
Aug-1959 Sep-1959 53,337
Sep-1959 Oct-1959 53,428
Oct-1959 Nov-1959 53,359
Nov-1959 Dec-1959 53,635
Dec-1959 Jan-1960 54,175
Jan-1960 Feb-1960 54,274
Feb-1960 Mar-1960 54,513
Mar-1960 Apr-1960 54,458
Apr-1960 May-1960 54,812
May-1960 Jun-1960 54,472
Jun-1960 Jul-1960 54,347
Jul-1960 Aug-1960 54,303
Aug-1960 Sep-1960 54,272
Sep-1960 Oct-1960 54,228
Oct-1960 Nov-1960 54,144
Nov-1960 Dec-1960 53,962
Dec-1960 Jan-1961 53,743
Jan-1961 Feb-1961 53,683
Feb-1961 Mar-1961 53,556
Mar-1961 Apr-1961 53,662
Apr-1961 May-1961 53,626
May-1961 Jun-1961 53,783
Jun-1961 Jul-1961 53,977
Jul-1961 Aug-1961 54,124
Aug-1961 Sep-1961 54,299
Sep-1961 Oct-1961 54,387
Oct-1961 Nov-1961 54,521
Nov-1961 Dec-1961 54,743
Dec-1961 Jan-1962 54,871
Jan-1962 Feb-1962 54,891
Feb-1962 Mar-1962 55,187
Mar-1962 Apr-1962 55,276
Apr-1962 May-1962 55,601
May-1962 Jun-1962 55,626
Jun-1962 Jul-1962 55,644
Jul-1962 Aug-1962 55,746
Aug-1962 Sep-1962 55,838
Sep-1962 Oct-1962 55,977
Oct-1962 Nov-1962 56,041
Nov-1962 Dec-1962 56,055
Dec-1962 Jan-1963 56,027
Jan-1963 Feb-1963 56,116
Feb-1963 Mar-1963 56,231
Mar-1963 Apr-1963 56,322
Apr-1963 May-1963 56,580
May-1963 Jun-1963 56,616
Jun-1963 Jul-1963 56,658
Jul-1963 Aug-1963 56,795
Aug-1963 Sep-1963 56,910
Sep-1963 Oct-1963 57,078
Oct-1963 Nov-1963 57,284
Nov-1963 Dec-1963 57,255
Dec-1963 Jan-1964 57,360
Jan-1964 Feb-1964 57,487
Feb-1964 Mar-1964 57,752
Mar-1964 Apr-1964 57,898
Apr-1964 May-1964 57,923
May-1964 Jun-1964 58,089
Jun-1964 Jul-1964 58,221
Jul-1964 Aug-1964 58,412
Aug-1964 Sep-1964 58,620
Sep-1964 Oct-1964 58,903
Oct-1964 Nov-1964 58,794
Nov-1964 Dec-1964 59,217
Dec-1964 Jan-1965 59,420
Jan-1965 Feb-1965 59,583
Feb-1965 Mar-1965 59,800
Mar-1965 Apr-1965 60,003
Apr-1965 May-1965 60,258
May-1965 Jun-1965 60,492
Jun-1965 Jul-1965 60,690
Jul-1965 Aug-1965 60,963
Aug-1965 Sep-1965 61,228
Sep-1965 Oct-1965 61,490
Oct-1965 Nov-1965 61,718
Nov-1965 Dec-1965 61,997
Dec-1965 Jan-1966 62,321
Jan-1966 Feb-1966 62,528
Feb-1966 Mar-1966 62,796
Mar-1966 Apr-1966 63,191
Apr-1966 May-1966 63,436
May-1966 Jun-1966 63,711
Jun-1966 Jul-1966 64,110
Jul-1966 Aug-1966 64,301
Aug-1966 Sep-1966 64,507
Sep-1966 Oct-1966 64,645
Oct-1966 Nov-1966 64,854
Nov-1966 Dec-1966 65,019
Dec-1966 Jan-1967 65,199
Jan-1967 Feb-1967 65,407
Feb-1967 Mar-1967 65,427
Mar-1967 Apr-1967 65,530
Apr-1967 May-1967 65,467
May-1967 Jun-1967 65,618
Jun-1967 Jul-1967 65,750
Jul-1967 Aug-1967 65,887
Aug-1967 Sep-1967 66,142
Sep-1967 Oct-1967 66,163
Oct-1967 Nov-1967 66,225
Nov-1967 Dec-1967 66,703
Dec-1967 Jan-1968 66,900
Jan-1968 Feb-1968 66,805
Feb-1968 Mar-1968 67,214
Mar-1968 Apr-1968 67,296
Apr-1968 May-1968 67,555
May-1968 Jun-1968 67,652
Jun-1968 Jul-1968 67,904
Jul-1968 Aug-1968 68,126
Aug-1968 Sep-1968 68,328
Sep-1968 Oct-1968 68,487
Oct-1968 Nov-1968 68,720
Nov-1968 Dec-1968 68,985
Dec-1968 Jan-1969 69,245
Jan-1969 Feb-1969 69,438
Feb-1969 Mar-1969 69,698
Mar-1969 Apr-1969 69,906
Apr-1969 May-1969 70,072
May-1969 Jun-1969 70,328
Jun-1969 Jul-1969 70,636
Jul-1969 Aug-1969 70,730
Aug-1969 Sep-1969 71,005
Sep-1969 Oct-1969 70,918
Oct-1969 Nov-1969 71,119
Nov-1969 Dec-1969 71,088
Dec-1969 Jan-1970 71,240
Jan-1970 Feb-1970 71,176
Feb-1970 Mar-1970 71,302
Mar-1970 Apr-1970 71,453
Apr-1970 May-1970 71,348
May-1970 Jun-1970 71,122
Jun-1970 Jul-1970 71,028
Jul-1970 Aug-1970 71,055
Aug-1970 Sep-1970 70,932
Sep-1970 Oct-1970 70,949
Oct-1970 Nov-1970 70,519
Nov-1970 Dec-1970 70,409
Dec-1970 Jan-1971 70,790
Jan-1971 Feb-1971 70,866
Feb-1971 Mar-1971 70,805
Mar-1971 Apr-1971 70,859
Apr-1971 May-1971 71,037
May-1971 Jun-1971 71,247
Jun-1971 Jul-1971 71,253
Jul-1971 Aug-1971 71,316
Aug-1971 Sep-1971 71,368
Sep-1971 Oct-1971 71,620
Oct-1971 Nov-1971 71,642
Nov-1971 Dec-1971 71,844
Dec-1971 Jan-1972 72,108
Jan-1972 Feb-1972 72,445
Feb-1972 Mar-1972 72,652
Mar-1972 Apr-1972 72,945
Apr-1972 May-1972 73,163
May-1972 Jun-1972 73,467
Jun-1972 Jul-1972 73,760
Jul-1972 Aug-1972 73,709
Aug-1972 Sep-1972 74,137
Sep-1972 Oct-1972 74,268
Oct-1972 Nov-1972 74,672
Nov-1972 Dec-1972 74,965
Dec-1972 Jan-1973 75,270
Jan-1973 Feb-1973 75,620
Feb-1973 Mar-1973 76,017
Mar-1973 Apr-1973 76,286
Apr-1973 May-1973 76,456
May-1973 Jun-1973 76,646
Jun-1973 Jul-1973 76,886
Jul-1973 Aug-1973 76,911
Aug-1973 Sep-1973 77,166
