FX Daily Dose – December 18, 2013

December 18, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

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Forex daily dose

“Forex Daily Dose” presents a quick snapshot of the price-action of EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, USD/INR, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/JPY for the immediate and medium-term outlook. Please note that the daily outlook is for current pairs in focus and we may add or remove some of the currency pairs accordingly.

Do not hesitate in contacting us if you wish to know about our view for any specific currency pair.

Currency pair

Near-term Outlook

Comments – Overall Outlook

USD/JPY

Neutral USD/JPY has been continuing with the support pattern just above the 22-day EMA and though this support pattern combined with the recent break over 103.73 has been keeping the bullish outlook intact but the recent price action has been a sideways range since the markets opened on Monday and is also indicating some short-term bearish pressure. Considering this some downward consolidation can not be ruled out. We are staying neutral till the price action is stuck between 102.50 and 103.29. a sustained resistance near 103.23 may result in a correction towards 102.15 first and then possibly 101.62

EUR/USD

Neutral EUR/USD has been in a narrow sideways range since the markets opened this week. Though the overall outlook stays bullish but we are staying neutral initially till the price does not break out from the range of 1.3709 to 1.3810. Our outlook stays same as day before yesterday. Any failure of 1.3709 support should bring further consolidation towards 1.3680 or more. Any break over 1.3810 should take the pair for a retest of 1.3832 and then possibly further gains towards 1.3858 will be expected

USD/CAD

Bearish USD/CAD’s price action has fallen into a short-term descending channel. The current price is near the resistance trend-line. If this pattern continues then some more consolidation can be expected towards 1.0575 or more. However the support at 1.0572 may prove to be critical. And failure of this may extend the consolidation towards 1.0525 to 1.0535 support zone of 55-day EMA. This support is also near the support trend-line of above mentioned channel. On the upside any decisive break over 1.0625 will be the first indication of the possibilities of further gains but in that case the resistance of 1.0660 is required to see a retest of 1.0700 or a break above that. We are staying neutral initially.

CAD/JPY

Bearish Our outlook for CAD/JPY remains exactly same as day before yesterday except that the possibilities of a downward consolidation are more now. We will quote what we had mentioned day before yesterday: ” CAD/JPY seems to have stuck up below 97.61. Overall outlook remains mildly bullish as the lows are still getting higher but till a break above 97.61 takes place we remains neutral of upside. 97.61 is just 5 pips below July 24th’s 97.66 resistance and hence not just a break over 97.61 but a decisive break over 97.66 is required as an indication that bullish sentiments are not dying. If such a move takes place then the focus will turn towards 98.20/98.37 resistance first and then possible for a move towards 99.02. The recent support had come in the support range which we had mentioned in the previous update of Friday, December 13th and our views still remain same that the first level support is now expected in the range of 96.87 to 96.98. In case this support fails then further drop towards 96.45 may takes place before another recovery. The near-term outlook will stay bullish as long as the price-action stays above 96.30.”

GBP/USD

Neutral GBP/USD moved exactly as we had indicated in the day before yesterday’s “Forex Daily Dose”. Resistance came 6 pips below 1.6355 and then the fall took place to the indicated support zone of 1.6210 to 1.6220. The pair found support at 1.6217. This support was also just above the 55-day EMA support. We are staying neutral for the pair initially. If the resistance at 1.6355 continues and a break of the support zone i.e. 1.6210 takes place then further consolidation towards 1.6125 to 1.6140 can not be ruled out. However please note that the current price action is in a very strong support zone. Please check the chart alert GBP/USD enters the zone of strong supports.

EUR/GBP

Neutral EUR/GBP found resistance 10 pips below the resistance indicated in the day before yesterday’s FX Daily Dose. The pair should find support at 0.8390 and if that support holds then further gains towards 0.8466 will be expected. In case this support fails then it will indicated a topping and that should result in further falls 0.8350 or more.

EUR/AUD

Neutral EUR/AUD should find support at 1.5390 but if this support fails then further consolidations will be expected towards 1.5330. The recent drop indicates that the psychological resistance of 1.5500 is coming into the picture and that keeps us neutral for upside. In case a break over the recent 1.5484 but more importantly 1.5500 takes place then further gains towards 1.5580 or even 1.5620 will be expected.

USD/INR

Neutral USD/INR found support at 61.43. Our outlook stays same as day before yesterday and we will repeat that as: Any break below 61.33 will be the first indication of topping. Overall we remain in the favor of further drop in the near-term and the only thing which is sustaining USD/JPY from further downward consolidation is the psychological support of 60.00. On the upside the first resistance is expected below 62.00 but overall only a break above 62.40 to 62.50 resistance will indicate the possibilities that a short-term bottom is in place.

Check previous entries of FxDailyDose (The short URL, for your convenience, is http://bit.ly/FXDailyDose).

You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:

Daily Analysis:

  1. EUR/USD daily analysis
  2. USD/JPY daily analysis
  3. GBP/USD daily analysis
  4. USD/CHF daily analysis
  5. AUD/USD daily analysis
  6. EUR/JPY daily analysis
  7. GBP/JPY daily analysis
  8. AUD/JPY daily analysis

Weekly Forex outlook

  1. EUR/USD outlook
  2. USD/JPY outlook
  3. GBP/USD outlook
  4. USD/CHF outlook
  5. AUD/USD outlook
  6. EUR/JPY outlook
  7. GBP/JPY outlook
  8. AUD/JPY outlook

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