GBP/USD Outlook – 2012/10/9
October 8, 2012 11:21 pm in Forex Analysis
As expected and as we have been mentioning in previous analysis, GBP/USD continued it’s downward consolidation and even broke below the short term price action channel (please see the daily chart below). There has been an effort to break below the 55-day EMA support (red EMA line in the GBP/USD daily chart) and though we can say that this support has also broken but it is still in the early stage and more confirmation is needed.
For past 11 hours the pair has gone into a side ways mode over 1.6020. A nice example of psychological effect of numbers or in this case 1.6000 psychological support.
GBP/USD Today – Hourly Chart
GBP/USD Today – Daily Chart
GBP/USD Economic Releases:
U.S.: As mentioned yesterday that due to Federal holiday because of Columbus day there was no economic release from US yesterday and in fact nothing important is schedule for today also.
UK: Just a couple of minutes back the RICS Housing Price Balance release showed some positive numbers. The previous data was -18% and the expectation were lower than that for -20% but the fresh data showed a change of -15% which was quite better than the previous release as well as the consensus. The BRC Retail Sales Monitor also came out with a better figure of 1.50% change as against the expected -0.35% and the previous -0.40%.
GBP/USD – What to Expect:
Considering the psychological push of 1.6000 and the currency pairs hesitation to touch base with that for past 11 hours, even a slight positive news could have made the pair jump for some upward consolidation. But considering the early morning Asian session when traders in Japan are yet to open their office doors after yesterday’s national holiday and the traders and trading volumes are less, not much impact of any release was expected. But still we would expect some upward consolidation before another fall towards 1.5960/1.5950 level takes place to complete 38.2% retracement. Please check the previous posts about GBP/USD for more details.
On the upside a move can take place towards 1.6066 resistance or even 1.6080. Any strong break over 1.6080 will be the first sign of short-term bottoming.