Sep-1973 Oct-1973 77,281
Oct-1973 Nov-1973 77,605
Nov-1973 Dec-1973 77,909
Dec-1973 Jan-1974 78,035
Jan-1974 Feb-1974 78,104
Feb-1974 Mar-1974 78,253
Mar-1974 Apr-1974 78,295
Apr-1974 May-1974 78,384
May-1974 Jun-1974 78,547
Jun-1974 Jul-1974 78,602
Jul-1974 Aug-1974 78,634
Aug-1974 Sep-1974 78,619
Sep-1974 Oct-1974 78,614
Oct-1974 Nov-1974 78,627
Nov-1974 Dec-1974 78,259
Dec-1974 Jan-1975 77,657
Jan-1975 Feb-1975 77,297
Feb-1975 Mar-1975 76,919
Mar-1975 Apr-1975 76,649
Apr-1975 May-1975 76,463
May-1975 Jun-1975 76,623
Jun-1975 Jul-1975 76,519
Jul-1975 Aug-1975 76,768
Aug-1975 Sep-1975 77,154
Sep-1975 Oct-1975 77,232
Oct-1975 Nov-1975 77,535
Nov-1975 Dec-1975 77,679
Dec-1975 Jan-1976 78,017
Jan-1976 Feb-1976 78,506
Feb-1976 Mar-1976 78,817
Mar-1976 Apr-1976 79,049
Apr-1976 May-1976 79,293
May-1976 Jun-1976 79,311
Jun-1976 Jul-1976 79,376
Jul-1976 Aug-1976 79,546
Aug-1976 Sep-1976 79,704
Sep-1976 Oct-1976 79,892
Oct-1976 Nov-1976 79,905
Nov-1976 Dec-1976 80,237
Dec-1976 Jan-1977 80,448
Jan-1977 Feb-1977 80,692
Feb-1977 Mar-1977 80,987
Mar-1977 Apr-1977 81,391
Apr-1977 May-1977 81,730
May-1977 Jun-1977 82,089
Jun-1977 Jul-1977 82,488
Jul-1977 Aug-1977 82,836
Aug-1977 Sep-1977 83,074
Sep-1977 Oct-1977 83,532
Oct-1977 Nov-1977 83,794
Nov-1977 Dec-1977 84,173
Dec-1977 Jan-1978 84,408
Jan-1978 Feb-1978 84,595
Feb-1978 Mar-1978 84,948
Mar-1978 Apr-1978 85,461
Apr-1978 May-1978 86,163
May-1978 Jun-1978 86,509
Jun-1978 Jul-1978 86,951
Jul-1978 Aug-1978 87,205
Aug-1978 Sep-1978 87,481
Sep-1978 Oct-1978 87,618
Oct-1978 Nov-1978 87,954
Nov-1978 Dec-1978 88,391
Dec-1978 Jan-1979 88,674
Jan-1979 Feb-1979 88,811
Feb-1979 Mar-1979 89,054
Mar-1979 Apr-1979 89,480
Apr-1979 May-1979 89,418
May-1979 Jun-1979 89,790
Jun-1979 Jul-1979 90,108
Jul-1979 Aug-1979 90,214
Aug-1979 Sep-1979 90,296
Sep-1979 Oct-1979 90,323
Oct-1979 Nov-1979 90,480
Nov-1979 Dec-1979 90,574
Dec-1979 Jan-1980 90,669
Jan-1980 Feb-1980 90,800
Feb-1980 Mar-1980 90,879
Mar-1980 Apr-1980 90,991
Apr-1980 May-1980 90,846
May-1980 Jun-1980 90,415
Jun-1980 Jul-1980 90,095
Jul-1980 Aug-1980 89,832
Aug-1980 Sep-1980 90,092
Sep-1980 Oct-1980 90,205
Oct-1980 Nov-1980 90,485
Nov-1980 Dec-1980 90,741
Dec-1980 Jan-1981 90,936
Jan-1981 Feb-1981 91,031
Feb-1981 Mar-1981 91,098
Mar-1981 Apr-1981 91,202
Apr-1981 May-1981 91,276
May-1981 Jun-1981 91,286
Jun-1981 Jul-1981 91,482
Jul-1981 Aug-1981 91,594
Aug-1981 Sep-1981 91,558
Sep-1981 Oct-1981 91,471
Oct-1981 Nov-1981 91,371
Nov-1981 Dec-1981 91,162
Dec-1981 Jan-1982 90,884
Jan-1982 Feb-1982 90,557
Feb-1982 Mar-1982 90,551
Mar-1982 Apr-1982 90,422
Apr-1982 May-1982 90,141
May-1982 Jun-1982 90,096
Jun-1982 Jul-1982 89,853
Jul-1982 Aug-1982 89,510
Aug-1982 Sep-1982 89,352
Sep-1982 Oct-1982 89,171
Oct-1982 Nov-1982 88,894
Nov-1982 Dec-1982 88,770
Dec-1982 Jan-1983 88,756
Jan-1983 Feb-1983 88,981
Feb-1983 Mar-1983 88,903
Mar-1983 Apr-1983 89,076
Apr-1983 May-1983 89,352
May-1983 Jun-1983 89,629
Jun-1983 Jul-1983 90,007
Jul-1983 Aug-1983 90,425
Aug-1983 Sep-1983 90,117
Sep-1983 Oct-1983 91,231
Oct-1983 Nov-1983 91,502
Nov-1983 Dec-1983 91,854
Dec-1983 Jan-1984 92,210
Jan-1984 Feb-1984 92,657
Feb-1984 Mar-1984 93,136
Mar-1984 Apr-1984 93,411
Apr-1984 May-1984 93,774
May-1984 Jun-1984 94,082
Jun-1984 Jul-1984 94,461
Jul-1984 Aug-1984 94,773
Aug-1984 Sep-1984 95,014
Sep-1984 Oct-1984 95,325
Oct-1984 Nov-1984 95,611
Nov-1984 Dec-1984 95,960
Dec-1984 Jan-1985 96,087
Jan-1985 Feb-1985 96,353
Feb-1985 Mar-1985 96,477
Mar-1985 Apr-1985 96,823
Apr-1985 May-1985 97,018
May-1985 Jun-1985 97,292
Jun-1985 Jul-1985 97,437
Jul-1985 Aug-1985 97,626
Aug-1985 Sep-1985 97,819
Sep-1985 Oct-1985 98,023
Oct-1985 Nov-1985 98,210
Nov-1985 Dec-1985 98,419
Dec-1985 Jan-1986 98,587
Jan-1986 Feb-1986 98,710
Feb-1986 Mar-1986 98,817
Mar-1986 Apr-1986 98,910
Apr-1986 May-1986 99,098
May-1986 Jun-1986 99,223
Jun-1986 Jul-1986 99,130
Jul-1986 Aug-1986 99,448
Aug-1986 Sep-1986 99,561
Sep-1986 Oct-1986 99,907
Oct-1986 Nov-1986 100,094
Nov-1986 Dec-1986 100,280
Dec-1986 Jan-1987 100,484
Jan-1987 Feb-1987 100,655
Feb-1987 Mar-1987 100,887
Mar-1987 Apr-1987 101,136
Apr-1987 May-1987 101,474
May-1987 Jun-1987 101,701
Jun-1987 Jul-1987 101,872
Jul-1987 Aug-1987 102,218
Aug-1987 Sep-1987 102,388
