FX Daily Dose – November 11, 2013

November 11, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments
USD/JPY Neutral USD/JPY continues to find resistance below the resistance of 99.67 which we have been indicating in the previous updates of FXDailyDose. There has been an effort to break the resistance trend line which has been in place since May 2013, though the price could not sustain. There was also a medium strength bullish signal by the daily Ichimoku cloud and the price also broke above 200-day moving average after 3 failures. All these facts indicate the possibilities for further gains but we stay neutral for upside till any break above 99.67 does not take place. Today support should hold in the range of 98.50 to 98.80. A failure of this support may bring further downward move towards 98.20. An upward jump will be expected from there.
EUR/USD Bearish Some upward consolidation may take place towards the resistance of 1.3438 to 1.3449 resistance zone initially. If there is no failure of this resistance then further drop towards 1.3265 support is expected. If 200-day moving average support fails and a break below 1.3230 takes place then some further drop towards 1.3230 i.e. 55-week EMA should come. We are staying neutral initially but overall outlook is bearish.
USD/CAD Neutral USD/CAD found support 8 pips above the support of 1.0440 mentioned by us during the last update. The upward jump tried to break the indicated resistance of 1.0495 but immediate resistance came just 8 pips above it i.e. 1.0503. It is evident that the psychological resistance of 1.0503 is in place. Even if this resistance fails then a very strong resistance will be expected near 1.0545. In case the resistance below 1.0503 continues then a drop towards 1.0430 may take place. The crucial support still is at 1.0398 and in case the support of 1.0398 fails then a downward move towards the support zone of 1.0320 to 1.0360 will be expected. We stay neutral.
AUD/JPY Neutral AUD/JPY has lost the upward momentum and has gone into sideways mode. The short-term outlook stays neutral. In case there is a break of 92.34 support then further drop towards 91.55/91.65 support can not be ignored. I the support over 93.34 continues then a retest of 94.00/94.20 resistance can be expected.
GBP/USD Neutral GBP/USD continues to be below 1.6120 resistance as we have been mentioning in the previous updates. Our outlook stays same though the price action is clearly indicating the bearish is now increasing. To quote the previous outlook again – “If this resistance holds then a drop towards 1.5894 to 1.5905 is expected. However if there is a decisive break over 1.6120 then further gains towards 1.6180 will be expected. The support at 1.5894 is critical and any break below that should bring deeper consolidations towards 1.5740 or more.”.
EUR/GBP Bearish Our outlook remains bearish for EUR/GBP. If resistance holds below 0.8362 then another decisive break below 0.8323 should bring deeper decline towards 0.8225 or more. The short-term bearish outlook will neutralize with any decisive break over the expected support of 0.8385. Any break above 0.8362 may bring some further consolidation towards 0.8410.
EUR/AUD Neutral As we had mentioned during the previous update that EUR/AUD’s sudden fall after the interest rate cut decision of European Central Bank had tried to break below 200-day moving average support but the break did not sustain. That indicates that the 200-day moving average support is working. On the other hand the pair is now finding resistance below the 22-day EMA and has entered a sideways range below 1.4289. We stay neutral initially because even though the bearish pressure is clearly more but the recent support at 1.0450 did not only represent the 200-day moving average support but also the psychological support of 1.4000. EUR/AUD is clearly stuck between the psychological levels of 1.4000 and 1.4500. Even is there is any break above the current range a stronger resistance will be expected near 1.4380 and with that , in the coming days, we expect a drop towards 1.3960.
USD/INR bullish During last update we had indicated the possibilities of a move towards 63.57 to 63.65 resistance zone. USD/INR had moved up to 63.49 and resistance is being experienced in the resistance zone indicated by us. Our immediate outlook for USD/INR stays neutral for any further gains till there is no break above 63.65. If this resistance continues then a drop towards 62.70 will be expected.

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