FXDailyDose – November 19, 2013

November 19, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments – Overall Outlook
USD/JPY Neutral Overall outlook of USD/JPY is bullish but some more downward consolidation can be expected first. USD/JPY had again tried to move up after the first failure at 100.43. The pair could not retest 100.43 and found resistance at 100.39. It tried to break the support of the Kijun line of daily Ichimoku cloud but the immediate support had made the daily candle to close just above that support level. Today again it is trying to break that support. The leading economic index and coincident index report from Japan came positive today. Though the overall outlook is bullish but we may see some downward consolidation. The resistance is expected in the range of 100.00 to 100.55. If the resistance holds and any break below 99.57 takes place then further consolidation towards 99.10 to 99.20 will be expected.
EUR/USD Neutral EUR/USD found resistance 5 pips below the previous resistance of 1.3447. If the resistance of 1.3447 breaks then further gains towards 1.3467 or even for a test of psychological 1.3500 may take place. This resistance is critical as it was not only a recent strong resistance level but also brings the resistance of the Kijun line as well as the lower edge of daily Ichimoku cloud. Any break over this will also represent a decisive break of the resistance of 55-day EMA. However, if this resistance holds then first level of support should come at 1.3474 and any break of that should take EUR/USD towards the next support zone of 1.3418 to 1.3432. A strong support will be expected there.
USD/CAD Neutral USD/CAD is in a support zone above 1.0398. First support is expected at 1.0405 and in case of a break a stronger support should come at 1.0398. The price-action is indicating a downward pressure and there are good possibilities that the support at 1.0398 fails. If such a move takes place then further drop towards 1.0360/1.0365 support zone will be expected. On the upside any break of 1.0484 will bring back the near-term bullish outlook back and a break above 1.0525 will confirm it. We are staying neutral initially.
CAD/JPY bullish CAD/JPY is finding the support of 200-day moving average currently. If support above 95.40 holds then further upward gains towards 96.17 and then possibly 96.40 are expected. However any break of 95.40 support should bring further downward consolidation towards 94.90. Please note that even if such a move takes place a minor support will be expected at 95.27. Our short-term outlook stays bullish, however in case of further gains a very strong resistance is expected in the range of 96.86 to 97.10.
GBP/USD Neutral The resistance at 1.6149 is critical for GBP/USD. The price-action has been in a sideways range and initially we stay neutral. In case a break over 1.6149 takes place then further gains first towards 1.6205/1.6208 and then possibly 1.6250 can be expected. However if the resistance holds and if GBP/USD breaks below 1.6082 then further drop first towards 1.6048 and then possibly 1.5988 may take place. We are staying neutral at the current price levels.
EUR/GBP Bearish The overall outlook for EUR/GBP stays bearish but the immediate outlook is neutral. SOme further gains cannot be ignored but the first resistance is expected at 0.8415 and even if it fails then a stronger resistance will be expected near 0.8440/0.8455. In any case we will expect another fall from below 0.8477. The first indication of a short-term bottoming and a better indication will be there if a break above 0.8520 takes place. On the downside good support will be expected at 0.8358 and a break below that will turn the focus back towards downside.
EUR/AUD Bearish EUR/AUD should find support at 1.4319 but if that support fails then further drop towards 1.4229 or more will be expected. We are mildly bearish for the short-term. The price-action is indicating a strong resistance of the psychological level of 1.4500 and if this continues then sooner or later first a test of 200-day moving average i.e. 1.4170 and then a retest of 1.4050 cannot be ignored.
USD/INR Neutral During the previous updated we had indicated that USD/INR should drop towards 62.30 or more. The pair has touched 61.71. Some more downward moves are expected but a strong support should come at 61.50. Considering this possible support our immediate outlook stays neutral. However, any break below 61.50 will turn the focus towards 60.56 or more. The current resistance at 64.17 has indicated a strong fear of the psychological level of 65.00 and considering this our near-term outlook stays mildly bearish but overall we are neutral for USD/INR.

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