Sep-1987 Oct-1987 102,617
Oct-1987 Nov-1987 103,109
Nov-1987 Dec-1987 103,340
Dec-1987 Jan-1988 103,634
Jan-1988 Feb-1988 103,728
Feb-1988 Mar-1988 104,180
Mar-1988 Apr-1988 104,456
Apr-1988 May-1988 104,701
May-1988 Jun-1988 104,928
Jun-1988 Jul-1988 105,291
Jul-1988 Aug-1988 105,514
Aug-1988 Sep-1988 105,635
Sep-1988 Oct-1988 105,975
Oct-1988 Nov-1988 106,243
Nov-1988 Dec-1988 106,582
Dec-1988 Jan-1989 106,871
Jan-1989 Feb-1989 107,133
Feb-1989 Mar-1989 107,391
Mar-1989 Apr-1989 107,583
Apr-1989 May-1989 107,756
May-1989 Jun-1989 107,874
Jun-1989 Jul-1989 107,991
Jul-1989 Aug-1989 108,030
Aug-1989 Sep-1989 108,077
Sep-1989 Oct-1989 108,326
Oct-1989 Nov-1989 108,437
Nov-1989 Dec-1989 108,714
Dec-1989 Jan-1990 108,809
Jan-1990 Feb-1990 109,145
Feb-1990 Mar-1990 109,394
Mar-1990 Apr-1990 109,609
Apr-1990 May-1990 109,650
May-1990 Jun-1990 109,800
Jun-1990 Jul-1990 109,822
Jul-1990 Aug-1990 109,776
Aug-1990 Sep-1990 109,570
Sep-1990 Oct-1990 109,484
Oct-1990 Nov-1990 109,325
Nov-1990 Dec-1990 109,178
Dec-1990 Jan-1991 109,120
Jan-1991 Feb-1991 108,997
Feb-1991 Mar-1991 108,692
Mar-1991 Apr-1991 108,534
Apr-1991 May-1991 108,322
May-1991 Jun-1991 108,196
Jun-1991 Jul-1991 108,286
Jul-1991 Aug-1991 108,236
Aug-1991 Sep-1991 108,255
Sep-1991 Oct-1991 108,289
Oct-1991 Nov-1991 108,305
Nov-1991 Dec-1991 108,248
Dec-1991 Jan-1992 108,272
Jan-1992 Feb-1992 108,324
Feb-1992 Mar-1992 108,257
Mar-1992 Apr-1992 108,313
Apr-1992 May-1992 108,472
May-1992 Jun-1992 108,598
Jun-1992 Jul-1992 108,659
Jul-1992 Aug-1992 108,731
Aug-1992 Sep-1992 108,872
Sep-1992 Oct-1992 108,909
Oct-1992 Nov-1992 109,088
Nov-1992 Dec-1992 109,227
Dec-1992 Jan-1993 109,440
Jan-1993 Feb-1993 109,750
Feb-1993 Mar-1993 109,991
Mar-1993 Apr-1993 109,942
Apr-1993 May-1993 110,251
May-1993 Jun-1993 110,519
Jun-1993 Jul-1993 110,693
Jul-1993 Aug-1993 110,992
Aug-1993 Sep-1993 111,154
Sep-1993 Oct-1993 111,396
Oct-1993 Nov-1993 111,676
Nov-1993 Dec-1993 111,938
Dec-1993 Jan-1994 112,250
Jan-1994 Feb-1994 112,519
Feb-1994 Mar-1994 112,722
Mar-1994 Apr-1994 113,188
Apr-1994 May-1994 113,538
May-1994 Jun-1994 113,869
Jun-1994 Jul-1994 114,179
Jul-1994 Aug-1994 114,541
Aug-1994 Sep-1994 114,839
Sep-1994 Oct-1994 115,193
Oct-1994 Nov-1994 115,400
Nov-1994 Dec-1994 115,818
Dec-1994 Jan-1995 116,094
Jan-1995 Feb-1995 116,414
Feb-1995 Mar-1995 116,621
Mar-1995 Apr-1995 116,844
Apr-1995 May-1995 117,005
May-1995 Jun-1995 116,991
Jun-1995 Jul-1995 117,223
Jul-1995 Aug-1995 117,302
Aug-1995 Sep-1995 117,577
Sep-1995 Oct-1995 117,821
Oct-1995 Nov-1995 117,971
Nov-1995 Dec-1995 118,119
Dec-1995 Jan-1996 118,251
Jan-1996 Feb-1996 118,229
Feb-1996 Mar-1996 118,664
Mar-1996 Apr-1996 118,928
Apr-1996 May-1996 119,090
May-1996 Jun-1996 119,413
Jun-1996 Jul-1996 119,694
Jul-1996 Aug-1996 119,928
Aug-1996 Sep-1996 120,127
Sep-1996 Oct-1996 120,347
Oct-1996 Nov-1996 120,594
Nov-1996 Dec-1996 120,893
Dec-1996 Jan-1997 121,061
Jan-1997 Feb-1997 121,293
Feb-1997 Mar-1997 121,595
Mar-1997 Apr-1997 121,910
Apr-1997 May-1997 122,201
May-1997 Jun-1997 122,461
Jun-1997 Jul-1997 122,718
Jul-1997 Aug-1997 123,007
Aug-1997 Sep-1997 122,996
Sep-1997 Oct-1997 123,504
Oct-1997 Nov-1997 123,844
Nov-1997 Dec-1997 124,148
Dec-1997 Jan-1998 124,452
Jan-1998 Feb-1998 124,725
Feb-1998 Mar-1998 124,919
Mar-1998 Apr-1998 125,065
Apr-1998 May-1998 125,344
May-1998 Jun-1998 125,744
Jun-1998 Jul-1998 125,954
Jul-1998 Aug-1998 126,074
Aug-1998 Sep-1998 126,425
Sep-1998 Oct-1998 126,644
Oct-1998 Nov-1998 126,838
Nov-1998 Dec-1998 127,119
Dec-1998 Jan-1999 127,466
Jan-1999 Feb-1999 127,589
Feb-1999 Mar-1999 127,998
Mar-1999 Apr-1999 128,106
Apr-1999 May-1999 128,479
May-1999 Jun-1999 128,692
Jun-1999 Jul-1999 128,955
Jul-1999 Aug-1999 129,248
Aug-1999 Sep-1999 129,439
Sep-1999 Oct-1999 129,642
Oct-1999 Nov-1999 130,045
Nov-1999 Dec-1999 130,336
Dec-1999 Jan-2000 130,636
Jan-2000 Feb-2000 130,869
Feb-2000 Mar-2000 130,999
Mar-2000 Apr-2000 131,470
Apr-2000 May-2000 131,757
May-2000 Jun-2000 131,982
Jun-2000 Jul-2000 131,936
Jul-2000 Aug-2000 132,102
Aug-2000 Sep-2000 132,104
Sep-2000 Oct-2000 132,231
Oct-2000 Nov-2000 132,219
Nov-2000 Dec-2000 132,442
Dec-2000 Jan-2001 132,580
Jan-2001 Feb-2001 132,548
Feb-2001 Mar-2001 132,617
