USD/JPY – Will go up by 36 pips or 59 pips?

June 2, 2014 in Chart Alert

USD/JPY had tried to breach 101.43 support but just by 1 pip. The pair had jumped up from 101.42. purely from technical and price-action point of views, the recent moves have a bit or story to tell. And well, that story may be a base to predict the immediate future moves of USD/JPY.

To start with, the USD/JPY is clearly fallen into a sideways mode between the psychological levels of 100.00 and 105.00. The recent low was at 100.82 on May 21, 2014. This support had come 7 pips above the previous support at 100.75. This fact goes in the favor that 100.00 is having it’s psychological edge.

Let’s wee what happened today?

The pair broke the 55-day EMA

Well, we still need to see if this break sustains or not but at least as of now this statement stands true.

The pair found resistance at the lower edge of the cloud but overcame that

Well, again we need to wait for a bit to see if that sustains or not but yes, the pair struggled a bit against the lower edge of the daily Ichimoku cloud but then overcame it to break that resistance.

Now what?

102.14 may prove to be a minor resistance. However, I doubt that resistance will sustain. A failure of that should take the currency pair to test 102.36. However, the pair, then should test the 200-day moving average resistance at 102.59 and then possibly 102.75.

If all the above mentioned resistances fail then we will look forward to 104 ranges.

Let’s have a look on the charts which show all the above mentioned facts:

Break of 55-day EMA and a head and shoulder pattern coming into the picture

Chart showing the break of 55-day EMA resistance and the emerging head and shoulders pattern

Apart from all the other points, please do not miss the emerging head and shoulder pattern in the above chart. This pattern will only complete with a break over 102.36 but the probability is quite high.

USD/JPY and the 200-day moving average resistance

USD/JPY daily chart, indicating that the resistance of the lower edge of the daily Ichimoku cloud is failing.

Daily MACD remains bullish for USD/JPY

Daily MACD remains over the signal line - A bullish sign for near-term.

2 responses to USD/JPY – Will go up by 36 pips or 59 pips?

  1. Thanks Olivier. We try to do our best and this was a sure shot :)

  2. Again a great and confident one. I bought USD/JPY as soon as I got the alert mail for this update and made 40 pips profit. Thanks :)