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FX Daily Dose – November 11, 2013

November 11, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments
USD/JPY Neutral USD/JPY continues to find resistance below the resistance of 99.67 which we have been indicating in the previous updates of FXDailyDose. There has been an effort to break the resistance trend line which has been in place since May 2013, though the price could not sustain. There was also a medium strength bullish signal by the daily Ichimoku cloud and the price also broke above 200-day moving average after 3 failures. All these facts indicate the possibilities for further gains but we stay neutral for upside till any break above 99.67 does not take place. Today support should hold in the range of 98.50 to 98.80. A failure of this support may bring further downward move towards 98.20. An upward jump will be expected from there.
EUR/USD Bearish Some upward consolidation may take place towards the resistance of 1.3438 to 1.3449 resistance zone initially. If there is no failure of this resistance then further drop towards 1.3265 support is expected. If 200-day moving average support fails and a break below 1.3230 takes place then some further drop towards 1.3230 i.e. 55-week EMA should come. We are staying neutral initially but overall outlook is bearish.
USD/CAD Neutral USD/CAD found support 8 pips above the support of 1.0440 mentioned by us during the last update. The upward jump tried to break the indicated resistance of 1.0495 but immediate resistance came just 8 pips above it i.e. 1.0503. It is evident that the psychological resistance of 1.0503 is in place. Even if this resistance fails then a very strong resistance will be expected near 1.0545. In case the resistance below 1.0503 continues then a drop towards 1.0430 may take place. The crucial support still is at 1.0398 and in case the support of 1.0398 fails then a downward move towards the support zone of 1.0320 to 1.0360 will be expected. We stay neutral.
AUD/JPY Neutral AUD/JPY has lost the upward momentum and has gone into sideways mode. The short-term outlook stays neutral. In case there is a break of 92.34 support then further drop towards 91.55/91.65 support can not be ignored. I the support over 93.34 continues then a retest of 94.00/94.20 resistance can be expected.
GBP/USD Neutral GBP/USD continues to be below 1.6120 resistance as we have been mentioning in the previous updates. Our outlook stays same though the price action is clearly indicating the bearish is now increasing. To quote the previous outlook again – “If this resistance holds then a drop towards 1.5894 to 1.5905 is expected. However if there is a decisive break over 1.6120 then further gains towards 1.6180 will be expected. The support at 1.5894 is critical and any break below that should bring deeper consolidations towards 1.5740 or more.”.
EUR/GBP Bearish Our outlook remains bearish for EUR/GBP. If resistance holds below 0.8362 then another decisive break below 0.8323 should bring deeper decline towards 0.8225 or more. The short-term bearish outlook will neutralize with any decisive break over the expected support of 0.8385. Any break above 0.8362 may bring some further consolidation towards 0.8410.
EUR/AUD Neutral As we had mentioned during the previous update that EUR/AUD’s sudden fall after the interest rate cut decision of European Central Bank had tried to break below 200-day moving average support but the break did not sustain. That indicates that the 200-day moving average support is working. On the other hand the pair is now finding resistance below the 22-day EMA and has entered a sideways range below 1.4289. We stay neutral initially because even though the bearish pressure is clearly more but the recent support at 1.0450 did not only represent the 200-day moving average support but also the psychological support of 1.4000. EUR/AUD is clearly stuck between the psychological levels of 1.4000 and 1.4500. Even is there is any break above the current range a stronger resistance will be expected near 1.4380 and with that , in the coming days, we expect a drop towards 1.3960.
USD/INR bullish During last update we had indicated the possibilities of a move towards 63.57 to 63.65 resistance zone. USD/INR had moved up to 63.49 and resistance is being experienced in the resistance zone indicated by us. Our immediate outlook for USD/INR stays neutral for any further gains till there is no break above 63.65. If this resistance continues then a drop towards 62.70 will be expected.

