FX Daily Dose – February 6, 2014
February 6, 2014 in FX Daily Dose
Forex Daily Dose- January 29, 2014: The FxDailyDose presents a quick snapshot of the price-action of EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, USD/INR, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/JPY for the immediate and medium-term outlook. Please note that the daily outlook is for current pairs in focus and we may add or remove some of the currency pairs accordingly.
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USD/JPY remains in a sideways mode after going as low as 100.75. The support has various angles to it e.g. the psychological support of approaching 100.00 level and 200-day moving average support. These support levels also become important considering the overall uptrend. However, considering the recent steep fall some more consolidation can not be ruled out. Even then the intraday outlook stays neutral as we had indicated in today’s report titled “What USD/JPY Is Waiting For To Decide The Near-Term Direction?“. We expect a direction to be dictated by tomorrows non-farm payroll report and till that time we remain in favor of some more sideways price-action or even some upward consolidation which may extend towards 102.00.
EUR/USD tried to recover after touching the low of 1.3476. The break of the 200-day moving average support and also the brief failure of the psychological support level of 1.3500 has brought the near-term bearish outlook into the picture and the possibilities of further deeper consolidations can not be ruled out. However, the failures of these both support levels have been brief and can not be termed as decisive. Not only the recent price action during this week has been directionless but the volatility has been too low to keep the immediate outlook nothing but neutral. We expect this situation to continue till the non-farm payroll report which is due to be released tomorrow. We stay neutral and away from trading EUR/USD till then.
USD/CAD’s fall from 1.1224 seems to have lost the momentum near the 22-day EMA support. The price-action is practically in a sideways mode over the recent 1.1031. However, the sideways range seems to be slopping down and there is denying that the short-term bearish pressures for further consolidation are in the picture. Even though our intraday outlook remains neutral but we do expect some more downward consolidation. Any break below 1.1031 should extend the fall towards 1.0990 or even 1.0960/1.0970 after a minor support near 1.1020.
CAD/JPY’s recovery from 90.81 seems to have lost momentum and the price-action is in a sideways range below a resistance at 92.22. The support at 90.81 was a natural one considering the psychological aspects of approaching 90.00 level. The strong fall is arguing against that support as the overall outlook for the near-term stays bearish to expect some more consolidations. However, initially we remain in favor of some upward correction. Any break over 92.22 may extend the corrective moves towards 92.70 to 92.89 resistance zone first and then possibly towards 93.23. However, if the resistance holds then any break below 90.80 should extend the fall towards 90.44 support next and then possibly a retest of 88.51.
GBP/USD is showing all signs to move downward for some more consolidation towards the next support level of 1.6217/1.6220. In fact the fall may extend to 1.6160 also. However the loss of volatility after the pair touched the recent low of 1.6252 is keeping our immediate outlook neutral. As mentioned in the EUR/USD and USD/JPY sections above, a direction may come tomorrow with the non-farm payroll report and till then some extended sideways moves or even some upward correction can not be ruled out.
EUR/GBP is hesitating in moving ahead with the recent attempt of recovery after touching 0.8333. Euro has been weakening against the British pound since February 2013 i.e. for close to 1 year. There is no change in the overall outlook that some more weakness should take place. However the immediate outlook is neutral but has a mild bullish flavor for some more recovery towards 0.8373 to 0.8394 resistance zone, if the pair manages a break over 0.8333.
EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.5832 represents the psychological resistance of approaching 1.6000 level. The fall, as of now has extended to 1.5060 and now the pair is in the psychological support territory of 1.5000 ranges. Even if some more downward moves take place, a strong support will be expected at or above 1.5035. We stay neutral but favor some upward correction first.
We stay neutral for USD/INR. On the upside the first resistance at 62.95 but then more importantly 63.49 is critical. Only a break over that will suggest a bottoming. Practically the USD/INR is stuck between the psychological levels of 60.00 and 65.00 after failing to touch the all time high of 70.00. We expect some extended sideways moves between the psychological 60.00 and 65.00 level. However the price action has been closer to 60.00 than 65.00 and hence the possibilities of a downward break is more, before another recovery takes place. Our immediate outlook stays neutral for USD/INR.
You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:
- EUR/USD daily analysis
- USD/JPY daily analysis
- GBP/USD daily analysis
- USD/CHF daily analysis
- AUD/USD daily analysis
- EUR/JPY daily analysis
- GBP/JPY daily analysis
- AUD/JPY daily analysis