Mar-2001 Apr-2001 132,588
Apr-2001 May-2001 132,307
May-2001 Jun-2001 132,266
Jun-2001 Jul-2001 132,140
Jul-2001 Aug-2001 132,018
Aug-2001 Sep-2001 131,862
Sep-2001 Oct-2001 131,618
Oct-2001 Nov-2001 131,291
Nov-2001 Dec-2001 130,995
Dec-2001 Jan-2002 130,823
Jan-2002 Feb-2002 130,680
Feb-2002 Mar-2002 130,545
Mar-2002 Apr-2002 130,523
Apr-2002 May-2002 130,440
May-2002 Jun-2002 130,434
Jun-2002 Jul-2002 130,486
Jul-2002 Aug-2002 130,394
Aug-2002 Sep-2002 130,380
Sep-2002 Oct-2002 130,322
Oct-2002 Nov-2002 130,446
Nov-2002 Dec-2002 130,453
Dec-2002 Jan-2003 130,291
Jan-2003 Feb-2003 130,380
Feb-2003 Mar-2003 130,222
Mar-2003 Apr-2003 130,007
Apr-2003 May-2003 129,956
May-2003 Jun-2003 129,946
Jun-2003 Jul-2003 129,943
Jul-2003 Aug-2003 129,963
Aug-2003 Sep-2003 129,919
Sep-2003 Oct-2003 130,024
Oct-2003 Nov-2003 130,221
Nov-2003 Dec-2003 130,234
Dec-2003 Jan-2004 130,353
Jan-2004 Feb-2004 130,512
Feb-2004 Mar-2004 130,555
Mar-2004 Apr-2004 130,888
Apr-2004 May-2004 131,135
May-2004 Jun-2004 131,441
Jun-2004 Jul-2004 131,519
Jul-2004 Aug-2004 131,556
Aug-2004 Sep-2004 131,681
Sep-2004 Oct-2004 131,836
Oct-2004 Nov-2004 132,179
Nov-2004 Dec-2004 132,244
Dec-2004 Jan-2005 132,372
Jan-2005 Feb-2005 132,502
Feb-2005 Mar-2005 132,742
Mar-2005 Apr-2005 132,877
Apr-2005 May-2005 133,239
May-2005 Jun-2005 133,407
Jun-2005 Jul-2005 133,653
Jul-2005 Aug-2005 134,025
Aug-2005 Sep-2005 134,217
Sep-2005 Oct-2005 134,282
Oct-2005 Nov-2005 134,363
Nov-2005 Dec-2005 134,698
Dec-2005 Jan-2006 134,856
Jan-2006 Feb-2006 135,130
Feb-2006 Mar-2006 135,446
Mar-2006 Apr-2006 135,726
Apr-2006 May-2006 135,907
May-2006 Jun-2006 135,928
Jun-2006 Jul-2006 136,008
Jul-2006 Aug-2006 136,218
Aug-2006 Sep-2006 136,397
Sep-2006 Oct-2006 136,556
Oct-2006 Nov-2006 136,553
Nov-2006 Dec-2006 136,758
Dec-2006 Jan-2007 136,927
Jan-2007 Feb-2007 137,161
Feb-2007 Mar-2007 137,251
Mar-2007 Apr-2007 137,437
Apr-2007 May-2007 137,513
May-2007 Jun-2007 137,654
Jun-2007 Jul-2007 137,734
Jul-2007 Aug-2007 137,699
Aug-2007 Sep-2007 137,675
Sep-2007 Oct-2007 137,752
Oct-2007 Nov-2007 137,838
Nov-2007 Dec-2007 137,949
Dec-2007 Jan-2008 138,042
Jan-2008 Feb-2008 138,056
Feb-2008 Mar-2008 137,971
Mar-2008 Apr-2008 137,892
Apr-2008 May-2008 137,677
May-2008 Jun-2008 137,491
Jun-2008 Jul-2008 137,322
Jul-2008 Aug-2008 137,106
Aug-2008 Sep-2008 136,836
Sep-2008 Oct-2008 136,377
Oct-2008 Nov-2008 135,905
Nov-2008 Dec-2008 135,130
Dec-2008 Jan-2009 134,425
Jan-2009 Feb-2009 133,631
Feb-2009 Mar-2009 132,936
Mar-2009 Apr-2009 132,106
Apr-2009 May-2009 131,402
May-2009 Jun-2009 131,050
Jun-2009 Jul-2009 130,578
Jul-2009 Aug-2009 130,227
Aug-2009 Sep-2009 130,017
Sep-2009 Oct-2009 129,784
Oct-2009 Nov-2009 129,614
Nov-2009 Dec-2009 129,593
Dec-2009 Jan-2010 129,373
Jan-2010 Feb-2010 129,360
Feb-2010 Mar-2010 129,320
Mar-2010 Apr-2010 129,474
Apr-2010 May-2010 129,703
May-2010 Jun-2010 130,224
Jun-2010 Jul-2010 130,094
Jul-2010 Aug-2010 130,008
Aug-2010 Sep-2010 129,971
Sep-2010 Oct-2010 129,928
Oct-2010 Nov-2010 130,156
Nov-2010 Dec-2010 130,300
Dec-2010 Jan-2011 130,395
Jan-2011 Feb-2011 130,464
Feb-2011 Mar-2011 130,660
Mar-2011 Apr-2011 130,865
Apr-2011 May-2011 131,169
May-2011 Jun-2011 131,284
Jun-2011 Jul-2011 131,493
Jul-2011 Aug-2011 131,571
Aug-2011 Sep-2011 131,703
Sep-2011 Oct-2011 131,928
Oct-2011 Nov-2011 132,094
Nov-2011 Dec-2011 132,268
Dec-2011 Jan-2012 132,498
Jan-2012 Feb-2012 132,809
Feb-2012 Mar-2012 133,080
Mar-2012 Apr-2012 133,285
Apr-2012 May-2012 133,397
May-2012 Jun-2012 133,522
Jun-2012 Jul-2012 133,609
Jul-2012 Aug-2012 133,762
Aug-2012 Sep-2012 133,927
Sep-2012 Oct-2012 134,065
Oct-2012 Nov-2012 134,225
Nov-2012 Dec-2012 134,472
Dec-2012 Jan-2013 134,691
Jan-2013 Feb-2013 134,839
Feb-2013 Mar-2013 135,171
Mar-2013 Apr-2013 135,313
Apr-2013 May-2013 135,512
May-2013 Jun-2013 135,688
Jun-2013 Jul-2013 135,860
Jul-2013 Aug-2013 135,949
Aug-2013 Sep-2013 136,187
Sep-2013 Oct-2013 136,362
Oct-2013 Nov-2013 136,562
Nov-2013 Dec-2013 136,803
Dec-2013 Jan-2014 136,877
Jan-2014 Feb-2014 129,000
Feb-2014 Mar-2014 197,000
Mar-2014 Apr-2014 203,000
Apr-2014 May-2014 282,000
May-2014 Jun-2014 224,000
Jun-2014 Jul-2014 298,000
Jul-2014 Aug-2014 212,000
Aug-2014 Sep-2014 142,000

(Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Nonfarm Payroll Chart Since 1939

The following graph represents the updated nonfarm employment data since 1939.

Up to date chart for non-farm payroll data since the year 1939.

Historical Nonfarm Payroll Data – An Insight

January 27, 2014 in Historical and Research

Here is an insight of the historical non farm payroll data and the interrelationships of nonfarm employment with population growth and the strength of the U.S. dollar strength.

Nonfarm payroll data (often referred by the acronym NFP) is one of the most important economic releases to come out of the United States. It shows employment conditions and job growth in non-agricultural businesses in the U.S.

Unexpected changes in NFP data have been known to trigger very volatile moves in currency markets. Payroll numbers for December 2013, released January 10, 2014, surprised global markets with a smaller print than expected, causing the dollar to weaken sharply.

The resulting volatility again brought into sharp focus the significance of this data, particularly in these uncertain times when growth across the globe comes at a premium and markets have become so inter-linked.

This research note, inspired by the effects of the December 2013 NFP release, seeks to analyze the historical non-farm employment changes versus U.S. population growth and the strength of the dollar. The analysis covers 24 years of historical data commencing 1990

What happened on January 10, 2014?

The NFP report for December 2013 showed an increase of just 74,000 jobs compared to the addition of 241,000 positions in the previous reporting month. The consensus expectation was for an increase of 196,000 jobs.

The disappointing data caused the so-far bearish EUR/USD to jump up by 117 pips. A recovery being attempted by USD/JPY was short-circuited – instead it crashed through the psychological resistance of 105 and then extended the fall to 102.85, clocking a massive loss of 149 pips.

Similar volatility was observed in other currency pairs, too.

Part I: Historical non-farm payroll data (seasonally adjusted)

Before we go to the various charts, let’s have a look on the historical change in the seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment. The following table shows month by month change in the nonfarm payroll numbers since the year 1990.

Note 1: All the following figures are in thousands. The months mentioned are preceding months i.e. October 1990 would mean the data as on November 1, 1990. For the ready reference you may also wish to keep an eye on the up-do-date nonfarm payroll data since the year 1939 i.e. past 64 years. The non-farm payroll numbers are updated in case the originally released data is revised later on.