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FX Daily Dose – November 8, 2013

November 8, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments
USD/JPY Neutral USD/JPY had a sudden jump after ECB’s unexpected interest rate cut. The pair broke above the 200-day moving average by touching 99.41. The resistance was faced in the range of 99.38 to 99.67 exactly as we had mentioned in the previous FXDailyDose. The fall after this strong jump was equally strong. We still expect support over 97.55. If this support fails then a strong support should come at 97.20. However, considering the recent non-directional volatile move, we stay neutral.
EUR/USD Bearish EUR/USD broke the indicated support of 1.3560/1.3580 and then not only fell to the indicated 1.3340 to 1.3389 support zone but went as low as 1.3294 before recovering to some extent. This strong fall is attributed to ECB’s unexpected interest rate cut to 0.25%. The immediate outlook stays neutral but overall we stay bearish. Resistance is expected below 1.3465 and with that further fall 1.3260 or more should come.
USD/CAD Neutral We have been mentioning resistance below 1.0495 and support at or over 1.0398. USD/CAD found support as indicated just over 1.0398. The recovery from 1.0405 took it to 1.0463 and lost momentum ahead of 1.0495. We can see some more upward gains if support holds near 1.0440 but our outlook for USD/CAD remains same as what we had mentioned in yesterday. Current price action is finding support just over 22-day EMA. We will repeat what we mentioned yesterday that in case the support of 1.0398 fails then a downward move towards the support zone of 1.0320 to 1.0360 will be expected. We stay neutral.
AUD/JPY Neutral AUD/JPY could not break the resistance of 94.20 which we had mentioned yesterday and fell sharply from 94.09. The pair broke below the indicated support of 92.66 to touch 92.34 before recovering slightly to 92.90. Some more downward moves can be seen today but we stay neutral initially to expect a support near 92.00.
GBP/USD Neutral GBP/USD continues to find resistance below 1.6120 as we have been mentioning for past 2 days. Our outlook stays same. To quote it again “If this resistance holds then a drop towards 1.5894 to 1.5905 is expected. However if there is a decisive break over 1.6120 then further gains towards 1.6180 will be expected. The support at 1.5894 is critical and any break below that should bring deeper consolidations towards 1.5740 or more.”
EUR/GBP Bearish We had indicated resistance in the range of 0.8444 to 0.8451 but resistance was face below that at 0.8412. Then as indicated the pair fell sharply and broke the support of 0.8332 to touch 0.8300 before recovering to 0.8335. Our outlook remains bearish for EUR/GBP. Another decisive break below 0.8332 should bring deeper decline towards 0.8225 or more. The short-term bearish outlook will neutralize with any decisive break over the expected support of 0.8385.
EUR/AUD Neutral EUR/AUD fell sharply with ECB’s rate cut decision. The pair tried to break below the support of 200-day EMA but found support just below it and recovered from 1.4050 to 1.4166. Though the short-term outlook has become bearish but initially a neutral approach is required because of the support observed just below the 200-day moving average and also the psychological support of 1.4000 ranges. Another break below 1.4124 support should bring deeper declines to retest 1.4050 or even towards 1.4000.
USD/INR bullish Yesterday we had indicated that USD/INR should move up further. The pair moved that way to 62.70. The current price action is just below the indicated resistance of 62.94 and initially we stay neutral. If there is a break above 62.94 then then further upward moves towards the resistance zone of 63.57 to 63.65 should take place.

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FX Daily Dose – November 7, 2013

