FX Daily Dose – November 12, 2013

November 12, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments – Overall Outlook
USD/JPY bullish USD/JPY has not yet broken over 99.67 resistance which we have been mentioning for past couple of days. However there is a break of the trend line resistance which has been in place for almost 6 months. Apart from that the medium strength bullish signal from daily Ichimoku cloud and break of 200-day moving average which we had mentioned yesterday, all indicate that some further upward gains can be expected. Still it is better to wait for a break over 99.67. In case this resistance fails then the next resistance will be expected near 100.20.
EUR/USD Neutral Yesterday we had mentioned the possibilities that EUR/USD may have some upward correction towards 1.3438 to 1.3449 resistance. The prices moved up to 1.3416. Our outlook says same as yesterday that if there is no failure of this resistance then further drop towards 1.3265 support is expected. If 200-day moving average support fails and a break below 1.3230 takes place then some further drop towards 1.3230 i.e. 55-week EMA should come. However any break above 1.3450 may take EUR/USD to test 1.3500. We are staying neutral initially but overall outlook is bearish.
USD/CAD Neutral Our outlook for USD/CAD remains same as yesterday. The pair is struggling with the psychological resistance of 1.0500 and is practically stuck between 1.0400 and 1.0400. The recent slight break above 1.0500 had found resistance just 3 pips above and the previous slight break below 1.0400 had found support just 2 pips below it. We stay neutral till a break on either side i.e. above 1.0503 or 1.0398 does not take place. Above 1.0503 USD/CAD will be expected to target 1.0545 and below 1.0398 it should target the support zone of 1.0320 to 1.0360. Possibilities of an upward break are higher if the support near 1.0430 holds.
CAD/JPY bullish On one hand a double top is in place on weekly chart but on the other hand CAD/JPY has been continuously finding support over 92.17. Four attempts to break below have failed during past four and a half months. Today we expect some more gains towards the resistance in the range of 95.45 to 95.60.
GBP/USD Neutral Our outlook for GBP/USD stays same as what we had mentioned in yesterday’s update. We now expect a resistance in the range of 1.6031 to 1.6040. If this resistance holds then any break below 1.5957 should bring further fall towards 1.5905 to 1.5894 support zone. The support at 1.5894 is critical and any break below that should bring deeper consolidations towards 1.5740 or more. Overall till any break above 1.6120 does not take place, we will remain in favor of a deeper consolidation.
EUR/GBP Bearish Our outlook remains bearish for EUR/GBP but initially we expect some more upward consolidation after the pair has broken over 0.8362 resistance. Further upward gains towards the resistance zone of 0.8416 to 0.8440 should take place. Even if this resistance fails, we will expect a deeper fall towards 0.8225 from the resistance below 0.8480.
EUR/AUD Neutral EUR/AUD’s fall after the interest rate decision of ECB was arrested by the dual support of 200-day moving average as well as the psychological support of 1.4000 ranges. however the pair has been failing to sustain above the psychological 1.0450 for over 2 months. This suggests that sooner or later we may seen a deeper consolidation if the support of 1.4000 fails. However today we expect some more gains but a strong resistance near 1.4385.
USD/INR Neutral Our outlook for USD/INR stays same as the pair is continuously facing resistance below the resistance zone we have been mentioning for past three days. The pair has moved up to 63.60 and is now in the resistance zone of 63.57 to 63.65 which we had mentioned 2 days back. Our immediate outlook for USD/INR stays neutral for any further gains till there is no break above 63.65. If this resistance fails then some more gains towards the resistance zone of 64.20 to 64.45 will be expected. The psychological pressure of 65.00 should start there. If the resistance continues then a drop towards 62.70 will be expected. Please also note that 63.97 is the 38.2% retracement of USD/INR’s fall from 69.52 to 60.54 and that makes the current resistance zone even stronger.

Check previous entries of FxDailyDose.

Comments are closed.