FXDailyDose – November 25, 2013

November 25, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

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FX Daily Dose

Currency pair

Near-term Outlook

Comments – Overall Outlook

USD/JPY

bullish USD/JPY should find support in the range of 101.10 to 101.35. With this support further gains towards 102.30/102.50 resistance zone is expected. Our outlook stays bullish but if there is any break below 101.10 then some further consolidation may take place towards 100.40/100.50 support before further recovery.

EUR/USD

Neutral Our short-term outlook stays neutral for EUR/USD. Resistance may hold at 1.3580 and in such case some drop towards 1.3465 to 1.3485 support zone may take place. On the downside if there is a break below 1.3460 then the focus will turn back towards 1.3399 or more.

USD/CAD

bullish USD/CAD had found resistance for the second time at 1.0568. We expect a break of this resistance as the short-term outlook is now mildly bullish. With a break over 1.0568 some further gains will be expected. However, please note that even in such case a strong resistance may come first near 1.0585 and then 1.0609 and hence a caution is required. In case USD/CAD manages a break over 1.0609 then it should target 1.0640 next. We also wish to mention the historical price action which shows that the pair is in a strong resistance zone. During August 2010 the pair had faced a strong resistance at 1.0673 and from there it had fallen strongly first to 0.9445 and then to 0.9406. The next peak was at 1.0657 during October 2011 and that too had proven to be a very strong resistance. The pair had some bumpy ride after that before falling to 0.9633. The next resistance was faced at 1.0609 during July 2013. 

CAD/JPY

bullish The outlook for CAD/JPY is mildly bullish but even in case of further gains a strong resistance may come near 96.86. Even if this resistance fails another strong resistance may be faced immediately above this at 97.11. Considering a caution is required even if the sentiments are bullish.

GBP/USD

Neutral GBP/USD is once again struggling at the resistance trend line which has been in place for past 4 years. Because of this resistance zone we stay neutral even if the sentiments are all bullish. We will expect any significant gains only if there is a break over 1.6260. Please do check this GBP/USD alert of today.

EUR/GBP

Neutral The overall outlook for EUR/GBP stays bearish but the immediate outlook is neutral. On the upside a resistance is expected at 0.8385 and if that holds then a retest of 0.8300 will be expected. Overall a break below 0.8300 is required to expect further significant weakness towards 0.8225 to 0.8240 support zone or more.

EUR/AUD

bullish The outlook for EUR/AUD is now mildly bullish for some further gains, first towards 1.4873 and then possibly towards 1.4920 to 1.4960 resistance. However any break below 1.4742 minor support will turn the focus downwards for some deeper consolidation.

USD/INR

Neutral Resistance is expected below 63.02 and with that some deeper moves may come, however as long as USD/INR remains between the support of 61.71 and resistance of 63.02, our outlook stays neutral. In fact even a break below 61.71 will be expected to come up against a very strong support at 61.50. As we have been mentioning that USD/INR is stuck between the psychological levels of 60.00 and 65.00 after failing to test 70.00. Note: Within next 6 months we expect a break below 60.00 to test 58.74/58.80 level

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