November 7, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments
USD/JPY bullish USD/JPY again broke above the daily Ichimoku cloud but is still struggling below the 200-day moving average. Our views remain exactly same as what we had mentioned in the previous FXDailyDose of yesterday.
EUR/USD Bearish EUR/USD broke below the first resistance of 1.3524 which we had mentioned yesterday and touched 1.3547. We had indicated that if a break over 1.3524 takes place then a move towards 1.3565 can be expected. The current price action is finding a resistance at 55-day EMA. We still expect a drop but if there is a decisive break above 1.3560/1.3580 range then the short-term outlook will change from bearish to neutral. If resistance holds in the range of 1.3560/1.3580 then further fall will be expected towards 1.3340 to 1.3389 support zone.
USD/CAD Neutral Our outlook for USD/CAD remains same as what we had mentioned in yesterday’s FxDailyDose. The pair found resistance below the indicated 1.0495 and dropped from 1.0461. Current price action is finding support just over 22-day EMA. We will repeat what we mentioned yesterday that in case the support of 1.0398 fails then a downward move towards the support zone of 1.0320 to 1.0360 will be expected. We stay neutral.
AUD/JPY bullish AUD/JPY inched higher to 94.16. Our outlook stays same as yesterday. A break over 94.20 resistance should take it towards 94.60 to 94.85 resistance zone. The psychological pressure of 95.00 may bring some fall but as long as the support over 92.66 holds we expect a break over 95.00 sooner or later. Please check this AUD/JPY alert. The support at 92.66 is critical for this outlook. Any break below 92.66 may bring further fall towards the support zone of 91.40 to 91.80.
GBP/USD Neutral GBP/USD found resistance below 1.6120 as we had mentioned in yesterday’s update of FXDailyDose. Our outlook remains same that if this resistance holds then a drop towards 1.5894 to 1.5905 is expected. However if there is a decisive break over 1.6120 then further gains towards 1.6180 will be expected. The support at 1.5894 is critical and any break below that should bring deeper consolidations towards 1.5740 or more.
EUR/GBP Bearish Some more consolidation may come but resistance is expected in the range of 0.8444 to 0.8451. Our outlook remains bearish for EUR/GBP. If the mentioned resistance holds and if there is a break below 0.8374 then a retest of 0.8332 support will be expected. 0.8332 support is very critical and in case that does not hold then deeper decline towards 0.8225 or more may come.
EUR/AUD Neutral EUR/AUD should find support over 1.4124. This is not only the previous support zone but the price action is above 200-day moving average support. The current 200-day moving average is at 1.4077. In case there is a break below 1.4124 then a move towards 1.4077 may take place, however, we remain neutral.
USD/INR bullish Some more upward gains are expected but resistance should be faced at 62.94. If this resistance breaks then further gains towards the resistance zone of 63.57 to 63.65 should come.

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FX Daily Dose – November 6, 2013

November 6, 2013 in FX Daily Dose

FX Daily Dose

Currency pair Near-term Outlook Comments
USD/JPY bullish USD/JPY has again found resistance by 200-day moving average. The recent low did not test the previous low and a head and shoulder pattern seems to be forming on daily chart. Support is expected at or over 97.80 and if that holds then a break of 200-day moving average resistance is expected. Such a move should bring further gains towards 99.38 to 99.67 resistance zone. Do check the USD/JPY chart alert.
EUR/USD Bearish 1.3461 was the low of recent sideways move and hence a support level from where the pair had jumped to 1.3803. The recent break of 55-day EMA and this support has brought short-term bearish outlook. If resistance below 1.3524 holds then further consolidation may come towards 1.3340 to 1.3389 support zone. A break above 1.3524 may bring some more gains towards 1.3565.
USD/CAD Neutral USD/CAD is in a volatile sideways mode on daily chart. The weekly chart still has uptrend but the momentum is losing. Resistance near 1.0495 is critical. If this resistance holds and any break below 1.0398 support takes place then further drop towards 1.0320 to 1.0360 support zone can be expected.
AUD/JPY bullish The pair has been continuously finding support at 55-day EMA. This support combined with the fact that AUD/JPY had completed the 61.8% retracement of the strong upward gains from 74.47 to 105.43 indicate that we can see some further gains in the coming days. Please check this AUD/JPY alert. The support at 92.66 is critical for this outlook. Any break below 92.66 may bring further fall towards the support zone of 91.40 to 91.80.
GBP/USD Neutral We expect resistance near 1.6120 and if that resistance holds then we will expect GBP/USD to fall towards 1.5894 to 1.5905 support zone. The support at 1.5894 is critical and any break below that should bring deeper consolidations towards 1.5740 or more.
EUR/GBP Bearish EUR/GBP had failed just below 61.8% retracement of the fall from 0.8769 to 0.8332. Further downward move towards the first support in the range of 0.8374 to 0.8378 is expected. If this support fails then a retest of 0.8332 support will be expected. 0.8332 support is very critical and in case that does not hold then deeper decline towards 0.8225 or more may come.