FX Daily Dose – December 16, 2013

December 16, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

“Forex Daily Dose” presents a EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, USD/INR, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and AUD/JPY for the immediate and medium-term outlook. Please note that the daily outlook is for current pairs in focus and we may add or remove some of the currency pairs accordingly.

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Currency pair

Near-term Outlook

Comments – Overall Outlook


bullish USD/JPY again found support just above the 22-day EMA. This support pattern has been in the picture for the third week now and though it suggests that the bullish sentiments are in the picture, we will wait for any decisive break over 103.39 as confirmation. Such a break should take the pair towards retesting 103.73 first and then possibly take it to 104.30 to 104.40 resistance thru 103.92 resistance. However, a sustained resistance near 103.39 may result in a correction towards 102.15 first and then possibly 101.62. Overall we stand by the view that sooner or later USD/JPY should be moving up to test 105.00.


bullish EUR/USD has tried to break over 1.3769 resistance and that suggests that further gains may take place before a downward consolidation. More than that, the break of 1.3737 had found support 14 pips over 1.3695 and that keeps the outlook positive. First support in now expected at 1.3728 and even if that fails then at 1.3709. If these supports hold then will expect another test of 1.3800. Any break over 1.3810 should take the pair for a retest of 1.3832 and then possibly further gains towards 1.3858 will be expected. Any failure of 1.3709 support should bring further consolidation towards 1.3680 or more. However, till the price action remains over 1.3618 critical support, the near-term outlook will stay on bullish side.


Bearish USD/CAD is still above the 1.0561 support but the price action is now indicating a bearish pressure for some more downward consolidation. If the support of 1.0561 fails then we would expect further consolidation 1.0520/1.0530 support zone. This zone does not only represent a previous support but also the 55-day EMA and the psychological support of 1.0500 level. In case and decisive break below 1.0500 takes place then it will indicate a short-term topping. On the upside a break over 1.0660 is required to see a retest of 1.0700 or a break above that.


Neutral CAD/JPY seems to have stuck up below 97.61. Overall outlook remains mildly bullish as the lows are still getting higher but till a break above 97.61 takes place we remains neutral of upside. 97.61 is just 5 pips below July 24th’s 97.66 resistance and hence not just a break over 97.61 but a decisive break over 97.66 is required as an indication that bullish sentiments are not dying. If such a move takes place then the focus will turn towards 98.20/98.37 resistance first and then possible for a move towards 99.02. The recent support had come in the support range which we had mentioned in the previous update of Friday, December 13th and our views still remain same that the first level support is now expected in the range of 96.87 to 96.98. In case this support fails then further drop towards 96.45 may takes place before another recovery. The near-term outlook will stay bullish as long as the price-action stays above 96.30.


Bearish GBP/USD has recovered slightly with the market opening on Monday, however we still expect a resistance near 1.6355. If this resistance holds then a retest of 1.6262 and with a break of that support further consolidation towards 1.6210 to 1.6220 range will be expected. As we have been saying that the overall outlook stays positive for a test of 1.6500 in the coming days but we expect some more consolidation before that. On the upside the resistance at 1.6418 is critical and only a break above that will indicate that the sentiments favor further gains before a consolidation takes place.


bullish EUR/GBP found support over the support zone indicated by us during the previous update of Forex Daily Dose. We remain in favor of further upward consolidation but a better indication of the same will only come if a break over 0.8440 takes place. The sentiments are all set for some upward consolidation but the resistance of the approaching 0.8500 psychological level seems to be keeping EUR/GBP in check. A break over 0.8440 should take the pair towards 0.8475 thru 0.8462/0.8463 resistance. However the resistance at 0.8477 is critical and if that holds then another fall should take place. Considering this we will remain cautious before any break of 0.8500 psychological level takes place. The support is again expected in the range of 0.8380 to 0.8390 and a failure of that will signal the topping.


Neutral EUR/AUD had broken below the first level support indicated by us during the previous update i.e. 1.5350 but found support at 1.5312 and then moved to 1.5413. We remain in favor of further gains if there is a break of the 1.5432 resistance. However, considering the resistance of the psychological level of 1.5500, we stay cautious and neutral. a break over 1.5432 should take the pair further up for a retest of 1.5462 of May 2010. Our near term outlook stays bullish as long as the price -action stays above 1.5180/1.5189 support zone.


Neutral USD/INR dropped to 61.72. During the previous update for “Forex Daily Dose” we had mentioned that we will remain cautious as long as the price is below the resistance zone of 62.40 to 62.50. We remain neutral for USD/INR. Any break below 61.33 will be the first indication of topping. Overall we remain in the favor of further drop in the near-term and the only thing which is sustaining USD/JPY from further downward consolidation is the psychological support of 60.00.

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You may also check the daily and weekly analysis for 8 currency pairs on the following pages:

Daily Analysis:

  1. EUR/USD daily analysis
  2. USD/JPY daily analysis
  3. GBP/USD daily analysis
  4. USD/CHF daily analysis
  5. AUD/USD daily analysis
  6. EUR/JPY daily analysis
  7. GBP/JPY daily analysis
  8. AUD/JPY daily analysis

Weekly Forex outlook

  1. EUR/USD outlook
  2. USD/JPY outlook
  3. GBP/USD outlook
  4. USD/CHF outlook
  5. AUD/USD outlook
  6. EUR/JPY outlook
  7. GBP/JPY outlook
  8. AUD/JPY outlook

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