Yr/Mo

2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 Average
Dec  – 74 219 230 95 -220 -705 93 169 158 128 119 -163 -178 136 298 344 300 168 132 272 307 212 23 -59 95 90
Nov  – 241 247 174 144 -21 -775 111 205 335 65 13 8 -295 227 293 280 300 296 149 422 261 139 -58 -146 277 116
Oct  – 200 160 166 228 -170 -472 86 -3 81 343 197 121 -331 -12 405 194 339 243 146 208 278 178 12 -159 111 102
Sep  – 175 138 225 -43 -233 -459 77 159 65 155 105 -55 -243 125 204 219 507 219 244 355 239 35 32 -85 249 96
Aug  142 238 165 132 -37 -210 -270 -24 179 192 125 -44 -11 -155 1 193 353 -16 197 272 298 160 141 17 -208 47 69
Jul  212 89 153 78 -86 -351 -216 -35 210 372 37 20 -100 -125 165 290 118 281 232 79 364 295 70 -48 -40 39 76
Jun  298 172 87 209 -130 -472 -169 80 80 246 78 -3 47 -128 -47 266 212 255 279 232 313 174 60 88 17 117 83
May  224 176 125 115 521 -352 -186 141 21 168 306 -10 -9 -44 224 214 399 256 323 -16 333 265 126 -127 150 118 129
Apr  282 199 112 304 229 -704 -215 76 181 362 247 -51 -84 -282 288 374 278 290 160 160 353 308 157 -212 40 173 110
Mar  203 142 205 205 154 -830 -79 186 280 135 333 -215 -24 -28 471 106 144 313 264 223 462 -51 52 -161 214 192 108
Feb  197 332 271 196 -40 -695 -85 90 316 240 43 -158 -146 63 122 404 188 299 424 210 201 242 -66 -302 249 258 106
Jan  129 148 311 69 -13 -794 14 234 274 130 159 89 -129 -15 248 127 273 231 -21 322 270 310 50 -122 338 262 111

(Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Note 2: The yearly average shown is from the year 1989 to 2013. The average will be updated to take into account the 2014 figures at the end of the 2014.

In our analysis we will ignore the numbers of the years 2008 and 2009 which showed drastic job cuts due to the fallout of the Lehman Brothers collapse triggering global turmoil. Interestingly, we note that job losses had actually started before the Lehman Brothers shock. Job growth embarked on a declining trend from February 2008, whereas Lehman Brothers filed for the bankruptcy on September 15, 2008.

Part II: United States population growth rate and changes in nonfarm payrolls

The payroll data should not be analyzed in isolation. We should also take into account the population and the population growth rate. The following table shows the year wise population growth of the United States since 1990.

Year wise population growth of United States

Year

Population

Growth (%)

2013

0.71%

2012

0.70%

2011

0.70%

2010

0.80%

2009

0.90%

2008

0.90%

2007

1.00%

2006

1.00%

2005

0.90%

2004

0.90%

2003

0.90%

2002

0.90%

2001

1.00%

2000

1.10%

1999

1.10%

1998

1.20%

1997

1.20%

1996

1.20%

1995

1.20%

1994

1.20%

1993

1.30%

1992

1.40%

1991

1.30%

1990

1.10%

United States Census Bureau projected the total population as 317.3 million on January 1, 2014. According to 21st United States census the population of the U.S. in 1990 was 248.71 million i.e. an increase 68.59 million people i.e. a 27.58% increase. Please note that this data is for total population and not employable workforce. During the same time i.e. from 1990 to 2013, the nonfarm payroll numbers increased by 27.942 million. In January 1990 the total nonfarm payrolls were 109.394 million and hence in percentage terms the nonfarm employment increased by 27.29%. 27.58% population increase resulting in 27.29% nonfarm employment increase, doesn’t look so bad, right? It will be difficult to get into the deeper analysis of each and every point here, otherwise this article may turn into a book, however if the data is not very bad, it is not very good either. The macro view of the possible reasons is as follows:

Urbanization

Automation in farming and urbanization should in turn result in the increase in nonfarm employment. Automation is in all industry but balance in the employment number needs to be there.

Native versus immigrant population of the U.S. (Historical view)

The approximate number of immigrant population in the U.S. was 19.8 million in 1990s and it went up to 40 million in 2010. Not the percentage increase of 102.02% but the absolute numbers are more important here. Most of the legal immigration takes place with job guarantees or because of employment. Hence logically the percentage of employment of the immigrant population needs to be quite high. Now if we look at the data from 1990 to 2010, the number of immigrant population increased exponentially by 20.2 million. If we keep the increase in employment (nonfarm) which is 27.942 million from 1990 to 2013 and increase in immigrant population from 1990 to 2010 which is 20.2 million then the employment data may look much worse.

Before we go to check the visual representation of the comparison of the employment data in the United States against the population growth rate in a graphical way, it may be interesting to draw out some more information about the bests and worsts of these results from this data.

Year % Change in Nonfarm
2013 -0.32%
2012 4.28%
2011 105.77%
2010 -120.23%
2009 39.67%
2008 -424.39%
2007 -46.16%
2006 -16.63%
2005 23.03%
2004 870.67%
2003 -138.17%
2002 -69.05%
2001 -190.40%
2000 -38.63%
1999 5.73%
1998 -10.52%
1997 20.51%
1996 29.31%
1995 -44.09%
1994 38.13%
1993 141.59%
1992 -234.50%
1991 -375.88%
1990 -83.95%

The Bests and Worsts of Nonfarm Payroll

Before we go into the further analysis, let’s try to sort this data a bit more to draw some other useful information. Here are the bests and worsts of nonfarm employment figures.

Monthly average change since 1990

  • Best month: The best month is usually May. The average change in May nonfarm employment, during 1990 through 2013, has been 129,000.
  • Worst month: The worst month has been August. The average change in nonfarm employment during 1990 to 2013 has been 69,000 in August.

