Currency Speculators increased bullish US Dollar bets for 1st time in 4 weeks

July 13, 2014 in Forex Analysis

By CountingPips.com

usd-cots

The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and speculators slightly added to their US dollar bullish bets last week for the first time in four weeks.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $10.34 billion as of Tuesday July 8th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$1.69 billion from the $8.65 billion total long position that was registered on July 1st, according to the calculation by Reuters that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The aggregate US dollar position had fallen for three straight weeks before last week’s turnaround. The overall dollar standing has now remained on the bullish side for nine consecutive weeks after crossing from bearish to bullish on May 13th.

Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:

cot-standings

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators bet in favor of the euro, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar while there were weekly decreases for the British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso.

This latest COT data is through Tuesday July 8th and provides a snapshot of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were betting in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

  • Canadian dollar positions continued higher after turning bullish (for the first time since February 2, 2013) on July 1st. CAD bets have increased four straight weeks as Canadian dollar strength has pushed the USDCAD exchange rate under 1.0700
  • Euro bearish positions edged lower last week. Bearish bets are hovering near -60,000 contracts for a 5th week and potentially signaling this could be a near term bottoming in bearish positions
  • British pound sterling positions saw bullish bets fall sharply last week off of the highest level of the year
  • Japanese yen short positions rebounded last week & went back over -60,000 contracts. The USDJPY has been under the 102 level for a third straight week
  • Australian dollar net positions edged lower last week after overall bullish positions reached a new high level since April 2013 the previous week
  • New Zealand dollar positions advanced for a third week as the NZDUSD exchange rate continues to trade higher and above 0.8750 last week

Please see individual currency charts and more data below.




Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

eurofx

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/03/2014 280747 57109 90134 -33025 -16392
06/10/2014 331636 43739 100924 -57185 -24160
06/17/2014 285489 51405 113240 -61835 -4650
06/24/2014 291244 55062 112565 -57503 4332
07/01/2014 291488 52665 113441 -60776 -3273
07/08/2014 294381 51595 110860 -59265 1511



British Pound Sterling:

gbp

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/03/2014 239604 79476 44502 34974 -330
06/10/2014 271602 85202 49360 35842 868
06/17/2014 250231 100434 47838 52596 16754
06/24/2014 254369 98098 48347 49751 -2845
07/01/2014 255911 99929 43517 56412 6661
07/08/2014 254788 86614 44975 41639 -14773



Japanese Yen:

jpy

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/03/2014 171804 12578 86796 -74218 -15182
06/10/2014 201094 11893 94055 -82162 -7944
06/17/2014 153007 17832 85870 -68038 14124
06/24/2014 148257 10325 81548 -71223 -3185
07/01/2014 156480 18739 77425 -58686 12537
07/08/2014 157710 11174 77549 -66375 -7689



Swiss Franc:

chf

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/03/2014 48936 11907 13919 -2012 1860
06/10/2014 52445 9615 12645 -3030 -1018
06/17/2014 32259 15296 11776 3520 6550
06/24/2014 33599 9069 14441 -5372 -8892
07/01/2014 35221 9731 16991 -7260 -1888
07/08/2014 35053 9136 15949 -6813 447



Canadian Dollar:

cad

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/03/2014 130275 32519 55250 -22731 -921
06/10/2014 125832 30303 54411 -24108 -1377
06/17/2014 132209 34582 56115 -21533 2575
06/24/2014 103193 40595 45915 -5320 16213
07/01/2014 111438 44755 42060 2695 8015
07/08/2014 128555 58245 47950 10295 7600



Australian Dollar:

aud

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/03/2014 110911 56811 35284 21527 5679
06/10/2014 128984 62141 33894 28247 6720
06/17/2014 99400 61078 34049 27029 -1218
06/24/2014 101998 65612 32149 33463 6434
07/01/2014 114918 76598 37719 38879 5416
07/08/2014 101860 66705 30102 36603 -2276



New Zealand Dollar:

nzd

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/03/2014 30066 22400 4869 17531 -413
06/10/2014 32946 20401 3546 16855 -676
06/17/2014 28467 21671 17938 3733 -13122
06/24/2014 31415 24855 18703 6152 2419
07/01/2014 33455 26563 17578 8985 2833
07/08/2014 36123 26750 12334 14416 5431



Mexican Peso:

mxn

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/03/2014 162647 105666 19650 86016 2715
06/10/2014 200202 106566 16363 90203 4187
06/17/2014 135017 91227 22152 69075 -21128
06/24/2014 128333 84943 15974 68969 -106
07/01/2014 129425 85387 15825 69562 593
07/08/2014 126231 82777 13966 68811 -751



*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.




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