EUR/USD Today – 2012/10/04

October 4, 2012 in Forex Analysis

EUR/USD inched upwards but all the price action has been below the recent 1.2968. The upward gains have not yet retested that level. Over all a sideways movement the currency pair has been engaged in for past couple of days.

EUR/USD Daily Chart:


EUR/USD daily chart October 4 2012

Today we have Interest Rate decision from Euro zone. The decision is schedule at 11:45 GMT but ECB is expected to keep the benchmark rate same at 0.75%. The important even from Euro zone is ECB’s Monetary policy statement and press conference. Scheduled at 12:30 GMT this may cause some volatility on either side.

Other volatility causing events for today are Jobless Claims releases from US at the same time i.e. 12:30 GMT. The initial jobless claims are expected to go up to 370K from the previous 359K. In case the ECB press conference generates some optimism and if the data of jobless claims comes out worse than 370K that it may give a stronger than normal push to EUR/USD to test the psychological 1.3000 or above.

US Factory Order report at 14:00 GMT is another important release today. The outlook for the factory orders is poor and a drop to -5.8% from the previous +2.8% is expected. Again if the date comes worse it may have a stronger than normal movement for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD – What to Expect


The pair has been having a rather sleepy day without much volatility but then there is always a silence before the storm (may be not always but why to miss a chance to use these famous words). What we expect that during the US session some strong movement may be seen. This should come at the time of the above mentioned releases. Overall uncertainties and  a conflict between the optimism and pessimism has been continuing and that situation is expected to remain same. The movement can be towards either side. While saying this we would also mention that the 5-day EMA has crossed over 22-day EMA again to give a bullish signal.

As of now it may be better to be away from entering EUR/USD positions till some better indication about the direction comes up.


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