Best and worst years in absolute terms

  • Best Year: The best year was 1994 during which 3,851,000 jobs were added in the nonfarm category. The year 1994 saw net job additions during every month, right from January to December.
  • Worst Year: Unsurprisingly, the worst year was 2009, the year after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and the global financial crisis hit. The United States saw a fall of 5,052,000 job positions in the defined nonfarm sector in that fateful year. During 2009 no single month went without net job cuts. The second worst year was the worst year itself in the recent economic history. It was 2008 when the only month which saw an addition of 14,000 jobs and all other months witnessed job cuts. The other year which saw most months with job cuts was 2001. During 2001 the only growth in the nonfarm employment was seen in the month of February. The worst terrorist attack in the history was 9/11 which had major economic impacts. However the negative growth in the nonfarm payrolls had started much before September 2001. Year 2000 was a good year with an addition of 1,948,000 nonfarm payrolls but 2001 saw 11 months going with net job cuts. Was it because of the job losses due to the end of Y2K issue? Probably not but let’s analyze that also and we will cover that soon

Best and worst years as percentage over the previous year

  • Best year: 2004 is the clear winner here. That year witnessed a growth in employment in the nonfarm category by 870.67% as compared to 2003. In the year 2003, jobs grew by only 62,000, but during 2004 2,019,000 jobs were added by goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the U.S.
  • Worst year: The worst year was hands-down 2008, which witnessed a fall of 424.39% in non-farm employment. About 3,617,000 jobs were slashed this year, whereas 1,115,000 jobs were added in 2007.

Nonfarm Payroll Additions Versus Change in Population – Historical Chart

The following chart represents the year wise historical changes of the population of the United states and the change in the nonfarm employment in the respective year.

Year wise historical chart of US population growth versus nonfarm payroll additions

Now last not but least, let’s also see how the U.S. dollar performed against the performance of nonfarm payrolls historically. The charts below compare the US dollar index which measures the strength of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies 6 major currencies i.e. the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swiss franc (CHF) and the Swedish krona (SEK). The data ranges from the year 1990 to 2013

Historical chart of % change in nonfarm employment versus the US dollar index

The following chart shows the comparison of the historical changes in the US dollar index and the nonfarm payroll numbers since the year 1990.

Chart of historical comparison of nonfarm payroll data and the US dollar index.

Has there been any correlation?

Let’s just have a look if there has been any correlation between the strength of the US dollar against the performance of the nonfarm payroll data historically. Let’s check the above charts after joining some of the peaks and valleys. The following chart represents the correlation between the year wise change in the non-farm employment versus the US dollar index since 1990.

Correlation of nonfarm payroll and historical US dollar index

As we can see from the charts above that there has not really been any strong correlation between the strength of the US dollar index with the nonfarm employment. Interestingly, however, we can see that the correlation has been more on negative side i.e. when the performance of the nonfarm payroll was not good, the US dollar index strengthened and vice versa. The following chart shows this correlation between the non-farm payroll employment and the strength of the US dollar index, historically:
Year wise correlation between nonfarm payroll and US dollar strength.

Latvia adopts euro – Let’s revisit eurozone divergence and convergence

January 6, 2014 in Euro Zone, Historical and Research

Eurozone flagLatvia became the 18th country to enter the euro-zone and that brings  one more country with negative inflation under the umbrella of the single currency i.e. the euro. On the other hand this new addition takes the leadership position as far as the real GDP growth is considered. With the expected GDP growth of 4%, Latvia comes at the number 1 position in the euro zone. Euro has always attracted it’s fair, and many times unfair, share of criticism. The main arguments have always been same even if the words might have been different that those have been about  the economic diversity of the member states, or countries in this regard.

Criticism about the euro project

The main argument against the euro project has been whether or not the member countries meet the requirements to make this as an Optimum Currency Area (OCA) or Optimum Currency Region (OCR). The main requirements for an  Optimum Currency Area is flexibility to adopt to the changes in the economic situations and the convergence of the economic models and approaches.

Optimum Currency Area

  • Smooth flow of labor (labour) and capital with the changes in demand and supply situation.
  • Efficient fiscal flow mechanism with the openness for the government revenues to flow from stronger economic areas to the weaker ones in the times of crisis.
  • Not too much diversity and barriers which prevent the adoption to strategic, proactive and uniform monetary policies.

With Latvia’s inclusion, it’s time to revisit the divergence and convergence in the euro-zone, especially after a period of severe crisis situation in the euro-zone when the serious question were being raised about the survival of the euro. The following table highlights some of the economic factors like gross domestic product (GDP), GDP per capita, GDP growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, minimum wages, and governments’ debt to GDP ratio. Please note that the minimum wages are not applicable in some of the countries. Germany is supposed to declare minimum wage of euro 8.50 per hour from the year 2015. It is estimated that 17% of the workforce in Germany earns less than this amount.

Key economic data of Euro zone member countries

Country Member since GDP in billion euro –
2012
Population in millions
Latest data during the years 2012 and 2013
GDP per capita
(Prices- Year 2012)
Real GDP growth – expected in 2013 Inflation (Yearly basis)
Year – end of 2013
Average Inflation (Yearly basis)
Year 2000
Unemployment
(harmonized) end of the year 2013
Minimum wages applying Purchasing Prices Parity Debt to GDP – end of 2012
Austria 1-Jan-1999 € 323.28 8.44 € 36,400 0.40% 1.40% 2.34% 4.80% N.A. 74.00%
Belgium 1-Jan-1999 € 391.31 11.14 € 34,000 0.10% 0.97% 2.54% 9.00% €1501.82 99.80%
Cyprus 1-Jan-2008 € 18.59 1.13 € 20,000 -8.70% -2.13% 4.86% 17.00% N.A. 86.60%
Estonia 1-Jan-2012 € 17.68 1.34 € 12,700 1.30% 1.50% 4.01% 8.80% €320 9.80%
Finland 1-Jan-1999 € 202.25 5.41 € 35,600 -0.60% 1.40% 3.04% 8.40% N.A. 53.60%
France 1-Jan-1999 € 2,113.92 65.7 € 31,100 0.20% 0.70% 1.69% 10.90% €1430.22 90.20%
Germany 1-Jan-1999 € 2,750.60 81.89 € 32,299 0.50% 1.34% 1.44% 5.20% N.A. 81.00%
Greece 1-Jan-2001 € 201.52 11.28 € 17,200 4.00% -2.90% 3.15% 27.40% €683.76 156.90%
Ireland 1-Jan-1999 € 170.13 4.59 € 35,700 0.30% 0.30% 5.55% 12.60% €1461.85 117.40%
Italy 1-Jan-1999 € 2,488.26 60.92 € 25,700 -1.80% 0.66% 2.54% 12.50% N.A. 127.00%
Latvia 1-Jan-2014 € 22.95 2.03 € 10,900 4.00% -0.40% 2.64% 11.90% €284.74 70.00%
Luxembourg 1-Jan-1999 € 46.21 0.53 € 83,600 1.90% 1.20% 3.15% 5.90% €1874.19 21.70%
Malta 1-Jan-2008 € 7.06 0.418 € 15,300 1.80% 0.30% 3.04% 6.40% €697.42 71.30%
Netherlands 1-Jan-1999 € 624.71 16.77 € 35,800 -1.00% 1.47% 2.31% 6.90% €1477.8 71.30%
Portugal 1-Jan-1999 € 171.91 10.53 € 15,600 -1.80% -0.20% 2.85% 15.70% €565.83 124.10%
Slovakia 1-Jan-2009 € 74.12 5.41 € 13,200 0.90% 0.50% 12.17% 13.90% €337.7 52.40%
Slovenia 1-Jan-2007 € 36.79 2.06 € 13,200 -2.70% 0.70% 8.87% 10.10% €783.66 54.40%
Spain 1-Jan-1999 € 1,091.34 47.27 € 22,700 -1.30% 0.20% 3.43% 26.70% €752.85 86.00%

