FXDailyDose – November 14, 2013

November 14, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments – Overall Outlook
USD/JPY bullish USD/JPY jumped up strongly after falling to 99.10. The pair is still struggling below the psychological level of 100.00. The bullish sentiments are quite evident and our outlook stay same that a break above 99.80 should bring further gains towards 100.20. Overall outlook will stay bullish till support in the range of 98.92 to 98.94 holds but the continuous resistance below 100.00 is keeping us neutral initially. If this resistance holds then a retest of the support zone of 98.92/98.94 will be expected. Any break below this support should bring further consolidation towards 98.20/98.40.
EUR/USD Neutral Yesterday we had indicated the possibilities of upward move towards 1.3488. EUR/USD moved 8 pips above that to 1.3496 before finding resistance below the psychological 1.3500. We expect strong resistance below 1.3529 but any decisive break above this will be the first indication for a near-term bottoming and a better indication will come if the pair manages a break above 1.3547. However resistance continues below 1.3500 and a break below the recent 1.3390 takes place then the focus will turn back towards downside. However we will still stay neutral for further declines till the support of 1.3294 does not fail.
USD/CAD Neutral Yesterday we had mentioned that if USD/CAD breaks below 1.0463 then it should find a support and recovery from 1.0440. The support came exactly at 1.0440. The current price is 1.0472 when we are updating the outlook. The subsequent highs were getting higher but the recent resistance did not follow that pattern when USD/CAD found resistance at 1.0496. If support at 1.0440 holds and a break above 1.0508 takes place then we would expect further gains towards 1.0540/1.0545. Overall we still expect upward gains till the pair remains over 1.0398 but initially we are staying neutral till the pair does not break over the psychological resistance of 1.0500 decisively. If this resistance holds the focus will turn back towards downside.
CAD/JPY bullish Yesterday we had mentioned that we expect first resistance expected is at 95.22 and then the 200-day moving average at 95.51. As we had mentioned yesterday, four attempts to break below have failed during past four and a half months. The pair tried to break the first resistance by touching 95.27. Our outlook stays same as yesterday i.e. mildly bullish and we expect further gains towards 95.51/95.60. However to expect any substantial gains a break over 95.85 will be required. A break above 95.85 should bring further gains towards 96.80. This outlook will start neutralizing if the expected support in the range of 94.23 to 94.41 fails.
GBP/USD Neutral Yesterday’s strong jump which came with BOE’s Governor Carney speech and quarterly inflation report neutralized the immediate bearish outlook for GBP/USD. However, the price-action had just touched the short-term resistance trend-line and seemingly finding resistance there. The immediate outlook is neutral now and possibilities of a fall can still not be ignored. To expect a near-term bottoming first a break over the recent 1.6067 but most importantly 1.6120 is required. But in such case also we will expect the gains to be limited to 1.6247/1.6256 resistance. On the downside first support is expected at 1.6010 and if that breaks the a stronger support will be expected 1.5962. Any break below 1.5962 will be the first indication of the topping. Overall a break below 1.5854 will turn the focus back towards downside and in such case will expect further drop towards 1.5740 or more.
EUR/GBP Bearish Yesterday we had mentioned that we expected a resistance at 0.8477. The price fell strongly from 0.8463 to 0.8376 before losing downward momentum. Our overall outlook remains bearish for EUR/GBP but initially we stay neutral though if resistance holds below 0.8445 then we expect some more drop towards the support of 0.8323.
EUR/AUD Neutral EUR/AUD fell from 1.4484 to indicate that the psychological resistance of 1.4500 is still acting. EUR/AUD has been failing to sustain above the psychological 1.4500 for over 2 months. There is no change in our outlook and it stays same as yesterday that overall we expect a break above 1.4500 soon. Though initially we stay neutral but the neat-term outlook has turned mildly bullish. The bullish outlook will get further confirmation if a break above 1.4560 takes place. Such a break should result into a jump towards 1.4720 or more. On the downside any failure of 1.4229 support will be the first indication for deeper declines for a retest of 1.4050 or more.
USD/INR Neutral Yesterday we had mentioned that a break below 63.05 would be the first indication of a possible near-term topping. USD/INR broke the support of 63.05. We are staying neutral for USD/INR but we expect further decline towards 62.30 or more.

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