FXDailyDose – November 28, 2013

November 28, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

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FX Daily Dose

Currency pair

Near-term Outlook

Comments – Overall Outlook

USD/JPY

bullish Yesterday we had indicated a move towards 102.30 to 102.50 resistance. USD/JPY has gone as high as 102.27 before finding some resistance but recovering again to 102.23. We still expect some more gains. If the pair breaks over 102.30 then it should target 102.48/102.52 range. This range had caused a strong resistance on May 28th and 29th and hence a caution will be required there. In case there is a decisive break over 102.52 then USD/JPY should target, first 102.88 resistance and then possibly the recent peak of 103.73.

EUR/USD

bullish Our outlooks for EUR/USD stays same as what we had mentioned in yesterday’s FXDailyDose. The pair had already touched 1.3613 and we, now, expect it to target 1.3680/1.3688 resistance. On the downside the first support is now expected at 1.3559. Any break of that may bring further consolidation towards the support range of 1.3518 to 1.3521 before a recovery from there. Overall outlook will stay bullish as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.3490.

USD/CAD

Neutral USD/CAD had broken over the 1.0583/1.0585 resistance to go as high as 1.0603 before losing some momentum. There is no change in our outlook from what we have been indicating for past couple of days. The overall outlook is mildly bullish but considering the fact that the pair is near some very strong resistance zone, a strong caution is required. The first support is now expected in the range of 1.0531 to 1.0550. With this support USD/CAD should target the strong resistance of 1.0609 first and maybe 1.0640 next. We will repeat what we have been indicating in the previous updates as ” During August 2010 the pair had faced a strong resistance at 1.0673 and from there it had fallen strongly first to 0.9445 and then to 0.9406. The next peak was at 1.0657 during October 2011 and that too had proven to be a very strong resistance. The pair had some bumpy ride after that before falling to 0.9633. The next resistance was faced at 1.0609 during July 2013.”

CAD/JPY

bullish CAD/JPY touched 96.68 and found some resistance. The pair again recovered strongly to 96.67. We expect some more upward moves but as we had mentioned yesterday that a strong resistance may come near 96.86. The current price action is quite close to that resistance and our views remain unchanged. We will quote from yesterday’s update – ” we wish to mention that the current price action is near a strong resistance zone and caution is required for any long position. Even though the overall outlook is mildly bullish but resistance is expected near 96.86 and even if there is a break above 96.86, a strong resistance should come at 97.11. On the downside any decisive break below the recent 95.90 may cause further consolidation towards 95.42. However as long as the price action stays above 95.00, the overall outlook will remain on positive side.”

GBP/USD

bullish GBP/USD broke over the resistance trend line which has been in place for over 4 years. It clearly indicates strong bullish sentiments and further upward moves are strongly expected. Till now the pair has touched the peak of 1.6346 and now the focus is 1.6381 resistance and with any break of that towards the psychological resistance of 1.6500 ranges. On the downside we expect support to hold in the range of 1.6220 to 1.6240. Any break below that may bring some more consolidation but as long as the price stays above 1.6138, the outlook will stay bullish.

EUR/GBP

Bearish EUR/GBP fell strongly to 0.8320. The overall outlook had been bearish but now the short-term outlook, which had turned to neutral, has also become bearish. However we shall wait for a break below 0.8316/0.8300 support zone as a confirmation for further fall. Any decisive break below 0.8300 should take EUR/GBP towards 0.8225 to 0.8240 support zone or more. On the upside resistance is now expected at 0.8390. Any break above that will turn the short-term outlook to neutral once again.

EUR/AUD

bullish Yesterday we had indicated the possibilities of a move towards 1.0460 and then possibly towards 1.5020/1.5030. EUR/AUD moved that way to go as high as 1.0490 before losing some momentum. Our outlook remains unchanged from yesterday i.e. further gains towards 1.5020/1.5030 should take place, however considering the psychological resistance of the approaching 1.5000 level we need to be cautious as any attempt to sustain over this level have been falling since June 2010. The first attempt had failed in June 2010 at 1.5015 and after the pair had gone into a downtrend to go as low as 1.1605. The second attempt had failed at 1.4994 and the third at 1.5031. However any decisive break over 1.05031 should open the doors for 1.5220/1.5255 resistance.

USD/INR

Neutral There is no change in our view about USD/INR and our outlook stays same as what we have been mentioning for past 2 days. To repeat the same: “Resistance is expected below 63.02 and with that some deeper moves may come, however as long as USD/INR remains between the support of 61.71 and resistance of 63.02, our outlook stays neutral. In fact even a break below 61.71 will be expected to come up against a very strong support at 61.50. As we have been mentioning that USD/INR is stuck between the psychological levels of 60.00 and 65.00 after failing to test 70.00. Note: Within next 6 months we expect a break below 60.00 to test 58.74/58.80 level.”

Check previous entries of FxDailyDose.

You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:

Daily Analysis:

  1. EUR/USD daily analysis
  2. USD/JPY daily analysis
  3. GBP/USD daily analysis
  4. USD/CHF daily analysis
  5. AUD/USD daily analysis
  6. EUR/JPY daily analysis
  7. GBP/JPY daily analysis
  8. AUD/JPY daily analysis

Weekly Forex outlook

  1. EUR/USD outlook
  2. USD/JPY outlook
  3. GBP/USD outlook
  4. USD/CHF outlook
  5. AUD/USD outlook
  6. EUR/JPY outlook
  7. GBP/JPY outlook
  8. AUD/JPY outlook

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