Sources: EuroStat (European commission), TradingEconomics and IndexMundi and world Bank.

There were 11 countries which joined the hands when the Euro came into the existence on January 1, 1999. The physical currency came into the existence much later in the year 2002. The virtual euro existed by pegging the exchange rates of the currencies of the member nations within a margin during 1st January 1999 to 2002 when the physical euro banknotes and coins were launched. The zone expanded to it’s current status of 18 countries under the umbrella.

The above data shows that out of 18 member countries, 8 countries are having negative growth of GDP i.e. the economies are shrinking, 4 are having negative inflation rate, 4 countries have a government debt to GDP ratio well over 100% with Spain expected to join that club soon and 10 countries have an unemployment level of over 10% with Spain and Greece well over 25%. GDP per capita has a wide range with Latvia at the bottom with euro 10,900 to Luxembourg at the top with euro 83,600. Latvia is also at the bottom as far as the minimum wages are concerned with a monthly minimum wage of 284.74 euro while Luxembourg again tops in this category with a minimum wage of 1874.19 euro per month. Belgium follows with 1501.82 euro per month with Ireland and France close behind with respectively euros 1461.85 and 1430.22 per month respectively.

Diversities are always there even in any single country but the easy flow of workforce and capital are much simpler in case of a single government and no issues about geographical barriers etc. The fiscal transfers or governmental aid to geographies in need are also simpler and efficient when there is one single country and single central government. Another major factor which comes as another strong barrier is lack of single language which again prevents easy flow of labor even if other hurdles are taken care of. Considering all these an economic zone with a group of nations would always have  challenges in becoming an efficient “Optimum Currency Area”.

While we are talking about the individual countries, let’s also check into some the comparison of euro-zone as a whole and the United States.

Euro zone and the U.S. Key Economic Data Comparison

Economic region GDP in billion euro –
2012
Population in millions
Latest data during the years 2012 and 2013
GDP per capita
(Prices- Year 2012)
Real GDP growth – expected in 2013 Inflation (Yearly basis)
Year – end of 2013
Average Inflation (Yearly basis)
Year 2000
Unemployment
(harmonized) end of the year 2013
Debt to GDP – end of 2012
US 15,680 314 49966 1.60% 1.20% 3.38% 7.00% 101.60%
EU 12195 337 31949 -0.40% 0.90% 2.03% 12.10% 90.60%

Please note that there may be some minor differences in the data because of rounding off to a whole number at some places where it does not matter much e.g. population etc and also some minor differences because of compilation of historical data from various sources even when the sources are authentic.

Syrian Conflict and The U.S. Dollar

August 29, 2013 in Forex Fundamentals and News, Historical and Research

If we search for “Syrian conflict and EUR/USD” or such search terms, we will find a lot of news items and predictions. Most of those would indicate a rise in dollar strength because it is considered to be a safe haven currency. Would you like to sell buy dollars against other currencies e.g. sell EUR/USD because of this reason?

EUR/USD – Unaffected of Syria

EUR/USD against the resistances
Well, I would not do that. If we really see the recent price action and today’s weakness in EUR/USD we can easily see that the drop is not really significant. From price action and psychological perspective the pair has been finding resistance below the psychological level of 1.3500 and that is quite natural. This psychological resistance is also finding strength from the 50% retracement level of the fall from 1.4940 to 1.2042, which is at 1.3491.

History of American attacks and the U.S. dollar strength

Let’s check on the previous two wars i.e. Afghanistan and Iraq to analyze how the dollar was affected during the time of first attacks.

Afghanistan war

After the 9/11 terrorist attack in the U.S., the attack on Afghanistan by the name of Operation Enduring Freedom was launched on 7 October 2001. The U.S. dollar, which was falling against the euro prior to the strike, gained immediate strength. The EUR/USD fell strongly with the start of the war.

Rise of USD with the start of Afghan attack

EURU/SD at the time of Afghanistan war

Invasion of Iraq

Now let’s see how the U.S. dollar moved at the time of Iraq strike.

EUR/USD during the start of Iraq war

EUR/USD during the start of Iraq invasion

Invasion of Iraq started on March 20th, 2003. The following chart shows the EUR/USD price action from the beginning of March 2003 to June 2003.

It is clear that the U.S. dollar sell strongly with the strike on the Iraq and that was completely against the safe haven theories of USD.

EUR/USD outlook with Syrian conflict

I would not recommend a buy or sell decision based solely on the safe haven characteristics with the Syrian conflict. The above two historical examples also make it clear. At the time of Afghanistan attacks a lot of sentiments were pro American strike after a terrible terrorist attack. The attack brought a confidence back in the U.S. dollar and USD started rising. Exactly opposite was the case with the attack on Iraq. There was a lot of opposition against the actions of America. The current situation is not very different from the attack on Iraq. General sentiments are not pro America and there is quite a lot opposition against any upcoming strikes. There are good chances that USD may fail to move as a safe haven currency and fall against the euro.

Other currencies

Japanese Yen

JPY may find strength as safe haven currency and USD/JPY, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY may fall further.

British Pound

GBP has a very strong correlation with the euro and hence GBP/USD would be expected in the same direction as EUR/USD.

Australian Dollar

Being a commodity currency the Aussie suffers with any negative sentiments on international level. Considering the ongoing weakness, further weakness may be expected.

Please do leave your comments in the comment box below to discuss this further.