FX Daily Dose – December 19, 2013
December 19, 2013 9:40 am GMT+0 in FX Daily Dose
“Forex Daily Dose” presents a quick snapshot of the price-action of EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, USD/INR, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/JPY for the immediate and medium-term outlook. Please note that the daily outlook is for current pairs in focus and we may add or remove some of the currency pairs accordingly.
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USD/JPY went up to hit the first target range i.e. 104.30 to 104.40, which we had indicated in the Forex Daily Dose of December 16th. The pair went up to 104.36 and found some resistance. Some more consolidation may take place but in such case we will expect a support at the previous resistance zone of 103.16 to 103.29. If this support holds then any break over 104.36 should take USD/JPY towards 104.70 to 104.80 resistance and then 105.00. The resistance of 105.00 may prove to be very strong but as the pair has face a long-term resistance before testing this level, we expect a break of that and any move above 105.00 should target 105.60. On the downside if the support at 103.16 fails then it may cause a short-term topping to extend the consolidation slightly more towards 102.90 but in such case also we would expect a test of 105.00.
EUR/USD’s broke the support of 1.3709 and then moved as we had indicated yesterday. The consolidation extended to 1.3649. Though the strong fall brings some bearish sentiments in the picture but the current price is at the support level of a short-term trend line. Just below this trend line the support of 55-day EMA is currently at 1.3617. With these support we expect a recovery towards the first resistance zone of 1.3723 to 1.3740. Any decisive break over 1.3740 should target 1.3800/1.3810 first then possibly the strong resistance zone of 1.3832 to 1.3858. However, any break below 1.3615 will turn the focus downwards for 1.3543 or more .
USD/CAD found support at 1.0609 i.e. 34 pips above the support mentioned by us yesterday and then after breaking over 1.0660 did break over 1.0700 to touch 1.0725. This is the highest point after May 2010 i.e. of past three and a half years. We now expect it to target 1.0854 of the week of May 24, 2010. Even if such case the resistance should start coming into the picture from 1.0800. On the downside the support is expected to hold in the range of 1.0669/1.0660. A failure of this support will delay further gains by extending the consolidation towards 1.0620.
CAD/JPY went as low as 96.48 which was 3 pips above the downside target which we have been mentioning during past couple of updates. Some recovery from there had taken the pair to 97.51 before another drop. Our outlook for short-term is mildly bearish as we had mentioned yesterday also. If resistance at 97.22 holds then we expect a retest of 96.48 and then possibly towards the 55-day EMA support i.e. 96.10/96.20 support. If support at 96.48 holds then focus will turn back towards upside for a test of 97.61/97.66. We would like to repeat what we have been mentioning previously also: a decisive break over July 24th’s 97.66 is required as an indication that bullish sentiments are not dying.
GBP/USD jumped up from 1.6217 strongly to touch 1.6484 before dropping to 1.6371. We now expect a support over 1.6336 and with that, we expect GBP/USD to overcome the psychological resistance of 1.6500. And break above 1.6500 should continue the gains towards 1.6545 to 1.6555 resistance zone. Do also check the chart alert which we had posted a couple of days back i.e. “GBP/USD enters the zone of strong supports“.
EUR/GBP broke below the 0.8350 support to go as low as 0.8339. The strong fall suggests that the upward consolidation might already be over at 0.8466 and the pair may continue the downward move. However, we remain neutral till a decisive break below 0.8274 support does not take place. On the upside, now, a break above 0.8414 is required to indicate any possibilities for further gains
EUR/AUD touched 1.5579 i.e. 1 pip below the first target we had mentioned yesterday. A strong resistance was witnessed there which caused a drop to 1.5423. If the support over 1.5384 holds then we would expect a retest of 1.5579 and then possibly 1.5620. Any decisive break below 1.5384 may extend the consolidation to 1.5332.
USD/INR found support at 61.31. The support came just 2 pips below the support we had indicated yesterday. We remain neutral initially and our outlook stays same as yesterday i.e. “Any break below 61.33/61.30 will be the first indication of topping. Overall we remain in the favor of further drop in the near-term and the only thing which is sustaining USD/JPY from further downward consolidation is the psychological support of 60.00. On the upside the first resistance is expected below 62.00 but overall only a break above 62.40 to 62.50 resistance will indicate the possibilities that a short-term bottom is in place.” .
You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:
- EUR/USD daily analysis
- USD/JPY daily analysis
- GBP/USD daily analysis
- USD/CHF daily analysis
- AUD/USD daily analysis
- EUR/JPY daily analysis
- GBP/JPY daily analysis
- AUD/JPY daily analysis